11:00 PM EST Saturday ESPN GAME: Fresno at Hawaii

Hawaiiguy

Big Kahuna
Notes:

Hawaii fans, don’t fool yourselves….. 50 Teams in College Football would be 8-0 if they had Hawaii’s weak ass schedule. Not a single team Hawaii played has a winning record….

Now 4 games in 4 weeks against actual D-1A Teams, ALL ON ESPN, to decide their fate…

Fresno State, at Nevada, Boise State, and Washington……. We will see if Hawaii is a fraud or not. And, if Hawaii wins these last 4 games, it is a complete joke that they should be EVEN considered for the BCS….

One more thing, all I hear in Hawaii, is, “BCS! BCS!” Please, STFU… All I can say is “Remember BYU”. 12-0 BYU screamed BCS in 2001 and threatened to sue the BCS if they did not get in. What happened? BYU came to Hawaii in their last game of the year and got lit up on National TV by Hawaii 72-45…. Probably the most embarrassing moment in NCAA Football. Hawaii can easily repeat BYU’s embarrassment, except that Hawaii has 4 chances to do so on ESPN…..

- Small time football program. Texas (followed by Tennessee) generated the most revenue for 2006 at $60 Million. Hawaii Football? Look way down that list….$5 Million. Even Boise State, that used to be behind Hawaii, generated $8 Million (does not include BCS appearance either)…..Now you can see why Colt Brennan complained about not having soap in the locker rooms……

- Hawaii’s nearly all Texas kid Secondary is #3 in the nation in interceptions (17) behind Boston College and UConn. Hawaii leads the nation in Interceptions for TD’s (5). Only taking points given up by the first team defense (lot of 4th QTR TDs allowed in blow outs and Hawaii scrubs playing), Hawaii’s defense is allowing 14.75 ppg. Hawaii is ranked #16 against the run, #39 overall.

- Surprising stat: Hawaii is #1 in the nation in kickoff returns, including 4 TDs.

- Hawaii has lost starting Safety Monteilh for the year. He is being replaced by JC All-American Desmond Thomas who has played extensively and was the starting safety in the pre-season. There will be little or no drop off here.

- Hawaii is coming off a bye week. Fresno is coming off a 38-27 Home win versus Utah State.

- These two met last year in Fresno. Fresno scored first and were quickly blown out by the half 42-17. The final score was 68-37. It was actually worse than the score indicates with Brennan not playing in the 4th and Fresno getting two late TDs.

- Hawaii is 4-2 last 6 against Fresno…..

My Pick and Reasons Why:

Lean Fresno, will wait for line to climb before deciding on final play…..

Some reasons for either side right now:

- There are only three teams in the WAC that have low to mid BCS Conference talent: Hawaii, Boise, and Fresno. The rest of the WAC would struggle in D-IAA. This is the first time Hawaii will play a legitimate team with talent.

- Fresno State has one of the worst secondaries in the nation. Check the Box Scores of Fresno State for the last 20 games. More importantly, actually watch these guys play. Last year, Fresno had 5 Picks for the entire year. In 9 games this year, Fresno has just one Interception! This is staggering. On just luck alone, Fresno should have more than one interception, but anyone who watched Fresno play, knows their defense just does not make plays….

- Fresno has been outgained in 6 of 9 games this year….

- Like Dick Tomey of San Jose State, give Fresno State’s Pat Hill a chance to avenge a blowout and he usually keeps it close…..

- Fresno’s RB tandem of Smith and Mathews will pose problems for Hawaii….. However, Fresno’s QB Brandstater is horrid. Last year Hawaii put everyone on defense in the box and dared Fresno to throw the ball… Trusting Brandstater to keep it close with Hawaii is crazy…..

Fresno’s defense won’t stop Hawaii…..but Fresno’s offense can stop Hawaii offense by keeping the ball…….Got a feeling Pat Hill’s dogs are going to have some 12+ play drives…..Fresno at least has the running backs to do this…..

35-21 Hawaii sounds about right……

FYI: Two future games I have bets in case you wonder how I got lines……

Hawaii -4 over Nevada 500 to win 454.55
Boise +8 over Hawaii 500 to win 454.55

Both were available forever on sportsbook.com Games of the Year before the season started.

Good Luck in whatever you play:seeya:
 
Great thread on hawaii football as usual. For some reason in the preseason i thought this game was at Fresno. shrug. Guess i was reading bad information from somewhere. meaningless now anyways i guess.

Quick question for you. Hawaii is 16 th vs the run this year ... do you attribute that to good rush defense or to huge leads ??

Also, does it concern you as a fresno backer in this game that hawaii has basically had two months and an offeseason to prepare for fresno , washington and boise ?
 
no opinion on this one, but it does appear that RB Ryan Matthews will be out for this one...
 
Great thread on hawaii football as usual. For some reason in the preseason i thought this game was at Fresno. shrug. Guess i was reading bad information from somewhere. meaningless now anyways i guess.

Quick question for you. Hawaii is 16 th vs the run this year ... do you attribute that to good rush defense or to huge leads ??

Also, does it concern you as a fresno backer in this game that hawaii has basically had two months and an offeseason to prepare for fresno , washington and boise ?

good stuff, vegas. two things: hawaii run defense is no where near as good as advertised having played real bad teams, and in blow outs. however, it aint that bad, and we got lots of rotating samoans on the d-line (8 samoans)....and we got three killer lbs.

there is one game i really think hawaii has prepared and looked forward to, Boise. we never have beat them (when they were IAA, yes). the rest of these games.....hawaii will take them one at a time.

pags: great news and scary.....will have to monitor that.:cheers:
 
I posted 4 sides on Saturday, and went 1-3.

Won with Iowa State +15 vs. Kansas St, and Lost with Wisconsin +16 vs. Ohio State (I should've won that game I feel), Lost with ASU +9 (bad pick) and Texas A&M +21.5 @ OU (terrible pick).

I did not have time to post my 2nd half plays because Saturdays are frenetic for me. My 2nd half plays went 4-6, so all in all I was only 5-9 on the day. Out of 10 college football Saturdays, this was my 4th losing one. Only 6 winning Saturdays. It has been a tough season, my toughest one in years.

Got no problem what anyone's record is, as long as they post their plays and sound opinions / facts.:cheers:
 
HG - Would you believe I have Boise State +16 against Hawaii when they play? That was the line back in like Week 3, so I grabbed it right away. Talk about value!

I also agree with your Fresno lean. The Bulldogs usually play Hawaii tough, year in and year out. Fun rivalry to watch...and can't wait for the Boise/Hawaii clash. Should be a terrific shootout!

GL this week!
 
I need information on this book, and details for funding. I've got nothing like it. Good information and thanks again for the write-up.
 
HG - Would you believe I have Boise State +16 against Hawaii when they play? That was the line back in like Week 3, so I grabbed it right away. Talk about value!

I also agree with your Fresno lean. The Bulldogs usually play Hawaii tough, year in and year out. Fun rivalry to watch...and can't wait for the Boise/Hawaii clash. Should be a terrific shootout!

GL this week!
+16 holy shit, what book?

btw guys, I hear Fresno State's #1 RB AND #1 Receiver could be out....hold out on any plays.....
 
+16 holy shit, what book?

btw guys, I hear Fresno State's #1 RB AND #1 Receiver could be out....hold out on any plays.....

Same book as you did bro...Sportsbook.com. Around Week 3 I think it was Boise St +16, and I just knew the line was ridicuously high. I'll bump my Sportsbook.com GOY thread. It's a shitty book...but the GOY plays are great.
 
By all accounts, Ryan Mathews and Pascoe have made the trip to Hawaii and will play.

I swear to god, I hope I am wrong.....

But the line is moving the wrong way.....

Fresno - Hawaii is probably the biggest hatefest / rivalry in the WAC.

Remember how Hawaii trounced Fresno last year and then proceeded to Haka all over their logo after the game?

LINK

Revenge is in the air, and it would hurt Hawaii more than ever if Fresno can win this......

FSU is better than they were last year....So they lost to Oregon, Boise, and Texas A&M.....big deal, a lot of teams would lose to those teams....

Hawaii's offense is NOT better than last year. Hawaii sent 4 offensive linemen to the NFL (inlcuding starting FB for Miami Dolphins, Mauia).....Hawaii sorely misses the 550 lbs of RB in Ilaoa and Mauia from last year....

The 8 crap teams Hawaii played couldnt expose this.....but Fresno's pass rush is FIERCE......

I think Fresno will......They got nothing to lose....

Hawaii has everything to lose.....

I think it will be waaaaaaay closer than people think.....

Fresno State +19 770 to win 700

Good luck in whatever you play.......:seeya:
 
good info. seems to be your mo.

looking forward to the game. The only thing I worry about is how stupid the Fresno State coach is. That guy always seems to fuck up the game when it really counts.
 
Well, I appreciate your analysis and opinion. It looks like you might have been a tad off today, but so was everyone else by the way it looks...Hawaii is taking Fresno to the woodshed, and it looks like it might get ugly for the bulldogs...

Good luck to us...
 
Well, I appreciate your analysis and opinion. It looks like you might have been a tad off today, but so was everyone else by the way it looks...Hawaii is taking Fresno to the woodshed, and it looks like it might get ugly for the bulldogs...

Good luck to us...

Not so fast, besides that initial onslaught, Fresno was covering +19 for over 3 quarters.......

Thanks guys.....

Hawaii dominated but credit goes to Fresno for playing balls out....

Brennan got knocked the fuck up.....Hope he is ok.....

:cheers:
 
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Not so fast, besides that initial onslaught, Fresno was covering +19 for over 3 quarters.......

Thanks guys.....

Hawaii dominated but credit goes to Fresno for playing balls out....

Brennan got knocked the fuck up.....Hope he is ok.....

:cheers:

Fell asleep on the couch late in the 3rd when they were down 18, and just woke up and checked the score...Holy shit! WTF? Nice hit. Glad I was wrong, but you'd NEVER have guessed FSU had it in them watching the first 25 minutes of that game. UH was having their way with them....Good hit, and thanks for the play, HG...

I hope Brennan's o.k. I haven't seen the hit, but apparently it must have been really something. I'm going to try to find it. Congrats again and thanks for the insight. I (and quite a few others) deserved that today...
 
Fell asleep on the couch late in the 3rd when they were down 18, and just woke up and checked the score...Holy shit! WTF? Nice hit. Glad I was wrong, but you'd NEVER have guessed FSU had it in them watching the first 25 minutes of that game. UH was having their way with them....Good hit, and thanks for the play, HG...

I hope Brennan's o.k. I haven't seen the hit, but apparently it must have been really something. I'm going to try to find it. Congrats again and thanks for the insight. I (and quite a few others) deserved that today...

Same here Counselor...couldn't hold out on the east coast. Glad to wake up and rewind the game and see we were winners. THANKS HAWAIIGUY. You are THE Man.
 
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