'09 Preview & Predictions

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
I do this every year, as part of my preparations...yet also simply to test &/or challenge myself. But there's actually a lot that goes into it all...in that it's not just throwing out numbers and shit, and seeing what sticks.
Anyways, i post this before every mlb season, but i'll repeat a couple things. There are obviously 4860 total reg season games...2268 in the AL, and 2592 in the NL...though a portion of those #'s are interleague. The only blanket assumption i make in my calculations is that the AL will win the same percentage of IL games over the NL as the previous year. For example, in '08, the AL went 1157-1111...and the NL went 1273-1319...so the AL was a +46. That said...even though the AL always has a winning record against the NL...it wouldn't surprise me to see that # drop 8 to 10 games this season (like to a +36 or +38) as the NL has been improving overall. But like i said...this is the one assumption i make going into all of this, for simplicity's sake...so take it fwiw, in that regard.
Anyhow, i'll get to my team win predictions now...listing them below...then i'll be available to discuss/debate any (or all) of them as we approach opening day. The asteriks note who i'm predicting to make the playoffs...the records are my '09 predictions...and the # in paratheses is the +/- from the team's '08 record. (And remember...to give someone more wins, you also have to give someone else more losses...if you'd like to debate/change my #s below.)


*NYY = 94-68 (+5)
*TB = 90-72 (-7)
BOS = 88-74 (-7)
TOR = 82-80 (-4)
BAL = 75-87 (+7)

*CLE = 87-75 (+6)
MIN = 84-78 (-4)
CWS = 81-81 (-8)
DET = 79-85 (+5)
KC = 77-85 (+2)

*LAA = 89-73 (-11)
OAK = 81-81 (+6)
SEA = 76-86 (+15)
TX = 74-88 (-5)

*NYM = 91-71 (+2)
*PHI = 89-73 (-3)
ATL = 81-81 (+9)
FLA = 78-84 (-6)
WAS = 62-100 (+3)

*CHI = 91-71 (-6)
STL = 85-77 (-1)
CIN = 83-79 (+9)
HOU = 78-84 (-8)
MIL = 77-85 (-13)
PIT = 71-91 (+4)

*LAD = 88-74 (+4)
AZ = 84-78 (+2)
SF = 81-81 (+9)
COL = 70-92 (-4)
SD = 64-98 (+1)


Now, i do not wager on season win totals...for no other reason than ROI. It just doesn't make sense to tie up any of your money for 6 months, without getting some killer odds/value in return. And season win totals do not give that...so imho, you're better off getting the same odds in a particular game...since you don't even get interest for handing over your money for that 6 month timeframe.
That said...if i did make these types of wagers, i'd be looking at the following 9 teams...based upon my predictions, and comparing them to the o/u's being offered. And i say 9 teams, because my #'s have 9 teams that have greater than a 3 game differential from the what's currently listed.

I'd take a good look at the boston under, the detroit under, and the seattle over in the AL...as well as the washington under, the houston over, the milwaukee under, the la dodger over, the colorado under, and the san diego under in the NL. Imo only, those are the 9 teams that have the greatest variance from the current o/u numbers...though the variance in most isn't really all that high, especially when you consider the odds/value of such a wager.

Anyhow, that's the start of the thread. I'll try my best to get into how i came up with these #s...the reasonings behind them, etc...as time allows. But feel free to debate/discuss whatever you don't agree with...or even whatever you do agree with above. Again, the bottom line is that it's only my 2 cents...nothing more...based upon my preparations for capping the mlb season. It's certainly not gospel, and many unforeseen things will change over the course of the next 6 months. But it's just my (fairly scientific, yet still judgemental) attempt at categorizig the upcoming season...and all 30 teams...which i'll try to break down further, team by team, over the coming week(s).

:tiphat:
 
great read yanks-

gonna get back to this one at a later time when im in the zone and focused.

gotta put the thinking cap on:smiley_acbe:
 
Good stuff Yanks. Although I am not to happy with the Brewers projection lol. But I do see where you get it from, especially with the pitching staff they have put together
 
might be firesales with detroit and cleveland if they don't get off to hot starts due to economy. that would benefit chisox and sota in the central while other big names take their talent (olney just reported this).
 
signalcaller said:
Good stuff Yanks. Although I am not to happy with the Brewers projection lol. But I do see where you get it from, especially with the pitching staff they have put together
Click to expand...

it's pretty obvious they're going to regress. pretty much the same lineup...but the starting pitching's not nearly as good...and the pen is a mess, whether hoffman's there or not. it's a shame after last year...but last year was somewhat of an overachievement.


CapTwo said:
great read yanks-

gonna get back to this one at a later time when im in the zone and focused.

gotta put the thinking cap on:smiley_acbe:
Click to expand...

:cheers:
 
Although, no matter what happens, think division will be pretty tight as you have projected.
 
brewer said:
might be firesales with detroit and cleveland if they don't get off to hot starts due to economy. that would benefit chisox and sota in the central while other big names take their talent (olney just reported this).
Click to expand...

could be.
i like detroit, but they're a mess. they went all-in last year, trading away all their young talent (except porcello)...and it didnt' work out.
decent sticks in that lineup...but it's not solid top to bottom by any stretch. guillen's dropped off, etc.
the starters aren't that good...and if you take away verlander, who wasn't great last year, they're well below average. and it's a fucking coin flip between the tigers and mariners as to who's got the most pathetic pen in the AL this season. right now it's the M's, barely...but if Josh Fields (from UGA) see the bigs this season, then it'll be the tigers hands down.

the only way i see the tribe selling is if they get off to a really poor start. hell, they'd sell hafner in a heatbeat...but no one's buying. solid lineup, with a couple injured sticks from last year returning...plus a nice addition, maybe two (if laporta takes over for hafner). the startng pitching is below average...but the pen will be much, much improved...and not jsut because of Wood. there are a few very good arms in that pen that way under-performed last year...where they won't be regularly coughing up the 4 run leads like Rodney & Lyons will be doing in Detroit.

Minny could sneak up there...as they always seem to end up in the mix, with less talent. But i honestly dont' see the chisox repeating. There's been basically an automatic regression every year in the Central, where the division champ really falls off the following year. Don't see the chisox doing that quite to the extent they did in '06, Detroit did the following year, or the Tribe did last year...but they will regress, imo.
but give them a year or two...and they won't seem so old and tired, overall. the future is bright...especially when you'll have Viciedo at 3b, Alexis at SS, and Gordon Beckham at 2b in the near future. Improve the starting pitching with young talent like that, and the chisox will be a team to reckon with for some time.
 
B.A.R. said:
Very dissapointed with the AL Central
Click to expand...


sorry :consoling1:

see my response to brewer. it's that pitching...especially the bullpen they assembled. zumaya's always hurt, and is never reliable for innings. yet when he's there, his whip &/or walks is almost as bad as rodney's...which is horrid. and lyon is a joke...makes todd look like a stellar closer.
jsut see them saving one game...then coughing up leads in the next two...providing their starters even give them leads to work with that often.
 
might be firesales with detroit and cleveland if they don't get off to hot starts due to economy. that would benefit chisox and sota in the central while other big names take their talent (olney just reported this).
Click to expand...
Didn't read Yanks response yet but this was a story SC created a month ago....

Don't be serious thinkig that a team like Detroit is gonna auction off a Miggy or something.....that report was to get people thinking....The Tigers have plenty of cash...they wanta get rid of high prices like Inge, dontrelle, robertson etc..go ahead...their owner is fine with cash...he never spent money on Tigs till Juan and then pudge...spent it all on red wings...just remember every 5 dollar pie you eat is in his pocket...they won't be selling off...only issue they have is a lame duck manager.
 
Yanks26Sox7 said:
sorry :consoling1:

see my response to brewer. it's that pitching...especially the bullpen they assembled. zumaya's always hurt, and is never reliable to innings. yet when he's there, his whip &/or walks is almost as bad as rodney's is...which is horrid. and lyon is a joke...makes todd look like a stellar closer.
jsut see them saving one game...then coughing up leads in the next two.
Click to expand...



I know man...I was just looking at Lyons the other day and very dissapointing...


Weird stat last year...52-51 with pudge then shit the cellar.
 
B.A.R. said:
Didn't read Yanks response yet but this was a story SC created a month ago....

Don't be serious thinkig that a team like Detroit is gonna auction off a Miggy or something.....that report was to get people thinking....The Tigers have plenty of cash...they wanta get rid of high prices like Inge, dontrelle, robertson etc..go ahead...their owner is fine with cash...he never spent money on Tigs till Juan and then pudge...spent it all on red wings...just remember every 5 dollar pie you eat is in his pocket...they won't be selling off...only issue they have is a lame duck manager.
Click to expand...


exactly. miggy wouldn't be for sale. it's the "toxic" assets like inge, dontrelle, etc that are virtually impossible to offload...just like hafner in cleveland.
 
In related news...Dontrelle had a nice outing other day....weird...

Shall see...pitching will do them in, no doubt...Central will be a battle this year for sure...
 
B.A.R. said:
Didn't read Yanks response yet but this was a story SC created a month ago....

Don't be serious thinkig that a team like Detroit is gonna auction off a Miggy or something.....that report was to get people thinking....The Tigers have plenty of cash...they wanta get rid of high prices like Inge, dontrelle, robertson etc..go ahead...their owner is fine with cash...he never spent money on Tigs till Juan and then pudge...spent it all on red wings...just remember every 5 dollar pie you eat is in his pocket...they won't be selling off...only issue they have is a lame duck manager.
Click to expand...

but you're not gonna be selling as many $5 pies when your attendence is going to be down 40% this year compared to last.
 
brewer said:
but you're not gonna be selling as many $5 pies when your attendence is going to be down 40% this year compared to last.
Click to expand...


Of course it will be down..they sold shitout before opening day last year...prices still going solid though at CoPa....

Illitch has saved payroll for years here man...once NHL cap hit...he could divulge in Tigers...he wants success...man is 80ish now..he's ready..he has his Red Wings Cups...Tiger time....he saw his advisary die two weeks ago(big rivals btw)...he knows next 4-5 years he gotta make it happen.

Bottom line, Miggy ain't going nowhere...we'll keeop best AL player(offensively) here for long time coming.
 
who hits more hrs in 09. quentin or mags?

08 numbers

quentin
.394 obb, .571 slug, .288 avg, 36 hr, 100 rbi

mags
.376 obb, .494 slug, .317 avg, 21 hr, 103 rbi
 
couple things. first off all i hate when people say there will be a fire sale in detroit. like BAR said there is no way the tigers get rid of any pieces that are worth anything at all. inge/robertson/willis is what we are talking and getting rid of those guys won't affect the club at all, especially if they start off poorly which means these guys are under achieving and thats why the poor start. there will be no "firesale" in detroit and fuck sportscenter for making everyone think there will be based on one wacky story. this is one of the most annoying rumors in awhile.

second: i know its spring training but Verlanders K/walk ratio is downright gross. 11k's /14 walks. I hope he's been working on a certain delivery point or something and this will change once the season starts but its a great area for concern. if verlander can't be good neither will the tigers.

Overall I unfortunately agree with your assessment of the tigers record this year. The pitching just isn't good enough and the bottom third of the order = yikes. I think they have the potential to win the central a la 2006 but I'm certainly not banking on multiple players getting hot and avoiding injury.
 
Pirates will not finish in last place this year...:angry: We will win 80...Maholm looks primed for 17 wins ... So subtract a few from Houston, Reds and the Cards and i will be happy.

Tabata was a stud during ST and so was Alvarez...1 prospect McCutchon may make the team, man if we only drafted Wieters when we had the chance..

Good to see ya back ,Yanks
 
Last edited:
Another stroll down memory lane for me . Something we once spent alot of time chatting about ..

For some reason this is the most enthuastic MLB season inawhile for me . Granted the Yanks new FA signings could have alot to do with it ..lol..

AL East -

Think both NYY and Boston win more games with the Yankees possibly alot more then 94 . ARod who ?? Think both Tor and Balt should see less wins as well . The Orioles pitching staff is really going to be an issue when you look at them facing Boston , NYY and TB , oh and that Doc Halladay guy is going to be tough still in Toronto. Blue Jays backend of the rotation should create a ton of overs .

AL Central -

Think CLE is about right in that 86-88 range , thinking Twins might really fall off the map this year because of my dislike of their pitching especially in the bullpen , White Sox have a ton of upside IMO , if Det can find stability in the pen really think they will improve alot to the mid 80s worst case , KC is still KC to me think I agree though

AL West -
Right off the bat I think LAA is setting up to fall off a cliff with this Spring Training run . The pitching staff has alot of question marks like many and dont think they find many answers , Oak same deal as well , love the improvement overall but SP going to be real interesting and think at best they are 500 right now JD out , Texas is intruiging but again at best a 500 club unless some SP develop , the Mariners really could bea darkhorse because King Felix and Bedard alone could be Cy YOung material and they have a solid vet cast with some youth sprinkled in ...they not Oak are the team to watch for IMO.....

get to the NL at some point ...GL bro ..




 
FYI

Tigers first week season ticket sales this year were highest in COPA history.

and also John is a homer ;)
 
enjoyed reading the recent thoughts from you guys. gots to get to bed...but next time i'm online, i'll get into bases some more.

5 more days :shake:
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

G-Man
* G-Man's Baseball Playoffs. Posted here*.
Replies
2
Views
81
wiseplayer
wiseplayer
B
March/April plays
Replies
37
Views
1K
Smallmouth_bass
S
G-Man
***G-Man's MLB Total Eclipse Day***
Replies
8
Views
278
TheDodgers
T
2daBank
Sunday discussion thread
Replies
23
Views
127
2daBank
2daBank
L
AL/NL Pennant & World Series Champion Updated Tracking
Replies
1
Views
69
Loves2kickass
L
Back
Top