11/25/08 NBA Tuesday

JPicks

Pretty much a regular
56-44 (56%) +8.40 Units
9-10 ML's +0.35 Units


Well the first 100 bets are in and the first month of the season is almost over. Have a goal of +75 units on the year and at this rate I'll end up short of that goal. Not sure whether that means I need to make more plays or hit at a higher rate, but at 56% I don't think I can reasonably expect anything higher. So it looks like I'll be expanding my selections a bit and hope my % doesn't take to much of a hit.

Last night sucked. Went 2-2 on straight bets and 0-1 on ML's. Lost the Jazz over by 0.5 a point, Magic shit the bed in the 4th, and the Kings missed a layup at the buzzer to kill my +700 ML dreams. It's great to be back. :)

And on to tonight and I'm not going to lie. This isn't my favorite card ever.

Warriors/Wizards O209 -- I love Crawford running the point for the Warriors. From everything I've read about the practice reports he's slipped right in and Nelson loves his passing ability. Doubt we'll see much of Blatche or Etan tonight as they certainly aren't going to take advantage of Biedrins on the offensive side and they can use McGee to guard him while staying more athletic. Sure the Wiz play better defense than they did against the Knicks with the new coach coming in, but I don't think it'll stop them from running like they've done in all the previous matchups.

Suns/Thunder O201.5 -- Doubt Shaq plays and that always makes the Suns a more mobile team. Love Durant to SF with Green sliding down to PF and Collison going to center. T-Dot nailed it in the discussion thread that Scotts benched all the big stiffs that played for whatever reasons. Teams becomes alot more athletic Wilkins starting rather than Petro. More than likely to see a track meet here.

Cavs/Knicks U212 -- The one thing I don't like about this game is that the teams have combined to go over in their last 3 meetings at MSG. The addition of 3 players to the Knicks should cause enough confusion to keep this game below 200 though. While Cleveland has been running a bit more this year they have to realize they can't outrun the Knicks and this is the first of a 4/5 so saving some legs for the rest of the week might not be a terrible idea. Some other good thoughts on this one in Tuck's thread by him and Sportsnut.

Pacers +8 and ML +300-- Was going to wait on this one, but I'll pull the trigger now. Anybody look at the Pacers schedule over the next couple of weeks? @HOU, CHA, @ORL, LAL, @BOS, @CLE, BOS, @TOR, @DET. Unreal. They had chances to win @ORL and ran out of gas on a b2b with OT vs. Miami the following night. Think they grab the W here as Dallas wallows in their four game win streak that involves wins over the Knicks, Bobcats, and Grizzlies.

Wizards +1 (-05c) 1st Half --See Below


Other games:
Also have a bunch of interest in the Nets as big dogs. Thunder @half if they're down big.


Wednesday's Bets that have already been played:

Blazers -7
Pistons/Knicks U209.5
 
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Good Luck bro.

If you have any interest really like the Wizards 1st Half as my strongest play so far . Not sure of much else . Almost more interested in watching both GSW and NYK utilize their new players then guessing what will happen tonight . Jamal Crawford can pass ? Thats news to me an the Knicks .

Of your totals like the Suns over the most and well you know my feelings on the knick total but still comes down to how that game plays out ATS before I make a decision on the total(pass , wait till halftime or go under only options).

Also agree with Indy as well .
 
Actually I left out not a fan of the GSW over but a good spot in the sense they are off a 170 full game score . Just not sure why they havent played well offensively on the road to this point and dont have the time to really look into it . Not saying I like the under but just really no bias to the over. GL
 
Gl, Im already on all 3 your totals.

GL to us then. :cheers:


Good Luck bro.

If you have any interest really like the Wizards 1st Half as my strongest play so far . Not sure of much else . Almost more interested in watching both GSW and NYK utilize their new players then guessing what will happen tonight . Jamal Crawford can pass ? Thats news to me an the Knicks .

Of your totals like the Suns over the most and well you know my feelings on the knick total but still comes down to how that game plays out ATS before I make a decision on the total(pass , wait till halftime or go under only options).

Also agree with Indy as well .

Like the Wiz myself for the full game even. Wasn't really sure how to play it so I just rolled with the total. I do think the Warriors have the type of system that allows them to throw anybody in there and be affective. Also like that Crawford has a practice or two under his belt. May have to join you on that 1st half bet. It's certainly tempting.

GL tonight.
 
Actually I left out not a fan of the GSW over but a good spot in the sense they are off a 170 full game score . Just not sure why they havent played well offensively on the road to this point and dont have the time to really look into it . Not saying I like the under but just really no bias to the over. GL

They've had 4 Under results.

Jersey game was the 2nd of a B2B OT game and the Memphis game was a look ahead to a home game vs. Denver. THe Philly game was an early start. The Toronto game was also an early start, but would have been under if it wasn't for OT. THe Queens game missed the Over by 0.5 points.

So, under normal circumstances, they'd be 5-1 Over on the road.
 
Going the Wizards 1st half route with SportsNut. Tempted to play the 1st quarter rather than the half, but the juice pretty much made up my mind for me. -25c and a 0.5 point for the quarter vs -05c and 1 point for the half.

Wizards +1 (-.05c) 1st Half
 
Going the Wizards 1st half route with SportsNut. Tempted to play the 1st quarter rather than the half, but the juice pretty much made up my mind for me. -25c and a 0.5 point for the quarter vs -05c and 1 point for the half.

Wizards +1 (-.05c) 1st Half


Wiz win 63-49

Probably no better feeling then helping put you a winner . Good Luck on the rest . The 2nd H under could be shaping up well @ MSG although NYG defense is terrible and Harrington only makes it worse ( he just may be the HUMAN OVER ).

Also thanks T-Dot , bewteen you , Jeff and few others are like my go to guys in the NBA reserach department . Whatever I cant explain usually you guys can . Thanks again and GL
:cheers:
 
Al Harrington entered the game with NY trailing 17-16 he leaves 7 minutes and 19 seconds later . His +/- is -19 and simple math shows NY down by 20 !:36_11_6:
 
Honestly this 2nd half under is going to be golden. As long as they don't get into the 120's at half I still think the game under looks great. I'd be shocked if the Cavs scored 140 (likely on pace for) with this being the first of a 4/5. Likely to see the last 5 guys on Cleveland's bench play the entire 4th quarter.

And thanks for the final push on that 1st half bet. Much appreciated. :cheers:
 
Nash is hurting our total, we need Barbosa in there.

never thought the day would come when i want nash out of the game to help an over.



playing with fire here, but.............

cavs/knicks 2nd half Under 104


This game is over and the cavs need to save some resources. I'm sure the Cavs staff would like nothing more than to sit Lebron on the bench in the 2nd half and deprive the New York audience the chance to watch him. Easy excuse with the blowout on and the Cavs playing a 4/5. Doubt we'll see anybody but the end of the bench in the 4th quarter. Knicks also on the front end of a b2b with Detroit on deck tomorrow.
 
Nice start man, nothing i love more than 15 pt quarters when I have an over:seeya:

Hopefully these damn Pacers can keep the pace...been out of loop for at least 5 days now, but Pacers 1st quarter continues to be money.
 
jp, any thoughts on that lakers total?

honestly never got around to looking at the game, but i will say that it looks like we could have a clean run of overs tonight and i am one who believes in BC's season trend thread, so I'd lean over if for no other reason than that. Carter and Harris should be able to penatrate at will vs. the lakers so that also works well for the over.
 
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