Red,
Yes, the public won in '05, but it was FUCKING REVENGE in '06! LOL.
Can't speak for BAR, but my philosophy is to be on the side of the book. So if the posted number is Team A -5 and I see an inordinate amount of wagers being taken on Team A, yet the line doesnt' budge, that tells me one of two things:
Either the book has enough money on Team B that they are balanced OR they are taking a position. Pinnacle used to (and I bet they still do) take a position quite a bit. That's the side I wanna be on. If they have enough money on the side that has fewer bets, that tells me that bets being taken on Team B are significantly greater then those on Team A. I'm gonna play Team B in that spot. I believe in Sharps. I believe they are better then 90% of the people that play this game of ours.
This works for me. In CBB, I've won over 15 units 4 straight years by simply applying these theories and tweaking as needed. I can't tell you shit about half the teams I bet in CBB, and I don't want to know. Now, I believe the strategies are more profitable in CBB, due to the amount of games being played. Before the season, I broke my CBB records down to show the results by day. Wouldn't ya know it, I turned a 8.55% higher profit on Saturday than any other day of the week.
BTW, really enjoying this thread....