Week 12 ML DOGS
- Thread starter ProV1Colt
- Start date
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Was looking because I know turnovers have been a big deal for UConn this year. They have gained 20 on the year which ties for 12th nationally. They had a net 0 margin vs Liberty, but one of UConn's TDs was on D in that game. UConn was +2 vs UMass, +5 vs BC, +3 vs FIU and +1 vs Fresno. They were -2 vs Central Conn, which they could get away with it. In their six wins UConn is +9 TO margin. In their five losses they are -5 which includes being -1 in their loss at Ball State.
Army is similar. In their six losses they are -7 TO margin. In their three wins they are +4
Army is similar. In their six losses they are -7 TO margin. In their three wins they are +4
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
UConn outgained Fresno, but their last 5 games they have been outgained. FIU outgained them slightly.
Vs Liberty won 36-33, outgained 318-474
Vs UMass won 27-10, outgained 334-351
Vs BC won 13-3 , outgained 280-335
at Ball lost 21-25 , outgained 323-356
at FIU won 33-12, outgained 402-409
Vs Liberty won 36-33, outgained 318-474
Vs UMass won 27-10, outgained 334-351
Vs BC won 13-3 , outgained 280-335
at Ball lost 21-25 , outgained 323-356
at FIU won 33-12, outgained 402-409
Rusty Trombone
Well-Known Member
Duke and Ok St (if Sanders plays) on the radar....
CPA-hole
Gas From Brady Singer, Anyone?
The one thing is Toledo is already locked in to MAC title game and BG needs a win to get bowl eligible. Use that fwiw. Probably not much
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
I just looked at the lines now. I am shocked that UNLV is such a big road favorite at Hawaii! I suppose UNLV beat Utah State and Utah State just beat Hawaii with a 10 pt line, that would be the parallel. After seeing UNLV lose 5 straight it is hard for me to respect that line! I would expect UNLV to lay that at home, not on the islands! And it opened at 8.5 and got bet up?
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
WVU is better at home, just beat OU, beat Baylor, played closer than the final vs TCU. Can they do it?
I like Duke. Pitt didn't have to work very hard last week as they jumped out 14-0 on two pick-sixes :16 into the game, their D did smother UVA's O. But look at Pitt's other recent games...19-9 vs Cuse, lost at UNC 24-42 (bad 2H), lost at LV 10-24. Duke is pretty solid. Gave UNC a great game a while back. Crushed Miami, failed to cover vs BC, but I thought they controlled the game, smothered VT last week (427-281 yardage edge). Duke for sure can win.
I could be interested in Illinois if Chase Brown can play. Michigan D will make it hard on Illini O for sure...but think the opposite is true as well. I don't see Michigan scoring a bunch here. Outside of the Penn State game I have not been overly impressed with Michigan.
I am surprised Army is laying DD vs UConn. UConn run D hasn't been the greatest, I don't think I ML UConn
I might like Georgia State vs JMU
Wish UAB was more their typical standard, but they can still make it interesting at LSU considering everything that is going on around LSU. Arkansas-A&M sandwich (both rival games), SEC Championship game on horizon. Looking back however, UAB has had good teams for several years now, but they do not do well vs ACC and SEC types, actually usually lose them big whether they are early in the year or late in the year.
I don't think Washington State should be a road fav at Zona. We know Zona can pull an upset (they've done it 3x this year). de Laura vs old team
Fairly high road chalk line for Oregon State as well. Beavers are pretty strong team and ASU got down big last week, 0-28 but did fight back when they could've easily just quit (only were outgained by 20 yards). Devils have had some occasional good games.
Colorado State would be a big one. They really haven't played that bad in 5 of their last 6 games. Played good enough to beat Wyoming, they led at HT and outgained San Jose by a buch.
San Jose probably should not be a road fav at this point. They trailed at HT to both Nevada and CSU. Just let San Diego St go on a 41-6 run on them. San Jose's last cover was October 8th.
Stanford has issues, but I'm not sure Cal is much better off actually. Huge rivalry game. Cal dominated last year.
Might the Ok St comeback with Sanders propel them in Bedlam? I don't know, ISU did outgain them by nearly 100y and ISU was -5 TOs
Troy is not playing their best ball. Troy has been shut out in the 1H the last two games vs ULL and Army. Trailed ULL 0-17 and trailed Army 0-9. Cameback to win both though. Troy doesn't really score much either. Vs eight G5 teams Troy is averaging just 20.6 ppg and have been held under 24 pts in five. ULM has pulled a couple uspets including last week and have been close in a couple others.
FAU played their best game of the year vs the team they always pound. But FAU has also been upset 3x while MTSU has pulled 3 upsets.
Is UTEP good enough to lay DD?
Texas State as a favorite, it's rare and Tx State has lost 4 straight including losses to the likes of Southern Miss, ULM. Arkansas State has been fading towards the end of the season, but did get a much needed win last week. Either team winning this game would be no shock.
I was really surprised how poorly Georgia Southern played last week at ULL as they were having a pretty decent year and had pulled 3 upsets. Will Marshall have a let down post the '75 Game'? I have no data on how they perform the week after that game. Marshall seems to have righted their ship, but they are still an hard team to understand, like only scoring 12 on ODU, and only 13 on Coastal in their two previous games before last Saturday.
Line seems high for Boise, but Boise does usually do well in this series and Wyoming's QB could be out. Cowboys won ugly last week, but are on a 4 game winning streak and this game at 7220 will decide the MWC Mtn division so high stakes in a key game for a big home dog. Boise blows out bad teams like UNR and CSU (combined score 90-13), but their last two vs good teams in Air Force and BYU they are 1-1 SU with a 19-14 win at AF and a 28-31 home loss to BYU. Wyoming has a good history of upsets and have pulled two already at home this year (Tulsa and AF).
I like Duke. Pitt didn't have to work very hard last week as they jumped out 14-0 on two pick-sixes :16 into the game, their D did smother UVA's O. But look at Pitt's other recent games...19-9 vs Cuse, lost at UNC 24-42 (bad 2H), lost at LV 10-24. Duke is pretty solid. Gave UNC a great game a while back. Crushed Miami, failed to cover vs BC, but I thought they controlled the game, smothered VT last week (427-281 yardage edge). Duke for sure can win.
I could be interested in Illinois if Chase Brown can play. Michigan D will make it hard on Illini O for sure...but think the opposite is true as well. I don't see Michigan scoring a bunch here. Outside of the Penn State game I have not been overly impressed with Michigan.
I am surprised Army is laying DD vs UConn. UConn run D hasn't been the greatest, I don't think I ML UConn
I might like Georgia State vs JMU
Wish UAB was more their typical standard, but they can still make it interesting at LSU considering everything that is going on around LSU. Arkansas-A&M sandwich (both rival games), SEC Championship game on horizon. Looking back however, UAB has had good teams for several years now, but they do not do well vs ACC and SEC types, actually usually lose them big whether they are early in the year or late in the year.
I don't think Washington State should be a road fav at Zona. We know Zona can pull an upset (they've done it 3x this year). de Laura vs old team
Fairly high road chalk line for Oregon State as well. Beavers are pretty strong team and ASU got down big last week, 0-28 but did fight back when they could've easily just quit (only were outgained by 20 yards). Devils have had some occasional good games.
Colorado State would be a big one. They really haven't played that bad in 5 of their last 6 games. Played good enough to beat Wyoming, they led at HT and outgained San Jose by a buch.
San Jose probably should not be a road fav at this point. They trailed at HT to both Nevada and CSU. Just let San Diego St go on a 41-6 run on them. San Jose's last cover was October 8th.
Stanford has issues, but I'm not sure Cal is much better off actually. Huge rivalry game. Cal dominated last year.
Might the Ok St comeback with Sanders propel them in Bedlam? I don't know, ISU did outgain them by nearly 100y and ISU was -5 TOs
Troy is not playing their best ball. Troy has been shut out in the 1H the last two games vs ULL and Army. Trailed ULL 0-17 and trailed Army 0-9. Cameback to win both though. Troy doesn't really score much either. Vs eight G5 teams Troy is averaging just 20.6 ppg and have been held under 24 pts in five. ULM has pulled a couple uspets including last week and have been close in a couple others.
FAU played their best game of the year vs the team they always pound. But FAU has also been upset 3x while MTSU has pulled 3 upsets.
Is UTEP good enough to lay DD?
Texas State as a favorite, it's rare and Tx State has lost 4 straight including losses to the likes of Southern Miss, ULM. Arkansas State has been fading towards the end of the season, but did get a much needed win last week. Either team winning this game would be no shock.
I was really surprised how poorly Georgia Southern played last week at ULL as they were having a pretty decent year and had pulled 3 upsets. Will Marshall have a let down post the '75 Game'? I have no data on how they perform the week after that game. Marshall seems to have righted their ship, but they are still an hard team to understand, like only scoring 12 on ODU, and only 13 on Coastal in their two previous games before last Saturday.
Line seems high for Boise, but Boise does usually do well in this series and Wyoming's QB could be out. Cowboys won ugly last week, but are on a 4 game winning streak and this game at 7220 will decide the MWC Mtn division so high stakes in a key game for a big home dog. Boise blows out bad teams like UNR and CSU (combined score 90-13), but their last two vs good teams in Air Force and BYU they are 1-1 SU with a 19-14 win at AF and a 28-31 home loss to BYU. Wyoming has a good history of upsets and have pulled two already at home this year (Tulsa and AF).
Last edited:
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
That’s a Texas triangle play. Great spot for an upset by UH.
2daBank
Talk with me, please
I can def get behind ku, not sure Texas has the heart for this game and even if they do come out looking like the better team you know ku won’t quit and texas can’t hold leads.
Im kinda interested in Arizona, tough bet cause their defense is so bad but they are making strides under Fisch and all a sudden have a chance to make a bowl game which I think be big for them. They can score with anyone so I think they will be in it, dunno if they be able to get a few stops or not?
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Never my intention to sway somebody off something, but if trust is your thing, I don't think Nebraska qualifies either. Not saying don't do it, but you know, Nebraska isn't any more trustworthy than Hawaii, maybe less.
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
Point taken. Just kind of a they are due and have Thompson back situation. They've been competitive in the 1h quite a few times this year, just hoping they can put an entire game together
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
I will likely have them ATS, so I'll be with you.
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
If it's not them it's Uconn. I don't love this spot for them after the liberty win.
2daBank
Talk with me, please
Why the hell is army -10.5 vs uvon? Are huskies taking the week off after the big win over liberty to become bowl eligible? Like seriously sitting guys? That only way this line makes a lick of sense to me. La Monroe the only d1 team army has beat all year, they 117th in power rating! Now they laying 10.5 to a team who was good enough to get themselves bowl eligible? I just don’t understand this one. Huskies have beat a couple legit teams, I assume other than the service academies hardly anyone else runs the ball as much as ucon so this clock is gonna go fast. Army hasn’t been good against the run. There something I gotta be missing cause -7 would feel high to me.
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
And Monroe was winning at HT.
Army is a weak favorite this year.
UConn has been outgained in their last 5 games in total yardage, but they've won 4 out of 5. UConn relies heavily on gaining turovers and the occasional defensive score or situation setting up a short field.
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
A .500 record is fine, but a winning season is better and Jim Mora and UConn football team are looking to make that happen at Army
Earning win No. 6 and clinching bowl eligibility in hard-fought fashion over a ranked team, fans storming the field on Senior Day, it was a storybook finish to the UConn football team’s final…
www.courant.com
Lots of quotes in here that says UConn isn't content to just win 6 games.
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Concern would be Ok St defense vs OU running game. Sanders played vs Kansas State and Pokes shut out, that is hard to forget. I do think Ok St comeback win vs ISU is a nice shot in the arm.
Gundy doesn't win these often, although he did last year (they were favored so no surprise). Get one in Riley's last year and Venebles first year seems somewhat possible, meaning it should line up for him, not like OU is really good this year - got to beat an average OU team.
2daBank
Talk with me, please
A .500 record is fine, but a winning season is better and Jim Mora and UConn football team are looking to make that happen at Army
Earning win No. 6 and clinching bowl eligibility in hard-fought fashion over a ranked team, fans storming the field on Senior Day, it was a storybook finish to the UConn football team’s final…
Lots of quotes in here that says UConn isn't content to just win 6 games.
That makes me super tempted to at the least take the points. Ucon has like the 5th highest rush rate in the country, obviously army has one the highest, this game should go really quickly, gotta think ucon can score 14-17 points at least, how many possessions there gonna be? 6-7 each maybe? Assuming ucon can score 17 (army run d hasn’t been good) Army gonna have to score on a really high percentage their drives to cover. I don’t like betting against lines I don’t understand tho, feel like I gotta be missing something.
2daBank
Talk with me, please
There no way I would lay 7 that for sure. Not super excited to back okie lite either, Is sanders playing? I’ve heard different things, line made me assume he was out, if he plays and healthy enough to be effective it gotta be cowboys or nothing imo.
pretty sure he playing.....he might be most important player in college football to his team looking at how bad they fell off without him
2daBank
Talk with me, please
He has come a long way since early in his career.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Saw so many Army -10 plays out there, all respectable peeps and my original side because of not trusting UCONN to be able to contain options O defensively but I’m off my Army -10 initial lean and if anything UConn plus pts and sprinkle ml for my money but nothing locked there, yet anyway even though we both talking me into it lol. GL on the action
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Love toppers
bookieassassin
Well-Known Member
17-15 so far
Baylor 1H
Hogs
Charlotte
Middle Tenn
Ga Southern
Baylor 1H
Hogs
Charlotte
Middle Tenn
Ga Southern
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Anyone think LSU takes the day off?
I like UAB. The one thing that holds me back is historically UAB does not do well in these games vs P5 and SEC, which to me is surprising. The sandwich spot with LSU having eyes on bigger dreams is good for UAB. I actually like this UAB O to move the ball and score today.
JROCK1966
Well-Known Member
UAB 1st Half is my play....LSU won on the road twice already this season and both times started their next home game off like garbage....combined with the sandwich spot, look for LSU to not be awake until 2nd half....currently I'm looking at +380 1st Half ML for the Blazers which I'll take in a heartbeat.
JROCK1966
Well-Known Member
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
I think first half is the way to play that Nebraska game. They've been bad in second half
JROCK1966
Well-Known Member
Huskers have their last game @ Iowa next week ....this is most likely their last chance to get a win this season so that motivation will be enough to get them over the hump.
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Night game in Death Valley though.....
Different years, different teams...but Troy beat them in Death Valley at night. Not scared
JROCK1966
Well-Known Member
Adding Arizona State FG.
JROCK1966
Well-Known Member
Added Houston.....
My weekly donation to my bookie is......a 3, 4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR with:
Georgia State Panthers 1st Half +230
UAB Blazers 1st Half +380
Nebraska Cornhuskers +300
West Virginia Mountaineers +248
Houston Cougars +185
Arizona State Sun Devils +222
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +193
Risked $99 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $21,066.57
BOLTA!
My weekly donation to my bookie is......a 3, 4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR with:
Georgia State Panthers 1st Half +230
UAB Blazers 1st Half +380
Nebraska Cornhuskers +300
West Virginia Mountaineers +248
Houston Cougars +185
Arizona State Sun Devils +222
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +193
Risked $99 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $21,066.57
BOLTA!
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Anyone like Stanford?
I'll just take the +4.5. Better than needing them to win the game
s--k
Eat, Sleep, Breathe Football.
Looks like my targets are Duke, Illinois, Nebraska, Kansas, Wyoming, UAB, Colorado St, Hawaii
Just missed the cut: Ga St, MTSU, FIU, Ark St .... actually, kind of like Ark St
I've only got 1 the last two weeks. 1 is never good enough and it sure as hell won't be today - bring me the upsets!
Just missed the cut: Ga St, MTSU, FIU, Ark St .... actually, kind of like Ark St
I've only got 1 the last two weeks. 1 is never good enough and it sure as hell won't be today - bring me the upsets!
CPA-hole
Gas From Brady Singer, Anyone?
They are beyond awful but it's a rivalry game and the line is only 5?Anyone like Stanford?
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Sorry in advance but damn I think u have a big day today. BOLAdded Houston.....
My weekly donation to my bookie is......a 3, 4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RR with:
Georgia State Panthers 1st Half +230
UAB Blazers 1st Half +380
Nebraska Cornhuskers +300
West Virginia Mountaineers +248
Houston Cougars +185
Arizona State Sun Devils +222
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +193
Risked $99 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $21,066.57
BOLTA!