12/20/08 Stepping out day

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
132-109 (54.8%) +11.15 Units
2-3 -0.90 units yesterday.

Have to say that I'm in a bit of a funk right now. Making bad decisions left and right. Probably only playing one tomorrow and taking Monday off. I'd disappear until Christmas day except there is a spot that I love on Tuesday.

Atlanta Hawks -3.5 for 3 Units.

Might not be the greatest time of the season to step out like this, but everything seems perfectly aligned for this one. Funk or not I had to play this big. Not really interested in doing a big w/up on this, but there are numerous angles which make this play so attractive to me. Likely the only play I'll have on Sunday unless I find the courage to play the Thunder. Honestly will likely be playing the Thunder depending on what the line does overnight. May have to go the first half route.
 
Please explain a bit

I lean that way mainly just cuz I think pistons are overrated defensively and atlanta is a bit underrated, but cant find much more reason...

Detroit off a loss where they competed much better than I thought they wouldve
Atlanta off a win where they definitely didnt play that well
Atlanta in middle of long home stretch where I don't see this being necessarily a strong effort here, not saying it won't be, but don't see what suggests this will be
neither team with much sucky scheduling spot. Detroit with 1 day rest and 1 day rest after this. Is it fly to atlanta, come back home? not too strong
There is detroit's suckiness on sundays, but imo that isn't a legit angle on day of week. if anything I think it'll motivate Detroit not to lose today

again was thinking about playin atlanta strong, but definitely wanna see your thoughts on this one. not much sticks out to me. thanks
 
What gives you the right to make a 3-unit play without running it by your consultant first?

I'm insulted.
 
Yeah, this is sort of random, considering you almost never play more than one unit. What sort of secret angle did you cook up over there in Mormon-Land? I'm all ears, get me on AIM before this game tomorrow evening.
 
Since I'm on a roll here, aren't we getting a bit ahead of ourselves betting all these units on this game before we even know Ivy's opinion on it?
 
SF Capper, its true the Detroit Atlanta history is daunting. Atlanta has lost 2 games at home this year. Boston recently and NJ when Atlanta was playing 4th game in 5 nights. Detroit seems to be a team that finds it hard to concentrate. Wallace expecting to be leaving just is not focused much of the time. They tried very hard vs Utah based on revenge and were probably cheated by the referees. Sad but that is the world we live in. Meanwhile against over 500 teams this year Atlanta is 8-2 ats and Detroit is 4-5 ats so what are we supposed to do--?
To me it is not so much that it Sunday as it is a day game and they have been walking wounded in day games which is largely body chemistry giving us an extra chance. Plus seems like Detroit could be looking ahead to Chicago who they are 2-5 against last 7. At least thats my rational. GL
 
I guess if I'm going to make the biggest play of the year for me I should probably explain a bit.

I consider the Hawks one of the 4 best teams in the EC. They aren't on the level of Cleveland and Boston, but they've already proved that they can take the C's down to the wire and are a serious competitor. They've beaten Cleveland @home and won @Orlando. They're 11-3 ATS with Josh Smith in the lineup and continue to get no respect from the books. Consider ATL's last 8 games:

b2b 3 in 4 @Dallas They go into the 4th quarter down 15 and lose on a miss at the last second. Pretty good effort considering the spot.
@Houston Run into a pissed off Houston team who lost @Mem the night before. This is one of two games of theirs recently that I bet against them. Still they were down 11 in the 1st quarter and had a 2 point lead heading to the 4th. In the end they just had no answer for Yao Ming.
b2b @SAN Another tough spot, but the Spurs were also off of a b2b playing @DAL the previous night. Spurs were in a stretch of 4 straight covers and this is the one game that they didn't cover. Hawks lose by 6 and cover.
@MIA in the Hawks last game of a 4 game roadie. Win by 14 on the eve of playing the Cavs and it wasn't even that close. Hold the Heat to 38% shooting.
CLE Hold the Cavs to 41% shooting and do what nobody else, including Denver, has done recently which is hold down the Cavs. A great effort.
CHA A clear flat spot where I bet the Cats first half as a letdown was inevitable. Hawks go into half down 6 and come out and hold Charlotte to 31 2nd half points and win by 4. No cover, but a solid win considering the sandwich spot.
BOS A game that should have been a win if Johnson makes some free throws down the stretch. A lot of credit to Boston as they are the champs and proved it here. They still played Boston a lot closer than anybody else has accomplished. Consider that Boston went to Detroit and was up 20 heading to the 4th.
GSW The last of me attempting to fade the Hawks. 2-0 on previous fades, but I paid the price for trying to fade them whole game rather than 1st half like I did with previous plays. Down 2 heading to the 4th they hold the Warriors to 18 4th quarter points while scoring 36. Basically they have complete Boston hangover for 3 quarters and then snap out of it and destroy GSW. Not the greatest competition, but they have the ability to just own the game when they need to.

So ATL covers 2 of 3 in the texas triangle and somehow comes out of there 0-3 SU. They dispose of Miami easily on the road before playing a b2b against CLE and break Cleveland's 11 game winning streak. That games even more impressive after seeing Cleveland dispatch of Denver on the road.

So ATL is alternating their home games with some of the EC's finest. Detroit is the last of three big ones to come into town and ATL has the nice every other day trend going on which I always love. Great way to create some consistency and settle into a groove. Sure it's nice that the Pistons suck during day games, but that's just a cherry on top. I would have made this line closer to 5.5 and I expect the Hawks to win by 8+. The close win over Charlotte and the fact that they had to come from behind vs. GSW probably keep this thing being reasonable. Both of those games are horrible sandwich spots which make it easy for me to give them a pass on. They'll more than be ready for Detroit who they've lost to the last 4 meetings and 8 of 9.

A couple of other "random" angles that pushed this from a 2 to 3 unit bet have to do with BC's season trend thread. Home run is at 4-0 and one more favorite is needed for a fav run. If you follow his thread you'd see that this is a great spot to confirm two runs and it seems perfect. Probably enough for me to play a home fav regardless of anything else and in this scenario it's pushing a play that I love up one more unit.

In the end it's a big combination of me thinking the Hawks are undervalued, Detroit with their day game struggles, and BC's thread the largest part being the undervalued angle. To make things even a little better the Pistons have had a ton of success against the Hawks and probably don't see this game with the same importance as the Hawks. They do have a game against Chicago sitting on deck who they were 1-3 against last year.
 
alright nice writeup JP. Definitely can see this game as two teams going in opposite directions. I upped my bet a little bit, but prefer to make my biggest bets on teams that have the games circled in their calendars vs teams that are hungover. BOL to us though
 
like it jp...the sheed and tashaun are likely rolling out of some atlanta's strippers' beds as we speak lol
 
Well, its a cash. Detroit might be dangerous if they used machines as referees but 7-22 on free throws seems to be standard for them. We can use the money.:cheers:
 
By the way, what about the day before when Houston is at the Nets? worth thinking about.
 
Retburj13 said:
ATL winna

and AI benched....Detriot is one messed up team right now
Click to expand...

It's not the first game that AI has been benched down the stretch. They've been benching Hamilton, AI or Stuckey depending on who's playing well up to that point. All three guys will start, but won't finish out games together. I can't find the article that Curry talked about it, but I do remember reading it. Obviously AI isn't happy with the arrangement though.


tuck321 said:
Well, its a cash. Detroit might be dangerous if they used machines as referees but 7-22 on free throws seems to be standard for them. We can use the money.:cheers:
Click to expand...

When I saw Javie was working the game my stomach dropped. Closer than I wanted, but we'll take it.
 
tuck321 said:
By the way, what about the day before when Houston is at the Nets? worth thinking about.
Click to expand...

It is a great spot. Rockets have owned the Nets so it's pretty easy to see them looking past this one. LVSC has Houston as a 4 point fav so I'm pretty interested to see what they open as.
 
Right now I would lean no. That is not a final decision. Rockets know whats coming and this is a game they can win. Have to think much more about this one.
 
JPicks said:
It's not the first game that AI has been benched down the stretch. They've been benching Hamilton, AI or Stuckey depending on who's playing well up to that point. All three guys will start, but won't finish out games together. I can't find the article that Curry talked about it, but I do remember reading it. Obviously AI isn't happy with the arrangement though.




When I saw Javie was working the game my stomach dropped. Closer than I wanted, but we'll take it.
Click to expand...

oh i know Curry will do that, remember reading about it but still not a good sign
 
Makes me so made at myself. The first quarter bet on the Knick's is normally automatic after the team has been buried in the last game. I make it then I think more and realize the Celtics can be very serious today with D'Antoni. The referees are a nightmare for playing Boston and I hesitate and the game starts :hang:
 
tuck321 said:
Makes me so made at myself. The first quarter bet on the Knick's is normally automatic after the team has been buried in the last game. I make it then I think more and realize the Celtics can be very serious today with D'Antoni. The referees are a nightmare for playing Boston and I hesitate and the game starts :hang:
Click to expand...

Refs kept me off the game altogether. It's to bad the C's have a 4 game WC road trip coming up or I could see Rivers just letting them beat down the Knicks in the 2nd half like they did last year.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
The road team is 20-7 ATS in Thunder games this season - just something to think about.
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This stat is bothering me right now. Real close to pulling the trigger on the Thunder. I think this stat is due to the fact that they get DD's on the road and small #'s at home above all else. They love losing by 7-9 points. 8-3 ATS on the year getting DD's. Illgauskas probably isn't going to play big minutes off of the ankle injury. Cleveland off of LB's bday party and thrashing of Denver with Houston and Washington (think JayZ vs. Deshawn) up next. There is no way I can't play this.

Thunder +13.5
 
Hit Boston third minus 3 for a push and minus 5.5 for the second half. This may go on for a while. Allen has no real problem with the Suns. Garnett nd Pierce do. They just want to blast D'Antoni and the Knicks will have to improve a lot to play with them.
 
That game you like Tuesday. Will be a posted 3 unit play by me. Have seen a lot of angles there. If I was at Pinn I would move the spread to make it harder for a bigger payout. Just grab whatever they put up and bet it for LOTS. GL
 
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