12/15/2007

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
Not a great day yesterday, but it could have been much wose with the big loss by the Cavs. I've read alot on the forum about the game and the NBA, but I've got zero regrets about the play. It is a good reminder of MM though. There is never a single thing guranteed and that goes across all of life. If you're betting 10% or higher of your bankroll on a single play you have to be prepared mentally as much as anything to lose those bets.

Enough of all that. Not a terribly good looking card today, but not quite as bad as I thought at first glance. I've played the U186 in ATL and the Magic -12.

ATL is simply an under machine. The Cats defense has gone back to being bad again, but no worries as the Hawks aren't a team to hit the century mark. Expecting a 94-80 type victory for the Hawks. If a 5.5 shows up I may be backing them as well.

I've had the Magic marked as a play here since they lost their 2nd consecutive home game with a loss against the Hawks. They're back on the road for 3 of 4 and I'm really expecting them to give the home crowd a nice show. I may also add a 1st quarter play here on the Magic. We saw a really good preview of what Memphis is going to look like with Gasol out for possibly five games;

The Grizzlies were stymied by a franchise-record stretch of 10:38 in the second half where they did not connect on a field goal and managed only nine free throws. Memphis committed 25 turnovers.

And that's the reason this line is 12.5 at most shops now. Still a 108-88 final wouldn't shock me in the least.

Still looking at everything else. Really intrigued by the Magic/Pacers game.
 
$ management been my issue this season thus far. hitting smaller plays and torched on bigger plays (cavs last nite).

i already hit the UNDER 206.5 in the pacers/heat game .. what are ur thoughts?
 
bee--Honestly I like the over if anything. The Heat have given up 104 or more in 6 of 7 while the Pacers have never really cared about stopping people as much as they have about pushing the ball back down to the other end for quick baskets. With both teams off of recent low scoring outputs I could see them both boune back with 105+. My worry about any play in this game is how the Pacers back bounce from the 4th quarter yesterday vs Toronto. That was a complete meltdown by the Pacers. My strongrest lean for the game is the over though

Thanks marlo. GL to you as well.
 
yeah i ran thru the numbers of the last few games for both teams.. and my line of thinking was that most of the games that shot over 200 for miami has been on their last road trip..

miami home games are avg. 186
indy road games ave are 205

thinking if miami wants to win they have to slow the pace down and grind it out ..

GL today my friend...
 
thinking if miami wants to win they have to slow the pace down and grind it out ..


I thought about that same line of thinking and there's one problem with it. They didn't try to slow the pace with Suns or Warriors on the road and both of those were as important of games as today is. They actually had some good success pushing the ball at PHO and I wonder if they don't do it again today with the Pacers. All of which I call the game very intriguing.

Either way GL as I'll probably be a bystander.
 
Played the Kings as I'm not confident in the Wizards with a couple of PG's who don't have a ton of experience.
 
JPicks, whats your overall record as you seem to know your stuff...do you flat stake or use a unit based system?
 
Thanks McMug. Not really sure what my record is as I haven't kept one for the past 10 days or so. This was it about 12/5, 81-61 (57%) +15.78 Units, but I know I haven't hit that same percentage in the last 10 days. I use a flat bet system but I'm not opposed to stepping out in certain spots. I've had 3 2unit bets this year and 1 3 unit bet. So I'd say I flat bet, but it's not a really strict policy.
 
Magic D.....where the hell did it go?


No doubt Mike. I've got to learn to pass on spots that I have marked when they don't pan out the way I'd like to have had. Last night with the Nets losing prior game and today with the Magic laying a huge # during a clear period of a downward trend. Still no regrets though. Just another chance to learn from a mistake.
 
No doubt Mike. I've got to learn to pass on spots that I have marked when they don't pan out the way I'd like to have had. Last night with the Nets losing prior game and today with the Magic laying a huge # during a clear period of a downward trend. Still no regrets though. Just another chance to learn from a mistake.

u got the right attitude. will have a little bumps here and there, all a learning experience to try and avoid the same situation again. At least the under is looking solid :tiphat:
 
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