12/1/08 Tuesday NBA

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
79-62 (56.0%) +11.60 Units
9-13 ML's -2.75 Units


A forgettable day yesterday on multiple levels.


Knicks +7
Jersey -5.5
Jazz/Kings O209
Lakers/Pacers O212.5
Raptors/Nuggets O206.5
Dallas -11
Spurs -5
Sixers +3 --Was going to take the Bulls at -2 and get out of the bet until the ref info came out. 3 refs are a combined 13-27 ATS for the home team and 3-7 ATS to the home team as small favs. So going to let it ride.
ML Parlay Pacers/Knicks ML 50/878.10 Won't be in record, but thought it was worth a shot. Pacers are one team that can rebound with the Lakers and they beat Boston at home and took the Magic to OT.


Certainly looks like a square card to me. Was tempted to play every home team tonight as they're down 34 games ATS to road teams and have won 4 straight but passed. Still have 4 of them in there and will look to see if this run continues into tomorrow.
 
And I played the Bucks tomorrow at -3 along with every other person that posts on this forum. :)
 
Thoughts on Kings/Nugs today? Your boys just beat them by 20+ and now they open em as a dog? Fav @ Greek now, but thoughts?
 
Marlo Stanfield said:
Thoughts on Kings/Nugs today? Your boys just beat them by 20+ and now they open em as a dog? Fav @ Greek now, but thoughts?
Click to expand...

I didn't know they played. :tiphat:


I'd lean Jazz, but try to avoid betting on them. Deron says his ankle doesn't hurt anymore and it's just a mental battle. They did make the Kings look silly in a full on layup drill last time out so I'd expect a strong effort from Sacto. In the end I think the Kings play to bad of defense to stop a Jerry Sloan team that executes so well on offense.
 
Good Luck today .

7PM:
1st Half Pacers +5 (Lev2)
- Looked at Indy to date at home . In the 1st H when dogged or favored by 3 or less (choose 3 because essentially means the teams are equal could include 3.5 and 4s if applying for other teams but Indy had only -3) the Pacers were 5-0 ATS and 0-3 ATS when medium favs or big favs (NJN , Charlotte and OKC) . Now LAL away we dont include @ LAC because its the same building they trailed by 6 at half to Denver and Dallas . The only time they were dogged was +1.5 @ NOH which they led by 21. Then @ PHO they led by 6 which was good for a 1st H cover on a -4.5 line minus Barbosa .

1st Quarter Indiana +3 -115 (Lev1)

LAL is only +1.7 pts in the 1st Q and +3.1 in the 2nd Q but the 2nd H but +8.8 so far in 2nd H's. Indy is +2.7 in the 1st Q and -0.5 in the 2nd Q .

Mix in Indy had a couple days of to recoup after a real tough strecth where they blew more then a few games in the 2nd H . On 2 Days rest so far they are 3-0-1 ATS . Those 2 days rest games were @ Dallas , vs Orl , Atlanta , vs Boston . Which also happens to fit into how well Indy played as home dogs and small favs.

Indy 3-7 L10 could easily be 8-2 blowing 5 games Philly , Charlotte lose in OT , Orlando , @ Miami and @ Dallas .

On the total with Indy being more of a 1st H team and LAL more of a 2nd H team obviously for the side LAL looks real interesting if they losing ( down 5 ,6,7 would be great ) . However playing porrly in the 2nd H usually means reduced offense from most teams and with LAL their defense tightens up . So clearly if the OVER is attractive the 1st H seems to be the better angle with interest in the 2nd H under based on how that plays out combined with who is winning .

Just looking at the numbers this total seems way off imo at 214 . Tough to cover -9 but if they do and get 110-112 to 100 to 102 your going to come up a tad short ...Expect more LAL 107-100(expecting 205-210 pts)

UNDER 214.5 Full Game (Lev2)

Who knows what else but alot of the same leans but only game I finished so far . :cheers:





 
Also this is the HIGHEST LAL total all season . They have a game tmrw and so far in teh 3 earlier front ends of B2B's LAL is 2-1 UNDER with the over being a 106-99 game which is what I basically expect here .

Also this is INDY's HIGHEST posted total of the year (209 PUSH vs ATL ). Indy same situation as LAL has 2 home games both UNDERs and 2 road games both Overs ....
:shake:
Bumping the 1st Half and Unders to Max plays or Lev 3 (last under leg is 214 though )
 
SportsNut said:
Also this is the HIGHEST LAL total all season . They have a game tmrw and so far in teh 3 earlier front ends of B2B's LAL is 2-1 UNDER with the over being a 106-99 game which is what I basically expect here .

Also this is INDY's HIGHEST posted total of the year (209 PUSH vs ATL ). Indy same situation as LAL has 2 home games both UNDERs and 2 road games both Overs ....
:shake:
Bumping the 1st Half and Unders to Max plays or Lev 3 (last under leg is 214 though )
Click to expand...

Refs are 24-13 to the over including 8-1 on totals over 205.
 
Saw this just pop up on DBest.

12/02 4:04pm F Josh Howard Ankle is downgraded to doubtful Tuesday vs. LA Clippers

Line down to 10 on the info....
 
7:30

Washington Wizards +7 (lev3/max bet)

Washington 2 days off since their rally vs ATL fell just short and are 1-2 in Tapscott initial 3 games . Great for Washinton to have some extra prep time to get some practices in IMO. NJN was out WEST for a week or so and played 4 games in 6 days with Thanks Eve and Turkey Day off . So they return home off 1 day rest and being out West for week could throw them off a tad. Harris and Vince really put them on their shoulders past few games as well. Silly trend of the day 3-13-1 ATS is what NJ is on L17 Tuesdays ....said it was silly but better then the reverse . Look at the numbers for NJ at home before they left for the West only chalk was -3.5 vs LAC who was playing 3rd roadie in 4 days . Otherwise dogs tp Pacers w/o Harris but Granger absent as well, Cavs and tired and depleted Hawks. While this is what WASH was @ ATL and @ Miami . So thinking -4.5 maybe -5 is correct not -7 though ....dog rules the series 7-3 ATS L10 and two of those had fav wins laying only -3 and the other was a -6...

ML +250 (Lev1)

Total ? Lean Under but lost some value so going to play with fire and go NJ NETS TT Under 106 (Lev1)

1st H NYKs +4 +100 (Lev 2)

Not getting crazy with this but do like NYK. On some levels it seems like Port is overvalued here but when you go to Det as +4 dogs and win SU rather comfortably to me that says team is on the rise . Logically speaking this game should at best to me about -4 so something is up here IMO. The issue I see is NYK lack of defense and well Port's ability to play solid defense . NYK will not get easy shots here like GSW . last 4 games 90 , 68,85 and 86 points allowed . I wont take a NYK under . Again playing with fire here ...

NYK TT under 102.5 (Lev1)

:cheers:



 
8:30 PM:

Pistons 1st Half +3 ( Lev 2 )
Pistons 1st Q +1.5 (Lev1)
Spurs over 95 TT(Lev 2 )
Spurs 2nd H Lean if Det wins 1st H
Over 184.5 (Lev 1)
Over 92 1st H (Lev1)
Over 90 TT Det (Lev1)


Keep it short here . Det off a SU loss might have been loking ahead with SA ondeck and riding 4 straight wins . Despite having some practice time to get Parker and Manu more comfortable in the mix since rushing back think DET starts quick here . On defense the Pistons have allowed less then 95 just once past 9 games and that was home vs CLE who went ice cold in the 2nd H and landed on 89. On the road much of the same with only Char staying below 92 and the next closest was 93 with everything else 95++ ..so thats why the TT for SA and I said some practice should help the offense ...Think if SA wins it close to the closing number within 2 points of it so sat 7 or 8 pt wins ...if SA gets the basic 96-98 Det allows lets do the math . Say SA 97 for arguements sake and 7 or 8 pt loss puts DET at 89-90 which computes to 186 . Funny my worst case scenario is the opener .....if it wasnt these two teams squaring off perhaps a much stronger totals play.

Sixers +2 if 2.5 pops up again prolly buy it to +3-120(Lev 3 )
Sixers +1 1st Half (Lev1)

Probably the same reasons other have it on their schedule ---Home and Home where Philly just went ice cold for half the 3rd Q something like 14-0 to close it . Then the fact that was the end of the LONG Bulls road trip which with 1 days rest this is the 1st home game . If Philly cant win here I am done with them..

LAC @ Dallas looking for the injuries still with Gordon and Howard questionable and think camby is up to probable from questionable...was thinking Dallas had some payback . However the play I like is the OVER. Might be suprising by the injuries really dont change my opinion on the total ...

Over 199 Dallas (Lev2)
Over 101.5 1st Half (Lev 2 )

Raptors +5.5 (Lev 2)
Raptors +2.5 1st H (Lev2)
ML +200(Lev1)
Tor showing some improvement lately and Denver caught witha sandwich game as this middles Houston and SA. Nuggets also playing 5th in 7 spot with Melo banged up.....tired legs theory makes me think Over but not crazy about it. So....
Raptors TT Over 101 (Lev1)


Utah @ Sac = Injury fest both teams missing players and on2 days rest but looks like Kevin Martin will return but not start .

Under 103 or so 1st Half @ Sac (Lev 2)...:cheers:

Might be it might not be
 
JPicks said:
Refs are 24-13 to the over including 8-1 on totals over 205.
Click to expand...


Where do you get the ref info from? Have never used the ref stats believe it or not and Blankets seems to not always have it ..Thanks and GL. Sorry for the hijack ...:cheers:
 
Oh man, just came to check if you took Washington and you went the other way. That was a Killa-style play if there ever was one. Nets off three straight road wins, back home, one day of rest, having to get up for a 2-12 team who they've already beaten? Flat a spot as you can get IMO. This is why I say the NBA is unbettable though... why the fuck was DC only catching 5-6 points? 2-12, on the road, vs. a red-hot superior team, and they give you a hooked 5. Total bullshit, three years ago that line would've been like 7.5. Anyway, I really wanna know why you liked NJ bc that seems outta whack for how we approach games.
 
Killa said:
Oh man, just came to check if you took Washington and you went the other way. That was a Killa-style play if there ever was one. Nets off three straight road wins, back home, one day of rest, having to get up for a 2-12 team who they've already beaten? Flat a spot as you can get IMO. This is why I say the NBA is unbettable though... why the fuck was DC only catching 5-6 points? 2-12, on the road, vs. a red-hot superior team, and they give you a hooked 5. Total bullshit, three years ago that line would've been like 7.5. Anyway, I really wanna know why you liked NJ bc that seems outta whack for how we approach games.
Click to expand...

Worst play I've made all season and I made it on emotion after being pissed about last nights bets. Any more questions? :)
 
I had a couple of worsts today and so did the Craptors .

Just walked in took a shot at the UND 104 2nd H @ Sactown...
 
SportsNut said:
Good Luck today .

7PM:
1st Half Pacers +5 (Lev2) bumped to Lev 3 PUSH
- Looked at Indy to date at home . In the 1st H when dogged or favored by 3 or less (choose 3 because essentially means the teams are equal could include 3.5 and 4s if applying for other teams but Indy had only -3) the Pacers were 5-0 ATS and 0-3 ATS when medium favs or big favs (NJN , Charlotte and OKC) . Now LAL away we dont include @ LAC because its the same building they trailed by 6 at half to Denver and Dallas . The only time they were dogged was +1.5 @ NOH which they led by 21. Then @ PHO they led by 6 which was good for a 1st H cover on a -4.5 line minus Barbosa .

1st Quarter Indiana +3 -115 (Lev1)WIN

LAL is only +1.7 pts in the 1st Q and +3.1 in the 2nd Q but the 2nd H but +8.8 so far in 2nd H's. Indy is +2.7 in the 1st Q and -0.5 in the 2nd Q .

Mix in Indy had a couple days of to recoup after a real tough strecth where they blew more then a few games in the 2nd H . On 2 Days rest so far they are 3-0-1 ATS . Those 2 days rest games were @ Dallas , vs Orl , Atlanta , vs Boston . Which also happens to fit into how well Indy played as home dogs and small favs.

Indy 3-7 L10 could easily be 8-2 blowing 5 games Philly , Charlotte lose in OT , Orlando , @ Miami and @ Dallas .

On the total with Indy being more of a 1st H team and LAL more of a 2nd H team obviously for the side LAL looks real interesting if they losing ( down 5 ,6,7 would be great ) . However playing porrly in the 2nd H usually means reduced offense from most teams and with LAL their defense tightens up . So clearly if the OVER is attractive the 1st H seems to be the better angle with interest in the 2nd H under based on how that plays out combined with who is winning .

Just looking at the numbers this total seems way off imo at 214 . Tough to cover -9 but if they do and get 110-112 to 100 to 102 your going to come up a tad short ...Expect more LAL 107-100(expecting 205-210 pts)

UNDER 214.5 Full Game (Lev2)bumped to lev 3 LOSER

Under 106 2nd H (Lev 1 ) LOSER


Who knows what else but alot of the same leans but only game I finished so far . :cheers:
Click to expand...


Well the 1st H went basically as expected but at the end of the 1st and I mean end the darn Lakers went on a mini run , Mr. Danny Granger though stopped the moose with a moose of his own.

Well the end of the 2nd Q the exact same thing happened . Tie game not much time left and suddenly LAL cant miss . Again saved by the bell though at least for the PUSH.

Total well I fell for the bait and the reason the total was HIGH was because my dumbass to didnt understand the impact of the refs here . Rookie mistake by someone who isnt a rookie . teams get to the line alot o begin with and were about 20+ on there game avgs . Which is a good free 15 pts . Time to pay attention to the REFS !

Worse was the 2nd H play uhm forced decision . LAL up 5 well how come I didnt play them 2nd H ? Actually simple because they positioned themselves to win the 1st Q and Moosed , the posistioned themselves to win the 1st H and Moosed . So a game heavily on LAL action it just seemed to obvious to play LAL and LAL backers were already getting bad breaks so passed . Said Indy might actually win this game or cover at least . Thats the problem with the under . If the home team is trailing and you expect them to play well in the 2nd H dont play the under . Always look to play the OVER its just logical IMO.

1st Q Won
1st H Pushed(max play)
Total LOST (max play)
2nd H Total Lost

Fairly solid job would have been great if I didnt fall the sucker bet on the total ! :shake:
 
SportsNut said:
7:30

Washington Wizards +7 (lev3/max bet)

Washington 2 days off since their rally vs ATL fell just short and are 1-2 in Tapscott initial 3 games . Great for Washinton to have some extra prep time to get some practices in IMO. NJN was out WEST for a week or so and played 4 games in 6 days with Thanks Eve and Turkey Day off . So they return home off 1 day rest and being out West for week could throw them off a tad. Harris and Vince really put them on their shoulders past few games as well. Silly trend of the day 3-13-1 ATS is what NJ is on L17 Tuesdays ....said it was silly but better then the reverse . Look at the numbers for NJ at home before they left for the West only chalk was -3.5 vs LAC who was playing 3rd roadie in 4 days . Otherwise dogs tp Pacers w/o Harris but Granger absent as well, Cavs and tired and depleted Hawks. While this is what WASH was @ ATL and @ Miami . So thinking -4.5 maybe -5 is correct not -7 though ....dog rules the series 7-3 ATS L10 and two of those had fav wins laying only -3 and the other was a -6...

ML +250 (Lev1)

Total ? Lean Under but lost some value so going to play with fire and go NJ NETS TT Under 106 (Lev1)


WIZARDS: To me this is as good as it gets . NAILED IT ! Only drawback really wanted to play that TT under 106 for more but was concerned about pissing away such a strong play if the ML and TT loss it would be aggravating to be vigged out thanks to that TT....


1st H NYKs +4 +100 (Lev 2)

Not getting crazy with this but do like NYK. On some levels it seems like Port is overvalued here but when you go to Det as +4 dogs and win SU rather comfortably to me that says team is on the rise . Logically speaking this game should at best to me about -4 so something is up here IMO. The issue I see is NYK lack of defense and well Port's ability to play solid defense . NYK will not get easy shots here like GSW . last 4 games 90 , 68,85 and 86 points allowed . I wont take a NYK under . Again playing with fire here ...

NYK TT under 102.5 (Lev1)


Again solid job as Portland is playing good defense and maybe should have sacked and played the game under . This is called gambling for a reason after all . Knicks blew it in the 2nd H no suprise but a tad suprised it pushed and won for most rather then pushed and lost for most. NYK is going to have trouble in the 4th quarter with Crawford and Randolph gone until they develop some comfort in other go to guys. Plus someone who would be counted in the stretch run was Nate Robinson and he is out.

So far so good overall...
:cheers:
Click to expand...

Recap..
 
SportsNut said:

Here is my flaw often many days . Losing one game badly and usually because I rushed as time was limited. Rushing to get this done and go play hoops cant say I quite crossed the T's and Dotted the I's like I did on the earlier games. No excuses its the simple truth . The plays may or may not have changed but maybe the risk or how they were played could have been....

I saw the line move on the Pistons game and immediately knew I was playing Det . Unfortunately I just picked the wrong approach as they won SU . Neither team is what is was or is perceived to be at the moment . Essentially making -4 correct saying they are equal IMO.

Pistons start slow lose the 1st Q by 5 and are down 5 at the half 45-40 . That makes me a quick 0-3 losing 1st Q and 1st H plus 1st H over and not by much .

So 2nd H Det wins 49-32 and I cant explain how SA scored just 32 points . Sad part is pegged Det on 89 or 90 points and I still lost and lost the TT over 90 !



8:30 PM:

Pistons 1st Half +3 ( Lev 2 )
Pistons 1st Q +1.5 (Lev1)
Spurs over 95 TT(Lev 2 )
Spurs 2nd H Lean if Det wins 1st H
Over 184.5 (Lev 1)
Over 92 1st H (Lev1)
Over 90 TT Det (Lev1)


Keep it short here . Det off a SU loss might have been loking ahead with SA ondeck and riding 4 straight wins . Despite having some practice time to get Parker and Manu more comfortable in the mix since rushing back think DET starts quick here . On defense the Pistons have allowed less then 95 just once past 9 games and that was home vs CLE who went ice cold in the 2nd H and landed on 89. On the road much of the same with only Char staying below 92 and the next closest was 93 with everything else 95++ ..so thats why the TT for SA and I said some practice should help the offense ...Think if SA wins it close to the closing number within 2 points of it so sat 7 or 8 pt wins ...if SA gets the basic 96-98 Det allows lets do the math . Say SA 97 for arguements sake and 7 or 8 pt loss puts DET at 89-90 which computes to 186 . Funny my worst case scenario is the opener .....if it wasnt these two teams squaring off perhaps a much stronger totals play.



Sixers +2 if 2.5 pops up again prolly buy it to +3-120(Lev 3 )
Sixers +1 1st Half (Lev1)

Probably the same reasons other have it on their schedule ---Home and Home where Philly just went ice cold for half the 3rd Q something like 14-0 to close it . Then the fact that was the end of the LONG Bulls road trip which with 1 days rest this is the 1st home game . If Philly cant win here I am done with them..

Sixers much like Wash just fade teams off long ass road trips in game #1 ! Even more so if they are suprisingly successful like NJ win games as fairly sized dogs SU ...still Sixers unimpressive win in OT but led most of the way that I noticed..

LAC @ Dallas looking for the injuries still with Gordon and Howard questionable and think camby is up to probable from questionable...was thinking Dallas had some payback . However the play I like is the OVER. Might be suprising by the injuries really dont change my opinion on the total ...


Over 199 Dallas (Lev2)
Over 101.5 1st Half (Lev 2 )


No real complaints wasnt around earlier so really couldnt have gotten the better number . Had the wosre number and lost by 1 pt and that was after winning the 1st H by a half point...Sucks to lose by 1 pt when no one scores last 40 seconds but its how a close game can play out ...

Raptors +5.5 (Lev 2)
Raptors +2.5 1st H (Lev2)
ML +200(Lev1)
Tor showing some improvement lately and Denver caught witha sandwich game as this middles Houston and SA. Nuggets also playing 5th in 7 spot with Melo banged up.....tired legs theory makes me think Over but not crazy about it. So....
Raptors TT Over 101 (Lev1)

The game I felt I rushed the most and look what happened ...I cant believe Tor got crushed like that . I was iffy seeing O'Neal was returning because liked Tor's play w/o him but never expected this . Hell if you can get 90+ shots off and you dont break a 100 what can you do ! Only good thing was I did wind up adding the game over for a minor play just before I left . Still doesnt do much for the overall game ideas or defecit



Utah @ Sac = Injury fest both teams missing players and on2 days rest but looks like Kevin Martin will return but not start .

Under 103 or so 1st Half @ Sac (Lev 2).

Kept it simple because it was s imple decision although couldnt decide to play the game total or not . Hoped to be home by tip but wasnt . Just saw two depleted teams with a high scoring history . Sac has actually been lower scoring at home and really expected only 95 ish pts from them ...100-95 type game ...

Under 104 2nd H (Lev1)

Cant lie PURE ACTION PLAY for me . Couldnt figure the side so why not try another under ??

..:cheers:

Might be it might not be
Click to expand...

That was my day in the NBA....:shake:
 
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