1-AA Playoffs... Semi-Finals.... 78%

hoopsstar22

Captain of Vanzack's yacht
Applachian State -2.5 - W

Valdosta State +2 - W

Southern Illinois -1.5 - L


2-1 Weekend
34-10 YTD....
 
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Quick Leans....

Richmond @ Appalachian State

Lean - Richmond plus points and ML if offered. They shut down a very powerful option attack last weekend. They limited the Terriers to 180 yards on 60 rushes, off the top of my head. If they can prepare for that, they can certainly prepare for this Mountaineer O, I would think. But remember, this is only a lean.

Delaware @ Southern Illinois

Lean- Over if it's offered, and Delaware +points. I think Delaware may be your next 1-AA Champions. They shut down a very complete Northern Iowa team in their own house, pretty decisively. The Slaukis have a very potent offense, which is why I would lean to the over, but I don't know what to make of their D. They handled a very ho-hum UMass team, that has been boring as could be, so I need to look into this one a little more.

Jut wanted to throw these out real quick, and see if Bull, or CB has anything to add, because I believe they are the only ones that read this thread.
 
This is amazing what your doing Hoop. 78 percent is god like. Cant wait till next year already. Im going to open up a 5dimes account just to play these games. Hell of a season man
 
Quick Leans....

Richmond @ Appalachian State

Lean - Richmond plus points and ML if offered. They shut down a very powerful option attack last weekend. They limited the Terriers to 180 yards on 60 rushes, off the top of my head. If they can prepare for that, they can certainly prepare for this Mountaineer O, I would think. But remember, this is only a lean.

Delaware @ Southern Illinois

Lean- Over if it's offered, and Delaware +points. I think Delaware may be your next 1-AA Champions. They shut down a very complete Northern Iowa team in their own house, pretty decisively. The Slaukis have a very potent offense, which is why I would lean to the over, but I don't know what to make of their D. They handled a very ho-hum UMass team, that has been boring as could be, so I need to look into this one a little more.

Jut wanted to throw these out real quick, and see if Bull, or CB has anything to add, because I believe they are the only ones that read this thread.



First, don't sweat it hoops, you are without a doubt one of the shining stars on the site, so don't worry about the fact that most guys don't chime in with thoughts. It isn't because you don't have great information, but moreso because of a few things that are out of your control...

The main reasons are twofold. First of all, since 5dimes is the only solid book that actually offers these lines consistently, if you don't have an account there, you can't do much with the 1-AA info, since you can't get down on the action. Secondly, 5dimes makes 1-AA extremely difficult for those of us who play significant units per game, because they are so adamant about those 50.00 limits during the week that it almost makes it not worth the hassle to bother when it comes down to it. I can't count how many times I have been frustrated because I see a game I like but I am stuck playing it to win 0.1 units or whatever, because they won't let me play it for a full unit. Just makes it not worth the ROI for me in most cases. By the time they open up the limits, the lines have moved so much that the value is lost, so I am stuck with a situation where I have to go on a 10-0 stretch sometimes, just to clear +1.0 units. Again, the ROI is horrible in that situation.

The reason I like to check our your thread is because I always enjoy reading unique insight into plays from guys who obviously know more than me about certain situations and teams. I am a pretty cocky sob for the most part (what sports investor isn't haha), but I have to admit that when we disagree on a play, 9 times out of 10 you clean my clock, no ifs ands or buts about it. I respect that, as very few guys on here can do that with me (in fact, the greats like Fondy, CKR, Stacks can pretty much mark it down as a guaranteed loss if they are on the opposite side of ol CB haha, just messin with you guys).

With all that said, just keep doing what you are doing, because you definitely have at least one fan on this site who respects and admires what you do, as your thread is one of the few I read pretty much every week, so keep up the great work!
 
I actually sent 5dimes an email letter with some feedback for next season, and the 1-AA limits were one of the things I mentioned, along with late cfb line releases, plus a couple other things. I will post their response here if they reply back to me.
 
Will probably play both but not sure what those plays will be at this point as I am gonna dig deeper into both games between now and Wed so that I can be prepared with estimated lines.

Without any research, I would lean App State over Richmond if line is around a PK, only because Wofford gave Richmond that game IMO, with all the turnovers. It is hard to get into a groove with your running game if you put the ball on the ground 3 times and kill drives with turnovers. Wofford gained 200 on the ground against the Spiders, which while below their average, should have been a lot more had they not shot themselves in the foot multiple times.

I am also leaning SIU slightly over Delaware if the line is close to PK but if the Hens get generous points like last week, then I would take em and the points. This one should be a great one with the national tv exposure and crazy environment. The SIU lean is mainly due to HFA, but we saw what the Hens did in UNI's house, so that is why I would go that route with enough points.

Really Rough Line guesses....I have no idea at this point to be honest
App State -3.5
SIU -3.5
 
<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Fri 12/7</TD><TD noWrap>141 </TD><TD noWrap>Delaware</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_0 name=radiox>+1½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>8:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>142</TD><TD noWrap>Southern Illinois</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_0 name=radiox>-1½ -110 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Richmond at Appalachian State</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#e9eeee><TD noWrap>Sat 12/8</TD><TD noWrap>143 </TD><TD noWrap>Richmond</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_1 name=radiox>+2 -110 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#e9eeee><TD noWrap>4:00PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>144</TD><TD noWrap>Appalachian State</TD><TD noWrap><INPUT language=javascript id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_1 name=radiox>-2 -110 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
As posted above, I sent 5dimes an email earlier today thanking them for the solid job in year 1 with regard to payouts (this was my first year with them, as I was Pinny and Greek last year - still Greek but 5dimes is now my 2nd book). I also included a couple points of feedback and questions regarding 1-AA limits and opening cfb lines for next season as I try to figure out which books to use next cfb.

Here is their response I just received (posted below). Honestly it is kind of a turn off the way it is phrased, but at least it will help make my sportsbook choices clearer in 2008, as there really will be no reason for me to have 5dimes next year since they will continue to release cfb lines hours after key competitors (Greek, BM, etc), and their limits aren't going up on the 1-AA plays from the $50 bucks that honestly just doesn't warrant the time investment involved for me on my cfb plays.

More than likely, I will probably give BM a shot in 2008 since there were so many instances where the early lines were great there but there was no way for me to take advantage of em. Being an early lines player, I missed out not having BM this year, but my original intention was to leverage the 1-AA and obscure plays at 5dimes, but not much to leverage at only 50 bucks a pop.

Hope this helps!

----//----

5Dimes will not be the opener on sunday nights for football in
2008. You'll have to deal with another operation for lines available
the first half hour or so.
The 1-AA lines and limit format will stay as it is unless some other
"quality" operation decides to offer these games earlier than 5Dimes
with a higher limit.
Thank you for your interest in 5Dimes.

Sincerely,
Tony
5Dimes Operations Manager
 
Thanks for the words Signal....

CB-
Thanks for your words, and the email to 5Dimes. That's a little disappointing that they're not going to raise the limits or anything. I'm pretty sure I'll be keeping them though, because the reduced juice they offer is like crack.

Matchbook doesn't always have the correct lines available available, but being able to fall back on 3 or 5 cent juice is huge.

And I can understand why the low limits would make the games not worth your time. And if I continue reaching my seasonal goals, after next season, it won't be worth mine either. But for now, it more than works, and I'll stick to it.
 
As for the games...

CB, you have put me on to Appy State. I need to look into Richmond's D a little more, but the little bit of looking I did today, made me switch my opinion. I think a mobile QB like Edwards might give the Spiders a fit.

And as far as that short line on S. Illinois, I think I may have to jump on that train as well. I think I just made too hasty of leans last night to try and prepare for early releases. However, the lines weren't close to what I had thought, so I may be a little off.

I'm just interested to see what BM puts up on these games, as they don't have anything yet. I'm sure they'll be the same, but I want to see them first.

I have the next 2 days off of work, so I'll try and get my research done.
 
I just locked in Appalachian State -2.5. I have a feeling this will go up more. I think Edwards will be too much for Richmond to contain.

If the Mountaineers can solve their special team woes that I benefited from last weekend, then they should cruise over the Spiders.
 
Line up to 4 +100 on Richmond.
Not with my strongest conviction ever, I'm sticking with the Spiders.
GL all.
Haven't thought about the other one, yet.
 
You might want to check out Heritagesports.com. Delaware is currently +3/ 62/ total. Richmond closed +3/, 65 total. Been betting online for years, (minimum 3 active books), and found Heritage to replace Pinnacle this year. Great site, with -107 during weekday afternoons, and lines up on Sunday nite.
 
Mags- Sorry I wasn't around for the 2h bro. I just got home from work, and didn't get to watch enough of the 1h to get a feel for anything. Hope you found something you liked.

arc- Thanks for the heads up on heritage. I haven't heard much about them, but maybe I'll look into them for next season. Do they carry all the 1-AA games, and have better limits on them? Let me know because I will definitely be looking for a new book next year that has some higher limits on these games.
 
VN call hoops!!!...looks like their trying to go for 3-str8!!

s.illy lookin' good for tomorrow seemed to have been getting better each game, but i'll wait to see wut ur thots are on this
 
Precise-

I really like S. Illy tomorrow. The biggest question mark in the game will be Delaware's defense. They certainly didn't shut down N. Iowa last weekend, but they did enough to get the win. A huge fumble return was the turning point in the game. If they can pull off the same heroics, then they'll win. I just cant get a good feeling for this one, so I doubt I'll hit it.
 
I am getting very close to making a play on Valdosta State +1 @ California, PA.

The more I read, the more I like the Blazers to take this one. This seems to be a D2 version of the SEC/Big 10 debate. Valdosta State plays in a much, much tougher conference, and has a very significant speed advantage.

I may have to make a call to my "weather scouts,"(I'll still never forget that thread), and see what is happening above teh Mason-Dixon line.

Does anyone remember what the opening line was for this one?
 
Guys...just wanted to thank yall for all the great info on this thread. Neither of my sites have had 1-AA lines all year until yesterday.

App state was a win and I am looking at SIU and the over today. Would love to hear finals thoughts from some of you guys.

Really appreciate it...great capping.
 
Adding....

Valdosta State +2

I think the overall team speed, and spread offense will be too much for the Vulcans to handle today. If you look at the general make up of the PSAC, the whole conference just runs the ball. Slippery Rock, Bloomsburg, and Cal are all in the top 25 as rushing teams. The biggest problem Cal is going to have to overcome is their lack of a passing game. They rank #105 of 144 D2 teams with the pass. If they find their selves down, does this team possess the ability to make a comeback, and throw the ball down the field?

Also, don't put too much into a home field advantage here. California, PA is located in BFE, about an hour outside of Pittsburgh. The stadium seats about 6500, and I'd be surprised if more than 4500 show up for the game.

Enjoy the game on ESPNU.
 
I did contact my weather scout, and he said there was about 3 inches of snow on the ground, but nothing yesterday, and nothing going on today.

He also said it was fairly warm, and about 40 degrees out.


:36_11_6:
 
Valdosta State +2 - W - 28-24

Valdosta came out in the 1h with the worst game plan in the world, and rushed for 0 yards, yes 6 attempts for 0 yards. Their DB's had absolutely no idea where the ball was 90% of the time, and made Cal look like passing Gods. All that said, they were by far the superior team. When they decided to run in the 2nd half, they did it with ease. This game shouldn't have been close.


I'm still debating on whether or not to make a play on the 1-AA game today. If I do, I have a feeling it will be on a total, and not a side.
 
ETG-

I can't get a good enough feeling for a side. If I played a side, I'd feel like I was pressing a play. I see S. Illy is -3 +119 at matchbook, which is absolutely comical. People are just taking Delaware because they're the dog.

I still have about an hour left before I have to leave for work. I'll have anything posted by 3:30, if I decide to make a play.
 
ok, i read a pretty good preview and from what I can tell, this is why I lean SoIlly


7-0 @ home
UDel has given up 30+ points 5 times this yr
UDel layover, didn't get back until Tuesday then had to go back to Midwest
SoIlly QB takes care of the ball


The flip side is that UDel offense is high powered. I wanted to bet over but see that it has hit 65 at some places from 61 last night
 
They left on Monday morning, but that is somewhat of a concern.

I'm about to pull the trigger at -1.5
 
Adding....

Souther Illinois -1.5

As ETG pointed out, Delaware didn't leave Iowa until Monday morning, due to some heavy snow. Then, they had to turn around, and head back out to the mid-west after a short week of preparation, while the Salukis got to stay home, and get to work.

As I've said before, the key to this game will be Delaware's defense. They are a little young, and it will be interesting to see how they can handle last week's victory. The Salukis thrive off quick hitters, and are very very dangerous because of their big play capabilities. Throw in a few takeaways, and the Saluki's will put this bitch away.

GL guys. I won't be around for halftime.
 
Southern Illinois -1.5 - L - 17-20

I said Delaware's D was going to be the decision maker, and they made the decision. They came up with a few key INTs, and played a hell of a game. I didn't catch the entire game, but I found myself questioning Southern Illinois' play calling quite a bit. Throw in the 35 missed FGs/botched snaps on special teams, and the outcome could have easily gone in our favor.
 
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