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World Series Discussion Thread: Braves vs. Astros

gps_3

Well-Known Member
What’s up fellas? Not much a baseball bettor, but as a diehard, lifelong Braves fan, I took them 10-1 preseason to win WS. What is the proper hedging strategy in y’all’s opinion? I have Astros -140 for series, or should I take them game by game until I guarantee profit? I’ll gladly push forward a Braves sweep
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
What’s up fellas? Not much a baseball bettor, but as a diehard, lifelong Braves fan, I took them 10-1 preseason to win WS. What is the proper hedging strategy in y’all’s opinion? I have Astros -140 for series, or should I take them game by game until I guarantee profit? I’ll gladly push forward a Braves sweep
Not sure I'd hedge until an elimination game really
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
What’s up fellas? Not much a baseball bettor, but as a diehard, lifelong Braves fan, I took them 10-1 preseason to win WS. What is the proper hedging strategy in y’all’s opinion? I have Astros -140 for series, or should I take them game by game until I guarantee profit? I’ll gladly push forward a Braves sweep
Yeah got 12-1 too not sure what I'm gonna do yet.

I expected a MUCH higher series price tbh.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
What’s up fellas? Not much a baseball bettor, but as a diehard, lifelong Braves fan, I took them 10-1 preseason to win WS. What is the proper hedging strategy in y’all’s opinion? I have Astros -140 for series, or should I take them game by game until I guarantee profit? I’ll gladly push forward a Braves sweep
I'm on the other side with an 18-1 `Stros future contemplating similar things.

I'm not sure there is a proper hedging strategy other than what is comfortable for you?
What type impact would the loss be on you and your bankroll?
How do you feel about the remaining series and the current market?

I've been in dramatically different places for futures over the years. In a couple scenarios the large odds combined with healthy outlay (vs my normal outlay) created a potential windfall that would be extremely impactful and I reluctantly did the prudent thing and ensured healthy profit regardless.

There has been a couple other times I where even with a good sized risk and healthy payout I was committed all the way to the end for better or worse (`Stros 2019 was the bad side of the coin for this approach while UVA hoops 2019 the stubbornness paid off).

You have all sorts of options honestly. If you just want to protect your original investment and have a risk free WS to enjoy with a potential nice payday simply lay the 1.45 units to win your future bet back.

Options:

Protect the investment and let it ride
Risk 1.45 to win 1
`Stros win = Push
Braves win = +8.55

Lock up the profits option the best way possible (pre series at least)
Risk 6.45 to win 4.45
`Stros win = +3.45
Braves win = +3.55

Obviously you can wait and see and/or wait for an elimination game or you can snap off a `Stros bet on game 1 for 1.35 to get your investment back and if the `Stros go up 1-0 maybe you just ride it out risk free. If it loses it gets a bit tricky game by game to lock in profits but obviously can be done.

My scenario this year I've got a full current unit to win 18 which while not a game changer obviously still would be quite nice and gives room to play around with things if I want to protect some of it. However, I'm still not sure as I really like the `Stros against Charlie Fucking Morton (who i love but just not against this fastball hitting lineup) and if I didn't have the future I'd likely have a G1 bet on the ML and -1.5. Given that I might let it play out at a minimum through game 1 and likely if the `Stros do W in G1 I'll let it ride without hedging through G2. If it heads back to Atlanta at 1-1 I would probably hedge a chunk off still close to even $$. Being on the favorite side of things obviously makes it a bit easier but that's kind of my game by game approach (given I do like the `Stros still especially in G1 and also for the series).

Sorry for ramblings @gps_3 but I needed to kind of talk myself through as well so disregard if it's irrelevant to you and health on your future and your team either way
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Braves really didn't get much out of Morton, Fried, and Anderson (though he was good for the 4 innings Saturday) and beat the Dodgers. Those guys need to do better vs Houston. Can't keep relying on Matzek and Minter to bail them out.

Really no good rh option out of the pen for them now. Luke Jackson looked shell-shocked after Bellinger hr in game 3 and totally shit himself Saturday in the 7th.

I'm guessing Soler DHs and is in the middle of the order with Rosario stoll hitting leadoff.

Haven't watched a ton of Astros games this year.

What do you guys think?
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
HOUSTON (KXAN) — Houston’s Jim McIngvale — more fondly-known as “Mattress Mack” — stands to win a large chunk of change if the Astros finish out this season with their second World Series title in five years.

If Houston defeats the Atlanta Braves for the world championship, McIngvale will cash in on nearly $39 million after he made a series of bets over the summer on the Astros to win it all.

McIngvale shared a breakdown of the bets on Twitter Monday morning. “Mattress Mack” McIngvale wagered $2 million to win $22 million (10-to-1 odds) with Ceasar’s Sportsbook and $1 million to win $11 million with FanDuel.

This is all part of Mattress Mack’s strategy to hedge against his “Astros Win It All” promotion offered at his Gallery Furniture stores. McIngvale allows customers who spend more than $3,000 on a Tempur-Pedic, Sealy or Stearns & Foster sleep set at Gallery Furniture to get their money back if the Astros win it all.

This isn’t Mattress Mack’s first foray into sports betting or an Astros championship promotion. McIngvale had the same offer for his customers when the Astros reached the World Series in 2017 and 2019.

Houston won it all in 2017 against the Los Angeles Dodgers and lost to the Washington Nationals in 2019.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
HOUSTON (KXAN) — Houston’s Jim McIngvale — more fondly-known as “Mattress Mack” — stands to win a large chunk of change if the Astros finish out this season with their second World Series title in five years.

If Houston defeats the Atlanta Braves for the world championship, McIngvale will cash in on nearly $39 million after he made a series of bets over the summer on the Astros to win it all.

McIngvale shared a breakdown of the bets on Twitter Monday morning. “Mattress Mack” McIngvale wagered $2 million to win $22 million (10-to-1 odds) with Ceasar’s Sportsbook and $1 million to win $11 million with FanDuel.

This is all part of Mattress Mack’s strategy to hedge against his “Astros Win It All” promotion offered at his Gallery Furniture stores. McIngvale allows customers who spend more than $3,000 on a Tempur-Pedic, Sealy or Stearns & Foster sleep set at Gallery Furniture to get their money back if the Astros win it all.

This isn’t Mattress Mack’s first foray into sports betting or an Astros championship promotion. McIngvale had the same offer for his customers when the Astros reached the World Series in 2017 and 2019.

Houston won it all in 2017 against the Los Angeles Dodgers and lost to the Washington Nationals in 2019.
Oh great, Rovelle gonna be hanging with this dude all week.
 

emg2525

Well-Known Member
Astros with the advantage Hitting. Braves with the advantage pitching. Which one will be the bigger advantage? I think hitting.

Thinking back to all the fireworks in the Red Sox series, Im guessing similarly we see fireworks throughout this series, and I don’t think the Braves quite have the bats to keep up.

Should be a good one.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
Always hard for me to go against the home team in game 1 of a series. 8-0 this postseason (that includes both wild card games)

If you add in the 1st home game for every team in every series (wc included) that number is 15-1 this post-season.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Any ump stuff would be awesome

I do have wager available of Freddie to get a hit/ATL ML +240 I might nibble on
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
The order was correct earlier, Conroy seems very neutral for me. Also remember the mystery 7th ump will be behind the plate tomorrow night and the 1B ump tonight will be for game 3 assuming they do it like the other playoff series. Of note for me, Bellino and Mooch both have larger strike zones, Marquez is the only smaller zone typically and he'd be game 7. Maybe an over guy for game 2?

 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
I played Asstros series, purely out of respect for Dusty and hopes that he can win a WS. That said, I really don't like Houston overall. Just a little action to keep it interesting.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
It could get real nteresting for the Braves later in the series with basically 2 bullpen games in games 4 and 5.

People say it's a must win for Houston tonight, but I think it's a must win for the Braves, now that Morton is out. They need to win both of the Fried starts and one of Andersons.

Certainly investing in the Astros now isn't the worst idea in the world.
 

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Nine? How is this a nine rather than an eight? Joe wants to bet the over. Who can I blame for this? Please say Steed.
 

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
One of the best under guys in the biz tonight


I hate this. And now I definitely blame Steed. He's been deciding umpire crews for close to a decade and Angel Hernandez is still calling games so I rest my case.

This is bullshit. This should be another over series like the ones the Astros have played all the way to get here, and yet The Man is out here trying to keep a Joe down. I would call it unbelievable, but the truth is, this is exactly what I'd expect. They're all out to get me, don't cha know.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Outside of Eddings I think Kulpa has the biggest strike zone out there. Got three all star under umps in this series and he's definitely the captain.
 

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
Outside of Eddings I think Kulpa has the biggest strike zone out there. Got three all star under umps in this series and he's definitely the captain.

KJ out here telling my over finger to head to the showers because it won't be needed today and I hate everything about it. I promise you, if that finger could throw a tub of gatorade right now to express its rage, it would. But it can't. So it's going to like poke at the tub of gatorade, which is sort of sad, and frustrating for all involved.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
KJ out here telling my over finger to head to the showers because it won't be needed today and I hate everything about it. I promise you, if that finger could throw a tub of gatorade right now to express its rage, it would. But it can't. So it's going to like poke at the tub of gatorade, which is sort of sad, and frustrating for all involved.
Naw man, just don't get fired up when you see some "extraordinary" strike calls. Just looked and he called 64.75% strikes this season, haven't looked at the other big time under guys but that might be the highest out there. Mid 63% is about average...guys in the 64s are a bit special but closer to 65 is a big number
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Can work the other way and see some very aggressive at bats if they know his tendencies
 

Joe Public

Gabibbo's Finest
No, it's fine. I don't 'have' to bet. I can walk away at any time. I CAN. Why are you looking at me like that and laughing.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
I'm pulling for ye, no dog in this fight tonight. Too many moving parts for me, just sitting back and enjoying for a change.
 

Ryno14

Well-Known Member
I know it’s 1-1, but feels like such an uphill battle for the Braves..think G3 is a must win for them. Wouldn’t be surprised if they end up having to go Kyle Wright to start either 4 or 5
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
I'm seeing `Stros in the -130/140 range and Braves +120/125 or so in updated series prices. Basically back to the orig prices pre-game 1

I haven't fully decided yet if I'm going to lock in any of the 18-1 future. With CFM out now for the Braves I'm leaning towards letting it ride another game and check back in after game 3.
 

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