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Xfinity 500 Picks Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Junior Moderator
Xfinity 500 Betting Preview

Xfinity 500 Betting Odds Analysis

What stands out to me the most is the fact that Martin Truex Jr. is favored to win this race.

Kyle Larson has basically had the fastest car all year, so it’s weird to see him not be the most heavily favored driver at a race that doesn’t take place at a road course.



Xfinity 500 Picks

Pick 1 Kyle Larson (+500)
Pick 2 Brad Keselowski (+900)



Xfinity 500 Predictions

Kyle Larson (+500)


Martin Truex Jr. is favored most heavily to win this race because of his superior driver history at this track. Let’s just acknowledge this fact in order to understand why the odds are what they are.

But let’s also acknowledge that, this year, we have repeatedly seen Larson perform massively better at other tracks than his history there suggested he would.

For example, Kansas Speedway was not one of his top 10 tracks in terms of average finishing position. Strictly given his history at that track, one had to expect a mediocre performance from him.

However, he won the last race that took place at Kansas Speedway.

Given examples like this – of Larson dominating a track that he was historically unspectacular at – we should not care that Truex Jr., or any other driver for that matter, has a stronger history at Martinsville than Larson.

Recent history is repeatedly the thing that matters. Larson is – and has been this entire year – the fastest driver. He has won three races in a row.

Skeptics may suggest that we shouldn’t invest in Larson because he already secured his spot in the Championship 4.

However, he had already secured his spot when he won the first race in the Round of 8. Last Sunday, he also won the second race in the Round of 8.

Larson is evidently interested in maintaining his superior racing form.

He is simply too good right now to pass up on as an underdog. Therefore, he is my first pick to win.



Brad Keselowski (+900)

With so many drivers enjoying a literal chance to win, I always like investing in a bit of a long-shot.

It would probably be inaccurate to cast Keselowski as a long-shot. But semantics aside, there are seven drivers who are favored more heavily than he is to win.

I find that Keselowski is being underrated by oddsmakers.

He may seem less attractive for two reasons: one, he finished 33rd in his last race at Martinsville. Two, his last race – on October 24 – saw a poor result from him.

These are not good reasons to dislike Keselowski. He finished 33rd at Martinsville because he suffered an accident. This was a fluke event. Before this 33rd-place catastrophe, he had finished fifth, first, third, third, and fourth in consecutive races at Martinsville.

Moreover, his 17th-place finish last week was similarly anomalous. Crucially, he repeatedly bounces back from poor finishes. For example, he finished 20th at Charlotte RC and then fourth the next week at Texas.

Keselowski is eminently likable this week because he is in a historically supported bounce-back spot. Plus, he is at a track where he consistently enjoys success and where he knows how to win.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
GL this week. Actually decent price on Larson. All he does is win. I'm tired of trying to beat him.

Only play for me today.

Harvick +105 over Bell -125. Not sure why Bell is favored here.
 

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