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World Series Discussion Thread: Braves vs. Astros

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
^^^40 of 46 teams winning from 3-1 up doesn't make pleasant reading for any Stros fans, but of course there's more than a little padding in dem dere stats.

The best-of-7 + 2-3-2 format was only introduced formerly in 1924, so 12 out of 12 successful WS wins from 3-1 up automatically get erased since they came in formats that don't replicate the one that these two teams are subject to here. That means 40 from 46 (86.9 win %) becomes 28 of 34 (82.3 win %). Still a strong win % but not s much. But wait, there's more. Of those 28 successes, 18 were over by game 5. Since Houston has forced a game 6, none of those 4-1 WS scorelines indicate much of anything re our current circumstances: only those WS which made it to game 6 from one team being 3-1 up do: that now moves us to the situation where 10 of 16 teams have won the WS from 3-1 up when a game 6 was required using the best of 7/2-3-2 format: suddenly that initial win rate drops almost a full 25 points to 62.5%.

Of those 16 WS needing a game 6 from one team being 3-1 up, exactly half (8) ended in game 6 and the other half needed a game 7. The teams that were up 3-1 have only managed a 2-6 record in game 7's. Teams in Atlanta's spot have overwhelmingly clinched the WS in this situation by ending matters with a game 6 win.

Teams with HFA have gone 9-7 in game 6's and 2-6 in game 7's - that's of course ignoring whether the team with HFA was down or up 3-1.

These last 2 groups of stats contain an obvious tension: teams who were up 3-1 have shit the bed if a game 7 has been required (going only 2-6) but road teams have gone 6-2 in game 7's irrespective of whether they were the team up or down 3-1. Both categories here - up 3-1/road teams - apply to Atlanta (I know game 7 isn't a given at this point, but I'm just covering all the bases - so to speak - ahead of time here). Of the 6 teams to lose the WS from 3-1 up, only 2 did so in a road game 7.
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One was the 1925 Washington Senators. Now there are some purely statistical but nevertheless seriously eerie similarities between that Senators team and this current Braves team re their respective WS efforts:

- both conceded exactly as many runs through games 2-3-4 combined as they did in game 5 (Washington 6, Atlanta 9)
- both managed a shut out win @home in going up 3-1 (Washington in game 4, Atlanta in game 3)
- both had their worst pitching outing to date after 5 games in game 5 (Washington conceded 6 runs, by exactly 2 runs the highest total they'd conceded til that point in the WS; Atlanta conceding 9 runs, by exactly 2 runs the highest total they'd conceded til that point in the WS)
- both managed a WLWWL sequence headed into game 6
- both teams lost a game after going up 4-0 after the 1st (Washington in game 7, Atlanta in game 5)

However, there is one crucial difference between the two: Washington got no day off between game 5 & 6 (thus were playing for the 4th straight day when it came to game 6), instead getting a rest day between game 6 & 7.
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The other team to lose game 7 on the road after being 3-1 up was the 1985 Saint Louis Cardinals. In this instance there 's basically no statistical correspondence between the two teams:

- both managed a shut out win @home in going up 3-1 (Saint Louis game 4, Atlanta game 3)
- both led by multiple runs after the 1st in game 5 (STL 3-0, ATL 4-0) and both ended up losing by multiple runs (STL lost by 2, ATL lost by 4)

That's it. Saint Louis's results streak was WWLWLLL, so essentially they got butt-f**ked after their fast start to the WS: from 2-0 down Kansas won every game they managed to score a run in (their only loss through the last 5 games being that shut out in game 4). Looking at how that 1985 series went, the Royals' offense started cold (managing only 3 combined runs through the first two games) but then managed two 6-run totals in game's 3 & 5 and ended with an 11-run blitz in game 7, while the Cardinals offense went the exact opposite way, managing only 2 combined runs over the final 3 games.
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And it's here that the key factor seems to exist regarding why the teams who lost from 3-1 up did so:
Here are those 6 losing teams regulation innings run totals over their final two games
2016 : 3 & 6 (managed 3 in the 8th)
1985 : 0 & 1
1979 : 0 & 1
1968 : 1 & 1
1958 : 2 & 2
1925 : 2 & 7 (managed 4 runs in the 1st, then only 3 over the next 8 innings)

Outside of two specific crooked-numbered innings, the offense on display here is almost non existent. Essentially the scoring for these teams (for whatever reason) dried up, and their opponents made hay as a result. As seen from the list above, none of the teams failing from 3-1 up managed anything worth writing home about on offense in their respective game 6's. Now, the game 6 totals from the teams who did go on to win the WS from 3-1 up?

7, 1(-0 win), 8, 4, 8, 1(loss), 4(loss), 4, 13, 4

The nearly foolproof divide is clear:

3 runs or less in game 6 for eventual WS losers, 4 runs or more in game 6 for eventual WS winners.

In short, what the Braves offense manages in game 6 will go a long way towards telling us what we might be able to expect from them in game 7 if it's required.


Notes about these specific series:

2016
Cleveland was down 7-0 after the top of the 3rd in game 6 and was down 5-1 after the top of the 5th in game 7 (after conceding only 5 total runs over the 3 previous games). Even though they managed to tie game 7 late and forced extras, essentially their pitching not hitting is where they came unstuck (unlike basically any of the other teams who managed this feat).

1985
Saint Louis led 1-0 headed into the bottom of the 9th in game 6 (and promptly conceded 2) so much like the Texas Rangers 2011 team they obviously never recovered from blowing a WS-winning result when they returned the next day for game 7 (which they promptly lost 11-0).

1979
Baltimore led 1-0 after 5the 5th in game 7 (after having been tied 0-0 after the 5th in game 6) but their late-game efforts on both fronts let them down both times, their pitching conceding 4 runs from the 6th onwards in both games while the offense in each instance managed... exactly... nothing. An offense that put up 2 runs full stop over the final 3 games is one that managed to score 5 runs in game 1, 8 runs in game 3, and 9 runs in game 4. Somewhat like the Red Sox offense in the recent ALCS, their bats just fell off the face of the earth.

1968
Saint Louis was down 12-0 after the 3rd in game 6, so they obv. mentally trashed that game from said point and saved themselves for game 7. That game was 0-0 after 6 and in that situation your 1st scoring team will usually be your eventual winner. Detroit was 2 out with none on in the top of 7, but then with a string of singles + one decent hit broke the game open and broke the Cardinals resolve.

1958
Game 6 needed extra innings tied 2-2 after the 9th (Milwaukee had led 2-1 after the 5th) and game 7 was tied 2-2 after the end of the 7th, but the Yankee bastards busted it open the top of the 8th to clinch. Cold bats can definitely be pointed to here for the failure from 3-1 up.

1925
Washington led 2-0 after 2 in game 6 (eventually losing 3-2), and 4-0 after 1 in game 7 (& 7-6 headed into the bottom of the 8th, but eventually losing 9-7). Washington pretty much just keep blowing it. Since the Black Sox scandal was only a few years before, it's something that might make you go hmmmm.

In all 6 instances, the team who ultimately lost from 3-1 up put in at least one gigantic effort over their final two games that took them excruciatingly close to laying their hands on the WS trophy. There's simply no instances in WS history of the team that was 3-1 (then 3-2) down cruising to victory in both the final 2 games.
 
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ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
I’m not gonna lie. I’m nervous we are going back to Houston.

If last night woke up those bats…..

Very Nervous
 

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
It’s Hard to understand why a pitcher knit picks with a hitter who hit below .200 in the regular season.
 

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