10/4 Chase for the Cup - Nascar

[ksimpsc]

Going to do some early week prep since I will be out of town this weekend. Got a buddy that has a wedding this Friday. At least it is Friday and not on Saturday. Will do some capping today on some details

Nascar Record

Aug 22, 2015
Had Harvick, Hamlin, Edwards and they finished 2, 3, 7 respectively

Sept 06, 2015
Had Keselowski, Hamlin, Lagano and they finished 2, 3, 4 respectively

Sept 12, 2015
Had Earnhardt Jr, Hamlin, Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and they finished 5, 6, 7, 9 respectively

Sept 20, 2015
Harvick, Keneseth, Keselowski and called Hamlin but did not lay it. Finished 5th Keneseth, 8th Keselowski, back for Harvick after a crash

September 27, 2015
+2.7u winner with Toyota to win +220. Kenseth wins it, Hamlin in second, Edwards in 5[SUP]th[/SUP], Busch blew a tire (Busch +690 and top 3 +280), Had Lagano +1100 finish third and the long shot Larson +2850 finish 17th

Was all over it last week. Busch blowing a tire hurt because he had worked ahead of Kenseth and Hamlin which took it to the end. The units on Toyota was a good bet essentially just covering the Gibbs cars. Hopefully can be as dialed in as last week.

 

[ksimpsc]

The race this week is located in Dover, DE. This is a similar track to last week: oval, about a mile long, but this track has a bit more bank to it as opposed to last week it was a flatter track. Gibbs had an advantage there with the raw power.

Last race at this course was in 5/31/15 Denny Hamlin was the Pole Winner and top 5 were Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Harvick, Kyle Larson, Kasey Kahne, Aric Almoriola and Truexx in 6th. Truexx is a consideration as he does well on this course and is sitting +1200.

Bristol is a similar course for the banking and last race there Denny Hamlin was the pole winner Top 5 were Logano, Harvick, Hamlin, Johnson, Bowyer with Kaes Edwards and Busch trailing.

For the practice information. Hamlin is the pole winner. Truex, Larson, Kenseth, Logano, Harvick to follow. Harvick got wrecked 2 weeks ago and ran out of gas last week coming into the final lap so I know he is pissed and hungry. Gordon and Jimmie Johnson aren't bad looks because jimmie is a former winner and Gordon faces elimination.

 

[ksimpsc]

Same pole winner as last time on the course. Jimmie will likely be a play along with all the Gibbs cars again probably through the Toyota bet. Truexx has great starting spot so him at +1200 isnt a bad look. Jimmie Johnson is only +510 even though he has a middle start. Toyota is down to +180 after last week. Tough decisions today

 

[ksimpsc]

Logano is not a bad look at +900 either with his history here and the last few weeks. Ford is at +425 but he is the only ford likely to win barring Greg Biffle coming in out of nowhere.

 

[ksimpsc]

going to watch the juice shift and come back with some picks in a bit

 

[ksimpsc]

since Toyota is down to +180 the odds work better to take the units I was going to put into Toyota +180 and just bet the Gibbs guys single.

1u Kyle Busch +865
1u Matt Kenseth +735
1u Denny Hamlin +915
1u Carl Edwards +835

Looking at a few other value plays, dont think Jimmie Johnson is worth it though he has good record here

 

[ksimpsc]

Want to take my man Larson again this week on some value but don't think it is worth it so I will play a little match up with him

Kyle Larson over Ryan Newman -175 4u
Kyle Larson over Kasey Kahne -120 2u

also

Martin Truexx Jr over Kurt Busch -130 2u

 

[ksimpsc]

Truexx +1300, screw it I will take a flyer on my dude

 

[ksimpsc]

Kyle Busch to place top 3 .5u +220

going back for more pain from last week

 

[ksimpsc]

probably let it sit after that. not a lot of value elsewhere. BOL

 

[Fondybadger]

Best of luck today. Hoping for Menard to make it into next round (lol).

 

[ksimpsc]

LOL Fondy you dont even understand how hilarious that is to me. My buddy and I always joke about how Ol' Menard won't win a race but he will Steady Betty himself into a nice 9-17 spot

 

[ksimpsc]

Come out -2u, pretty much the difference between -2 and +1 was Larson dropping 6 or 7 spots there at the end but still pretty intense race. No juice was to be made on Harvick though no surprise he was running for blood after last couple weeks