10/17/08 Hawaii @ Boise St

mater

Well-Known Member
Any thoughts ??? Im thinking Boise St @ home but 24.5 points is alot. Also the rainbows seem to be playing better football as of late.
 
Tight one ....

Think Boise State will probably sneak it out but a tad scared that the Hawaii offense can move the ball a tad even though I think Boise allowed 7 or less inevery game but @ Oregon .

I think Hawaii played like shit vs LaTech but they won because of the inept offense and untimely mistakes by the Bulldog offense . Hawaii doesnt rate more then -4.5 pts higher then LaTech IMO . Now LaTech went to Boise as get this 24 pt dogs and lost 38-3 but it was pretty much a game where Boise cruised and LaTech left a few points off the board .

Seeing how Hawaii beat Boise last year and Hawaii stole teh game @ Fresno think its about time they get crushed for 3 straight either sloppy or lucky efforts .

Would think 38-14 is fairly safe guess. LaTech moved the ball on Hawaii , Fresno had 2 guys with 150+ yds on the ground . Boise is stout on defense expected they roll but there is no margin for error in the line. Less then -23 would have been nice ....:cheers:(Boise or pass for me )
 
Well besides Boise State having payback for losing the WAC crown look at Hawaiis road stats ...

@ Fresno
allowed 522 yds of offense , two 150+ yd RBs (43c 318yds), only gained 342 themselves but won by 3 in OT

@ Oregon State
allowed 485 yds to compling 211 , about 44c 197yds rushing

@ Florida
allowed 406 yds on 55 plays (about 7.40 per play) well over 200yds rushing

Some good teams , some good RBs , some good defenses . Boise State can definetly run the ball and play defense ....

Guessing Boise wins 38-10 . :cheers:Strong Lean for now
 
SN - While I agree Boise State is probably the right side, their offense hasn't exactly lit it up against decent competition this year. Yardage wise, they've been good offensively...but aside from their games against Idaho State and Louisiana Tech (combined records of 2-9), they haven't converted drives into points (more importantly TDs) as often as they should. The Oregon game might be an exception.

Hawaii isn't that good this season, but they've been competitive, despite giving up a lot of yardage on defense. If Hawaii even comes close to sniffing 13-14 points, it will be tough for Boise to cover, IMO. Look at the numbers...Hawaii's offense isn't too shabby...so it's quite possible they hit 14 points.

If the Broncos were averaging 40+ points a game, it would be a different story. But they're only averaging 33, and giving up an average of 11. IMO, those stats are skewed quite a bit by their blowout win over a winless Idaho State team, when they won 49-7. Toss that game out, and they're averaging just over 29 points per game.

I know I'm just throwing out stats and numbers, and it's only a small part of the equation...but even if Boise State plays a solid (not great) game, they'll probably need to hold Hawaii under 10 points to cover.

I would just be way too nervous laying 24 with a team that hasn't really proven itself yet...at least not IMO.

Now, having said all that...they're at the smurf turf, on a nationally televised Friday Nighter. Unless HawaiiGuy is on the Rainbow Warriors, no frickin way do I take Hawaii.

Just my $0.02, for what little it's worth. Personally, I think there are far better sides to wager on this Saturday.

Regardless of what you decide, GL SN! And good luck to everybody else!

:cheers:
 
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Well besides Boise State having payback for losing the WAC crown look at Hawaiis road stats ...

@ Fresno
allowed 522 yds of offense , two 150+ yd RBs (43c 318yds), only gained 342 themselves but won by 3 in OT

@ Oregon State
allowed 485 yds to compling 211 , about 44c 197yds rushing

@ Florida
allowed 406 yds on 55 plays (about 7.40 per play) well over 200yds rushing

Some good teams , some good RBs , some good defenses . Boise State can definetly run the ball and play defense ....

Guessing Boise wins 38-10 . :cheers:Strong Lean for now

I do think Hawaii has improved since these games though. I think Hawaii can stick around if Funaki protects the ball. Combine that with the fact that I think Boise is overrated, and I would lean Hawaii at +24 or more (should have put a small play at +26 earlier in the week). Was thinking 35-17ish here.
 
Thanks DMoney and Atzec for the comments/help .

I am in agreeance with the fact Hawaii has shown some improvement more so on the offense side of the ball as Funaki has grown more comfortable. Still I feel Fresno was just 2 weeks ago and I know some may disagree but that Latech game IMO was very uninspiring . I just felt a team with such clear offensive issues put themselves in great position to score twice and walked away missing a 33 yd FG and fumbling on Hawaii's 3 . Which I will agree is representative of a bad team like LT but the fact they got into that position on the road especially with the travel factor and supposed Hawaii HFA makes me wonder about the Rainbows. They were in a sense LT self destructed despite the fact I agree LT is a bad team. Hawaii was not dictating the tempo early . The game seemed to change once it became 7-7 when Hawaii showed a spark and moved the ball going up 14-7 and then the fumble on the kick put LT in a tailspin. To which they just never seemed the same afterwards.

I also agree that I am not overly impressed with Boise State and do think the game is priced tight more possibly inflated then short. Ideally I would like to see -21 here and wont jump into this game because I assume some syndicate o sharp action drove the Sat game from -7.5 to -10 before kickoff. I know PAGS has a good handle on this conference and while I disagree with the disparity he sees in Hawaii and LTech doesnt mean that I am correct . I have to acknowledge on some level that my feel for Hawaii could be INCORRECT .

What impresses me with Boise State is there defense (specifically there consistency) , there ability to run the ball and throw screens , and there protection of the ball and sort of acknowledgement to game situations something more the HC alluded to and I think makes sense to as whythey are successful in the manner they are . At So Mis sthey played a spread attack offense with a mobile QB so it wasnt an easy task made only harder by the fact So Miss started 9 of 11 drives at there own 30 or better so pretty good starting field position (others were 24 and 27 yd line)

This seems to be a game also that one would imagine that Boise State had marked off on there schedule . Also Hawaii having to play at home and travel for a FRI game seems like a negative . Remember that Hawaii defeated Boise State last year and went to the Sugar Bowl while Boise went to the Hawaii Bowl (or whatever they call it ) .

Now what I dont know if I can rationalize Fresno 6 turnovers (3ints and 3 fumbles) . Was it just an overrated Fresno team having a bad day ? They didnt exactly look well vs Idaho last week after that game or was Hawaii's defense ? Naturally I am leaning towards it being a Fresno issue more then anything . Again just opinion though .

I know Boise had issues with turnovers @ SoMiss but I will agree Moore doesnt overly impress at QB they typical game manager who can provide a spark at times . The fact they clamped down on SoMiss was must impressive . I had So Miss and under but a fairly decent size play on the home pup. Lucky I had a 2nd H SoMiss and under parlay that got me slightily ahead on that game because SoMiss never really threatened. I keep reading about Funaki's improvement but it wasnt overly impressive at home vs LaTech one of the weakest defenses in the WAC and Fresno one of the more overrated WAC defenses . I did like that Boise ran out the last 7 minutes as well .

I also think the Boise offense will want to step up here as well off a so-so performance and playing at home vs a team with tons of payback on the line. The interesting thing is the Unimpressive games on offense vs BG and So Miss the same thing happened . Boise State scored 3 2nd Q TDs to open up a scoreless game and then basically the 2nd H was just a coast even if it wasnt meant to be it was IMO . Which is interesting for a team laying big points . I think we saw it vs LaTech with them as well . Where they did score but very happy to just run the ball and keep it simple . That game they happened to put some points up . I guess its part of having a good running game , good defense , and young QB really .

So the question is will Boise State go for the throat this game ? On the surface the 2nd H seems to be wide open for Hawaii to climb back in it if they are down 17+ at half. The difference is this game is unlike there others because of of last year and because they can knock Hawaii a few steps back in this years hunt for the WAC Crown.

Of interest to me and I know COunselor doesnt like this angle but its relevant IMO . This is not a typical meeting for Hawaii . They really havent played @ Boise so late in the season before so does the colder weather become an issue ? Should be around 50 I think when the game kickoffs but looked briefly at that . Last time I saw Hawaii playing @ Boise in late OCT they lost 69-3 a few years ago . I am only wondering if the colder weather is another negative for Hawaii here . I think anyone who has played sports understands the bodies reaction to weather hot or cold that it is unaccustomed to. I myself always threw harder playing baseball once the calender turned May here and the weather heated up and by June I was in full stride . Sucks though when scouts are watching you in late March and April and you cant overcome the 45 degree weather . Same deal playing hoops . I dont even need to stretch when its 85 degrees out because I loose on in a matter of minutes . Now that fall is here in NY if I dont get loose in warm ups I am looking at playing maybe the entire 1st H stiff and cold . So adjusting to weather differences is important . Everyone's body adjusts to weather changes but it doesnt happen in 1 day . Thats why playing @ Mile High is always tough for opponents as the lungs have to deal with thinner air.

Also of interest the Boise team ran up 24 2nd Q points @Oregon. So thats a bunch of big 2nd Q for this team . Also all but 13 of those pts by Oregon where scored in the 4th Q down 37-13.

Basically I am trying to look for the best way to approach this game . Really the 2nd Q and 1st H for Boise State seem to be of interest . I would also be suprised though if people teased Hawaii to +34 if that lost as I think best case the margin is 28-31 in a win.

I agree Boise State offense hasnt exploded or done what it needs to but I wonder if the motivation is there to do it here . Also like how they have had HUGE 2nd Qs vs Oregon , BG and @ SoMiss .

Its funny that the total is 52 and 38-14 seems to be a rationalized guess for me here but 31-7 or 35-10 also make aot of sense . I had been interested in the over because I wonder if this game Boise State looks to bust out some. If they get 38-45 then the over obviously looks enticing .

Keys ?
-Short week for Hawaii having to travel to the mainland and 1st cold weather spot .
-Boise defense and Hawaiis defense struggling to stop the run vs a good run offense ..
-payback for losing the WAC title hence a big Bowl


Inside Slant (from Yahoo Sports not my words)



One loss was used as motivation throughout the Boise State football team’s offseason training program this year.

The Broncos’ five-year reign as WAC champions ended last Thanksgiving weekend in Hawaii with a 39-27 loss to the Warriors.

The rematch is Friday night at Bronco Stadium. It won’t immediately decide the conference title like last year’s de facto title game, but the winner certainly has the inside track.

A newspaper clipping documenting the Warriors’ WAC title was posted in the Broncos’ weight room. The loss remains on the players’ minds.

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“That got under everybody’s skin,” senior linebacker Kyle Gingg said. “We’re fired up. We’re ready to get these guys.”

The Warriors are far from the juggernaut they were last season, when they lasted the regular season without a loss and went to the Sugar Bowl behind Heisman candidate Colt Brennan. The offense has been up-and-down since coach June Jones and Brennan departed.

But those aren’t the losses the Broncos are concerned about this week. It’s the one the Warriors delivered last Thanksgiving.

Roster Report:

• WR Titus Young is suspended for at least three games. That began with last week’s game against Southern Miss.

DT Sean Bingham is expected to return after missing the past two games. DT Joe Bozikovich is expected to miss his second straight game.

Strong lean : 1st H Boise State -14

As the total increases the UNDER becomes more attractive IMO ...:cheers:

























 
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Man, I like this game Under as well.

I may play, but I'll likely pass...when I play games on the Blue Turf, seems like I hit at about a 33% clip.
 
Boise 1H, if you can get below 14 is the play, if any... so strong at home, especially 1H. Running game will dominate Hawaii who has to still be exhausted.. they played 4 days ago
 
Total here is way too high based on past history between these schools. Look at how Boise defense is playing at home, and no more June Jones offense in Hawaii. This number should be 47-48.

Biggest play of the weekend will be UNDER 52.5 for me tonight.

Good luck
 
Total here is way too high based on past history between these schools. Look at how Boise defense is playing at home, and no more June Jones offense in Hawaii. This number should be 47-48.

Biggest play of the weekend will be UNDER 52.5 for me tonight.

Good luck

It's this sort of post that is likely to get me off the sidelines tonite...
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Undecided on the O/U here. Both teams can score points, so...I'd be biting my nails all game long if I went Under.
 
Undecided on the O/U here. Both teams can score points, so...I'd be biting my nails all game long if I went Under.


I know what you mean I'm leaning the under. but I feel ya on the nailbiter kinda night. I'll probably play the under say fuck it not watch at all and check later tonite and see what happened. That way there's no stress.
 
What scares me about an Under is mostly the fact I dont like Hawaii's defense playing a team looking to make a point . What that translates into tonight I have no clue. Its one of those games where at the end if Boise dropped 45 or so and people said that iit was suprising I would think they missed a few things about how this game is lining up . This is Boise State's Super Bowl . To Hawaii's credit they have made plays last 2 games on offense when they needed to and alot of Boise success on defense has been situational . Meaning teams have been in position to score but for whatever factor they tend to not . Whether its going for 4th and short and not converting , a turnover , the scoreboard dictating passing up a FG attempt to try for a TD . The Boise State defense is good but not stout in the sense say TCU's is IMO. So Hawaii just might be able to put up some points given the situation of the game and how it plays out .

Still torn on this sucker and not sure what to do ...same 1st H lean ..GL:cheers:
 
What scares me about an Under is mostly the fact I dont like Hawaii's defense playing a team looking to make a point . What that translates into tonight I have no clue. Its one of those games where at the end if Boise dropped 45 or so and people said that iit was suprising I would think they missed a few things about how this game is lining up . This is Boise State's Super Bowl . To Hawaii's credit they have made plays last 2 games on offense when they needed to and alot of Boise success on defense has been situational . Meaning teams have been in position to score but for whatever factor they tend to not . Whether its going for 4th and short and not converting , a turnover , the scoreboard dictating passing up a FG attempt to try for a TD . The Boise State defense is good but not stout in the sense say TCU's is IMO. So Hawaii just might be able to put up some points given the situation of the game and how it plays out .

Still torn on this sucker and not sure what to do ...same 1st H lean ..GL:cheers:

Couldn't agree more, SN. That's exactly why I think I'll stay away from the total. I agree, BSU usually comes out strong in the first half...so, I'm leaning to BSU 1st half or 2nd Quarter right now.
 
I'm currently seeing...


Boise State 1st Quarter -6.5 (-125)

and

Boise State 1st Half -14 (-105)


what do you guys think?
 
Also in Hawaii's case it should be nothed that Funaki only started @ Fresno and well they won . He played okay in relief @ Florida as well . However Hawaii's defense has forced 4 punts , 2punts and no punts @ Fresno . taken a step further 2 of the 4 punts @ Fla were in the 4th Q and 1 of the 2 @ Oregon State were so in 3 games just 6 possession end in a punt and half were basically because the offense wasnt trying really with a tremendous lead.

:popcorn:

Still unclear but hard to pass on thinking about Boise State TT over as well
 
I'm currently seeing...


Boise State 1st Quarter -6.5 (-125)

and

Boise State 1st Half -14 (-105)


what do you guys think?

On paper I think it screams 2nd Q play on Boise State .....on paper....

Hawaii
@ Fla 0-0 after 1 Q then Fla 28-0 2nd Q . (3rd Q Fla 28-0)

@ Oreg St 7-7 after 1 Q then Oreg St 14-0 2nd Q ( 3rd Q Oreg St 17-0)

@ Fresno 9-3bows after 1 Q then Bows 10-6 in the 2nd Q (Fresno 3rdQ 13-10 Fresno)

Boise
idaho State ( iknow joke team) 7-0 after 1 Q then 21-7 in the 2nd Q

vs BG led 6-0 after 1 Q then 14-0 2nd Q for Boise

@ oregon trailed 6-0 then won 2nd Q 24-0

vs LaTech led 7-0 after 1 Q then won 2nd Q 14-3

@So Miss 0-0 after 1 Q then won 2nd Q 24-7

Think Boise has trailed for just about 7 minutes all season and not one second of the 2nd H

:cheers:











 
SN - Just did some research, and Hawaii has only trailed at the end of the 1st Quarter ONCE so far this season.
 
Boise St. -14 1st Half...Come out strong on National T.V. on their OWN turf. Travel gets to Hawaii...

Hawaii +24.5 Game...Boise then takes it easier in the second half, Hawaii scores a few points to make it closer than it looks, covers game.

Hawaii Team Total is 14...Juice is high, but may be a play on my end. Funaki may confuse Boise with his excellent running, so Boise needs to be careful bout blitzing.

Just some thoughts...BOL ALL!!!:cheers:
 
I hate this game . I want to play Boise 1st Q myself but both teams seem to play close the 1st Q and Boise seems to pull away in the 2nd Q while Hawaii has collapsed in 2 of the 3 2nd Qs .....

I cant Hawaii 1st Q even as enticing as it looks based on the 08 season ....

Probably just rolling with Boise State 1st H as I cant get a 2nd Q line on this one . Nothing crazy just 1 unit . Basically a small play for me

BOL
 
Played the 1st Half -13.5 as a normal play . lean strong to the 1st Q but the vig got crazy .

Also think the 1st H goes over and will play that small ...21-7 Boise is all I need ...
 
Giving up on this down some coin and unit left on the game just gonna watch. Boise was about to go up 17-0 IMO and fumbled . Shit happens . ALot of points left off the board only teh 2nd H over interests me. Might drop 1 unit on it . BOL
 
Shit happens . The line was a tad much and Boise State just didnt put the foot on the pedal like I expected . They missed 2 makeable FGs and just had the coasting mentality ....

good hit Hawaii and under backers ..at least Boise won the 2nd H
 
Both of these teams were pretty awful tonight. Spread probably could have went either way.

Boise was consistent through the air, but they decided to kill the clock with 10:00 to go and couldn't get anything going on the ground.
 
Both of these teams were pretty awful tonight. Spread probably could have went either way.

Boise was consistent through the air, but they decided to kill the clock with 10:00 to go and couldn't get anything going on the ground.

Was suprised they couldnt run the ball but they went a tad to conservative IMO . It happens the line was priced to perfection . Boise State didnt do anything impressive and Hawii played as expected . Bad move going on 4th and 1 on the opening drive which Boise moved the ball and settled for 3 pts . The 1st 2nd Q fumble was huge though and of course the 1st missed FG in the 2nd H ....23 would have been great but I cant complain ....:cheers:Sometimes you just lose at least I knew it was a thin margin....
 
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