11/4/08 NBA CTG General Discussion Meltdown Day

JPicks

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
17-9 +7.30 Units
3-3 ML's +1.10 Units

The Magic bench (20-47 points) are who we thought they were and the Clippers are a bit worse than even I expected. Everything else went as scripted.

Only one play for Election Tuesday as of now:

Houston/Boston Under 178
Rockets -2'
Suns/Spurs ML Parlay 1 to win 1.11

Probably my favorite two teams to meet up on an under. In a season filled with unders to date this would be the mecca. Hopefully I can get a 72-68 final as the final icing on the cake on one of the greatest under runs to start a season out. Expecting either team to get to 90 here is crazy imo.

Other leans/thoughts

Spurs -points. Number one problem with this is that even when they do beat the Mavs they tend to do so by 2 or 3 points and the Mavs got emberassed tonight so it makes the play a bit less attractive. Still hard to see the Spurs going 0-3, but one of the worst mistakes a guy can make is riding a sinking ship down. Are the Spurs a sinking ship?

Suns/Nets 1st game of a 4/5 for the Suns and don't be surprised to see some limited minutes for Nash/O'Neal. Porter has already stated that he doesn't want Shaq to wear down early in the season and it's hard to say whether he'll play extended minutes vs. Jersey or Indiana. He played 30 minutes versus the Spurs, front end of B2B, and only 22 versus the Hornets on the back end. Does Porter switch it up based on matchups or just stay the course of the first b2b this year? Hard to say but the over may be attractive as the Suns have fought thru the early unders in the league this year as people expect them to be a much slower paced team while the run-n-gun is still built into their personality. Watching a bit of the Suns game the other night you could easily tell that they still have a bit of D'Antoni's offense ingrained in them. Still hard to expect them to run with it being the first of a 4/5.
 
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nets dont have an inside game so i like that matchup more but indy is where the real challenge will be for suns.
 
V.Nice start to the season, JP. I expect Houston to score 80, wouldnt be suprised if they grab 90+. No fan here of Boston on the road this season.
 
Im on the total, but I am leaning more Houston than Boston if I had to make a choice.

NJ/Phx: id probably be looking at some 1Q or 1H play. 4/5 so, bust out to an early lead and let the starters get some rest.
 
brewer said:
nets dont have an inside game so i like that matchup more but indy is where the real challenge will be for suns.
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Agreed, but does Porter change his rotation with Shaq and play him 20 minutes on the front end of the B2B and heavy minutes the 2nd game? Sit back and watch I guess.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
V.Nice start to the season, JP. I expect Houston to score 80, wouldnt be suprised if they grab 90+. No fan here of Boston on the road this season.
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Thanks BC. I can handle Houston getting to 90 as long as they play some defense on their way there. Interested to hear your thoughts about Boston on the road this year. Is that a motivation thing in your eyes?
 
t-dot said:
Im on the total, but I am leaning more Houston than Boston if I had to make a choice.

NJ/Phx: id probably be looking at some 1Q or 1H play. 4/5 so, bust out to an early lead and let the starters get some rest.
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I'd have to do some digging around on that 1Q/1H idea, but it sounds logical. That's probably something really good to look into with the right database. 1H's of the first game of a 4/5. I'll actually pull up last year's schedule that I have marked out with scheduling spots and see how that panned out

SF_capper said:
nice start to the season JP
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Thank you sir.
 
Well I, or maybe the forum, just talked me into a 2nd play.

Rockets -2'

Measuring stick type of game for the Rockets. A bit of revenge from last year and they leave for a 5 game roadie that includes trips to LAL, PHO, and SAN. This is a huge game for the Rockets and it's the type of game that they can use to springboard them into the NBA elite discussion.
 
Hmm... don't see the Celtics looking past the Rockets here... Rockets wins this season all vs. bad teams. Yes, the Mavs are a bad team right now... see last night. Grizzlies? Were tied with them late.

Rockets stinking it up from 3 this year, and winning by only 12 vs. OKC? Shooting 36% vs. THEM?! The worst team in the league? On both sides of the ball? Game was a 6 point game after 3.
 
So far Houston is hitting 3's at 35% and giving up 3's at 12%. Boston is hitting them at 21% and giving them up at 24%. Do expect both teams to get better. GL
 
LAC definetly suprisingly bad so far . I actually think having Baron and Camby was a huge negative last night . I dont think I can provide an accurate answer why but ist sort of the other end of the spectrum involving injured players . One of my fav angles developed back in the days at "Blankets" was playing ON teams with injured stars/starters that had the lines reduced or adjusted . Perfect example of a shorthanded team was DET last night . I loved CHAR at +6 but the whole situtation changed when they made the trade. So I decided after back and forth all day to just ride out CHAR 1st H as they were pretty solid at home LYR in 1st H dog plays. Anyway waited and got the worst number +1.5 and of course they trail by half at two pts ! Ughh! Of course I couldnt get myself to play DET -3 even though I knew it was the right play and even when presented at half with aboyther opportunity to do so. Anyway this ties into LAC because Baron was expected OUT and Camby was a G/T decision but really no strong view on if he would play . So last minute those guys suit up and again they entirely change the situation. Some might think okay but how is getting 2 quality players back a negative ? Well it just changes the teams mindset . Shorthanded teams play with a chip on their shoulder to prove something . I think getting back injured players might lead to some complecancy but also usually you have two players less then 100% health wise and almost definetly less then 100% in sync with the rest of the team. So your really losing value in the spread for players who arent what they seem to be . Like fading pitchers off the DL in baseball. Many times you pay a price that is equivalent to what you would as if they weer 100% .

So I thinj jury is still out on LAC and one good thing is public perception is always formed EARLY . So when teams get it together alot of times they see their intial opinion and not the current form. Same with teams that start fast . Look at the Broncos in ur neck of the woods as a team who suprised early and continually were bet like that team on weeks 1 and 2 despite being something drastically different. So if LAC can now stay healthy and maybe play a stinker or two more before they get going we could have alot of value in them.

Getting to that Suns game for a second they are going to be interesting to watch. I know a sportswriter remarked asking Steve Nash to slow down and not improvise and play a more structured offense is basically taking away all his strengths . Think on YSports read about how Raja Bell was thinking about every shot he took , as in good or bad time to shot or does coach Porter want metaking this shot . So definite transition period for them. Always tough to teach an old dog new tricks . Lots of old dogs in PHO as well and the emphasis on defense is nice but again someone remarked that you still have some key SUNS liek Nash and Amare who cant play defense.

Interesting stat in the NYPost . Amare played NJ and the Yi Jinlan Bucks twoce each LYR . He went 41-55 from the floor !!!! Dropping 27.5 pts and 11 boards on avg ! Mix in Shaq and Boone and Yi have some work to do ......

In regard to SA hard to say SA is more off a sinking ship then Dallas . They lost by 1 @ Portland which is a solid team and 5 at home to PHO while Dallas has been embarrassed really by Houston and Cle while struggling to win @ Minny who is not as good as Portland IMO (plus Port was off a bad opening game). Good point about DAL playing them tough recently might look nto a SA ML parlay or teaser possibly(but I dont recall do many NBA teasers prefer ML parlays).

Hard to disagree with either Houston play . I do lean Boston but the point about it being more important to Houston is well taken and I just may pass or wait till halftime. The only concern with the under might be a close game which sees alot of late FTs and extending of the game . So might look at 1st H under or 1st Q unders..

BOL as always !:cheers:





 
100% agree that Baron and Camby was a downer last night. I was pissed when I saw them in there. Beyond the mindset of the team that got the players back, Jazz players have been hearing all week that while they're 2-0 they've beaten teams w/out their star players (Den/Carmelo, Clipps/Davis&Camby) So their mentality goes from we just beat these guys by 20 to, hey here's a chance to beat a team at full health. Just a crappy situation.

Do love the idea, and tucks has mentioned this as well, of the Clippers figuring it out at some point here in the future and having a ton of value with them.

Good thoughts on tonights games. Much appreciated. Thinking about locking in a Suns/Spurs ML bet as it pays 1 to 1.11. Don't trust either team to cover, but do expect both to win.
 
Inspekdah said:
Hmm... don't see the Celtics looking past the Rockets here... Rockets wins this season all vs. bad teams. Yes, the Mavs are a bad team right now... see last night. Grizzlies? Were tied with them late.

Rockets stinking it up from 3 this year, and winning by only 12 vs. OKC? Shooting 36% vs. THEM?! The worst team in the league? On both sides of the ball? Game was a 6 point game after 3.
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It's not that I expect the Celtics to look past the Rockets it's more or less who really needs it. The Celtics have nothing to look to beyond the Rockets unless their thinking about Sunday already and I have no doubt that isn't the case. Look at it this way: If the Rockets win this game it has a great chance of being the first item on Sportscenter tonight. If the Celtics win it'll show up somewhere else in Sportscenter. This is the new look Rockets best chance to make a splash as a legit title contender. An extra benefit is that they have a brutally tough 5 game road trip to go on after this and could really use the W.
 
weird i actually have the same ML parlay haha didnt think anyone else would. glad to be on the same thing! also have the under as well, hard to pick a side imo
 
Good Luck Jeff . Was going to play Suns 1st H -3.5 but went OTB before I could at my book. Have over 102 1st H and 201 game though .

Going to play SA -4 as well . Not sure of anything else yet but took a small stab on a Prop in the Houston game . Went KG +4.5 pts + rebs vs Yao Ming @ -140 . Ming didnt shoot well in the game last year and never really has vs Boston in the past . Factor that with his 2 home games being subpar I thought it was worth a small shot .

Did change my mind on the 1st H Under at Houston no longer like that just to obvious IMO .

About to play hoops myself so wont make till bit later ! BOL
 
What a welcome change from my previous "home forum"

I'm on the other side of your Suns play for a small play and I played the Spurs total under 188

I look forward to talking some shop here.
 
Welcome aboard, Patrick.

JP - Teams simply don't repeat these days. What the mighty Spurs couldn't manage this Boston outfit isn't going to. They'll still have a home fortress where they'll record enough results to get a decent enough seeding for the playoffs, but with the tag defending champs bringing out the best in their opponents, the road is going to be rougher on overused & old legs this season than it was last. For starters Indiana doesn't manage what they did to them a couple of days back if this was last season (when they went 32 games before suffering their first 9+ point loss). They're def. going to miss Posey.
 
lungster said:
weird i actually have the same ML parlay haha didnt think anyone else would. glad to be on the same thing! also have the under as well, hard to pick a side imo
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Nice. I'm not one to typically play ML favorite parlays or any for that matter, but it's a special evening so what the heck. Liked both favs but not with the points.

SportsNut said:
Good Luck Jeff . Was going to play Suns 1st H -3.5 but went OTB before I could at my book. Have over 102 1st H and 201 game though .

Going to play SA -4 as well . Not sure of anything else yet but took a small stab on a Prop in the Houston game . Went KG +4.5 pts + rebs vs Yao Ming @ -140 . Ming didnt shoot well in the game last year and never really has vs Boston in the past . Factor that with his 2 home games being subpar I thought it was worth a small shot .

Did change my mind on the 1st H Under at Houston no longer like that just to obvious IMO .

About to play hoops myself so wont make till bit later ! BOL
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Hope your hoops game went good!! :36_7_2: (always wanted to use that little guy)

Patrick_Bateman said:
What a welcome change from my previous "home forum"

I'm on the other side of your Suns play for a small play and I played the Spurs total under 188

I look forward to talking some shop here.
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Nice to have you here PB. Definitely a lot of good info that is exchanged on this site. Can't imagine being anywhere else. GL on your Spurs total.

BetCrimes1984 said:
Welcome aboard, Patrick.

JP - Teams simply don't repeat these days. What the mighty Spurs couldn't manage this Boston outfit isn't going to. They'll still have a home fortress where they'll record enough results to get a decent enough seeding for the playoffs, but with the tag defending champs bringing out the best in their opponents, the road is going to be rougher on overused & old legs this season than it was last. For starters Indiana doesn't manage what they did to them a couple of days back if this was last season (when they went 32 games before suffering their first 9+ point loss). They're def. going to miss Posey.
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Thanks BC. Agree completely. I think there will be plenty of spots to play against them on the road this year. Of course they came out on a mission tonight it seems.
 
Of course they came out on a mission tonight it seems.
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If tonight hadn't been basically straight on the heels of that Indy loss, I'd have made my 1st NBA bet this season. They get relatively few road games (11) to home games (19) before Xmas Day, which then kicks off a 20 vs 10 stretch into late Feb., with a couple of toughies right before & just after the ASB. I'm thinking that'll be the period where these guys truly come down to Earth.<!-- / message -->
 
I can not believe that NJ just put up a 9 point quarter and i lose the over by .5. i fucking despise vince carter.
 
goagainstme1 said:
I can not believe that NJ just put up a 9 point quarter and i lose the over by .5. i fucking despise vince carter.
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Oh that was one of the worst beats ever !!!! It wasnt enough I missed playing Pho 1st Half , that I wasnt home at half to take the 2nd H under or the fact that I CALLED the max points in the game 20-6-208 range . These assholes were 87-77 with 3 to play in the 3rd quarter . We needed 37 points in 15 minutes vs a PHO team who empties the bench and doesnt care . Nets score 9 pts in the last 15 minutes of the game ! Fucking sick to lose this game and watch the LEAFS come back down 4-1 early to lose in OT.

I am 1 lousy point and the Spurs game from a HUGE nite . Which I actually wound up taking Over 1st Q Houston and 1st Half with a 1/2 unit on the game total and even had a small Dallas 1st H play . Shit always puts me on tilt .....fucking 9-2 to start the evening and thats how I lose always seems to fuck my pending plays.....so aggravated as you can tell......:cheers:

Add Starks 62 yd TD run with 2 to play @ Buffalo to my painful loss list . Had to sweat out the under/Buff teaser as well....3 losses all in incredible fashion and 1 just should have known better loss with the Mavs
 
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