10/29/08

[JPicks]

0-1 -1.10 Units

Felt good about the over last night just couldn't buy a bucket.

6-29 20% 3pt, 45-67 67% FT, and Garnett and Allen going 7-24 killed me. The shots were there, but weren't falling.


On to today:

Knicks/Heat Over 206 --Forum Play as they are called.

Jazz/Nuggets Under 210' -- No Dwill, no Carmelo. That's alot of points generated not on the floor. I'm guessing Ronnie Price and Brevin Knight will be try to run a bit in the first half before Sloan reels them in. Knight has had little time to practice with the Jazz and that's not going to help this over at all.

Sixers -5 -- Brand's first game in Philly and I just see the Sixers winning this one comfortably.

Twolves -5' -- No Miller and No Garcia here make the Kings really thin for the road opener. Think Hawes gets into some foul trouble going against AJ and that leaves them relying on Martin and Salomon exclusively. Only concern is that this may be Sac's only winnable game on this 4 game roadie. I think they go 0-4.


Leans that could turn into plays:

Pacers +10
Suns/Spurs Under (would need it run back up to 188)
Grizzlies +12
Lakers/Clipps Over 200 or Lakers -points

GL to all this evening.

 

[ddk997]

Best of luck Jpicks, I liked Sixers and Twolves also, just got too many plays today.

 

[JPicks]

Best of luck Jpicks, I liked Sixers and Twolves also, just got too many plays today.

It certainly happens this time of year. :cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Last thing before I get outta here. Thursday plays locked in:

Hornets +2 and the under 198.


The under will be middled if I can get the kind of movement that I expect. Hoping for a really slow PHO game tonight to push the total down to the low, low 190's. Should have grabbed 200' when I first saw it.

 

[SportsNut]

Good Luck Jeff . I made a few mistakes on opening nights and had a few ral bright spots . The bad was nearly everything I did regarding the Boston game .
Had 1st Q over , Over 180 , Boston -5.5 -120 , Over 93 TT Boston , Over 13.5 Lebron boards and assists , parlays with Boston , over Boston , and Over Bucks , then another with those three plus under LAL. So the poor FT shooting really killed me as this looked real good at half. Definetly should have played Cavs 1st H as the distraction of ring night / Championship celebration would be the 1st H . after halftime it would be all business . Which as I said under 8 pts felt their was more value in Boston just dont see Cle as good as they props they are recieving so far . Mo Willaims is a nice player but he and Redd had issues so pretty sure while he is another option he is going to need to show me overall he makes the team better . Of course wasnt home to play Boston 2nd H either or maybe hedge some with a 2nd H under . So the lulls in the 3rd Q and late in the game certainly hurt when it was 90-85 final (gimme 2 more Celts buckets and 1 more Cle bucket and its a WONDERFUL NIGHT for me ) .

The rest was good although I made one mistake passing on LAL 1st Q and taking only Portland 2nd Q +2. Thought process being LAL last quarter of ball waslosing the Championship now getting to start the season at home would lead me to believe there is emphasis on a fast start . The good was hitting LAL and UNDER pretty nicely and having the Bulls over ......

Played the Utah under and NYK over , lean Philly and have to look at Minny still but seems to make sense.....

BOL today !:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Also take a look at that Philly UNDER . I grabbed some but not enough earlier at 190.5 . Just saw it get hit down to 187.5/188 .

They met in the preseason at Tor and game was 85-79 . Philly had relatively low scoring games outside of no defense squads NJN and NYK. 190 , 193 , 174 in the others vs Boston and CLE twice.

Cuts it close but was looking for (95-98pts) 96-90(88-90pts)

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Forgot it was a 6:05 start ....

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL today JPicks

with you on the over and definitely considered Philly yesterday night but wouldve been more comfortable with 5 and not 5.5. looks like thats what u got.

 

[JPicks]

Thanks reNew. I was going to pass at 5' as well, but it came back down right at whatever time I posted it. Either way it doesn't look that great right now. Hopefully this over is as easy as we're all anticipating.

 

[SportsNut]

Knicks -1.5 -120 :

So far my biggest play . Miami starting 2 talented rookies but one is a PG . So you have 2 rookies in the starting 5 but one the most key position in the game , on the road at MSG no less , a rookie coach making his coaching debut let alone NBA debut , thin bench , vs new and exciting fresh start in NY...

BOL

 

[JPicks]

Knicks -1.5 -120 :

So far my biggest play . Miami starting 2 talented rookies but one is a PG . So you have 2 rookies in the starting 5 but one the most key position in the game , on the road at MSG no less , a rookie coach making his coaching debut let alone NBA debut , thin bench , vs new and exciting fresh start in NY...

BOL

Homer.

Already read something about both rookies being extra nervous as this is their first NBA game AND it's in "the mecca of basketball". Nerves could definitely play a roll here. :shake:

 

[JPicks]

Knicks -1.5 -120 :

So far my biggest play . Miami starting 2 talented rookies but one is a PG . So you have 2 rookies in the starting 5 but one the most key position in the game , on the road at MSG no less , a rookie coach making his coaching debut let alone NBA debut , thin bench , vs new and exciting fresh start in NY...

BOL

Nice call. Nice 2-0 on that game. Much appreciated. :shake:

 

[JPicks]

Warriors +7' 1 Unit
+275 1/2 Unit

 

[Dollaz]

GL J

 

[SportsNut]

Nice call. Nice 2-0 on that game. Much appreciated. :shake:

This was my 1st Knick game . I love D'Antoni more because the guy can handle a press conference in a very business like manor . Wilson Chandler is going to be a star. Zeke is great at identifying young talent at least . They allowed Miami a chance to get back in late but alot of what happened was pure momentum . This game they found a way to halt the momentum despite so-so play . Crawford rushed a 3 with no reason to inside 2 or 3 minutes and also looked to chuck another one but got bailed out by Wade's 6th foul then missed 2 of the 3 freebies. Nate was actually the calming influence . Pretty good game overall though .

Made some bad plays , missed 1 or two I wanted to play and pissed the dam Wolves game ended like that killing my Over 200 which besides the single play busted a 4 team parlay .

Pretty decent feel despite not having a clue ......:shake::cheers:

On the Warriors as well ....small parlay LAL -5.5 and over 100 1st h as well ....

 

[Marlo]

Nut I was pretty impressed with the way the Knicks looked tonight. I thought Miami played pretty sloppy, but NY didnt look bad at all.

 

[SportsNut]

Nut I was pretty impressed with the way the Knicks looked tonight. I thought Miami played pretty sloppy, but NY didnt look bad at all.

Miami was definetly sloppy in stretches missed some easy buckets at time which definetly helped that lead get real wide . Would say that Cook hitting some of those three's though late was kinda the evening out process.

Actually interested in watching NY play but there are definetly some warning signs . Shot selection and game management being two of them. Crawford played well in the 1st Q but so-so afterwards , thought Chandler , Nate , Lee all played very well , Zach & Q were solid , Duhon was okay really wasnt a huge factor kinda invinsible since I didnt realize he played 38 minutes ...overall a step in the right direction finally......

If you get a chance Marlo , would be interested in getting a daily discussion thread going to scribble down some thoughts ..:shake::cheers:

Heat could have a decent bench if Livingston gets back to 100% with Cook and Banks...

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice job on the totals J.

I leaned on your same sides. Philly may just have an adjustment period. They are the chique pick in the league it seems.

 

[SportsNut]

Put some Thursday comments in the LVSC thread if you want to use that to start a discussion thread Jeff . Had some rough beats in a sense losing a 4 team parlay because the Kings game went under , lost my Jaz to Under reverse but caught a nice break hitting a 4 team 2nd H parlay NOH -5.5 , Under 103 , LAL -1 and Under 99 LAL plus had them all played sepeartleuy for varying amounts and GSW +8 hit .........good end to the night after a bunch of near misses and some good plays mixed in with bad ones NJN , Over NJN and Over Houston , Okie City and Utah all BAD ..........

I managed to play every game on the board already .....Missed I few i wanted and was cautious on some 2md H's but found my nuts by the end of the night .....uhm 46 plays in the Association tonight ........:36_11_6:

 

[CapTwo]

Good to see you over in the hoops forum jpicks, best of luck to you in this season.

If only the NBA had a MWC we'd all be rich from tailing you :smiley_acbe:

 

[CapTwo]

I managed to play every game on the board already ...

:36_11_6:

Nut you crazy mofo, you love having heavy action i dunno how you do it and pull a profit from it. But you do!
Hope you had a good day bro:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Good to see you over in the hoops forum jpicks, best of luck to you in this season.

If only the NBA had a MWC we'd all be rich from tailing you :smiley_acbe:

To us East Coast guys anything West Coast is like the MWC .....:cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Nice job on the totals J.

I leaned on your same sides. Philly may just have an adjustment period. They are the chique pick in the league it seems.

To be 100% honest I shouldn't be anywhere near sides right now as I'm not as educated as I need to be on the league. That Philly crowd was maybe half full and you could tell by watching something more significant (Phillies) was going on. They never had a shot of covering. Minny on the other hand is the product of laying points with a bad team. Just not mature enough to know how to win and putting teams away. More gambling lessons. :shake:

Put some Thursday comments in the LVSC thread if you want to use that to start a discussion thread Jeff . Had some rough beats in a sense losing a 4 team parlay because the Kings game went under , lost my Jaz to Under reverse but caught a nice break hitting a 4 team 2nd H parlay NOH -5.5 , Under 103 , LAL -1 and Under 99 LAL plus had them all played sepeartleuy for varying amounts and GSW +8 hit .........good end to the night after a bunch of near misses and some good plays mixed in with bad ones NJN , Over NJN and Over Houston , Okie City and Utah all BAD ..........

I managed to play every game on the board already .....Missed I few i wanted and was cautious on some 2md H's but found my nuts by the end of the night .....uhm 46 plays in the Association tonight ........:36_11_6:

You would. 46? And when did you start parlaying games? Sounds like we need to chat. You're a 20 plays a night guy and you know it. 46 is just a few to many. :36_11_6:

Good to see you over in the hoops forum jpicks, best of luck to you in this season.

If only the NBA had a MWC we'd all be rich from tailing you :smiley_acbe:

You'd think, but the way this year is rolling in foots you'd only be more informed. The bright side is you'd still have your money, but you'd be wondering what all the stress was for. Thanks though. BOL to you this year as well.

 

[JPicks]

To us East Coast guys anything West Coast is like the MWC .....:cheers:

No worries. We don't have any idea what league Syracuse/B.C./Rutgers/and the rest of the schools out there are in either.

 

[Killa]

How bout dem Nets!

Love that fucking team. What a joke line.

 

[CapTwo]

How bout dem Nets!

Love that fucking team. What a joke line.

As a wiz fan, that one stung.

Typical wizards basketball though, Falling apart in the 4Q.
Seen it happen hundreds of times, thats just what they do.

Nice win

:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Jeff- I only fuck around with parlays and action reverses . Cheap ways to increase profits . Basically risk 25 maybe 50 bucks at times for the 10 to 1 payout on the 4 team parlays and 4 to 1 payout on action reverses . A tad more risk on reverses(use double risk) but also 4 to 1 payout for 2 plays ....two team parlays are a waste because you get 2.6 to 1 which if yo bet seperately youwould win 2.o anyway and lose only vig if you split . So those are the sucker parlays the multi team parlays are the way to go for sure . I wish I could do more then 4 teamers as 6-7 teas would be ideal .

The 46 wasnt including NHL either (lol) . It sound slike alot but its really not if you think about it . 12 games sides and totals is already 24 options plus 1st H and then 2nd H puts us at 72 choices without even looking at Quarter plays or props . Add in parlays and once could make a 100 or120 so differnt plays rather easily on a day like today ...Some are hedging a play as well at half like NOH 2nd H against my GSW +8 .

Cap its crazy I would be MUCH better off if I used matchbook but really cant fund it in the manner I would like to continue to do what I do . Playing on credit is much easier for me in some manners . Although I do piss away alot at times of frustration and the Sunday when I may be down or even and dont want to feel like I wasted a week and made nothing ....thats the weakness or my weakness .

Ultimately I just see value in everything. Of course the value varies and thats the tough part . Do I pass , do I wait till half , do I play just a little now and hope to add ? I fuck up more deciding what to bet and how much more then anything I do .

I played 11 sides went 7-4 only passed on the early game . Played 10 totals went 5-5. A fairly good 5-5 though winning my 3 big totals , lost 2 mediums and 3 small ones . The action teaches me things . it teaches about how th egame was lined , the expectations going into the game , the movement on the game line (do I see something I can use in the future ?) and becomes an educational process . I can tell you whatever I know about the NBA is what I learned in the past 2 days reading . No idea who is coaching , who is playing where , etc. I just know how to maniuplate the market when I am going good. Most people focus on the players and teams where I focus on the numbers then the teams and players for alot of games ...

Trust me I envy anyone who can narrow his plays down and do very well like TeeDub does . If I could do that I would. Just cant . My brain doesnt work in that manner . Still even with terrible vig it worked out that for every 5.5 dollars I risked I won $1 . Which is pretty damn good and I fucked up alot of things today and had acouple narrow misses . So a pretty solid went well where yesterday a real solid day didnt and thats my downfall . Did better overall yeterday and wound up slightily negative because of being misweighted .

Amount of games has nothing to do with rate of success or level of success . The problem with alot of plays is ather simple JUICE and the more decisions you have to make the greater the chance you make incorrect ones or partially incorrect ones .

Just my way of trying to explain my approach..:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

No worries. We don't have any idea what league Syracuse/B.C./Rutgers/and the rest of the schools out there are in either.

You are better off...MWC schools probably have nicer facilities anyway.:cheers:

 

[Marlo]

To be 100% honest I shouldn't be anywhere near sides right now as I'm not as educated as I need to be on the league.


.

I agree 100 percent on this. I think early its time to be more selective. My strongest leans were Milwaukee/NO. Milwaukee was just a better team catching points, and NO, well I got lucky as shit on hitting the opener.

Give it a couple weeks, and we will have these teams figured out.