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Week #4

Yep! 60 HR in 147 games! 7 less games than The Babe!!! 95 years after that 1927 season of lore, of Murderer's Row. Hunt was right about the history of the game. We all know the numbers, the players, and love it all. Means so much, even though it was way before our time...because that's what we grew up with, the stories/the history. Baseball goes hand in hand with our country. Always has, always will.

Next up is 61!!! He'll do it in way fewer games than Maris' 162, and that will be the true, non PED/steroid, HR record. 61 HRs exactly 61 years after 1961. All while leading the league in every major offensive category, including being on pace for the triple crown!!! He's first in average now too after tonight.

Had baseball practice tonight. Got home in the 8th. Was on the phone with my son, catching up, and bitching about the gawd awful NYY pitching. Then comes Judge in the 9th. I screamed GTFO from my garage, where the entire neighborhood could surely hear it, then just watched while listening to my 20 yr old son freak out on the phone. Had tears coming down my face, and wasn't crying. Just tears...and amazement at what i've been watching.

I know we were all duped, many times...so I pray that this is truly, finally legit. If so, it is hands down THE single greatest season by a player in the histpry of the game. This isn't the live ball from a couple years ago, where dbags like Gleyber could hit 30+. The next closest dude hit his 40th tonight. 20 less, and that guy can barely hit over the mendoza line. And Judge is doing it all with class. No bat flips, no pimping, no showing anyone up...just 100% class. It'll break my heart to see him leave in free agency, but that's for another day. This is the magic of baseball, so I'm fully enjoying the moment. My 9 year olds I coach are all into Judge, Pujols going after 700, and their local team (the Dodgers) chasing a ring. I know it's not like this everywhere...but here, in my small part of the world, baseball is still our pastime.
Darn…thought you young dude with young kids……….must be fun sharing the moment with your son over the phone!!!!!!
 
I actually played the live over at 59 and 59.5……remember you talking about the over so I tailed…..
Then added 2nd half over instead…..missed by the hook cause UCLA went for 2 and missed

USA can ball…..their TT will be one to look into….and the overs too…..

that one was way too close, but at least it hit.

a couple TTs i've got my eye on are Memphis and Kansas.
 
Just a couple doubles from Judge today. ;)

Not going to quote my other post, but this isn't the single greatest (non PED) season in the history of the game. Just me being overly excited with the moment, because it is the greatest of my lifetime...and I can remember things back to the '76 season.

Babe had a couple better, Gehrig did too, DiMaggio, Mantle, and I'm sure a couple others who weren't Yankees...but without PEDs, and in the modern era...especially since I've been watching/paying attention...this is just the most amazing season. Wish the country was on board, but I get it...we've all been fooled too many times.
 
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back to football...

i'm trying to remain patient, and i fully get the reverse line movement...but that said, it's starting to piss me off a bit. Oregon St down to +5.5 and Kansas St down to +12.5 today. Is it asking too much to get a freakin +7 and +14 to take the inferior teams? ;)
i'm joking, to an extent. just getting tired of constantly checking the lines at 3 shops over and over again to no avail.

however, i do have two additions for tonight. one more action/fun play, because i lost the value on sunday with a team i really wanted to back this week...and another that finally touched +7 right now at BaS.


James Madison (+7) for 1/2
Washington St (+7) for 1



back later tonight with some more stuff.
 
updated card as of Weds nite...


Coastal Carolina/Georgia St over 62 for 1/2
Syracuse (-9) for 1
Michigan (-17) for 1
Ohio St (-18) for 1
Florida (+10) @ -105 for 1
Toledo (-1) @ -118 for 1
Miami (-26) for 1
Texas (-4) for 1
Wake Forest (+7.5) for 1
Stanford (+14.5) @ -117 for 1
Utah (-13.5) @ -120 for 1
Michigan St (+3) for 1/2
Louisiana Tech (+13) for 1/2
James Madison (+7) for 1/2
Washington St (+7) for 1



hopefully more to come.
 
alright, time for the Week #5 look ahead. not all the games, but some that i've picked out. first week of october! part one (13 games)...


Bama @ Arkansas
Bama off Vandy, with A&M on deck. Hogs off A&M, with Messy on deck. Tide has won L15 in series. LY 42-35 was closest in a while. With this weeks' numbers, I make the Hogs a 13 pt home dog. Prolly too much.

A&M @ Messy
A&M off Hogs, with Bama on deck. Messy off BG, with Hogs next. 8 of L10 in series as SEC have been decided by 10+ pts. Not sure how that happens with these offenses, lol. As of today, I make Messy a 3 pt fav at home.

Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Cats off NIU, with Scary on deck. Ole Miss off Tulsa, with Vandy next. Not much recent history, but L2 games were decided by 1 & 3 pts...both at Tucky, but won by Ole Miss. Make Ole Miss a 6 pt fav by today's numbers. Their homecoming.

LSU @ Auburn
LSU off NM, with Tenny next. Aubbie off Mizzou, with Georgia on deck. Home team is 18-4 SU, 14-7-1 ATS. 12 of L18 decided by 7 pts or less. Dog 6 straight covers in series, and 4 of L5 have been outright upsets. Make Aubbie a 6 pt hm dog as of today.

Rutgers @ Ohio St
RU off Iowa, with Nebby next. tOSU off Wisky, with MSU on deck. Buckeyes 8-0 SU by ave of 42.5 ppg, yet 6-2 ATS. RU has covered the L2 as huge dogs. Anyhow, i make Ohio St a 28 pt fav right now.

Michigan @ Iowa
UM off Maryland, with Indiana next. Iowa of Rutgers, with Illinois on deck. UM 6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS since '02...also 4-1 ATS L5. UM destroyed Iowa in the B10 title game LY. Make Iowa a 10 pt home dog in this one, again at today's numbers.

Mich St @ Maryland
MSU off Minny, with Ohio St on deck. Maryland off Michigan, with Purdue next. Spartans have won 4 straight, but 2-2 ATS. Home team 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS. I've got this as a pick em as of today.

Illinois @ Wisky
Illy off FCS, with Iowa next. Wisky off Ohio St, with NW on deck. Home team is 4-2, 5-1 ATS. Illy is 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in Madison. I make Wisky an 11.5 pt fav here.

Purdue @ Minny
Purdue off FAU, with Maryland next. Minny off MSU, with a bye next. Homecoming for them too. Minny 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS...and won/covered L4 straight. I make Minny a 6 pt fav as of today.

NCST @ Clemson
NCST off UConn, with FSU on deck. Clemson off WF, with BC next. Tigers had won 8 straight in series until LYs double OT loss. Tigers 4-7 ATS vs NCST. I make Clemson a 9 pt fav as of today, but hope it'll be much less. Tbh, I think Clemson is looking ahead to this game. Love NCST, but if there's value, i'm already leaning towards Clemson in this one...after backing Wake against them this week.

Wake @ FSU
WF off Clemson, with Army on deck. FSU off BC, with NCST next. WF won L2 after losing the 7 before that. Visitor lost 4 of L5 in series, which is good for the Noles homecoming. L7 have also gone under. I make FSU a 7 pt fav as of today.

VT @ UNC
VT off WVU, with Pitt next. UNC off ND, with Miami on deck. UNC lost 5 of L6. VT not good, but it's a sandwich spot for the Heels. Visitor in series is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS. Also UNC has also won L4 conf home openers. Make the Heels an 8 pt fav as of today, and that's the side I'm leaning towards.

Virginia @ Duke
UVA's offense is a mess, with o-line issues, but they've won the L7 SU/ATS in series. I make Duke a 1 pt fav at home as of today.


:tiphat:
 
part two of the Week #5 look ahead (also 13 games)...


Oklahoma @ TCU
Okie off KSt, with Texas on deck. TCU off SMU, with Kansas next. OU is 6-1 ATS since '16 vs TCU. Home team is 3-7 ATS. I make TCU a 6 pt hm dog as of today, but I could see one of those 4.5 or 5.5 lines too.

Okie Lite @ Baylor
Cowboys off a bye, with TT next. Bears off Iowa St, with a bye next. Baylor's won 6 of L9, and is 4-1 ATS L5 at home in series. They split last year. I make Baylor a 2.5 pt fav at home as of today. Might be leaning Cowboys already though.

Texas Tech @ Kansas St
TT off Texas, with Okie Lite on deck. KSt off Oklahoma, with Iowa St next. KSt is 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in series since '11. Under also 3-1 in L4. As of today, I make KSt a 2 pt fav at home.

Iowa St @ Kansas
ISU off Baylor, with KSt next. Kansas off Duke, with TCU on deck. ISU won 11 of L12 in series, covering 5 of L7. 7 straight KU Ls by ave of 28 pts. Yet by today's numbers, I make KU a 3 pt home dog.

Oregon St @ Utah
Beavs off USC, with Stanford next. Utes off ASU, with UCLA on deck. Utes won 5 of L6, but 2-4 ATS. They lost LY at OSU. Visitor in series is 4 of L7, 5-2 ATS. I make Utah a 13 pt fav at home as of today.

ASU @ USC
ASU off Utah, with UW next. USC off OSU, with Wazzou on deck. Home team has lost 3 of L5 in series, going 1-4 ATS...but we'll see where the Devils are at after all this extraneous stuff. Trojans 17 of L22, but 11-10-1 ATS. As of today, I make USC a 14 pt fav.

Washington @ UCLA
UW off Stanford, with ASU on deck. UCLA off Colorado, with Utah next. Bruins 11 of L15 in series, 10-5 ATS...including 8 of L9 at home, 7-2 ATS. As of today, I make UCLA a 2.5 pt home dog. Very interested in this game.

Stanford @ Oregon
Tree off UW, with Beavs on deck. Ducks off Wazzou, with Zona next. Ducks have way more talent, but have lost 4 of L6 SU and ATS in series. Nevertheless, as of today, I make Oregon a 16 pt fav here.

Cal @ Wash St
Cal off Arizona, with a bye next. Wazzou off Oregon, with USC next. Talk about a sandwich. Furthermore, Cal has won 12 of L16 in series, including 5-2 SU/ATS in Pullman. Home team has also won 5 of L6, but is 3-3 ATS. I make Wash St a 4 pt fav as of today.

Cincy @ Tulsa
Cincy off Indiana, with USF next. Tulsa off Ole Miss, with Navy on deck. Cincy has won 8 of L9 in series, but are 4-5 ATS. Tulsa has L3 ATS as well. As of today, I make Tulsa a 12.5 pt home dog.

SMU @ UCF
SMU off TCU, with a bye next. UCF off GT, with a bye next as well. Home team is 6-2 SU & 8-0 ATS in series. SMU broke a 5 game streak LY going off for 541 yards. I make UCF a 2 pt fav at home though, as of today.

ULM @ Arky St
Mentioning this one not because it's their homecoming, but because Arky St has won and covered the L12 in this series. Gotta keep that streak alive, right? Lucky 13, lol. I make them a 14 pt home fav as of today, so if accurate as of next week's numbers, it'll be a challenge.

CMU @ Toledo
They won't want to leave beautiful San Diego, but it's the Rocket's homecoming too. Home team in series has won 4 straight, and 3-1 ATS. Toledo 10 of L12, 9-3 ATS vs CMU, including 6-1 L7 at home ATS. Make them a 7 pt hm fav as of today.


Whew...that's about my limit for typing shit out. I didn't proofread, but who cares. Just some fun shit to look forward to the following week's slate of games, or at least the ones that stand out to me at first glance. Remember, these numbers i'm giving to the games are based upon my composite PR#s before the Week #4 games have taken place.

I gotta bail at 1:30 my time this Sunday for baseball, so hopefully the lines will come out super early this week.

:tiphat:
 
alright, time for the Week #5 look ahead. not all the games, but some that i've picked out. first week of october! part one (13 games)...


Bama @ Arkansas
Bama off Vandy, with A&M on deck. Hogs off A&M, with Messy on deck. Tide has won L15 in series. LY 42-35 was closest in a while. With this weeks' numbers, I make the Hogs a 13 pt home dog. Prolly too much.

A&M @ Messy
A&M off Hogs, with Bama on deck. Messy off BG, with Hogs next. 8 of L10 in series as SEC have been decided by 10+ pts. Not sure how that happens with these offenses, lol. As of today, I make Messy a 3 pt fav at home.

Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Cats off NIU, with Scary on deck. Ole Miss off Tulsa, with Vandy next. Not much recent history, but L2 games were decided by 1 & 3 pts...both at Tucky, but won by Ole Miss. Make Ole Miss a 6 pt fav by today's numbers. Their homecoming.

LSU @ Auburn
LSU off NM, with Tenny next. Aubbie off Mizzou, with Georgia on deck. Home team is 18-4 SU, 14-7-1 ATS. 12 of L18 decided by 7 pts or less. Dog 6 straight covers in series, and 4 of L5 have been outright upsets. Make Aubbie a 6 pt hm dog as of today.

Rutgers @ Ohio St
RU off Iowa, with Nebby next. tOSU off Wisky, with MSU on deck. Buckeyes 8-0 SU by ave of 42.5 ppg, yet 6-2 ATS. RU has covered the L2 as huge dogs. Anyhow, i make Ohio St a 28 pt fav right now.

Michigan @ Iowa
UM off Maryland, with Indiana next. Iowa of Rutgers, with Illinois on deck. UM 6-7 SU, 7-5-1 ATS since '02...also 4-1 ATS L5. UM destroyed Iowa in the B10 title game LY. Make Iowa a 10 pt home dog in this one, again at today's numbers.

Mich St @ Maryland
MSU off Minny, with Ohio St on deck. Maryland off Michigan, with Purdue next. Spartans have won 4 straight, but 2-2 ATS. Home team 3-1 SU, but 1-3 ATS. I've got this as a pick em as of today.

Illinois @ Wisky
Illy off FCS, with Iowa next. Wisky off Ohio St, with NW on deck. Home team is 4-2, 5-1 ATS. Illy is 0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS in Madison. I make Wisky an 11.5 pt fav here.

Purdue @ Minny
Purdue off FAU, with Maryland next. Minny off MSU, with a bye next. Homecoming for them too. Minny 8-1 SU/6-3 ATS...and won/covered L4 straight. I make Minny a 6 pt fav as of today.

NCST @ Clemson
NCST off UConn, with FSU on deck. Clemson off WF, with BC next. Tigers had won 8 straight in series until LYs double OT loss. Tigers 4-7 ATS vs NCST. I make Clemson a 9 pt fav as of today, but hope it'll be much less. Tbh, I think Clemson is looking ahead to this game. Love NCST, but if there's value, i'm already leaning towards Clemson in this one...after backing Wake against them this week.

Wake @ FSU
WF off Clemson, with Army on deck. FSU off BC, with NCST next. WF won L2 after losing the 7 before that. Visitor lost 4 of L5 in series, which is good for the Noles homecoming. L7 have also gone under. I make FSU a 7 pt fav as of today.

VT @ UNC
VT off WVU, with Pitt next. UNC off ND, with Miami on deck. UNC lost 5 of L6. VT not good, but it's a sandwich spot for the Heels. Visitor in series is 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS. Also UNC has also won L4 conf home openers. Make the Heels an 8 pt fav as of today, and that's the side I'm leaning towards.

Virginia @ Duke
UVA's offense is a mess, with o-line issues, but they've won the L7 SU/ATS in series. I make Duke a 1 pt fav at home as of today.


:tiphat:
Sorry I won’t be able to join in the fun on Sunday but will be back late Sunday night to catch up so hopefully I don’t miss too many good ones. Best of luck this weekend man!
 
Limited in practice, yeah. Would be shocked if he ends up going and is 100%
And FYI - don't think it's been widely reported yet, but be shocked if Vols #1 WR Cedric Tillman plays this week. High ankle sprain - may miss more than just this game and the BYE.
 

sucks that he's out. definitely a big loss. nevertheless, it doesn't change my play. if Tenny can beat the Gators by double digits, i'll tip my cap.


and if things get crazy in game, there's always live action to get some of it back. that's my plan with a lot of these over-matched dogs. if USC or Clemson or Oklahoma or Oregon or UW is just lighting my side up (OSU/WF/KSt/Wazzou/Tree), there's usually a time/place in game to limit the damage.
 
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Judge came pretty close to 61 tonight. Hopefully tomorrow in game #150.
Cool seeing the Maris family there. 9 and 99, both RF (position #9), both come (hopefully, hehe) against the Red Sux...61, 61 years after '61. Love that numbers BS.

Anyhow, I tried uploading a video from my phone but can't figure it out. Was at Angel Stadium for #50 with the kids and thought I'd share it. At least I saw one of them in person this year. As much grief as I give Manfred for all these lame changes to the game, I am a fan of the truly balanced schedule that'll come. Many reason, but also more opportunities to see the Yanks playing on the west coast!!!



Oregon St and Kansas St are stubbornly hanging at +5.5 and +12.5, despite 2/3s of the plays being on the favorites...so still waiting on those two.

Excellent 1st half tonight, so even a blah 2nd half couldn't keep the Coastal game from going over. Hopefully Orange can keep the week starting off right with a great game tomorrow evening as well.

As for potential other plays...
- thinking about a 1H play on South Carolina (was at -13 last i looked).
- looking at possible team totals as well: UNC, Penn St, Kansas, Memphis, and Purdue.
- could use TTs to help get out of anything that goes seriously sideways on Saturday as well.

Back around tomorrow
 
xcellent 1st half tonight, so even a blah 2nd half couldn't keep the Coastal game from going over. Hopefully Orange can keep the week starting off right with a great game tomorrow evening as well.
Was counting my winnings at half time…….then I started to hedge late 3rd quarter and ended up middle the game…….past 2 weeks, when I don’t watch the games, they score, once I had it on, they stopped scoring….

Pretty nice weather today in NY……gonna play the judge HR prop till it hits……
 
Three more. A little movement today on KSt, and two more smaller actions plays. Mentioned the Scary 1H above, and Arizona crept back up to +4 at BM.


Kansas St (+14) @ -115 for 1
Arizona (+4) for 1/2
South Carolina 1H (-13.5) for 1/2



Just waiting on the Beavers at this point. It's back to +6, so will see where we're at later tonight.
 
updated card as of Friday afternoon...


Coastal Carolina/Georgia St over 62 for 1/2 W
Syracuse (-9) for 1
Michigan (-17) for 1
Ohio St (-18) for 1
Florida (+10) @ -105 for 1
Toledo (-1) @ -118 for 1
Miami (-26) for 1
Texas (-4) for 1
Wake Forest (+7.5) for 1
Stanford (+14.5) @ -117 for 1
Utah (-13.5) @ -120 for 1
Michigan St (+3) for 1/2
Louisiana Tech (+13) for 1/2
James Madison (+7) for 1/2
Washington St (+7) for 1
Kansas St (+14) @ -115 for 1
Arizona (+4) for 1/2
South Carolina 1H (-13.5) for 1/2



big card this Saturday (too big), and a handful of team totals i've got my eye on too. if anything goes seriously sideways, and looks like a blowout, i'll be making additional plays live where/when possible. gotta watch the games, and see how things shake out.

back later tonight to add Oregon St in some fashion. BOL tomorrow!
 
pinche Syracuse...
they gave a textbook example of how to screw up an easy win/cover tonight. dominate a 1H, but settle for a bunch of FGs. turn the ball over a ton, add in a bunch of penalties, and allow a dead team to find life. kinda wish they would've lost outright, because they certainly deserved it.

anyhow, lets get that crap out of the way and move on to last Saturday of September. hopefully it'll be a good one. last two additions. the rest (live and TT) will have to go un-posted.


Oregon St (+6) @ -115 for 1
Rice/Houston over 51.5 for 1/2



could never get the Beavs to the key number i wanted, but it is what it is.

:tiphat:
 
back to football...

i'm trying to remain patient, and i fully get the reverse line movement...but that said, it's starting to piss me off a bit. Oregon St down to +5.5 and Kansas St down to +12.5 today. Is it asking too much to get a freakin +7 and +14 to take the inferior teams? ;)
i'm joking, to an extent. just getting tired of constantly checking the lines at 3 shops over and over again to no avail.

however, i do have two additions for tonight. one more action/fun play, because i lost the value on sunday with a team i really wanted to back this week...and another that finally touched +7 right now at BaS.


James Madison (+7) for 1/2
Washington St (+7) for 1



back later tonight with some more stuff.
GL on these. I like Wash St. also
 
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