11/26/08 Wednesday NBA

[JPicks]

59-47 (56%) +8.10 Units
9-11 ML's -0.65 Units

3-3 Last night with the Cleveland over costing me two of those losses. Done with the ML's although I'm planning on doing some tracking of them over the next month or so. Probably would have made a bunch of cash early in the year when the Dogs were winning SU more often, but it seems like that isn't happening at the moment. Still worth tracking imo.

Have barely scratched the surface with the card today but I have one that I love: (posted the Under 209.5 in the Knicks/Pistons game in yesterday's thread but played out of it after watching the Knicks defense last night so it's not included)

Blazers -7 -- Let's take a look at the Blazers schedule for a second:

8 of L9 have been on the road, 3 home games, 5 more on the road back east. This will be their 2nd home game (of the 3 home games) and they failed to cover the first and should have lost SU against SAC. They have the Hornets next after a days rest and then their road trip includes games at BOS, DET, and TOR. This will be the first time POR will have played two consecutive home games since early November. Beyond the Blazers being able to finally relax at home the Heat have some travel issues.

Tough break for them and really a BS move by the league to make them play a home game against Houston on Monday night and then travel to the northwest on one day's rest. The game tonight essentially starts at 10:00 their time and keep in mind they haven't left the east coast since November 7th and this is their first trip west of Texas. And just as a bonus they're missing Marion tonight and have Phoenix on deck. The same Phoenix that Marion was traded from. Doubt we'll see a huge effort from the Heat tonight.


I'll be adding as the day goes on being that I have nothing else planned for this afternoon other than a little of this :cheers: later.


Houston/Indy Under 193
Bobcats/Raptors U186
Bucks/Hawks Over 194
Pistons -13 --Plenty of thoughts on the forum about this one.

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL tonight JP - havent looked at the games tonight but ill be rooting for ya

 

[ddk997]

GL bro

 

[Marlo]

J on this one as well. Miami really has no answer for the Portland Big's. Rebounds for Miami should be minimal

Also playing
The over under you in Det, Phx, Indy 1st quarter

 

[broadwayjoe]

on blaze as well...gl jp.

 

[JPicks]

Houston/Indy Under 193 -- Rolling with some BC stats on this one as Houston doesn't do 4 overs in a row. 7-3 to the overs on the road but just 1-4 @home. Battier is back which always helps on the defensive side, but not sure how many minutes he goes. TMac being out doesn't mean much to me. Really tempted to play the Rockets in this one as well but I'll pass. Don't see Indy threating Houston much.

 

[JPicks]

Bobcats/Raptors Under 186 -- Simply put the Bobcats are playing in this game and the Raptors coach is on the verge of getting canned. Raptors are 6-0 the over at home this year but are only 2-4 SU. Toughest practice of the season two days ago and I'm sure by toughest they weren't practicing their jump shots. If your coach wants you to play better defense I'm not sure there is a better opponent to face up against than Charlotte. Another 88-79 game here.

 

[t-dot]

Bobcats/Raptors Under 186 -- Simply put the Bobcats are playing in this game and the Raptors coach is on the verge of getting canned. Raptors are 6-0 the over at home this year but are only 2-4 SU. Toughest practice of the season two days ago and I'm sure by toughest they weren't practicing their jump shots. If your coach wants you to play better defense I'm not sure there is a better opponent to face up against than Charlotte. Another 88-79 game here.

Practice was about help defense and pushing the ball up the court faster.

 

[Zecco]

BOL JP!

 

[JPicks]

Practice was about help defense and pushing the ball up the court faster.

Don't know how they can't be worrying more about D and worrying less about pushing the ball, but that's probably why the coach is on the hot seat.

BOL JP!

thanks zecco

Hawks/Bucks O194 -- Struggled with this one for awhile now as I like both the Hawks and the over. Think this will be a bit more uptempo with Bogut out as the Hawks won't be forced to give Zaza any minutes. With the Hawks lack of defense these days I had to roll with the over. Bucks love losing by 6-10 and I see the same for them tonight.

 

[SportsNut]

Practice was about help defense and pushing the ball up the court faster.

Interesting for sure . I would guess all teams in need of a win can start with defense first though . Thats the one thing you have the most control of . Something has to give Bobcats 3-0 UNDER away and Raps 6-0 Over at home . A first is happening for someone . Charlotte really seems to be playing very slow these days and controlled . I am leaning UNDER 186 as well but concerned by the practice comments .. Also with Charlotte they have 9 losses which 3 are away . In these 9 losses they have 1 game where they scored more then 83 points and that was @ NYK with 98 . Otherwise the other 8 losses having them top pout at 83 pts leaving 103 for the home team theoritically speaking ...


How about Memphis +9.5 or +10 or even 1st half .....Utah the walking wounded have 5 players out and Deron Williams will play but is limited . More so though because they are so shorthanded then he is ready is how I read into it .

Deron Williams will be in the starting lineup Wednesday against the Grizzlies after playing just two games since suffering the injury over a month ago.

Carlos Boozer, Kyle Korver, Matt Harpring, Brevin Knight and Jarron Collins are all out with various injuries, so Williams is going to give it a shot. His minutes will be somewhat limited and he's also not planning on playing in both both of this weekend's back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday. It's great to have him back in action and hopefully he can stick around more than two games this time.

Thoughts on Taking Memphis ?? Usually I am all about riding undermanned teams but there is a limit to everything .

Hard for me to not be interested in +15.5 or so with OKC only wonder does the tough loss hang with them here ?? Some pretty solid rebounding stats yesterday vs Shaq less Suns especially on the offensive glass . Still undersized compared to Cle but a good sign on some levels .

Another INJURY game has Milw minus Redd , Bogut , and Ridinour with Joe Johnson possibly playing with a bad foot . Zaza was banged up a bit and Horford missed a game so 3 days rest should have been very helpful. Milw is always falling around the number on the road . However I like ATL to get a nice comfortable win here with to many key Bucks out . Bucks also strong Over team away like 7-3 but 194 seems like alot unless Milw plays faster with out the big men in the middle . Strong LEAN ATL -7

Looking at Sixers , Det 1st H especially , Wolves 1st H and game , maybe Indy 1st H and Rockets 2nd H on top of what I mentioned before the WC starts later on...:cheers:

GL any thoughts ??

 

[tuck321]

Covers shows it opened at 182.5. How bad can it be to just bet with the book. GL

 

[JPicks]

Lean Memphis for sure, but would probably take them 1st half rather than game. Jazz have started slow multiple times with the new lineup and I imagine it'll take Deron some time to settle in. Jazz have the ability to be down 5 or 6 at half and open up a 2nd half lead. Still doubt they'll cover the 9 in very many scenarios.

Also had alot of interest in OKC, but am hoping for a 25 point deficit to play them at half. Down 13-0 we're well on our way.

Just getting to the 8:00 tips, but how could you not be interested in the Wolves here if for no other reason they are getting little to no action and the line is pegged at 4. Not sure at all about Indy, but it's interesting that they're getting the same points @hou on a b2b as @Dal. I certainly consider the rockets a better team.

Going to add the Twolves now before the line sneaks to 3.5

TWOLVES +4 -- Phoenix has look suspect on the road lately winning by 1 @OKC, losing by 12 to a shorthanded jazz team, and winning by 2 it OT @SAC.

 

[t-dot]

Don't know how they can't be worrying more about D and worrying less about pushing the ball, but that's probably why the coach is on the hot seat.

Faster pace helps their Defense.

OUr back court has the worst per differential in the league. parker has the 3rd worst per difference of any position in the NBA (OKC and Wiz are the others, both coaches have been fired recently.)

Our perimeter strengths are offense and not defense, that why I think BC is trying to go back to a Phx North type system. I have a play on the Over.

 

[JPicks]

Faster pace helps their Defense.

OUr back court has the worst per differential in the league. parker has the 3rd worst per difference of any position in the NBA (OKC and Wiz are the others, both coaches have been fired recently.)

Our perimeter strengths are offense and not defense, that why I think BC is trying to go back to a Phx North type system. I have a play on the Over.

I know you're a big fan of them so your opinion is worth more than mine, but how can more possessions in a game help them?

They're 10th in offensive eff. and 4th to last in defensive eff. Their defense is the problem based on those #'s, but again I don't watch them or know them nearly as well as you.

 

[t-dot]

I know you're a big fan of them so your opinion is worth more than mine, but how can more possessions in a game help them?

They're 10th in offensive eff. and 4th to last in defensive eff. Their defense is the problem based on those #'s, but again I don't watch them or know them nearly as well as you.

Other than JO, the Raptors are built for an uptempo game. Their offensive strengths can make up for their defensive deficiencies. Its like GSW playing a halfcourt game,it doesnt work.

In a HC game, it allows they other team to set and attack Parker or Calderone on iso's. That puts too much pressure on our 3 other players to help; thus leaving players free for open jumpers or backdoor cuts. Its hard enough to cover up 1 weak link on D, but damn near impossible to cover up both. We also dont have the dribble penetration in half court sets to make up for what we lose on the defensive end. So, the only way we can make up for anything is by pushing and let JO anchor the D on his own.

 

[JPicks]

t-dot :shake:


Pinch my nose as I submitted this:

Thunder 2nd half PK (-05c)

 

[t-dot]

t-dot :shake:


Pinch my nose as I submitted this:

Thunder 2nd half PK (-05c)

IM already on it.

I have the Over 195 too.

Take a look at the Spurs -2 1Q, I think its solid. I think the Bulls maybe won 1 or 2 1Q's all year.

 

[t-dot]

Congrats on the Under. I think they scored a combined 4 points in the last 5 minutes of the game.

 

[t-dot]

What happened at the end of the OKC game?

 

[JPicks]

What happened at the end of the OKC game?

Gibson decided to hoist a 30 footer with no time left and sank it. Nothing like winning with class.

 

[Retburj13]

Gibson decided to hoist a 30 footer with no time left and sank it. Nothing like winning with class.

Texas douchebag:hang:

 

[JPicks]

Houston 2nd Half -5.5

tempted to play the Spurs/Bulls 2nd half over as well

 

[SportsNut]

For anyone interested really like both SA -4.5 and over 95 2nd Half . Have to agree with Houston seeing how they have finished past few games just a tad concerned that this trend has gotten stretched . GL Jeff..

 

[JPicks]

For anyone interested really like both SA -4.5 and over 95 2nd Half . Have to agree with Houston seeing how they have finished past few games just a tad concerned that this trend has gotten stretched . GL Jeff..

Damn going and cooking up some grub. Loved the 2nd half over and had I seen this I would have certainly jumped on it. Such poor shooting %'s and they still threw up 90. Oh well. You playing anything in that Clippers game? I know the Clippers are likely the right side, but not sure how much they still want to get their coach canned and Randolph's impact tonight.

 

[SportsNut]

CBB :

Stanford 1st H -11 and game -19

GL

 

[SportsNut]

Damn going and cooking up some grub. Loved the 2nd half over and had I seen this I would have certainly jumped on it. Such poor shooting %'s and they still threw up 90. Oh well. You playing anything in that Clippers game? I know the Clippers are likely the right side, but not sure how much they still want to get their coach canned and Randolph's impact tonight.

Might play LAC 1st Half ...:shake::cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Might play LAC 1st Half ...:shake::cheers:

Played the Under 198. With Carmelo struggling it was an easy decision in the end.

 

[Marlo]

Get the mutherfucking broom out man

 

[signalcaller]

Hell of a start so far J. Lets get the Blazers game in now

 

[SportsNut]

Asst Coach Kim Hughes is the acting HC today with Dunleavy attending a funerla for what its worth.

 

[JPicks]

Asst Coach Kim Hughes is the acting HC today with Dunleavy attending a funerla for what its worth.

oh shit really. that's all i needed. lmao but it's to funny for me not to play it now as I've been saying they want Dunleavy canned all year.


Clippers ML +155

 

[JPicks]

Get the mutherfucking broom out man

Hell of a start so far J. Lets get the Blazers game in now

No brooms needed, but it's been a good start so far. No complaints as I feel fortunate to win a couple, but I would like to kick Gibson's ass about now.

 

[SportsNut]

Played the Under 198. With Carmelo struggling it was an easy decision in the end.

Actually did as well last minute . Along with LAC 1st H hoping for some focus with the HC missing and the fact LAC collapsed vs DEN last meeting:cheers: