-1.5 RL

TreyDawg

TreyDawg

Pretty much a regular
-1.5 RL Discussion

August baseball is always an adventure. Bullpen melts, teams packing it in, teams pushing towards a post season spot, dog days, etc. Shit will drive you crazy if you let it. Some guys take a break in August because of it. I'm a little stubborn I guess and I'm always up for an adventure or just want action. So I got to looking over a few things the past day or two and noticed a lot of games decided by 2 or more runs. Got me curious enough to look a little deeper to see if there may be something to it or maybe just a coincidence. I thought I'd share what I've been looking at in hopes of getting a little feedback. Tell me I'm stupid as hell or wasting my time or maybe we can make a little coin here. Just looking for a little participation and all comments are welcome.

I think I've seen enough to take a stab with some small plays to see how this goes. I'll try to update and keep a running record of the different -1.5 categories for tracking purposes. I realize I'll be exposed to losing some bets by a team winning by 1 run but I'm ok with that with the trade off in the extra money I win on the teams that cover. Not worried about a win % here just a + beside the units.

But first, here's the results from August 1st - August 11th I've been looking at going cross eyed after looking at 148 games to start August:

Game Result
~ 43 games have been decided by 1 run: 43/148 (29.06%)
~ 105 games have been decided by 2 runs or more: 105/148 (70.94%)

Favorite Breakdown
~ 87 games won SU by the favorite: 87/148 (58.78%)
~ 27 games won by the favorite were by 1 run: 27/87 (31.03%)
~ 60 games won by the favorite were by 2+ runs: 60/87 (68.96%)

Dog Breakdown
~ 61 games won SU by the dog: 61/148 (41.22%)
~ 16 games won by the dog were by 1 run: 16/61 (26.23%)
~ 45 games won by the dog were by 2+ runs: 45/61 (73.77%)

Home Breakdown
~ 76 games won by the home team: 76/148 (51.35%)
~ 49 games won the home team were by 2+ runs: 49/76 (64.50%)

Home Favorites
~ 99 total home favorites
~ 56 home favorites won SU: 56/99 (56.6%)
~ 35 of those wins were by 2+ runs: 35/56 (62.5%)

Home Dogs
~ 49 total home dogs
~ 20 home dogs won SU: 20/49 (40.81%)
~ 14 of those wins were by 2+ runs: 14/20 (70%)

 Road Breakdown
~ 72 games won by the visitor: 72/148 (48.64%)
~ 56 games won by the visitor were by 2+ runs: 56/72 (77.8%)

Road Favorites
~ 49 total road favs
~ 30 road favs won SU: 30/49 (61.22%)
~ 24 of those wins were by 2+ runs: 24/30 (80%)

Road Dogs
~ 99 total road dogs
~ 42 games won SU: 42/99 (42.4%)
~ 33 of those wins were by 2+ runs: 33/42 (78.6%)



Assuming you have the winning side heres how the August -1.5 looks like through 8/26:

Total -1.5: 249-103 (70.73%)

Favorite -1.5: 147-62 (70.67%)
Dog -1.5: 102-41 (71.32%)

Home -1.5: 113-64 (63.84%)
Home Fav -1.5: 84-48 (63.63%)
Home Dog -1.5: 29-16 (64.44%)

Road -1.5: 137-38 (78.28%)
Road Fav -1.5: 62-14 (81.58%)
 Road Dog -1.5: 75-24 (75.75%)
:wacky:
 
Last edited:
i tried this on saturday.......took oak and toronto both on -1.5........game ended 5-4....losing 2 bets....could had made at least 75 bucks......so wanted to do same for laa and cleveland game but chicken out and that game hit....could had made 80 on that game...

u should try playing teams that had 2-3 straight 1 run games
 
Sorry for all the info in one post. But a few of those %'s were eye opening for me. I'll try and keep track of a few of these different categories through August. Anyone see value here? Thoughts welcomed.

:shake:
 
number2 said:
i tried this on saturday.......took oak and toronto both on -1.5........game ended 5-4....losing 2 bets....could had made at least 75 bucks......so wanted to do same for laa and cleveland game but chicken out and that game hit....could had made 80 on that game...

u should try playing teams that had 2-3 straight 1 run games
Click to expand...



So you played both teams on the RL against each other? Interesting. I'm not sure how I'd feel bout that and if I were gonna bet 2 units I'd prolly just pick one side to put both units on to max my potential win. But at almost 71% overall games being decided by 2 or more runs the numbers were on your side.

I'm not sure exactly my strategy with this yet. But looking at teams with a couple of 1 run games is a thought :cheers:
 
Obviously you have to have the winning side or these %'s mean nothing. But assuming you have the winning side and play the -1.5 these numbers are surprising to me.

August To Date
Total -1.5: 105-43 (70.94%)

Favorite -1.5: 60-27 (68.96%)
Dog -1.5: 45-16 (73.77%)

Home -1.5: 49-27 (64.50%)
Home Fav -1.5: 35-21 (62.5%)
Home Dog -1.5: 14-6 (70%)

Away -1.5: 56-16 (77.8%)
Away Fav -1.5: 24-6 (80%)
Away Dog -1.5: 33-9 (78.6%)
 
Good research.

Thanks for posting.

August is tough in bases for sure. Have watched guys struggle here every year in the 7 years we been doing this gig.
 
@CTG_BAR said:
Good research.

Thanks for posting.

August is tough in bases for sure. Have watched guys struggle here every year in the 7 years we been doing this gig.
Click to expand...

No prob BAR. Hopefully some can make some cash with the info. Just tryin to find a different angle to August baseball since craziness seems to happen. I've certainly struggled out the gate.

BOL :shake:
 
8/12 Results:
Total -1.5: 8-3 (72.7%)

Favorite -1.5: 5-3 (62.5%)
Dog -1.5: 3-0 (100%)

Home -1.5: 5-2 (71.4%)
Home Fav -1.5: 3-2 (60%)
Home Dog -1.5: 2-0 (100%)

Away -1.5: 3-1 (75%)
Away Fav -1.5: 2-1 (66.7%)
Away Dog -1.5: 1-0 (100%)
 
8/13 Results:
 Total -1.5: 9-6 (60%)

Favorite -1.5: 6-1 (85.7%)
Dog -1.5: 3-5 (37.5%)

Home -1.5: 4-3 (57.1%)
Home Fav -1.5: 4-1 (80%)
Home Dog -1.5: 0-2 (0%)

Away -1.5: 5-3 (62.5%)
Away Fav -1.5: 2-0 (100%)
Away Dog -1.5: 3-3 (50%)
 
8/14 Results:
Total -1.5: 7-8 (46.67%)

Favorite -1.5: 5-5 (50%)
Dog -1.5: 2-3 (40%)

Home -1.5: 3-6 (33.33%)
Home Fav -1.5: 3-5 (37.50%)
Home Dog -1.5: 0-1(0%)

Away -1.5: 4-2 (66.7%)
Away Fav -1.5: 2-0 (100%)
Away Dog -1.5: 2-2 (50%)
 
8/15 Results:
Total -1.5: 5-5 (50%)

Favorite -1.5: 3-3 (50%)
Dog -1.5: 2-2 (50%)

Home -1.5: 3-3 (50%)
Home Fav -1.5: 3-2 (60%)
Home Dog -1.5: 0-1 (0%)

Away -1.5: 2-2 (50%)
Away Fav -1.5: 0-1 (0%)
Away Dog -1.5: 2-1 (66.7%)

8/16 Results:
Total -1.5: 11-5 (68.75%)

Favorite -1.5: 4-3 (57.14%)
Dog -1.5: 7-2 (77.77%)

Home -1.5: 2-4 (33.33%)
Home Fav -1.5: 1-3 (25%)
Home Dog -1.5: 1-1 (50%)

Away -1.5: 9-1 (90%)
Away Fav -1.5: 3-0 (100%)
Away Dog -1.5: 6-1 (85.71%)
 
bloodhound said:
Thanks again for dong this Trey.

What have u seen that has surprised u so far??
Click to expand...

No prob Hound and hopefully some have seen something of value here to help make some cash. I've been able to cut my deficit by a couple of units playing the -1.5 instead of the ML and saved a little juice on the ones I've lost.

Couple things standout to me so far:

Total -1.5: 145-70 (67.44%)

I've always thought baseball has always been decided by 1 run the majority of the time. Last August I looked at this as well and the numbers are similar again this August but a little surprised that 2 out of every 3 right now cover the -1.5 if you have the right side.



Road -1.5: 79-25 (75.96%)
Road Fav -1.5: 33-8 (81.48%)
 Road Dog -1.5: 47-16 (74.60%)

If you bet the -1.5 I'd expect the road team to cover more often than the home team with 3 more outs. But 3 out of every 4 so far in August over 104 games? I wouldn't have believed it without seeing it. A little surprising especially the road fav at over 80% if you have the right side. Even though I'd expect the cover more often on the road the rate at which road teams are covering so far is the eye popper.


Dog -1.5: 62-28 (68.88%)
Home Dog -1.5: 17-11 (60.71%)
Road Dog -1.5: 47-16 (74.60%)

This one maybe the most surprising for me so far. I know it's hard enough just pickin winners. And even more so when betting on the inferior team in baseball then asking them to win by at least 2. But assuming the dog wins they're covering at almost 70% when they do. Talk about added value. Take the Yanks today as an example, +122 ML and +190 -1.5 RRL. You can pick up an extra 68 cents if you can handle a little extra risk. The chances of them winning by 1 and losing the bet is worth the risk to me because if they lost SU anyways you're not risking any more than you'd lose if you just play the ML. And less than a third of the dog wins are by exactly 1 run so far in August anyways. The reward is worth the risk IMO. 5 of the last 7 nice priced dogs (+150 or better) from the last couple of days that have won also covered. You had 4 dogs of 60 or more cents win and cover last night alone which would've given you somewhere in the range of 2.5:1 or a little better maybe. You would've sacrificed 2 dog wins playing the RRL cause they won by exactly 1 but the extra winnings would more than make up for it when you're getting better than 2:1 on those 5 wins.


Just my thoughts. How bout you?
 
8/17 Results:

Total -1.5: 12-3 (80%)

Favorite -1.5: 8-2 (80%)
Dog -1.5: 4-1 (80%)

Home -1.5: 5-2 (71.4%)
Home Fav -1.5: 4-2 (66.7%)
Home Dog -1.5: 1-0 (100%)

Away -1.5: 7-1 (87.5%)
Away Fav -1.5: 4-0 (100%)
Away Dog -1.5: 3-1 (75%)


Quite the night for RL covers
 
8/18 Results:

 Total -1.5: 9-6 (60%)

Favorite -1.5: 5-3 (62.5%)
Dog -1.5: 4-3 (57.14%)

Home -1.5: 3-5 (37.5%)
Home Fav -1.5: 3-3 (50%)
Home Dog -1.5: 0-2 (0%)

Road -1.5: 6-1 (85.71%)
Road Fav -1.5: 2-0 (100%)
Road Dog -1.5: 4-1 (75%)
 
TreyDawg, although this is my first post I've been following CTG for a while now. I really like your analysis on -1.5 RL results. I'm testing RL road favorites tonight. We'll see how it works out. GL
 
8/19 Results:

 Total -1.5: 9-3 (75%)

Favorite -1.5: 5-3 (62.5%)
Dog -1.5: 4-0 (100%)

Home -1.5: 4-2 (66.7%)
Home Fav -1.5: 2-2 (50%)
Home Dog -1.5: 2-0 (100%)

Road -1.5: 5-1 (83.33%)
Road Fav -1.5: 3-1 (75%)
Road Dog -1.5: 2-0 (100%)
 
EZMoney93 said:
TreyDawg, although this is my first post I've been following CTG for a while now. I really like your analysis on -1.5 RL results. I'm testing RL road favorites tonight. We'll see how it works out. GL
Click to expand...


Thanks Money appreciate it. You definitely pickin the right one if the numbers hold true. Prolly be on a few road favs tonight myself.

GL to both of us. :shake:
 
TreyDawg said:
Thanks Money appreciate it. You definitely pickin the right one if the numbers hold true. Prolly be on a few road favs tonight myself.

GL to both of us. :shake:
Click to expand...

Worst night for road favorites rl that i've seen this month and still came ahead with a 4-3 record
 
EZMoney93 said:
Worst night for road favorites rl that i've seen this month and still came ahead with a 4-3 record
Click to expand...

Haven't looked at results from last night yet but 4-3 sounds like profit to me.

Road teams are 4-0 covering the -1.5 so far to start Wednesday. Crazy
 
Been following this since it was posted and literally blindly went with 6 bets, all road favorites today based on this research and went 5-1 today with the following:

Cards
RedSox
Braves
Indians
Dodgers
Lost on the Pirates.

Thanks for bringing this to light for us.
 
Tomorrow looks tough with a -155 RL for the Dodgers and Kershaw against Alvarez. I mean, one would think they cover but it's not even worth it and I rarely like trying the -2.

Probably go with the Nationals and the RL with Strasburg over Wood.
 
2013 season:

[h=3]Against The Spread Trends (ATS)[/h] [TABLE="class: data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: datahead"]
[TD="width: 34%"]Category[/TD]
[TD="width: 33%"]Record[/TD]
[TD="width: 33%"]Percent[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Away Teams[/TD]
[TD]1041-851[/TD]
[TD]55.02%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Home Teams[/TD]
[TD]851-1041[/TD]
[TD]44.98%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Favorites[/TD]
[TD]758-1134[/TD]
[TD]40.06%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Dogs[/TD]
[TD]1134-758[/TD]
[TD]59.94%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Away Favorites[/TD]
[TD]244-337[/TD]
[TD]42.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Away Dogs[/TD]
[TD]797-514[/TD]
[TD]60.79%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Home Favorites[/TD]
[TD]514-797[/TD]
[TD]39.21%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Home Dogs[/TD]
[TD]337-244[/TD]
[TD]58.00%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
 
TreyDawg said:
Haven't looked at results from last night yet but 4-3 sounds like profit to me.

Road teams are 4-0 covering the -1.5 so far to start Wednesday. Crazy
Click to expand...

6-1 for me tonight Trey!

Winners
Braves
Cardinals
Red Sox
Indians
Dodgers
Nationals

Loser
Pirates
 
peelpub94 said:
Been following this since it was posted and literally blindly went with 6 bets, all road favorites today based on this research and went 5-1 today with the following:

Cards
RedSox
Braves
Indians
Dodgers
Lost on the Pirates.

Thanks for bringing this to light for us.
Click to expand...

Nice day Pub and glad you found some winners :shake:

None of my business but careful betting anything blindly as they coulda just as easily went 1-5. This is far from perfect but something interesting to follow, at least to me. Continued success :cheers:
 
peelpub94 said:
Tomorrow looks tough with a -155 RL for the Dodgers and Kershaw against Alvarez. I mean, one would think they cover but it's not even worth it and I rarely like trying the -2.

Probably go with the Nationals and the RL with Strasburg over Wood.
Click to expand...

No way in the world I'd pay juice and lay runs. Just me though.

Stras looks good over the Cubbies but I think I'm layin off that one. Stras hasn't been as strong on the road and the price isn't big enough layin the -1.5 for me. GL if you play it though. Definitely falls under the August road fav though :shake:
 
gynecologist said:
2013 season:

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

[TABLE="class: data"]
<tbody>[TR="class: datahead"]
[TD]Category
[/TD]
[TD="width: 33%"]Record
[/TD]
[TD="width: 33%"]Percent
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Away Teams
[/TD]
[TD]1041-851
[/TD]
[TD]55.02%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Home Teams
[/TD]
[TD]851-1041
[/TD]
[TD]44.98%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Favorites
[/TD]
[TD]758-1134
[/TD]
[TD]40.06%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Dogs
[/TD]
[TD]1134-758
[/TD]
[TD]59.94%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Away Favorites
[/TD]
[TD]244-337
[/TD]
[TD]42.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Away Dogs
[/TD]
[TD]797-514
[/TD]
[TD]60.79%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Home Favorites
[/TD]
[TD]514-797
[/TD]
[TD]39.21%
[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: datarow"]
[TD]Home Dogs
[/TD]
[TD]337-244
[/TD]
[TD]58.00%
[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
Click to expand...

peelpub94 said:
Awesome chart, thanks. Must be the funny business of August bucking the trends here.
Click to expand...


:shake:

Was wondering what the YTD was on these and how much variance there's been in August. That's just crazy the difference. Thanks for lookin that up Gyno. Always like your stuff :thumbsup2:
 
gynecologist said:
How about +1.5 s

I heard sharps bet these..
Click to expand...

I've never looked into this side of things. I suppose if you reversed the chart you posted above it would give us an idea of how the +1.5 has done YTD. I'd definitely entertain the +1.5 with a + sign beside it. Stros from last night come to mind.

How do the sharps bet these?

:shake:
 
8/20 Results:

 Total -1.5: 14-2 (87.5%)

Favorite -1.5: 7-1 (87.5%)
Dog -1.5: 7-1 (87.5%)

Home -1.5: 4-2 (66.7%)
Home Fav -1.5: 2-1 (66.7%)
Home Dog -1.5: 2-1 (66.7%)

Road -1.5: 10-0 (100%)
Road Fav -1.5: 5-0 (100%)
Road Dog -1.5: 5-0 (100%)

8/21 Results:

 Total -1.5: 12-3 (80%)

Favorite -1.5: 10-2 (83.33%)
Dog -1.5: 2-1 (66.7%)

Home -1.5: 4-3 (57.14%)
Home Fav -1.5: 4-2 (66.7%)
Home Dog -1.5: 0-1 (0%)

Road -1.5: 8-0 (100%)
Road Fav -1.5: 6-0 (100%)
Road Dog -1.5: 2-0 (100%)
 
18 road team wins (11 favs and 7 dogs) the last 2 days. They've covered the -1.5 RL every time! :shocked:
 
TreyDawg said:
I've never looked into this side of things. I suppose if you reversed the chart you posted above it would give us an idea of how the +1.5 has done YTD. I'd definitely entertain the +1.5 with a + sign beside it. Stros from last night come to mind.

How do the sharps bet these?

:shake:
Click to expand...



Sharps wager on +1.5s with juice.. Those lines are tight as hell dog.

If you see dog RL's hit over 60%, historically they hit a little better than that.. Thats why the juice is so high, cause any team has like a 40% chance of winning any given day but if a team gets that run and a half the %'s even go higher. So if you have a team that has a 60% chance of covering the +1.5 and you are giving -135 there is some value there.. Sharps were all over SD +1.5 -140 yesterday. Pinny had it -152 and it closed -136.

Considering runs are hard to come by in Petco, Pirates don't score many runs.. you can see why..
 
good stuff fellas. I play Alt RL's and RL's a lot in bases. One bet I try to avoid is the RL on home teams. I get 3 less outs so disadvantage for me.

Good luck and keep it up!
 
gynecologist said:
Sharps wager on +1.5s with juice.. Those lines are tight as hell dog.

If you see dog RL's hit over 60%, historically they hit a little better than that.. Thats why the juice is so high, cause any team has like a 40% chance of winning any given day but if a team gets that run and a half the %'s even go higher. So if you have a team that has a 60% chance of covering the +1.5 and you are giving -135 there is some value there.. Sharps were all over SD +1.5 -140 yesterday. Pinny had it -152 and it closed -136.

Considering runs are hard to come by in Petco, Pirates don't score many runs.. you can see why..
Click to expand...

Lines are definitely tight as a virgin's sweet spot. I can definitely see the value in getting a run and a hook especially in Petco, against a team not scoring, backing someone like the Fish with Fernandez on the hill with the run and a hook, or with a dog who's scoring run (i.e. Stros the last couple). I guess you have to find that value and those given spots. I'm a sucker or the + and I guess that's my downfall sometimes. I see the logic though. Appreciate the thoughts Gyno. :shake:


So White Sox +1.5 -150 on this side of things today maybe as the example?
 
wizardofodd said:
good stuff fellas. I play Alt RL's and RL's a lot in bases. One bet I try to avoid is the RL on home teams. I get 3 less outs so disadvantage for me.

Good luck and keep it up!
Click to expand...

I'm a sucker for those big + money tickets too Wiz and agreed on the home team RL. Considered the Redlegs today and glad I stayed away.

Although I'm considering the Gigantes and Redbirds on the RL tonight. FML someone talk me off the ledge. :faceslap:

GL today Wiz :shake:
 
8/22 Results:

 Total -1.5: 4-5 (44.4%)

Favorite -1.5: 3-3 (50%)
Dog -1.5: 1-2 (33.3%)

Home -1.5: 2-2 (50%)
Home Fav -1.5: 2-2 (50%)
Home Dog -1.5: 0-0 (0%)

Road -1.5: 2-3 (40%)
Road Fav -1.5: 1-1 (50%)
Road Dog -1.5: 1-2 (33.3%)

8/23 Results:

 Total -1.5: 12-3 (80%)

Favorite -1.5: 6-3 (66.7%)
Dog -1.5: 6-0 (100%)

Home -1.5: 6-1 (85.7%)
Home Fav -1.5: 5-1 (83.3%)
Home Dog -1.5: 1-0 (100%)

Road -1.5: 6-2 (75%)
Road Fav -1.5: 1-2 (33.3%)
Road Dog -1.5: 5-0 (100%)

8/24 Results:

 Total -1.5: 12-3 (80%)

Favorite -1.5: 8-0 (100%)
Dog -1.5: 4-3 (57.1%)

Home -1.5: 7-1 (87.5%)
Home Fav -1.5: 5-0 (100%)
Home Dog -1.5: 2-1 (66.7%)

Road -1.5: 5-2 (71.4%)
Road Fav -1.5: 3-0 (100%)
Road Dog -1.5: 2-2 (50%)

8/25 Results:

 Total -1.5: 11-4 (73.3%)

Favorite -1.5: 6-2 (75%)
Dog -1.5: 5-2 (71.4%)

Home -1.5: 6-1 (85.7%)
Home Fav -1.5: 3-1 (75%)
Home Dog -1.5: 3-0 (100%)

Road -1.5: 5-3 (62.5%)
Road Fav -1.5: 3-1 (75%)
Road Dog -1.5: 2-2 (50%)

8/26 Results:

 Total -1.5: 9-1 (90%)

Favorite -1.5: 6-1 (85.7%)
Dog -1.5: 3-0 (100%)

Home -1.5: 6-0 (100%)
Home Fav -1.5: 5-0 (100%)
Home Dog -1.5: 1-0 (100%)

Road -1.5: 3-1 (75%)
Road Fav -1.5: 1-1 (50%)
Road Dog -1.5: 2-0 (100%)
 
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