Phoenix/Charlotte
As Killa says this a gut check game for the Suns. They certainly would be digging themselves a hole by going 1-3 to start the trip. Looking at the Suns since they made the trade with Charlotte they are 4-5 SU on the road with and 8 point win over OKC, 12 point win over Mem, 6 point win over LAC, and a 4 point win over Toronto. None of those teams were playing as good as Charlotte is when the Suns played them. Thunder would be the closest candidate and they shot 53% vs the Suns in their 8 point loss. Only win that the Suns have had in their last 13 games that I can be impressed with was a blowout of Dallas. Amare isn't happy with his touches and nobody is playing a lick of defense. 9 games now since they've held anybody below 100 points.
Charlotte on the other hand has been more than competitive playing at home. Blowout win over Memphis (which I was on the wrong side of), 2 point loss to the Spurs in a game that they dominated the 2nd half, 5 point OT win over Portland, 8 point win over Boston in OT, and a 10 point win vs MLW. Broadway Joe called this out a week or so ago about the Cats being undervalued at home and he's 100% right. Only 3 of their 17 home games since Thanksgiving have been decided by more than 5 points and one of those went to OT while another was the Cavs during their covering streak and the third being a 7 point loss to GSW. Just an extremely tough group to beat convincingly on their home court. This is their last home game for two weeks as they head out on a 5 game WC road trip.
Will be hoping for the line to move up to 4/4.5+ and I'll be playing the Cats. Likely play at 3.5 as well. Think this is a last possession game at worst.
Dallas/Detroit
I think Dallas is the tonic to end Detroit's rather sizable Under streak.
I think BetCrimes is dead on. Probably another way to play Dallas in fact. Let's be honest the Mavericks aren't going to win this game with their stellar D. Looking at some of the teams that have managed to rack up 100 points on Dallas recently one wonders if they are even sending 5 guys back to play D. When Eric Gordon and Charlie V are both clearing 30 on your D it's time to scratch your head. One big worry is the fact that MLW dropped 133 in what was a spectacular performance. Still only asking either team to reach 95 in this one. Pistons have been destroying bad offenses, but Indy, Denver, NO and Utah have all reached the 90 point mark in reg. during the Pistons last 8 games with the Thunder hitting 89. Appreciate BC pointing this out as it's probably a safer way to play Dallas as I don't see how they could cover and have this one go under. May bet this tonight as I have no idea where this line will head, but I can't really see this one drop much as much as I could see it rise to 185 or so.
Definite lean over 182.
Houston @ Indy
Keeping a close eye on Artest as he and McGrady practiced on Thursday. McGrady supposedly has already been ruled out, but you never know with Artest. He's a warrior and if they'll let him play he will. McGrady on the other hand won't play until he gets his proper manicure and wax job.
Indy probably undervalued here as they've 6 of 8 while the Rockets have won 6 of 7. Looking deeper the Pacers have to be a bit road weary playing 7 of 9 on the road against extremely stiff competition (den, pho, lal, gsw, utah, noh, sas). BRUTAL. Two home games against DET and TOR were both victories. Matter of fact they've won their last 3 home games and that's the only 3 home games they've played in January. Still impressed with some of their road losses as they either won or lost by a possession in 4 of their 7 road games against some serious competition. When Houston rolls into Indy the Pacers aren't going to be overly impressed by the level of competition especially when the Rockets are starting Scola, Battier, Alston and Wafer.
Houston has impressed lately beating the jazz, nuggets and heat at home along with the Celtics on the road. A bit tough for me to gauge in all honesty. Is this the team that lost to Washington at home and then Toronto on the road 3 days later or the team that won @ Boston. I'd have to dive in deeper to uncover the answer. This team desperately needs to trade McGrady. Maybe they could swap him for Howard or something. Probably a lateral move on both teams part. Anyways back to the game...
With Artest and McGrady practicing with the team I think it'll provide just enough of a distraction to take away the positive momentum that the Rockets have built. Interesting road trip that they are embarking on. 3-0 or 0-3 are possible. I'll take another very competitive team at home catching points. Just like the Cats I'll hope the line moves for the road team and I'd love to have the Pacers at +2.5, but will take them even at -1.
Bucks/Hawks
Already played the
Hawks at -4. Faded the Bucks last time out and they burned me to the tune of 133 points. Last time they scored 125+ they followed it up with 92 points against the Clippers. Love the idea of the Bucks getting a bit happy with themselves as their defense has still been putrid as of late. Hawks have nothing to get excited about on the defensive end either w/out Horford/Williams, but two days of rest should do them well and no Bogut is also a plus. Certainly see the Hawks winning this one SU, but do worry about laying 4 points. Would advise caution at 5 and above.
Memphis/New York
Another play with the
Grizzlies at +6.5. Just waiting for the ML to play the rest. Iavoroni firing came as a bit of a surprise to me. I guess the ownership does care about winning. Would have preferred they waited a day as it might have awakened the Knicks to the fact that they weren't actually playing the Sixers yet. Still find this as a huge sandwich spot for the Knicks. You know they get up to play the Suns and they did pulling off the upset. Day off and then they host Memphis who completely sucks before traveling to Philly for a game on Saturday. Well they certainly have Philly marked as they just lost to them at home by 10 this week. Matter of fact it's the only loss the Knicks have had in their last 5 home games. Knicks have won 3 in a row once all year during the first week of the season and this is a classic head scratcher spot. It's also a two game chase play for me on the Grizz ML with the first bet being a half unit and this game also being a half unit ML play, but also a full unit on the spread.
NOLA/MINNY
This one could be interesting. Marvin Ely on Al Jefferson with no bench help? Could be fun to watch. Plenty of people lost on Jersey the other night playing against the Hornets injuries but the main problem was that the Nets have NOBODY inside to take advantage of those injuries. Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes can. The question is can Telfair do enough to slow down CP3. They'd be smart to let him score all he wants while limiting Peja open looks, but I'm not the coach. I do expect the Twolves, winners of 9/10 ATS, to pull out the SU victory here. They've won 4/5 SU at home only getting beat by Wade in a heartbreaker. I do worry that Paul could pull the same schenanigans but I'll take my chances that he's missing enough pieces around him.
Not completely sold, but it's Minny or nothing for me. If a ML was available right now I'd likely play it. Worried that it'll be a PK by the time I have a chance to hit it.
Toronto/Chicago
:whip: No thanks unless the Bulls are favored by more than 5 points. Neither team should be favored by more than a possession here.
Spurs/Nets
One of the last two home games for San Antonio before the ASG. They have games at LAL, UTA, and PHX before returning home to play the Hornets before heading back out to the road to finish off the first half of the season. Impossible for me to see them losing this game based on that alone. Of course if I could just pick them to win and not pay -280 then this shit would be easy, but no such luck. They are off of two days rest and have a nice day off, game, day off stretch coming up so they shouldn't be holding back much at all. Really expecting a strong 2nd half from the Spurs as much as anything. Off of 2 days rest the Spurs have been anything but spectacular and a Nets 1st quarter bet is probably warranted here.
Lean Nets 1st quarter and a 2nd half Spurs play.
Cavs/Warriors
Monta Ellis is going to play 20-30 mins tomorrow and that leaves me questioning a Warriors bet as it will probably take some time for the team to acclimate to him in the lineup. Maybe a 2nd half Warriors bet, but I don't really know. Need to read up and see how much he's been practicing with the team. Moderate interest in a 1st quarter over bet. Need to know Biedrins status as well for this one. Hard for me to think that the Cavs aren't at least peeking towards playing @Utah.
Lean 1st quarter over and the Warriors but more so on the 1st quarter play.
Thunder/Clippers
Thunder as road chalk? Not likely, but it's just as likely that I'd play the Clipper developmental team under any circumstances. Check out the Raptors/Bulls w/up for my thoughts on this one.
