1-1-2007

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Fresh start...

Over 189 -110 Charlotte {3units}Win +3.00

Over 189.5 -111 Portland {3units} Under 191 -105 {3units} Middled

Portland -7 -116 {5units} NO PLAY

With the Wolves suddenly they aren't playing defense and a 5th in 7nites cant help defensive intensity. Allowing NJ and Tor to crack 100 certainly makes me think a suddenly *HOT* Charlotte squad can do the same. They have lost Wallace ontop of Breven Knight but Sean May has returned. Hopefully Adam Morrison plays like he did last game...Charlotte has topped 99 in all but 2 road games @ dallas and @Chi in the past 10 games...they have allowed 102 + in 7 of 10....

The Bobcats are very much like Portland in that they dont win ATS they win SU.... I will probably try a 2 unit hedge play....Wolves -3.5 -106 vs Char ML +150...see how it plays out...
:drink:
 
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Working on Tuesday still undecided about the late game : Over 189.5 -111 {3u} and Port -7 116 {5u} played but did because I knew I could middle/wash...

My Experiment was 2 units each : Wolves -3.5 -105 vs Charlotte ML +156
 
Basically I decided that the line is somewhat high to back Portland so I will sit and watch the 1st Half look for some VALUE ....As for the total if Boston is to not cover the Portlands ceiling is 100 pts and make this total dicey IMO...say the score is 99-90??

1st Quarters{-1.05}
Under 48.5 -105 {unit}L -1.05
Boston +2 +109 {1/2unit} L -0.50 , +4 -108 1st H {1/2unit}Win +0.5
 
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imma torn as well wit this game...last game for celts...ofer so far, do they want to go home or do they compete

fyi...this trip, the biggest gotcha for celts is that they come out slow in 1st and 3rd Q's, get behind and play catch up

GL bro
 
Personally I think -5/-5.5 is fair here. I couldnt agree more that the QUESTION is last leg of the trip are they mentally home already or are they coming here with a chip on their shoulder. Telfair returns to Portland as well.

I went with those plays small as a short in the dark. Both teams tend to start slow offensively and then sort of get it going..20 up in Boston earlier this year...I admit taking Boston early is risky but thinking this might follow the pattern of the Charlotte game ..dog plays well early and fades..due to inability to step up and make a play..I tend to think the team who played last nite has the edge over the team who didnt play...BOL..we always have HALFTIME!
 
Though with the line dropping it seems the betting public has chosen Boston here...something to remember maybe at half..
 
i think the bigger question we should ask ourselves is

why they fuck do we care about this shit ass game with these shit ass teams....hahahaha


y...cause they r playin it and we are degens!!!

;)
 
I think worse is the need for me to be able to have the correct opinion on every game...I dont even watch 90% of the shit I take...follow online if I can but if I am watching TV its usually a movie not the game...odd I am! watching OU vs Boise though...
 
A tenth of a second. I had the 2 plus 10 cents for a small play myself:moose:
 
Gross but thats why I keep quarters small for the most part..mostly luck...Truth is the celts were a sucker bet and I knew thats why I went a half unit....game line is moving down and the 1st Q is moving up....thats a red flag...
 
nice half hit bro...looks like they want to compete

i took the game as well...lets see if they sustain it
 
I took Portland -4.5 2nd half....felt this line was better than the 7 for the game....FT's are the only reason why Boston is in this game
 
Tuesday Thoughts:

It amazes sometimes how stubborn the public can be in terms of perception. Clippers have now won 3 straight and continue to get treated like diseased animals while now matter how many games ORL lost someone was making a case for them. Point is -4.5 seems to be to much. The Clips stink on the road but all Orlando has done after a bunch of crap games is hang with Washington and beat a THIN Miami team...I thought -3 was fair here...the 184.5 total seems way to low...think 9 of 12 away have seen the iopposition break 100...also check Orl vs the West at home LAL , GS , PHO , DEN , only SEA was low scoring....se no reason why this game isnt played in the 90's and not the 80's like the line seems to suggest..Turkoglu is so important to the offense and his recent return has seen more points on the board for ORL if they could only hit FT's!!

With SA @ Cle I hate the revenge angle cause Spurs have already paid back 2 defeats this year but 3.5 in Cle....that line is way high....at best SA is -1....the total is real low as well if you look at home / away for both..1st meeting FT's were something like 36 of 64.....so cavs and the over look real attractive...

Warriors @ Hornets..we know Jason Richardson is out for awhile so Ellis status is important here.....how is a 3-11 team favored on the road...perception....The Hornets have struggled shorthanded vs the elite but have played well against medicore teams athome...Really like the home dog in a home dominated series....

Philly @ Denver..If Webber plays love the Sxers w/o him still like them...Denver should be huge favs over many people right now and if they are only -6 vs Boston they shouldnt be more versus a better Philly squad especially with Green back now.....

Not sure if I can back my Knicks yet but any total below 190 looks attractive for an over..NY cant defend but they havent scored much away either...

Pho@ Chicago....can the SUns get any luckier...Billups out now Hinrich hurting....I really like Chi here as Pho really has rasheed to thank for last loss...an over as well....
 
Well I can say the 2nd Half over is probably toast..every game the most important part for any over is the beginning of the fourth quarter....once I sse 5 points in 3 minutes ....the over is done without OT or a miracle.....which is basically one in the same.....

Something to look for if you have a total its like 98% decided in the first few minutes of the 4th quarter......
 
Austintx_05 said:
I took Portland -4.5 2nd half....felt this line was better than the 7 for the game....FT's are the only reason why Boston is in this game
Click to expand...

what does that mean exactly... FT's are the only reason...Just a question trying to understand the logic / point?
 
Austin????? huh....the ft's diff is only +4 ...don't see a dramatic diff...

celts came to play and port couldn't match...that simple

nice late hit sporto:smiley_acbe:

:cheers:
 
Yeah I get pissed at myself though all I did was really end up flat and I really had the game pegged as Boston and Under after really digging into it but unfortunaetly my decision to grab the over and port early clouded my judgement....

I am not knocking Austin by any means I just didnt really understnd the point...did he mean their FT percentage? just curious
 
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