12/7/08 Sunday NBA

[JPicks]

100-72 (58.1%) +20.45 Units


Went 7-1 last night and 18-7 L25 so going pretty cautious right now as a small dip is inevitable. Only looked at the early game in Toronto so far and never had time to peak at the Knicks, but it sure looks like the Pistons Sunday struggles continue. Weird.


Toronto/Portland Over 191 -- Stepping in front of the Portland under train, but I feel this is the perfect spot to take a stab with it being against the Raptors at home (6-2 O/U) and the last game of the road trip (defensive intensity could slip a bit). Both teams should clear 95.

 

[JPicks]

if u got the time,
What were your thoughts on 3rd q no? Also was atl and Utah bets just bets on phoenix's struggles?

3rd q no was pretty simple actually, but it takes a bit of time to find the quarter plays. I just look through the matchups section at covers and sort the home/away, Last 5, overall, in the statistics section and look at how the quarters evolve for teams. It's how I started playing Warrior 4th quarter unders, and pretty much every other quarter play. Tuck is really good at playing obscure quarters and he might have a different approach than what I use. As far as yesterday the hope is that the dog (Memphis) starts hot and wins the 1st or 2nd quarter so that the Hornets (who always come out hot after halftime at home) have to either take the lead in the 3rd quarter or blow open a game. Yesterday neither happened but their 3rd quarter magic still worked well as they pushed a 19 point lead to 29 points.

With ATL and Utah last night I simply bet both of them because I don't have a ton of respect for Dallas or Phoenix. Atlanta is finally back healthy and they were a machine early in the year. Trying to get on them now before they start pulling off the same run again. Them actually covering but losing last night was the best thing in the world from a gambling perspective. Still some value as they go and play HOU and SAS. Utah was dead even with PHX all night but eventually tired in the 2nd half of the b2b as they couldn't get out to shooters on the 3 pt line. Don't think PHX should be giving 7.5 points to any playoff team right now though.

 

[t-dot]

bol to us, hope it turns out better than Fridays total.

 

[tuck321]

Memphis did win the second quarter J and that is why it was fairly safe to bet against them in the third. They are much more stubborn in the third if they have lost both the first 2 quarters so you should make the third quarter bet at half time not before the game I believe. BOL

 

[JPicks]

Memphis did win the second quarter J and that is why it was fairly safe to bet against them in the third. They are much more stubborn in the third if they have lost both the first 2 quarters so you should make the third quarter bet at half time not before the game I believe. BOL

You are correct. It was just that the first quarter was such a domination and I would have liked to have seen Memphis win the 2nd by a larger margin to close to within less than 19 at the half. I don't have a book that allows me to play quarters at the half so I have to play them before the game starts and hope for the best.

 

[JPicks]

Pacers 1st Quarter +2--Indy averages 5 point wins in the 1st at home while Boston averages a 1 point loss. I'll take the 2 points.
Pacers 4th Quarter +1.5--- Tuck mentioned Boston 4th quarters awhile back and I had to give it a look. Have no idea why Boston sucks in the 4th quarter of road games, but they do. Close ones, blowouts, it doesn't matter. They have won two 4th quarters on the road all year and both were by 1 point. They get outscored by a 27.1 to 22.5 margin on average.

Leaning towards the Bucks in the nightcap. Maybe a 1st half play rather than game.

 

[Retburj13]

nice Hoav hit J

 

[tuck321]

4th one is the tough one J. Only 1 time this year have the Lakers failed to cover consecutive games. They did not cover the last game. Their next game is at Sac the day before they greet the Suns at home which seems to point to Sac ats. The Bucks have beaten them 3 of the last 4 games. In the 2 games the Bucks beat them at home the Bucks beat them solidly in both home fourth quarters which argues against a fouth quarter play on them.
Are the Lakers really this forgiving? They are not going to cover 1 game in 5 against the Bucks? If I was going to play the Bucks and I am not I would actually look at the second quarter.
More likely if I play the game I will consider either a simple lay with the Lakers, a first or third bet on the Lakers but might just end passing on the game.
Ruling out the lay of 13.5. Might be right but just too big a position. Will sit this one out I think or maybe end with a third quarter play. GL

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL with the Pacer plays, good start JP

 

[SportsNut]

Plays:

1st Quarter Bucks +4 +100 {Level 3}

Bucks +14 {Level 2}

Over 106 1st Half {Level 1}



:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Good Luck JPicks ! Go Pacers !

 

[JPicks]

Thanks Mike. Probably going to follow you on the Bucks. Just see this as a bad spot for the Lakers and they aren't playing their best defense. Actually going to ride the game over after much deliberation. Hope this gets me back to even rather than sending me to a 1-3 day.

Lakers/Bucks Over 208.5

As far as the Pacers go what can I say. They're a 7 point dog, I make two bets on them and lose both of them. Kind of saw this day coming after the last few. It is what it is.

 

[SportsNut]

The rough part about Quarter bets is they are either quick WINS or LOSSES . One thing I noticed about alot of the home teams who are usually dogged and perform well in 1st Halfs tend to be schizo bewteen the 1st Q and 2nd Q . They usually win ir lose one of the quarters badly so the quarter they win is also exaggerated . Thats why with Home pups play alot more 1st H then Quarters.

Playing 1st Q Milw because of the situation - 3game trip coming home for 1 game , etc but alo because LAL 1st Q at home they have not started fast but did so on the recent trip ...

Past history shows Milw always playing LAL tough ...think LAL has only pushed when laying pts vs Milw in the past 10 games otherwise dog rules from what I recall. Plus Milw is the KING pup on the road so far ....if we lose dont be suprised by a LAL 15 pt win cause thats MILW's M.O........

:cheers:

 

[tuck321]

A lot of bad luck there. Pacers did not make a basket last 5 minutes and then they just needed to get a rebound at the end. Honestly I think I made a mistake. The first quarter bet was a textbook play but maybe if I look at the situation I do better. Pacers are a reasonable team that just got mauled by Boston and have been made a real home dog. Very emotional game. Play the kiss system and just take the points and trust them to at least keep it close. GL tonight

 

[tuck321]

Some of that is not so clear Nut. Lakers last 5 at home first quarter 3-1-1. Bucks though had been a bad first quarter road team but recently have picked up considerably so--we see. GL

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Tuck playing the situation more then the trend .

 

[SportsNut]

The 1st Q and 1st H total sucked so lets try +5 Level 2

 

[SportsNut]

Backdoor wide open ! LA by 13 ....takes away all the pain just lose a tad on the game

 

[Retburj13]

Backdoor wide open ! LA by 13 ....takes away all the pain just lose a tad on the game

amen...Fucks walked in

nice day J

 

[JPicks]

Backdoor wide open ! LA by 13 ....takes away all the pain just lose a tad on the game

Very nice. Glad I got the 2nd half over in to save my day a bit.