JPicks
Pretty much a regular
103-76 (57.6%) +18.95 Units
1-1 Last night -0.10 Units
Well I'm hoping the short dip is over after the 18-7 run. I'd be more than happy to take a 3-4 over two nights if that's the drop I was worried about. I won't be around until Friday as I'm leaving town for business. May or not play anything while I'm out of town, but if I do it'll be posted via the crackberry and I'm not one to type a ton of shit on those things so don't expect any discussion from me. Have one that I really like for Thursday, but Killa got me worried that the line is going to be crazy. We'll see. Off to the races for Tuesday...
Hawks +6.5 -- Ya I'm not very happy they lost to the Grizzlies last night. Still play was made more on my high opinion of the Hawks more than anything else. Think it'll be a one possession game. Agree with BC about the under and I'm going to try and play it depending on the #. Sure the line won't be released until tomorrow late morning when Artest's status is known.
Orlando/Portland Under 187-- Didn't get it in before they took it down tonight, but hopefully it'll be up sometime tonight and I'll update the thread. Expecting a grinder of a game in this one.
Do like the Suns over a bit, but out of dogs, favs, overs and under the overs are the only thing I'm not positive on the year with so I'm trying to be a bit more selective.
Knicks/Bulls Over 213--Going to post what I put in the discussion thread as far as my thoughts on why I like the over. I know Tuck likes the under so I'll be interested in seeing his exact thoughts.
Last 3 meetings vs. Phoenix for the Bulls which does mean a bit more:
165 total points, 173 shots, 31 FT's, and 34 TO's. Teams shot 38% and Luol Deng and Bend Gordon missed it.
214 points, 173 shots, 51 FT's, and 29 TO's. Teams shot 46%.
219 points, 167 shots, 73 FT's, and 41 TO's. Teams shot 45%.
A ton of possessions. My point is the Bulls have had no problem in past years running with Dantoni teams and when you add in Derrick Rose it only increases that. They aren't the 5th fastest paced team for no reason.
Looking at the Knicks L10 games they have actually gone over this # three times as you missed Cleveland. They were one point shy of 213 @BOS and had they shown up @DET or @CLE they both would have cleared this # as well. I personally think the fact that they have gone under 4 straight creates the value in this play.
Home versus Detroit was just a weird game where they scored 65 in the 1st half but Detroit couldn't get anything going so the Knicks rested on their lead. If the Pistons and their terrible Sunday shooting had shown up in the 1st quarter that total would look awfully different. Still Knicks shot 47%, but were limited to 75 shots.
@ATL I give credit to the Hawks for playing defense like they did previous to Josh Smith's injury. Also the same reason I played the Hawks @DAL and tomorrow @HOU. Still Knicks with only 6 FT attempts and 17 TO's.
@CLE Nobody is scoring on Cleveland lately and the Knicks stunk up the joint. Pace was pretty good (especially considering the score) though as they combined for 168 shots, 40 FT's, and 42 TO's.
@POR Last game of Portland's 8 game under run. They got to 201 with about 30 less possessions than I expect to see in the Knicks/Bulls game. Neither team shot very good (44 and 41) but hit 21 3's and 36 FT's. Poor pace as it involved the Blazers, but still a decent amount of points.
GSW A flat out track meet. 263 points, 206 shots, 53 FT's, and 32 TO's.
The Knicks just need an opponent that will run with them as they aren't good enough to impose their will on another team. The Bulls at home will certainly play along. The best comparison for this one for the Bulls is the game vs. Indy on 11/15. They aren't quite as quick as the Knicks, but it will have to do. The scored 195 points but they also had 187 shots (shot 37% and 39%), 48 Ft's, and 28 TO's. That's only 24 less possessions than the Knicks/Warriors game that totaled 263 points and about a dozen more possessions than what the Bulls/Suns averaged last year in games that topped 214.
I don't know if any of that makes sense or if anybody will actually read it, but it further solidifies my feelings on the over. If the teams combine to hit 43% from the field this one will go over imo.
Detroit -4.5 -- If BAR and Tuck like it, I like it.
1-1 Last night -0.10 Units
Well I'm hoping the short dip is over after the 18-7 run. I'd be more than happy to take a 3-4 over two nights if that's the drop I was worried about. I won't be around until Friday as I'm leaving town for business. May or not play anything while I'm out of town, but if I do it'll be posted via the crackberry and I'm not one to type a ton of shit on those things so don't expect any discussion from me. Have one that I really like for Thursday, but Killa got me worried that the line is going to be crazy. We'll see. Off to the races for Tuesday...
Hawks +6.5 -- Ya I'm not very happy they lost to the Grizzlies last night. Still play was made more on my high opinion of the Hawks more than anything else. Think it'll be a one possession game. Agree with BC about the under and I'm going to try and play it depending on the #. Sure the line won't be released until tomorrow late morning when Artest's status is known.
Orlando/Portland Under 187-- Didn't get it in before they took it down tonight, but hopefully it'll be up sometime tonight and I'll update the thread. Expecting a grinder of a game in this one.
Do like the Suns over a bit, but out of dogs, favs, overs and under the overs are the only thing I'm not positive on the year with so I'm trying to be a bit more selective.
Knicks/Bulls Over 213--Going to post what I put in the discussion thread as far as my thoughts on why I like the over. I know Tuck likes the under so I'll be interested in seeing his exact thoughts.
Last 3 meetings vs. Phoenix for the Bulls which does mean a bit more:
165 total points, 173 shots, 31 FT's, and 34 TO's. Teams shot 38% and Luol Deng and Bend Gordon missed it.
214 points, 173 shots, 51 FT's, and 29 TO's. Teams shot 46%.
219 points, 167 shots, 73 FT's, and 41 TO's. Teams shot 45%.
A ton of possessions. My point is the Bulls have had no problem in past years running with Dantoni teams and when you add in Derrick Rose it only increases that. They aren't the 5th fastest paced team for no reason.
Looking at the Knicks L10 games they have actually gone over this # three times as you missed Cleveland. They were one point shy of 213 @BOS and had they shown up @DET or @CLE they both would have cleared this # as well. I personally think the fact that they have gone under 4 straight creates the value in this play.
Home versus Detroit was just a weird game where they scored 65 in the 1st half but Detroit couldn't get anything going so the Knicks rested on their lead. If the Pistons and their terrible Sunday shooting had shown up in the 1st quarter that total would look awfully different. Still Knicks shot 47%, but were limited to 75 shots.
@ATL I give credit to the Hawks for playing defense like they did previous to Josh Smith's injury. Also the same reason I played the Hawks @DAL and tomorrow @HOU. Still Knicks with only 6 FT attempts and 17 TO's.
@CLE Nobody is scoring on Cleveland lately and the Knicks stunk up the joint. Pace was pretty good (especially considering the score) though as they combined for 168 shots, 40 FT's, and 42 TO's.
@POR Last game of Portland's 8 game under run. They got to 201 with about 30 less possessions than I expect to see in the Knicks/Bulls game. Neither team shot very good (44 and 41) but hit 21 3's and 36 FT's. Poor pace as it involved the Blazers, but still a decent amount of points.
GSW A flat out track meet. 263 points, 206 shots, 53 FT's, and 32 TO's.
The Knicks just need an opponent that will run with them as they aren't good enough to impose their will on another team. The Bulls at home will certainly play along. The best comparison for this one for the Bulls is the game vs. Indy on 11/15. They aren't quite as quick as the Knicks, but it will have to do. The scored 195 points but they also had 187 shots (shot 37% and 39%), 48 Ft's, and 28 TO's. That's only 24 less possessions than the Knicks/Warriors game that totaled 263 points and about a dozen more possessions than what the Bulls/Suns averaged last year in games that topped 214.
I don't know if any of that makes sense or if anybody will actually read it, but it further solidifies my feelings on the over. If the teams combine to hit 43% from the field this one will go over imo.
Detroit -4.5 -- If BAR and Tuck like it, I like it.
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