1-AA National Championship Game....

[hoopsstar22]

Delaware +6 - L

Valdosta State +10.5 - W

UW-Whitewater +21 - W

2-1 Championship Week

36-11.... FINAL


Good week last week, and I still like the Southern Illinois loser I had. 34 missed field goals with botched snaps, and a QB that threw 1/2 his season total of INT's in 1 game is never a recipe for success. It works both ways though.



Delaware vs. Appalachian State

The line opened at approximately 4, and now sits at 11.5.

My lean: Delaware with the points.
Both teams arrived in Chattanooga Tuesday.

Appalachian State is coming into this game as the two time defending National Champion, we all know that. But if you think they've done it with defense, you're dead wrong.

Yes, the Mountaineers LOOKED very impressive in their win over Richmond on National TV. That is, their offense looked very impressive. Armanti Edwards is nasty, no denying that. But Appalachian State's defense is down right terrible.

They allowed Richmond, which utilizes a very run heavy game plan, to come back from a 21 point deficit, to tie things up. How does that happen? How does a team that seemed to be down by 2+ TD's the entire game, still rush for 194 yards? Eric Ward isn't near the QB that they will see in Flacco, yet he still was able to keep Richmond in the game.

If Omar Cuff gets anything remotely going on the ground, Flacco is going to pick apart that D, and embarrass them. Cuff rushed the ball for 102 yards on only 21 carries, on what I think is a much, much better D than what Appalachian State will bring. Is it a little bold to say that Delaware will gain 550+ yards on Friday? Perhaps. But that is my prediction.

Last week I said that Delaware's D was the wild card. If they came to play, they would win. Sure enough, they showed up. They forced SI into several huge TOs. The D-line got excellent pressure on Hill, and made a very good QB, uncomfortable in the pocket. They will have a different type of QB to look at this week, but they have proven they can stop a do-all be-all QB like Edwards. They shut down James Madison's Rodney Landers back in week 10, to a tune of 105 total yards.

Another factor that has to be accounted for is who's heads are bigger? Will it be the team who just played an ugly game, and is in the role of a fairly large underdog, who most think will get "crushed"? Or will it be the team that is the 2 time defending National Champions, that defeated Michigan, just threw up 55 points on ESPN2, and will be bombarded by awards on Thursday at the awards banquet? Just a thought.

With all that said, the play will be on Delaware with the points, or no play at all. As I said above, the line sits at 11.5, and I would expect it to go up a little more, just because of the Public Facts. But let's face it, how many people that will be wagering on this game, knows a damn thing about either team, besides what they will read in the ESPN and Sporting News write-ups?

I'm going to look into the D2 and D3 Championships a little more as well. I'll post anything else later.

GL guys.

 

[E.T.G.]

OverrRR?

 

[hoopsstar22]

I'm sure the over will be around 70ish. Which will be very easy to get, on paper at least.

However, you will have to be cautious of Delaware getting any type of lead. They will be very, very capable of chewing up the clock in the 2h, on long methodical drives, that I don't think the Mountaineers will have a hope of stopping.

Now, if Appy somehow jumps out to a 14-0 lead early, this game hits 85+....easy.

I guess I'll have to see what the number is when it's released, and I'm sure the opener will provide a 6+ point middle.

 

[CapTwo]

holy shit, lot of line movement in this one hoops??. 7 1/2 points??

you told me you were the I-AA man, so im going to look into tailing you on this one, and i am not a man to tail. but i know dick about these 2 teams, except watching both of their games in the semis.

34-10 is a helluva record, looks like you had a very profitable year..... maybe I-AA is the way to go. im sure the lines are not as tight and you can spot some inflated ones and such..... good luck on the play!!

 

[hoopsstar22]

Appalachian State lines move with the wind. Earlier in the year, I liked Wofford -4 hosting the Mountaineers.... The line moved to Wofford +8... I said LOL, and took the easy winner. No Run D. Appy hosted run machine Georgia Southern, after a bye week, and it was Edward's first game back in a month from injury. Line moved from GS +10, to GS+20.... They won SU by 3, and it was close only because of a 4thQ comeback. No run D.

The limits on these games make it tough to make any real money. $50 limits during the weekdays, which 5Dimes said they will not move, unless a competitor releases them with higher limits. Once again, thanks CB for the email.

Also, tailing me is tough to do because my $50 bet on the opener, moves the line between 1.5-2.5 points, easy. You can ask anyone who read the thread regularly, that my posted number, was 98% of the time never available.

For instance, when Presbyterian College came to play my alma matter, Coastal Carolina, they were receiving 14 points. Big time wrong team favored. I had to hit +14 and +12 30 seconds apart, for $50 each. It closed at +8 I believe. PC won by 7, despite throwing 7 INT's.

The lines are horrible, but the limits are too.

 

[TWITA]

Good luck hoops, if you play this one.

Thanks for the info.

:Cheers:

 

[hoopsstar22]

It's been 1 hour since I've posted this.... and the line has moved down 3 full points to 8.5......

I suppose they all do that on a Wednesday afternoon right?


:36_11_6:

 

[E.T.G.]

lol hoop, what # would you need to play app st?

 

[CapTwo]

wow. $50 limits? Yeah i use 5 dimes as well, fuck.

didnt know line movement was so crazy in I-AA either....

 

[hoopsstar22]

I just played Delaware +8.5


I think this will be the best line available. At approximately 10:45pm, Bookmaker had Delaware at +6. It is now 10:58, and sits at +5. I will keep a very close eye on it, and probably take the middle if it goes much lower.

I can't believe I didn't hit the 11.5, but I'm sure a few of you did.

 

[Zonacats]

think delaware has a shot at winning this game SU?

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Anyone know which team has played the tougher schedule?

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Hoopsstar2: My line at BJ is at 5.5...should I be waiting for this to go up?

 

[E.T.G.]

Hoop. O/U 68?

 

[Mags]

Damn Hoop, I have +6...is there value at this number, do you see it going up, could use some help here bro.

Thanks!

 

[hoopsstar22]

Zona- Delaware has a good chance of winning this straight up. If they have any kind of late lead, it will be very hard to Appy to get the ball back from them. Cuff will move the chains, and Flacco will be very capable of picking up any 3rd downs, providing his receivers can catch the ball.

Appy'd D will let them hang in the game throughout, that's a given. The real question will just be how Delaware handles Edwards, and if they can make adjustments.

Jimmy- Both teams have played equal schedules. The CAA and the Southern Conferences are the 2 best. Gun to my head, I'd say the CAA is a little better as a whole. And 5.5 will probably be the best you see. The limits are off, and these numbers won't move much from where they are.

ETG- This game is either going to be in the mid 50's, like the Appy/JMU game, or it will be in the 80's, with both teams just shredding each other up. I don't see Edwards rushing for 300 yards again, so he will have to sit back and throw. And as I've said above, Delaware will be capable of burning the clock with the lead. But if they're down by 2 TD's the entire game, you'll see an easy 100.

 

[JimmyHoffa]

Thanks Hoops. I can see some key figures that lead me to the same conclusion in this game: Delaware-SU. Still, I'll take the points.

 

[wreck]

Delaware down to +5.5

 

[hoopsstar22]

For you guys looking at the total....

As far as the O/U, there are 2 scenarios the game plays out.

1. Appalachian State jumps out to a quick 14-0 lead and this game climbs into the 90's. Flacco will more than be able to lead the Hens up and down the field, and keep them in the game.

2. If Delaware gets a 2 possession lead, they will be able to sit on the ball, burn the clock, and keep it out of Apps hands. Appalachian State has 0 run D. James Madison stomped all over them. Wofford stomped all over them. Georgia Southern stomped all over them as 20 point dogs. For the 5 minutes Mike Hart played, he stomped all over them. There's a pattern.

Don't be surprised to see Delaware start the game running the ball down their throats.

 

[CenTexGambler]

HOVA BABY !!!!


see this sucker getting purdy damn close to a triple digit.:seeya:




G o o d L u c k

 

[hoopsstar22]

D3 Stagg Bowl...

UW-Whitewater +21

This will be mainly a bad weather play. As of right now, we're looking at a 40% chance of precipitation at kickoff, with temperatures only being around 35. As the game goes on, the % goes up and up.

This won't effect UW's game plan much, as they have a 2:1 run to pass ratio, and an outstanding back in Justin "I love the" Beaver. They already have some good bad weather games under their belts already, since Wisconsin blows.

 

[hoopsstar22]

D2 National Championship

Valdosta State +10.5

Weather will definitely be a factor in this game as well. It will start raining around 9 in the AM, and continue raining throughout the day. However, if the rain benefits anyone, I would say it benefits the ground game of NWMS. But the Blazers will be preparing for this anyways.

I also expect a let down for NWMS here. THat may sound retarted saying that a team in the National Championship game is going to have a let down, but they are coming off a HUGE victory against the D2 Gods in Grand Valley State.

NWMS has played brides maide the last 2 year in the Championship game to GVS, and to have FINALLY beaten them in the Semi-Finals, they may come out a little flat thinking they have this thing won.

Valdosta didn't look all that sharp last weekend, and I think that's why people are piling on the NWMS band wagon. Their D backs, and 1h offensive game plan were primarily to blame, so hopefully they correct those problems. The rain should help both out tomorrow. Also, they utilize the shotgun offense with the short passes, and they could easily take advantage of a few missed tackles and sloppy footing, and break of some large plays.

 

[hoopsstar22]

Just wanted to wish everyone luck for tonight and into tomorrow, as I probably won't be around.


:cheers:

 

[rwhmobile]

Just wanted to wish everyone luck for tonight and into tomorrow, as I probably won't be around.


:cheers:

NICE RACK

 

[hoopsstar22]

Can anyone fill me in on what happened in the 1st quarter?

I saw exactly 1 play, and that was the Delaware TD, that I guess wasn't a TD? I was out to dinner, walked up to that bar, watched the replay of the Delaware receiver tripping on the 10 yard line, then I saw Cuff punch it in rather easily. 7-6 Appy, with the PAT pending, I turned around and left. I went back after dinner, and it was 21-0 App?

What the fuck happened?

 

[carolinablue]

Can anyone fill me in on what happened in the 1st quarter?

I saw exactly 1 play, and that was the Delaware TD, that I guess wasn't a TD? I was out to dinner, walked up to that bar, watched the replay of the Delaware receiver tripping on the 10 yard line, then I saw Cuff punch it in rather easily. 7-6 Appy, with the PAT pending, I turned around and left. I went back after dinner, and it was 21-0 App?

What the fuck happened?

Replay overturned the call on the field, as the correct call was that Cuff was down a few inches from the goal line.

On 3rd and goal they tried to run left and got stuffed for no gain.
On 4th and goal, they tried to get cute and run a delayed play action play that was a total cluster as the QB ran about 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage before throwing an incomplete pass.
App State drove 99 yards in a couple of plays after that and the rest is history as they say.
Weird ending by the way as all the fans on the sidelines with over 3mins to play was just surreal if you ask me.

Either way, congrats on a amazing season man, you definitely had one for the record books!

 

[hoopsstar22]

Thanks for the insight CB. At game speed, I would have never guess there was anything going on besides a TD. I guess that's the way the ball bounces.

It doesn't really matter now, just was really puzzled when I saw the 21-0.

:shake:

 

[hoopsstar22]

Delaware +6 - L

Valdosta State +10.5 - W

UW-Whitewater +21 - W

2-1 Championship Week


It was a pleasurable season fellas, and I can't wait to do it all over again.

:tiphat: