12/22/08 Monday Plays

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
134-109 (55.2%) +15.15 Units
2-0 Yesterday up 4.00 units. It felt good to get the big one I have to say. Was planning on the day off, but well you know. Wednesday will have to work. :)

Played two so far and will likely be adding tuck's 1st quarter under or the Kings just not sure which yet and the Nets ML/spread shortly before tip.

Nuggets -2.5 -- Wish I was around for the +1. Huge overreaction to Carmelo being out. Under is also probably solid.

Clipps -2 - Haven't had time to look, but does anybody know Toronto's travel plans? I'd sue the league if I was them. 3 days off after this game before playing @SAC. Did the players get a couple days off before Christmas and fly to their respective homes? Does the team fly back together to Toronto? Do they spend Christmas in LA for 3 days for the hell of it? I'm seriously interested, but all options seem like huge distractions. Only the Clippers 3rd home game in 12 games and 5 days off after. Got blown out by 34 previous game and I think they rebuild a bit of momentum (had won 5 of 7) heading into the extended brreak.

Be back before the Nets tip.
 
Love you comments about that Denver/Portland game. I'm close to playing it for the same reason as you. I believe Denver surprises tonight. Good luck on all your plays.
 
Raptors will fly back home for Christmas and then out to Sacramento after the holidays. More specifically, A few will fly back to Toronto, others will fly back to their home towns and a couple will stay in LA.

I only played the Under 192 for the Raps game. Tough to know when they get out of this funk. Team is too talented to be the worst team in the league (the very well could be the worst team in the league as of today).
 
Do you like the over the Nets? 197.5

over 69% of the public are riding Houston here after their recent win at Minnesota as they covered the spread winning by 7 and the Nets home loss to the Heat. Keep in mind that the Nets were coming off a big win over the Mavs at home which was a big game for Devin Harris and company based on the recent trades these two teams just had. Of course, Devin Harris showed up and outshined kid by scoring 40+ points and having 13 assists in the process. As per this game, note that NJ comes off that tough loss and look to bounce-back here. The Nets have had no problem scoring points in particular when they have motivation coming off a previous loss. Also, when the Rockets get taken to the edge early and are in a competitive game, games go over. The last four of five have been such the case with the Rockets as for example the game against the Grizzlies in which they were an active dog went over, the game against the Twolves who for all intense purposes were an active dog at home went over, they were at GS where the game sailed over and of course, they were at Denver in an outright loss and that game too sailed over as the Nuggs were great competition that night. In that same spirit, the Nets will be great competitors tonight coming off such a loss. I'm not saying to bet against the Rockets here, but let's bet on the Nets to make this game competitive as the push this total over and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see an outright win for the Nets, but more importantly, we expect to see an over. Remember, we want 25 points in each quarter per team as that is the magic number to keep pace for the 200 mark. The over is 4-0 for the Rockets when they are favored by this margin on the road and the over is 7-3 for the Nets following an ATS loss

im not sure tho
 
Like NJ, likely my only play today.

Is Denver -2.5 a huge overreaction? Yesterday night I saw Denver -3 and thought that it was low esp with denver being off 3 losses and 1st game of a home n home. Didnt play it, and then i saw +1? saw melo was out, and thought that was still ridiculous value, but I still didn't pull the trigger. as it is now (-2.5) not sure that is HUGE overreaction. I thought it shouldve been 5/5.5, but add in melo, 3/3.5 seems reasonable. decent spot for denver thoughm still undecided
 
You E said:
Do you like the over the Nets? 197.5

over 69% of the public are riding Houston here after their recent win at Minnesota as they covered the spread winning by 7 and the Nets home loss to the Heat. Keep in mind that the Nets were coming off a big win over the Mavs at home which was a big game for Devin Harris and company based on the recent trades these two teams just had. Of course, Devin Harris showed up and outshined kid by scoring 40+ points and having 13 assists in the process. As per this game, note that NJ comes off that tough loss and look to bounce-back here. The Nets have had no problem scoring points in particular when they have motivation coming off a previous loss. Also, when the Rockets get taken to the edge early and are in a competitive game, games go over. The last four of five have been such the case with the Rockets as for example the game against the Grizzlies in which they were an active dog went over, the game against the Twolves who for all intense purposes were an active dog at home went over, they were at GS where the game sailed over and of course, they were at Denver in an outright loss and that game too sailed over as the Nuggs were great competition that night. In that same spirit, the Nets will be great competitors tonight coming off such a loss. I'm not saying to bet against the Rockets here, but let's bet on the Nets to make this game competitive as the push this total over and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see an outright win for the Nets, but more importantly, we expect to see an over. Remember, we want 25 points in each quarter per team as that is the magic number to keep pace for the 200 mark. The over is 4-0 for the Rockets when they are favored by this margin on the road and the over is 7-3 for the Nets following an ATS loss

im not sure tho
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Some good thoughts there. My main problem with betting this over would be a matchup situation. If Artest is on Carter all game and Yao is slowing down Harris's ability to drive to the hoop this win needs to come on the defensive end. I can't argue with Houston's 11-4 O/U on the road though. Really no lean for me on the total, but I would be a bit worried about so much of the Nets scoring coming from two guys who can be accounted for by Houston.
 
SF_capper said:
Like NJ, likely my only play today.

Is Denver -2.5 a huge overreaction? Yesterday night I saw Denver -3 and thought that it was low esp with denver being off 3 losses and 1st game of a home n home. Didnt play it, and then i saw +1? saw melo was out, and thought that was still ridiculous value, but I still didn't pull the trigger. as it is now (-2.5) not sure that is HUGE overreaction. I thought it shouldve been 5/5.5, but add in melo, 3/3.5 seems reasonable. decent spot for denver thoughm still undecided
Click to expand...

The line at 2.5 isn't unreasonable at all. The +1 was. I like them either way, but was simply saying the +1 was the overreaction. Blazers are looking great this year, but they stil don't have a win on the road that impresses me other than maybe Orlando early in the year. Every other time they face good competition on the road they lose. W/out Billups I'd pass on a Nuggets team w/out Carmelo, but they still have a leader and weapons as of now. Think it's a short enough line to feel comfortable playing.
 
At BM right now

1st quarter under 49.5 -25c
2nd quarter under 49 -15c (normal juice)
3rd quarter under 49 -40c
4th quarter under 49-40c

Yet the game line stays at 197???? Interesting. Wanted to follow tuck's 1st quarter play, but not at -25c. With all the increased juice on the 2nd half I'm hoping for a first half total <95 and shoot for a middle. I'm assuming the 2nd half line will be somewhere around 96.5 based on the quarter #'s and juice. I would have played the 1st half under but obviously somebody with some cash really likes the 2nd half under so even if the 1st half gets blown up I still have the 2nd half to bail me out. If the opportunity presents itself to go for the middle I'll take my chances fading that money with no chance for me to lose anything. Not sure that all makes sense and if somebody thinks I've made a fatal flaw I'm all ears. Always trying to learn.
 
Good Luck today ...

Butting heads abit but just running with my gut here ..
1st Q Denver {Level1}
2nd Q Portland {Level2}
1st H Portland {Level1}
1st H Under @ LAC {Level2}

Leaning towards LAC 1st H and Tor 2nd H ....dont like LAC returning home after the brutal 4 in 5 spot they can lose then have a few days to get straight . if Tor loses kinda makes a bad situation worse ....probably a good 7 pt adjustment from the early season...who knows LAC could also crush them just easily ..

Just messing around I guess...:cheers:

 
Marlo Stanfield said:
J 2nd half lakers possibly?
Click to expand...

Absolutely not. The lakers are shooting 56% PERCENT and they are down 8. They've given up 8 offensive rebounds. Clearly this team is lost. I'd highly recommend staying away from that mess. Can they win? Sure, but you're playing with gas. This isn't one of those situations where one team was on fire and the other ice cold. 56% percent and down 8. PASS or play the Grizz.
 
JPicks said:
Absolutely not. The lakers are shooting 56% PERCENT and they are down 8. They've given up 8 offensive rebounds. Clearly this team is lost. I'd highly recommend staying away from that mess. Can they win? Sure, but you're playing with gas. This isn't one of those situations where one team was on fire and the other ice cold. 56% percent and down 8. PASS or play the Grizz.
Click to expand...

Just watching the scoreboard, thats all I really have been doing lately besides tailing a play here or there by you and bar....watching the NFL game.. can log back out of my account now.

I really don't see them losing here but if they do....
 
SportsNut said:
Good Luck today ...

Butting heads abit but just running with my gut here ..
1st Q Denver {Level1}
2nd Q Portland {Level2}
1st H Portland {Level1}
1st H Under @ LAC {Level2}

Leaning towards LAC 1st H and Tor 2nd H ....dont like LAC returning home after the brutal 4 in 5 spot they can lose then have a few days to get straight . if Tor loses kinda makes a bad situation worse ....probably a good 7 pt adjustment from the early season...who knows LAC could also crush them just easily ..

Just messing around I guess...:cheers:

Click to expand...


Still trying to figure out the day, but I'm going to dedicate a day of betting to you here soon. I think I'll make it Sunday the 28th before I take off for a week to New Orleans. I'm going to play a total or spread for every quarter of every game. Obviously not full units for every play, wow that'd be crazy. More likely a just for fun thread with 10 bucks on every play. Should be awesome. You find new ways to amaze me daily. I mean Denver 1st quarter, portland 2nd quarter, but you think the 2nd quarter is good enough to warrant an additional half time play on them? You kill me man. Love it though.
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Just watching the scoreboard, thats all I really have been doing lately besides tailing a play here or there by you and bar....watching the NFL game.. can log back out of my account now.

I really don't see them losing here but if they do....
Click to expand...

ya when it seems so easy.......
 
JPicks said:
Still trying to figure out the day, but I'm going to dedicate a day of betting to you here soon. I think I'll make it Sunday the 28th before I take off for a week to New Orleans. I'm going to play a total or spread for every quarter of every game. Obviously not full units for every play, wow that'd be crazy. More likely a just for fun thread with 10 bucks on every play. Should be awesome. You find new ways to amaze me daily. I mean Denver 1st quarter, portland 2nd quarter, but you think the 2nd quarter is good enough to warrant an additional half time play on them? You kill me man. Love it though.
Click to expand...

Balance bewteen stupid and genius ..

Just expected Den to come out strong minus Melo and with Port having the better 2nd unit and losing a tough one last year / last meeting to I believe a shorthanded DEN team figured they wouldnt win the 2nd Q by a few baskets...I debated not playing the 1st H ...

On that day prepare to have a headache ...:shake:

Good Luck ..:cheers:
 
damn the laker team...i have Mem tonite but still

those ass clowns are ruining an xmas play on my Celts
 
Retburj13 said:
damn the laker team...i have Mem tonite but still

those ass clowns are ruining an xmas play on my Celts
Click to expand...

I just want them to win so they can not be in a panic mode tomorrow. :cheers:


Thanks for the Raps travel plans t-dot. That's pretty brutal scheduling of the league.
 
Story of my 2008 . A lousy 3 minutes away before halftime with Portland looking good up 17-14 they go cold and lose the last few minutes 10-3..Difference bewteen 3-2 so far and 5-0 naturally I could have split had I simply went Den 1st Q and Port 2nd Q for even amounts but I like to make it more complicated I guess..

Rooting for the Nuggets now for you ..
 
FWIW only playing 1st H under Level 1 play , added LAC +1 Level2 1st H and Tor ML-120 full game {Level1} with the hope I can play Tor 2nd H .....gl
 
Bets4Bucks said:
Camby is out tonight for the clips
Click to expand...

appreciate it. checked all my sources for reasons on the big move, but found nothing. tried to check the pregame on nba pass but they don't put the feed up until 10 minutes before the game. That one hurts with Kaman also still out.
 
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