1/29 Over-Inflated Line: Value Play Or Sucker Bet?

Gorgolon Lives

The Reverend of CTG
I'm seeing PHX open at 7 in Minnesota, and I'm confused. PHX B2B and laying 1.5 more points in Minny than Cleveland? The spot is great for Minny. First game back home after a horrendous 1-4 road trip out west. Minny played Phx recently and lost by 20+ without KG or Rickey D. Initial take would be Minny with the points and probably even a small ML play. The problem is this will probably be MOST people's initial take, so is this a sucker play or a value play? Thoughts...
 
BeLIEve - memory serving me correctly, PHX has absolutely owned Minny in recent times. Plus, PHX is covering so many road games their lines had to start to grow. Its surely at the stage where people play them blindly no matter what the line (14-4 ATS last 18 on the road).
 
Its so hard to pin value on teams like Dallas and Pho IMO. The line is 1.5 pts higher but Cle is better then Minny and they lost by 15. So 5 wasnt big enough not even close....

Minny traveled to Pho and yes they were shorthanded but at 16.5 lost by 30...does it motivate them here? Hopefully but not sure what that means really. KG and Davis play this one but you cant say PHO is expensive here...

Guess the best tings for Minny are revenge and Suns losing past 2 ATS when playing back to back...
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Believe- It's close, but over 7, I would have to lean towards Minny on that one. I am going to wait on this one until tomorrow.
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First, back off the line and take a reality check. Do you really want to bet the Twolves against the suns? I wouldn't...especially right now. But as you say, the line is shaded against the Suns, AND the Suns have been allowing an awful lot of backdoor covers...at least at home. As Crimes says, they've been doing astonishingly well ATS on the road, but many of those were awfully short numbers (-3 to -5) considering the talent level of the opposition. Not that it's wrong...no...but if the suns win those games (and they have been), then they're very likely to cover, as well.

right now, matchbook has the line at -6.5, so if you like the suns, it may get mroe reasonable and less trappish.

I personally don't believe in trap lines. I think the books set a line to where they think they might get 50/50 action. Seems to me what is right here would be about -5, but the "everyone knows the Suns'll cover that" syndrome would then force them to move the line up a couple points. Nothing trappish about it, but there's only value there if you think the Twolves will perform.

And as Nut says, recently the Suns have demolished the twolves...winning 6 of the last 7, and covering 5 ATS.

If the lines drop much more, I may be play the suns yet again...
 
If you break it down away:

Suns 8-3 <6 or less
Suns 2-4 >6 or more
Suns 4-1 Dog

The three occassions that PHO failed at -6 or less were in Chicago w/o Hinrich , in GS w/o Davis missed by the hook and opener of the season...

I am not a big believer in traps . As I said if you know where the line should be then usually it makes sense. This line doesnt seem odd to me at all. Minny has been treated like a medicore team all season. If you go back you can see fairly early on they were dogged to LAC at home. Most Western Conference teams that were very solid where chalk in Minny. Thetwist is Minny has performed well in that role. As far as reverse movement and such I think thats basically useless. The line moves on money and money is what sportsbooks work on. So betting pcts tend to be useless IMO. If you want to be a fade the public type my opinion is wise up and fade the games which have lopsided money splits...to me thst fading the public...just my two cents.....

I just dont like either here cause I can make cases for both....
 
Expect another win but no cover for many reasons. Lets not forget they play the Spurs next who have beaten them the last 3 times they have met as well as 7 of the last 10 times they have played. gl
 
If you break it down away:

Suns 8-3 <6 or less
Suns 2-4 >6 or more
Suns 4-1 Dog

The three occassions that PHO failed at -6 or less were in Chicago w/o Hinrich , in GS w/o Davis missed by the hook and opener of the season...

I am not a big believer in traps . As I said if you know where the line should be then usually it makes sense. This line doesnt seem odd to me at all. Minny has been treated like a medicore team all season. If you go back you can see fairly early on they were dogged to LAC at home. Most Western Conference teams that were very solid where chalk in Minny. Thetwist is Minny has performed well in that role. As far as reverse movement and such I think thats basically useless. The line moves on money and money is what sportsbooks work on. So betting pcts tend to be useless IMO. If you want to be a fade the public type my opinion is wise up and fade the games which have lopsided money splits...to me thst fading the public...just my two cents.....

I just dont like either here cause I can make cases for both....

Fading the public is a moneymaker if you know how to do it. Using wagerline isn't gonna cut it, because on games of 4 points or less the % being bet on the moneyline is just as important as the spread. To say that reverse movements are useless is a bit ignorant, especially when talking about totals. The odds aren't set with the sharps in mind, they are set with the public in mind.

Right now, I'm seeing 73% of the 6,000 wagers taken being written on Phx minus the points, 78% written on the Suns ML. Yet a high volume book such as Olympic has dropped the line from an open of -7 to -5.5. That tells me that the bets being taken on the Twolves side are significantly greater then those being taken on the Suns side....afterall, the books want to balance the action right?

Looking at the game from a capping perspective, I think "5.5" is a fair number. I made Phx -3 yesterday against Cleveland, and my numbers show that Cleveland is a better home team than Minny, so making a 5.5 is fair. Minny has revenge and mind and recently snapped their funk by beating the Clippers. However, I think Red said it best, "do you really want to back the Twolves"? Well, maybe, if the price is right.
 
The problem is most people dont know how to use the data( obviously you do) but comment on it. As a whole its useless IMO. All so called sharp movement does for me is verify my feelings or thoughts. I know what a bad line is before the so called sharps hit it . I just dont bet 10K a game.


The bottomline is IF respected action is being taken on Minny its due to the situation not a bad line. Which you have said is fair. You have to know why you are betting a game or you will never be the one with the best line and always reactionary.

Just cause SI has certain data doesnt mean much to me. I look a there numbers every day and see no consistent correlation. You are led to believe the big money is on Minny but is it? To me respected sharps are trying to cover there trails not advertise there big plays. Which is why I dont buy the SI data. I just know where this discussion would go..

I am not saying your wrong by any means Smh. I jsut started commenting in this thread before there was much data on it. Is it hard to believe the Suns are streaking and not going to have the pct skewed in there favor. To me this is common sense. If anyone is gonna fade the Suns there are going to do it situational. Does that mean cause you have reverse movement its automatic Minny wins ATS?

The point was cap the game and make a decision based on that. Public perception is much more then some SI data....

BOL today
 
smh, how does more money being on a side translate into that side being the winner or loser?

Lets say that 10 guys bet Phoenix for 100 dollars. Thats a stake of 1000 on Phoenix.

One guy bets 1500 on Minnesota. Thats a 1500 stake on Minnesota.

Now, for a concensus..91 percent of the "bets" were placed on Phoenix at a 10-1 ratio. Those are smaller bettors who typically will fall into the "square" category.

The gentleman that bet 1500 would typically be labeled a "sharp" or something close to that due to the money he wagers.

That 1500-100 ratio could also precipitate a line move.

So, the line moves down with majority on Phoenix. That is the reverse line movement. A lot of people would rather be on the "sharp-smart" side than the "square" side.

(Please note I used smaller numbers to make the reading easier)
 
smh, how does more money being on a side translate into that side being the winner or loser?

Red,
BAR covered it.

It defiently does not translate into a winner or loser, but I'd much rather be on the book side, which typically correlates with that of the sharp players.

Sportsnut,

I incorporate the SI numbers into my capping, they are not the end-all-be-all for me. I make my own numbers in the NBA and NFL. I had a wonderful season in the NFL, and alot of those plays were fade plays. The NBA has been rough going all year thus far, but the "fade plays" are 61-54-1 or 53%. Used to be with reduced juice this was enough to produce a profit and with the ML plays sprinkled in, it still is. SI bases it's fade plays on total monies wagered, not so much bet %, but they typically correlate. This system is much more effective in college hoops.

These strategies do work, if they didn't then how come so many people pay alot of money for the Don Best service? The key is to have a system set in place and follow it to a tee. For me, it's a great way to help verify plays, point me in the right direction, or let me know that I'm dead wrong in my thinking.

Another word on reverse line movement: While, it's to be expected, many times, especially when an injury is concerned, the market will over-correct itself, presenting an opportunity to play the other side. A good example of this was the Cavs/Sixers game on Friday. Where Cleveland opened a 4.5 favorite and closed a 1 point dog. NO PLAYER in the NBA is worth 5.5 points on a the betting line.
 
Red...a sharp is going to win money over a season..they are looking for a percentage of 57-60 I believe...

Squares are what they are
 
Red...a sharp is going to win money over a season..they are looking for a percentage of 57-60 I believe...

Squares are what they are

Okay, here's what you're saying.

A sharp is someone who wagers more. A square is someone who wagers less. Someone who wagers more is going to win over the long run.

smh says he would rather be on the side of the books.

I'm asking you folks to analyze the assumptions and rationale of the statements.

Which is essentially, "I desire to be on the same side as the fellow who wagers more"

And I'm asking for a rationale behind the idea that someone who wagers more necessarily knows more than the "public" does.

And BAR, even sports insights concedes that the public won the shit out of the 05 NFL season...

Perhaps I'm simply a stupid square, but following the reverse line movement theory necessarily dictates taking the worse line. And that doesn't strike me as a good long-term proposition.

could you please continue trying to explain to me?
 
Its funny I agree with all 3 guys here . I have to say that SMH is the one guy I think has a handle of fading the public theory. I highly respect his comments and contributions. Mostly cause he understands its a market and not about gambling.

Going back to what BAR said I disagree some. A sharp is a simply a designation. You fall into two categories sharp or square. In the books mind you are one or the other. Second as we know its just a label it means nothing. A sharp's label has nothing to do with winning pct. Its more about a respected bettors action. There is no criteria pct wise to be labeled a sharp. You can go back and tead all the SI articles that explain what a book considers a sharp. Its about gusy who win long term and always seem to be getting the best line. The books respect that action. So if multiple sharp players are hitting a game they move it to protect themselves. This is how I think of a sharp. A sharp is sort of the equivalent to guy who trades and works at Goldman Sachs. Cause of his label and status he is heaped heavy praise. However just like that trader at Goldman you might be trying to mimic his moves chances are you will never know exactly what he is doing. Its called frontrunning really. At times maybe his objective is to knock down a line and play the other side. Just like traders at Goldman , Morgan Stanley etc they are so many to attempt to follow and they are trying to be discret. Sharp means respected just like working at at a big brokerage house. If your offering a trade / price and your guy at Goldman calls up and says I'll take a 100 million you know oh shit I better change that price it must be wrong. Same logic with sports wagering. Regardless of what other people are doing if a books sharp bettors are hitting something heavy they have to adjust price to reduce risk. It doesnt guarnatee anything for the future or for any bet. To me its coattailing at its worst level.

I respect that red doesnt buy into the whole arguement. Personally to me as I said its a signal. If it moves the way I expect I say job well down and pat myself on the back. If its going against me I do look at my play again and ask myslef if I am missed something and adjust accordingly. Maybe it does scare me to a no play or reducution. Or maybe nothing at all...

I think saying that something hit at 53% is only having confidence in medicority....I play a ton of games per month and rarely dip below 55%....doesnt make me great but it shows the confidence in my ability. Its saying I know worst case they will be around even and best case I will grind a small profit....Ijust dont like that approach...

Why do people pay for the Don Best service? Cause they cant do it on theer own I guess. I love everything you do but I dont someone else to tell me if a line is off or tight. I know when a line moves why it moved w/o any service or contact from vegas. It all boils down to understanding lines. Which you clearly do.

The injury games. One could probably go back to my first posts on Covers and see how I preaced about playing NBA sides when a star was mising if they were the underdogged or if they were the fav and the dog became heavily played.

At the end I agree with SMH in that you need to know how to use the info and implement it. That really was my whole point 99% of the stuff I come across seems to show that people dont.....not knocking the theories as much as I am the way its loosely applied.
 
Another misconception is a SHARP is not someone who wagers more. Money wagered has nothing to do with that label. It seems lost that true sharps who move lines do there best to hide there action. Using runners or internet books in other peoples names....
 
Red,

Yes, the public won in '05, but it was FUCKING REVENGE in '06! LOL.

Can't speak for BAR, but my philosophy is to be on the side of the book. So if the posted number is Team A -5 and I see an inordinate amount of wagers being taken on Team A, yet the line doesnt' budge, that tells me one of two things:

Either the book has enough money on Team B that they are balanced OR they are taking a position. Pinnacle used to (and I bet they still do) take a position quite a bit. That's the side I wanna be on. If they have enough money on the side that has fewer bets, that tells me that bets being taken on Team B are significantly greater then those on Team A. I'm gonna play Team B in that spot. I believe in Sharps. I believe they are better then 90% of the people that play this game of ours.

This works for me. In CBB, I've won over 15 units 4 straight years by simply applying these theories and tweaking as needed. I can't tell you shit about half the teams I bet in CBB, and I don't want to know. Now, I believe the strategies are more profitable in CBB, due to the amount of games being played. Before the season, I broke my CBB records down to show the results by day. Wouldn't ya know it, I turned a 8.55% higher profit on Saturday than any other day of the week.

BTW, really enjoying this thread....
 
The moral of the story: if you are Betting Against the Public, focus on the games where there is a lot of Public interest.

taken from SI....you wont to be on the games that the book have more at stake on if you follow this method. Not chasing every game that has some sort of discrepancy..
 
The moral of the story: if you are Betting Against the Public, focus on the games where there is a lot of Public interest.

taken from SI....you wont to be on the games that the book have more at stake on if you follow this method. Not chasing every game that has some sort of discrepancy..

Amen....that's why I try to stay away from the "crap" games in CBB.
 
Red,

Yes, the public won in '05, but it was FUCKING REVENGE in '06! LOL.

Can't speak for BAR, but my philosophy is to be on the side of the book. So if the posted number is Team A -5 and I see an inordinate amount of wagers being taken on Team A, yet the line doesnt' budge, that tells me one of two things:

Either the book has enough money on Team B that they are balanced OR they are taking a position. Pinnacle used to (and I bet they still do) take a position quite a bit. That's the side I wanna be on. If they have enough money on the side that has fewer bets, that tells me that bets being taken on Team B are significantly greater then those on Team A. I'm gonna play Team B in that spot. I believe in Sharps. I believe they are better then 90% of the people that play this game of ours.

This works for me. In CBB, I've won over 15 units 4 straight years by simply applying these theories and tweaking as needed. I can't tell you shit about half the teams I bet in CBB, and I don't want to know. Now, I believe the strategies are more profitable in CBB, due to the amount of games being played. Before the season, I broke my CBB records down to show the results by day. Wouldn't ya know it, I turned a 8.55% higher profit on Saturday than any other day of the week.

BTW, really enjoying this thread....

It works best in CBB? Clearly I agree and for simple reasoning. The most lined games on the board is bound to have the most mistakes. Of course your best day was Saturday...its the biggest schedule.

Nothing wrong with what your doing but again its nothing to do with sharps really. It still boils sown to handicapping and lines. bad lines are easiet to find and exploit on heavy volume days.

Again I completely agree with your comments and if I respect anyone who is into fading the public you are the one...you are the guy with the handle on it.
 
Amen....that's why I try to stay away from the "crap" games in CBB.

Out of the millins of people who talk about public and sharps you are the guy who I knows understands it.

So dont think my comments are knocking you if I am knocking the whole logic of it. Cause it can work if you have a high understanding of it..
 
Red,

Yes, the public won in '05, but it was FUCKING REVENGE in '06! LOL.

Can't speak for BAR, but my philosophy is to be on the side of the book. So if the posted number is Team A -5 and I see an inordinate amount of wagers being taken on Team A, yet the line doesnt' budge, that tells me one of two things:

Either the book has enough money on Team B that they are balanced OR they are taking a position. Pinnacle used to (and I bet they still do) take a position quite a bit. That's the side I wanna be on. If they have enough money on the side that has fewer bets, that tells me that bets being taken on Team B are significantly greater then those on Team A. I'm gonna play Team B in that spot. I believe in Sharps. I believe they are better then 90% of the people that play this game of ours.

Being on the side of the book is an interesting statement. I suppose a related subject is my next question......

How do you know when pinnacle takes a position?
 
Being on the side of the book is an interesting statement. I suppose a related subject is my next question......

How do you know when pinnacle takes a position?

The price they charge, OR when they differ from the market. A good example in the NFL this year. On two occasions that I can remeber Pinny had -9 or 9.5 on a game when the rest of the market was showing a 7 or 7.5.

Obviously they were looking to attract action on the dog, and since the odds of a game falling on 8 or 9 are not that great, they took they risk of being middled.

Price charge occurs more on totals than anything else. Sometime they'll charge -130 on say the over of game. Seeing that, is an indication that the total is gonna go up. So, if you like the over, find a square book and hit it, if you like the under, be patient.
 
If you break it down away:

Suns 8-3 <6 or less
Suns 2-4 >6 or more
Suns 4-1 Dog

Suns have owned the Wolves in recent years and
beat them badly in last meeting at home. With the line at 5
I see the same thing as the Cleveland game and many recent
5 Pt spreads lately. You have to like the Suns Chances tonite.
I'll bet them but thats my 2 cents.:cheers:
 
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Agree here with Smhs response on taking positions...

They did that when Chi hosted Det . They held that +9 -130 line when it was -7.5 everywhere else. I pointed out that Pinny was taking a position and Chi smoked them. Again though if you already know the line wasnt bad you were on the right path. People saw value in DET when I wasnt there and Pinny knew that...
 
I figured all of those things were pinny's computers' reactions to money being on the games.

smh, please tell me you use matchbook...you can actually see where the money is.....and how much.
 
Nut..I agree with what you say..

thats why I use terms like sharp, smart and others to relate. I was just generally trying to use a word(s) that the general members here would be used to.

Line is 4.5 now...wow. All the Minnesota value is gone now.
 
I figured all of those things were pinny's computers' reactions to money being on the games.

smh, please tell me you use matchbook...you can actually see where the money is.....and how much.

Red,

In the current environment we are playing in, I've found matchbook to be a savior! I love that place. I'm able to get + odds on a ton of dogs so far...
 
I also try to be on the vegas side of games more often than not, but I look around online and it seems everyone likes MIN wheater or not they fade the public or it doesnt matter to their style. PHX just may be a public winner tonight.

If they lose on the floor or dont cover in shady fashion what will we all say after the game. wow great job by MIN you guys played you asses off w/ the best team and almost won. or will we say vegas knew who was going to win and by how many before the game even started

I mentioned elsewhere there could actually be enough "sharp action" (for lack of abetter term) on this game to give PHX another public winner
 
I mentioned elsewhere there could actually be enough "sharp action" (for lack of abetter term) on this game to give PHX another public winner

Now this is a statement I find truly baffling. How does too much sharp action suggest a winner for the public? This is the precise OPPOSITE of what the others are saying...

confused.gif
 
Now this is a statement I find truly baffling. How does too much sharp action suggest a winner for the public? This is the precise OPPOSITE of what the others are saying...

confused.gif


the public doesnt lose every time or else they wouldnt be the public and if they did lose every time the people who go against them would never lose a game and be rich, you have to pick your spots. I think other public faders know what Im trying to say, can anone else say it better?
 
I know exactly what smh212 is saying about pinny's lines I used to watch them like a hawk all week in the nfl and it usually paid off when a line is too high play the fav when its seems too good to be true take the dog you should win 60-70% of the time imo, except when you have a situation like this. People who bet like sharps tend to bet more money on a game imo. lets say 10 people who bet the public way (what should happen) thats 10 people betting 100 a game and 1000 bucks for vegas, but since not as many sharp betters out there only 4 of them bet on MIN but many of them do this for a living and may be betting 500 a game. thats 2000 on min and only 1000 on phx. vegas would actually want phx to win this game.

now I dont have all of the numbers for how much money is on every game, nobody does, we can only speculate
 
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