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Week 13 DFS/Props Discussion

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
DAL/NOS

DAL DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
NOS DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 4th, decent O/U.
T. Hill? has the 7th worst ASR matchup. Dak has the 9th best ASR matchup.


We know Wilson is out, do we have definite confirmation on cooper playing? Gallup and Brown played over 90% of snaps last week. I have to assume lamb will now be in that area, and maybe cooper?

Even prior to jarwins IR, Schultz was beginning to get 80%+ of snaps.... and since he's been out he's played 95%+ of snaps (minus the drubbing they did to ATL wk10). I think he can be played with confidence.

I don't like zekes production going down to about a 60-40 split, but I like the dallas defense, and I think it correlates well with the backs.... you could be sneaky and start both, or take a shot with one or the other.

Part of the reason I like dallas d. the saints will be without there best tackle in armstead, as well as ramczyk (who has missed last 2 weeks too though).... no Kamara, and taysom is in.

With taysom in... I think at best you can dart throw 1 wr... but I'd rather use him as my saints player, as he should be invovled in ALL td's the saints do(or don't) score. Maybe an ingram - mont/jones if you're feeling frisky... but I may actually do a 5-1 stack here with just taysom, or 4-2 at best
 
Winning lineup had a 4-2 dallas-saints stack with the 2 being Taysom and a dart throw wr (harris, was humphrey). 4 Dallas was defense/pollard/lamb/big z, but some up there with gallup as the 4th.

Got back about 120% above my entries!

I'll try to get sundays summaries in tomorrow as I have a wedding that day.
 
Same story guys, let us/me know of injuries/mistakes/etc. And do know my quick thoughts are without salary/snap info at the moment.

IND/HOU

IND DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, bad vs P D.
HOU DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 14th (out of 14). O/U is T-9th out of remaining 13.
Wentz has the T9th worst ASR matchup, 8th worst of main slate.
Taylor has the 3rd best ALY push. Da. Johnson? has the T-5th worst ALY matchup.


We already know we don't want many or any texans. There running situation sucks, the matchup sucks, they wont have a good push for them that sucks, the game script doesn't favor them, so that sucks, and the pace of play is last, so that sucks. If you want to take a shot with a ppr back, be my guest, but you're burning money. Taylor will end with the most rushing yards (and could be a sneaky/low owned option), he's also easily paired with cooks if you'd like, who has kind of fallen off the radar a bit.

The newer alpha in JTaylor is viable here. He's pricey, but would you be shocked if someone said a floor of 100+/2+ is reasonable? I can only talk people off of him if you're looking at gaining leverage. I also don't know how cheap some of these pivot options are (but I know we have mattisons/jamal williams of the world so I'd assume we can fit in Taylor this week pretty reasonably).

It's probably onl;y spots I'd go here, as the O/U is meh, and the pace sucks.

TBB/ATL

TBB DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
ATL DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U is 1st. (Large spread = highest TT for TBB)
Brady has the 2nd best ASR matchup.
Fournette has the T-1st best ALY matchup. Patterson? has the 3rd worst ALY matchup.


Ok so we probably need to touch this game in someway. Almost like last week, but not as much of a surprise, fournette is viable here. So are Brady stacks with 1 or 2 of Godwin/Evans/Gronk.

Big O/U and a fave stack, means you have to consider a bring back. Gage has been stepping up recently (if I recall correctly), patterson can be viable but I'd rather pass. Pitts would be my 2nd option. --------- if you have 1 spot left to fill and you need a cheapie, you could dart throw the WR2/3 as they should be inexpensive.

ARI/CHI

ARI DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
CHI DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, and bad vs P D.
Pace of play is T-12th slowest. O/U is 3rd lowest, 2nd lowest of main slate.
Dalton? has the worst ASR matchup of the week. Kyler? has the 3rd worst.
Connor? has the 10th best ALY matchup, 7th best of the main slate.


I'm probably passing here, I don't like the pass/total. Dalton is confirmed? If so, arizona defense is definitely viable, if you want to correlate it with short yard TD king 1A Connor, I don't think thats unreasonable. The only other option, is I guess murray/hopkins are in a bad matchup, and concerns coming off injury, it could be a low owned dynamite stack/pivot. I just don't know if you need to take that risk here.

MIN/DET

MIN DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
DET DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is T-10th slowest. O/U is 5th of main slate (out of 11).
Goff? has the 5th worst ASR matchup. Cousins has the best ASR Matchup.
Jam Will has the 8th best ALY matchup, 6th of main slate.


I mentioned it earlier, but both backup backs are viable here --- probably the only detriot player I'd want. I think cousins can be stacked with 1 of his alphas (probably jefferson for me). but I don't want to go overboard.

NYG/MIA

NYG DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D.
MIA DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 5th, O/U is dead last.
NYG backup has the 8th worst ASR matchup, 7th of main slate.
Barkley? Has the 2nd worst ALY matchup.


full disclosure MIA is my survivor pick, and this was made when the spread was -3 and not knowing the danny dimes news. Soooo I like MIA even more! I can't get behind playing anyone in the Giants.... I guess a PPR back is viable, but I'd expect the giants typical pace to be slower (kind of hampering the 5th fastest rating of the week). You could take PPR Rookie Waddle, but Gaskin actually makes the most sense. I feel like Miami has typically had bad matchups in that area, and he has stayed afloat, and now they have a smash spot for him, could get overlooked by the cheaper options (like mentioned above), and the expensive options... so may be a nice pivot.

LAC/CIN

LAC DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
CIN DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is T-10th. O/U is .5 away from first.
Burrow has the 6th worst ASR matchup. Herbert has the 5th best.
Mixon has the T-1st best ALY matchup. Ekeler has the T-7th worst ALY matchup.


I'm torn here. The O/U is good, its supposed to be a competitive game. The glaring matchup is Mixon and I have to have a few shares, but something is telling me to pivot off here. I do think it stays under the total, but I will devote a lineup or 2 to a game stack. Think Mixon with Herbert to WR bring back.

PHI/NYJ

PHI DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
NYJ DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 3rd. O/U is T-9th.
Sanders? Has the 5th best ALY matchup, 4th of main slate.


If I remember correctly, Bo Scott may be out? If so, will they finally use Sanders at a higher rate... please?! My fantasy leagues beg for it too --- Side bar, feel like the guy averages good numbers, just doesn't get the attempts.... then he gets hurt, and these other guys get double the amount of touches.... frustrating. --- I love the pace, and I love the matchup for PHI... I think Hurts is a good solo option, I think he can be paired with his pass catchers... and I like sanders more if another back is out. They've been good at defending opposing WRs... but we have to find 1 bring back on the jets... I need to look at snaps here, especially if we want it to be the PPR back.

WAS/LVR

WAS DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
LVR DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U is 3rd.
Carr has the 10th best ASR matchup, 8th of main slate.
Jacobs has the T-7th worst ALY matchup.


This game sneaking under raders? Above average pace, good o/u, and great pass matchups. MACHlaurin may be a play for me despite raiders holding wr's to low fantasy points. Moreau could be a cheap TE option if waller is out, he had a solid 6 catch 1 td game (forget the yardage) in the game waller was last out, and this is as good as a matchup you can get. Others are viable -renfrow/edwards/etc.

JAC/LAR

JAC DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
LAR DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U is 4th.
Lawrence has 7th best ASR matchup of main slate. Stafford has 3rd best.
Henderson? has 7th best ALY matchup, 5th of main slate.


I keep waiting for the day for playing Lawrence to pay off, and it just isn't happening.... and he's had plus matchups. The pace is good, the ASR matchup is good, but the DVOA is meh...... the game script does favor him, but I think I'd rather one-off a pass catcher if I game stack the rams side. I guess michel gets value if henderson is out, but theres a ton of backup starter options... I don't think he'd be the forgotten one as they have the 2nd highest TTotal, and the script fits him.... but I do want a stafford - kupp/obj/jefferson stack, 1 or 2 of them paired with staff.

SFO/SEA

SFO DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, and meh vs RB D.
SEA DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is 9th, O/U 6th highest of main slate.
Wilson has the 4th worst ASR matchup. Garop has the 6th best.
Collins? has the 4th worst ALY matchup, Mitchel has the 10th worst, 9th of main slate.


With no deebo, I think Kittle could be a good option, as well as Aiyuk... don't think I want both, but garop has a great matchup, and good ASR.... pace is ok. I'm kind of off seattle... while metcalf or lockett can be a slate breaker, they just haven't had it.. and the run game has been abysmal. I'd rather take other guys in the assumed price range (like mclaurin) but if you want to one-off one, go ahead.

BAL/PIT

BAL DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
PIT DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-12, O/U is 10th.
Lamar has the 2nd worst ASR matchup. Big Ben has the 4th best.
Najee has the worst ALY matchup. Freeman? has the T-5th worst ALY matchup.


One of a WR at best. Diontae can go unnoticed, and he has huge ppr value with high upside. Claypool can hit a home run, and we know balty likes to blitza bunch. We know balty can hit one too... I don't want much else, dont care for the pace, the slugfest these matchups usually are, etc.
 
taylor is freaking -250 to score a td!! lol.. not sure if that even worth using in parlays? +210 for 2 tds if ya wanna get greedy, prob not a bad bet, one rushing one receiving! im little tempted by a houston rb but it would be Burkhead but he really not as cheap as i thought he be considering the risk of him doing nothin, think he be the texans back to play in dfs tho (if there is one?), they should be trailing which is perfect game script for him, i could see him with a decent day just needed him to be down around 4k or lower to use him, not 4800 i think i saw him at!
 
For some reason Philly refuses to give sanders the touches they give lessor backs when he out, I’ve never understood it. Sounded to me like Hurts isn’t gonna play which should further hurt the run game, I suspect they will pass more with Minshew?
 
Prob a common one but yes I have some stacks w mixon/chargers passing game. I didn’t love mixon rushing total over even tho it looks easy (91.5), little scared game script gets cincy behind early and they throw more but luckily mixon can catch so I do like his receptions over 2.5 and if I was gonna play his yards I would go rush/receiving combined even tho you get charged a 4-5 yard premium combining the 2, makes more sense to go that route with him just in case they get taken out of run mode.
 
Excited to see Williams this week vs kc with Gordon out, damn shame this didn’t happen last week vs Chargers!
 
Also some stacks w carr/raiders wrs (some combo of renfro/te/zay Jones or Edwards) along with Gibson and thomas or mcclarion for the FT.

Few Brady and his wrs, few cousins and his wrs.
 
had my worst prop week of season last week (who woulda guessed freaking TD lenny would score all freaking bucs tds against a team that stingy when it comes to rbs scoring on them?!!?!??), anyways, not deterred so here we go:

td scorers (lot of chalk):

evans -105
mixon -165
gibson -125
mitchell -125
conner -150

2tds

taylor +210
mixon +310
conner +360

QB props:

Dalton un 217.5 pass yards
zach wilson un 224.5 py
Herbert ov 1.5 tds -160
tyrod ov 17.5 rush yards

RB rush yards:

taylor ov 104.5
Gibson ov 71.5
Mitchell ov87.5
J Williams ov71.5 (prob will add his td prop later, i forgot)


receptions:

mixon ov2.5
Logan Thomas ov3.5

receiving yards:

l thomas ov 40.5
k Allen ov 82.5
Bateman ov 29.5
zay jones ov 30.5
renfro ov62.5
Aiyuk ov60.5
theilen ov65.5
jefferson ov 81.5
godwin ov 70.5
evans ov59.5

think that enough, lol.. i didnt bet them all straight, just a bunch of various RR parlays!!
 
my apologies for not remembering who it is but someone is always posting te reception props he cashing in the in-game thread, i dont do a great job identifying these te's who gonna catch over their number, it be awesome if whomever that was would post them here!!!
 
my apologies for not remembering who it is but someone is always posting te reception props he cashing in the in-game thread, i dont do a great job identifying these te's who gonna catch over their number, it be awesome if whomever that was would post them here!!!
wasn't me but i took Moreau over 31.5 and o'shaughnessy over 2.5 recs for TE props
 
wasn't me but i took Moreau over 31.5 and o'shaughnessy over 2.5 recs for TE props

man, i totally forgot bout that dude for raiders, ugh, didnt have him wrote down but then going to sleep last night listening to the bet the board pod they brought him up and just straight forgot this morning to add and look at his yardage and reception numbers. im sure he super cheap in dfs too, damn.
 
think ya gotta play pats rb rush totals over, harris ov48.5 a must, stephenson ov43.5 also, bills love that nickle d, no doubt in my mind hoody gonna line up with a bunch of tight ends and punish them for it!! ill take harris to score a td at +150 also, that a crazy good price imo, he aint on injury report is he?
 
Hurting at the moment....

getting this down, hopefully awake for the game tonight.

NEP/BUF

NEP DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
BUF DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is T-6th, O/U is pretty low for NFL standards, 2nd lowest of week.
Mac has the T-7th worst ASR matchup.
Breida? has the 9th best ALY matchup. Da. Harris? has the 9th worst.


Weather comments from 4 hours ago

"- Not expecting much (any?) snow. Just a few snow showers or flurries.
- Temps a hair above freezing, “feels-like” temp 20°.
- WINDY!!! Sustained winds at kickoff 25mph with gusts 45+, dropping some in 2nd half."

Short game/running. Possibly look for a 2nd half over, if the first half plays terribly slow/low and the books over adjust
 
shocked to hear this a bad matchup for Harris, i think bills defensive numbers are largely based on playing a really weak schedule of bad offenses. look what colts run game did to them! Harris aint no taylor but the reason it so surprising to me is cause bills are part of this new age defensive trend where they somewhat invite teams to run by playing a ton of nickle defense even on early downs. to me that makes this a good matchup for Harris, it the bad teams who didnt have success on the ground. im willing to say bills have only played 3 teams with legit run games, titans and colts both gashed them, granted they have a couple the best backs in the league, harris isnt on those 2 level but i do think pats run game is. they also played the WFT who run game they did pretty much shut down but they did so because they got out to a big lead and the football team was forced to abandon the run game..
 
shocked to hear this a bad matchup for Harris, i think bills defensive numbers are largely based on playing a really weak schedule of bad offenses. look what colts run game did to them! Harris aint no taylor but the reason it so surprising to me is cause bills are part of this new age defensive trend where they somewhat invite teams to run by playing a ton of nickle defense even on early downs. to me that makes this a good matchup for Harris, it the bad teams who didnt have success on the ground. im willing to say bills have only played 3 teams with legit run games, titans and colts both gashed them, granted they have a couple the best backs in the league, harris isnt on those 2 level but i do think pats run game is. they also played the WFT who run game they did pretty much shut down but they did so because they got out to a big lead and the football team was forced to abandon the run game..
Could be a product of who they've played but 13~ game sample size for an NFL season is good enough, regardless of competition.

Keep in mind the ALY is adjusted line yards when comparing ones offensive line (NE) to the opposing defensive line (BUF)... could argue indy has one of the best lines in the league too. But I don't disagree...I just worry the backfield is getting muddied as the season has progressed (not happy about that as I have harris in a few leagues)... and they'll probably be stacking the box more with this weather.
 
Could be a product of who they've played but 13~ game sample size for an NFL season is good enough, regardless of competition.

Keep in mind the ALY is adjusted line yards when comparing ones offensive line (NE) to the opposing defensive line (BUF)... could argue indy has one of the best lines in the league too. But I don't disagree...I just worry the backfield is getting muddied as the season has progressed (not happy about that as I have harris in a few leagues)... and they'll probably be stacking the box more with this weather.

i will be real curious cause bills MO has been to basically stay in that nickle even when they getting smashed with the run game. i kinda disagree bout the sample being good enough when i look at the list of teams they have played, there really nothing i can take from it as they have played the most pathetic schedule of offenses i have ever seen! 8 games in which their stats from those basically mean nothing to me, that a lot of games! the backfield shuffle with hoody always super annoying but that obviously why Harris number is less than 50, im pretty confident he either goes for 80+ or they both get 50 in this one.. if it wasnt for the muddled situation i would def be looking at another one those prop specials like i played on williams last night, i saw some +1000 to +1500 that would be super enticing if the carries wernt being split with stephenson.. even during this time Harris has basically been the guy at the goalline so think this split is giving us a lot of value in his td price. i hit his rush total and td prop pretty hard so hope im not coming back to say "damn, bills run d is that strong", lol..

anything catch your eye tonight? Allen over 35.5 rush yards is somewhat intriguing to me, my problem with anything else in bills passing game is i have no idea what or who hoody will choose to try and take away?
 
i will be real curious cause bills MO has been to basically stay in that nickle even when they getting smashed with the run game. i kinda disagree bout the sample being good enough when i look at the list of teams they have played, there really nothing i can take from it as they have played the most pathetic schedule of offenses i have ever seen! 8 games in which their stats from those basically mean nothing to me, that a lot of games! the backfield shuffle with hoody always super annoying but that obviously why Harris number is less than 50, im pretty confident he either goes for 80+ or they both get 50 in this one.. if it wasnt for the muddled situation i would def be looking at another one those prop specials like i played on williams last night, i saw some +1000 to +1500 that would be super enticing if the carries wernt being split with stephenson.. even during this time Harris has basically been the guy at the goalline so think this split is giving us a lot of value in his td price. i hit his rush total and td prop pretty hard so hope im not coming back to say "damn, bills run d is that strong", lol..

anything catch your eye tonight? Allen over 35.5 rush yards is somewhat intriguing to me, my problem with anything else in bills passing game is i have no idea what or who hoody will choose to try and take away?
Allen rush yards over definitely something in interested in.... debating meyers/beasley receptions...maybe diggs
 
think ya gotta play pats rb rush totals over, harris ov48.5 a must, stephenson ov43.5 also, bills love that nickle d, no doubt in my mind hoody gonna line up with a bunch of tight ends and punish them for it!! ill take harris to score a td at +150 also, that a crazy good price imo, he aint on injury report is he?
No Pats are actually quite healthy right now. I grabbed Harris with an odds boost to +199 anytime TD & Stephenson at like +290. One of them should be able to find the EZ.

Struck me as odd how low some of the rushing yards props are given how windy it's going to be.
 
No Pats are actually quite healthy right now. I grabbed Harris with an odds boost to +199 anytime TD & Stephenson at like +290. One of them should be able to find the EZ.

Struck me as odd how low some of the rushing yards props are given how windy it's going to be.

i considered stephenson for a td also but Harris has pretty much been the guy down at goalline anytime he been healthy, of course that means tonight stephenson will get more touches down there, lol.. i wonder if they would factor something like the wind? it could kinda hurt us in a way, as scopey said bills could elect to play more in the box than they ever do if it proves to tough to pass. i would think these numbers just based off bills run d rank and them splitting carries. who knows, sometimes we get some gems, sometimes they were low for a reason and dont work out, lol.. i feel pretty good with Harris over 48.5, long as he gets 12-15 touches ill be happy no matter what happens :) i didnt play steohenson cause i was kinda worried if i played both guys rush totals they would split and id just eat the juice, with the tds and especially with your booster a split be great obviously, lets just hope its harris even tho that pays you less!! lol (or hell they both can score, that be cool!)
 
Don’t hate the idea of finding some props fading the kicking game. Under longest fg, successful 2pt conversion, etc
 
think ya gotta play pats rb rush totals over, harris ov48.5 a must, stephenson ov43.5 also, bills love that nickle d, no doubt in my mind hoody gonna line up with a bunch of tight ends and punish them for it!! ill take harris to score a td at +150 also, that a crazy good price imo, he aint on injury report is he?
:siren::siren::siren:
 
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