Bet at Betanysports.eu
Bet on Sports-Join MyBookie.ag today!
Bet at Betanysports.eu

Week 12 DFS/Props Discussion

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
Sticking to the main 3 today.

CHI/DET

CHI DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
DET DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is the slowest of the 3 - O/U is severely low.
Goff? is 6th in terms of ASR (worst) of the 6 teams. Dalton comes in 4th.
Montgomery in 2nd in terms of ALY. Swift is 6th (worst).


All comments are in regards to the 3 game slate.

Montgomery may be the lock of the day. We have a defense (CHI - whom I also like) that has the best ASR/ALY matchup of the day - the lines will be without 2 offensive lineman -, this should give Montgomery more/better opportunities throughout the game, and correlates well together for DFS purposes. He has the best DVOA matchup (by a lot), and any injury concerns were put to rest last week, as he played 95% of snaps. He's back. I don't hate the idea of a pivot off the Allens/Daks and taking a stab with Dalton. He's very affordable and has a plus matchup, I personally think there's to much value spots else where (like the jones/wilsons/etc.) to where it may not make sense, but if mass entering, its a smart positive leverage spot and could maybe get you to afford the diggs/lambs(if he suits up/waller's of the world.

I will add, byrd may be a low % owned played that will havee an increased role if no robinson (likely) AND no goodwin.

Kmet can be a pviot off mooney too. He had a dud last week that people won't forget, yet he still played 90% of snaps.

For the lions purposes, I'm not jumping on Hockenson.... he can prove me wrong, but I've been burned to many times. Bears are stingy vs TE too. Swift can be utilized has a ppr machine if need be/you can fit him. St.Brown/Raymond are the only WR options to briefly think about, but there are some options else where, and we can't play everyone. DET&NOS have the lowest TTotal.

LVR/DAL

LVR DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
DAL DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is the fastest of the 3, O/U is comfortably at the top.
Carr ASR rank is 5th, Daks is 2nd best.
Zekes ALY push is best. Jacobs is 4th.


Raiders may be without a starting guard, and dallas a safety/lamb. (of course cooper too)

This is where the fun begins. Schultz/Waller have the most favorable TE spots, in a game with the fastest pace, and highest O/U.... it's hard not to select one of those two in that position (and maybe flex 1 if you want to be unique......

We have salary savings in plays like Wilson/Edwards.

I don't really want to back Jacobs here, and I know there's uncertainty with Zeke and his knee... but he's the only to look at here I think (or a deep play in Pollard). I don't want to attack Carr, and I don't want to go overboard on his WRs, but I think Waller is a strong option as its the worst fantasy point production position given up by the cowboys --- there was a better way to say that.

BUF/NOS

BUF DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, and bad vs RB D.
NOS DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 2nd, and O/U middle of the two.
Taysom? (have we gotten confirmation here) has the 3rd best ASR matchup. Allen has the best.
Moss? has the 3rd best, tony jones 5th.


No kamara, probably no ingram, opens up the door for tony jones... I think he's a fine value savor, just know most are going here. Also, if taysom is confirmed (let me know please), he can vultures/drags down his TD equity. So there is a reason to fade him. His matchup isn't the best either, and they should be playing from behind (but ppr points are always still fine.)

Saints missing a safety for the 2nd week, a DE for the 2nd week, and another DE for this week. They already have a tough opportunity here, as the bills OL unit is at the top. Giving Allen time is always tough. While the pace is up there, and they have the highest TTotal, its dragged down some becausde the saints run the least plays per second of the 6 teams... so if they find minimal success, it could eat away at allens opportunites, and its why I kind of prefer Dak to Allen here (at a cheaper price point, and in a more favorable spot). Having said that... Allen is viable of course, and has the highest floor/ceiling combo of the day. I just rather attack them by the WRs I think. and stack elsewhere. Saints are 6th worst in fantasy points given up to WRs (across the league), I'm trying to atleast play diggs, and debating 1 of beasley/davis/sanders in lineups.

Tony jones is only saints player I'm considering, unfortunately... but I won't talk you into TDs only Callaway, or another one of the bunch (Smith). Note: Davis did see a step back in snaps with beasley healthier.
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
Fading tony jones, having some pollard, and then the cheapies with diggs were awesome, BUT the Swift/Waller injuries melted my chances at anything, ugh... especially with 4 of the other 5 TEs all scoring very well in the fantasy points category.

Quick summaries to get them down, and hopefully comments tomorrow.

Like always, please let me no any mistakes/injury updates!

Remember its one of the shortest main slates of the year with 2 byes, and 5 "primetime" games. Leaving just a 10 game main slate. The ASR/ALY matchups will be based off the remaining 12 games (so out of 24), and the pace of play is strictly on those 12 as well.

TEN/NEP

TEN DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
NEP DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 11th (out of 12). O/U is the same, 11/12.
Tanny is tied for the worst ASR matchup. Mac has the 8th worst (6th of main slate).
Da. Harris has the 8th best ALY matchup.


Gun to head (as I haven't looked at all injuries/snaps/etc.) this is a game to avoid. I think a patriots back can be in line for a good day, but its getting a bit muddied, and I'd like to see if damien harris loses any work he once had. I do think you can have some tenny WR's for cheap too, as punts... but probably a pass for me now.

PIT/CIN

PIT DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
CIN DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, and meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 10th (/12), O/U is also 10th (/12)
Burrow has the 5th worst ASR matchup (3rd of main slate), Big Ben has the 4th best.
N. Harris has the worst ALY push, Mixon has the 8th worst, 6th of main slate.


Gun to head (as I haven't looked at all injuries/snaps/etc.). I think I will be limiting my exposure here too, but I think one-offing (like najee), or trying a mini team stack (like burrow - chase or higgins) will get you good leverage, and them being successful in this scenario won't be a shocker.

CAR/MIA

CAR DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
MIA DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, and bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 4th, but O/U is lowest.
Tua has the 3rd worst ASR matchup, 2nd of main slate.
Gaskin has the 2nd worst ALY matchup.

Gun to head (as I haven't looked at all injuries/snaps/etc.) the pace and o/u discrepancy seems odd, but both defenses are probably a bit underrated, and the offenses aren't world beaters. I need to go back and check how the pace was from week 11 to 12 (or whatever week cam came in), to see if it got worse/slower (if at all). I do think One-offs are viable here. Waddle is a PPR king for draftkings, if he can just get a TD, he can easily be optimal..... the car WRs will be underowned.

PHI/NYG

PHI DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
NYG DVOA Matchup is good vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 1st. O/U is 9th.
Danny dimes has the 6th best ASR matchup
Sanders is T-1st for best ALY matchup, Barkley is T-9th for worst ALY matchup, T-7th for main slate.


Gun to head (as I haven't looked at all injuries/snaps/etc.), another discrepancy here in pace and o/u. Is it because of the firing of the OC, and it being a divisional game? Idk.... but I want to target this game. I need to look at snaps/etc... but it's hard not to like Sanders, or whomever we can predcit to get the bulk of the carries. I need to check NYG wr's injury report, but I know Toney is out for sure... but this can create some cheap WR opportunities, that are in a better matchup then that Tenny game. I'll probably be on the over too.

NYJ/HOU

NYJ DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
HOU DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 5th, O/U is T-7th.
Wilson? has the T-9th worst ASR matchup, 7th for main slate. Taylor? has the t-10th best, t-9th of main slate.
Burkhead/Da. Johnson? Idk, has the 6th worst ALY matchup, 5th of main slate.


Gun to head (as I haven't looked at all injuries/snaps/etc.), this game looks decent. We already have mostly low priced players, and some injuries to make even cheaper players more valuable (like to carter). I need to check his snap count but I believe elijah moore continually has seen upticks, and they were already trying to get the ball in his hands as early and often as possible, Cooks was (haven't checked recently) been a ppr machine this year, that can present value if not to expensive.... Taylor is a nice low priced dual threat QB, which could provide for a nice floor/ceiling combo in this matchup. I'd rather team/gamestack more houston, with a jet bring back than the other way.

ATL/JAC

ATL DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, bad vs RB D.
JAC DVOA Matchup is great vs P D, good vs RB D.
Pace of play is 2nd. O/U is t-7th.
Lawrence has the 2nd best ASR matchup. Ryan is 3rd.
J-Rob has the T-3rd best ALY matchup, Patterson/Davis? has the 5th worst, 4th of main slate.


Gun to head (as I haven't looked at all injuries/snaps/etc.), ugh..... Seems like every week I either like atlanta a bit, or jags a bit.... and 9/10 times it has failed me. Of course, this week they play eachother with a suppressed~ o/u, yet really good pass matchups/pace/1 bad run matchup, tight spread, etc. I think the move is to spend down at QB on this slate (unless brady?) and pay up else where, and here is one game to do that. Ryan/Lawrence both can be options I don't hate. None of their pass catchers should be to expensive either (minus pitts). I think J-rob does have a nice situation, good run DVOA, great ALY push, competitive game, and shown to be a workhorse... assuming most around his price won't have the same upside this week... but need to circle back on that.

TBB/IND

TBB DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
IND DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
Pace is 9th(/12), O/U is 1st, by a healthy amount.
Brady has the best ASR matchup, Wentz is T-4th best.
Fournette has the T-5th best ALY matchup.


Gun to head (as I haven't looked at all injuries/snaps/etc.) I want to fade this game... but can we? It reminds me a lot of dal/kc last week, where there was a big gap in o/u, and eggs were layed. My head is telling me to be underexposed here and get some leverage by doing so. Having said that, it's important to look at injuries here before my comments can get more or less validation. Taylor is the new mvp (sorry king henry) but he may be going up against the toughest of units, and maybe without nelson? (I know he came out last week), plus he's probably now priced closer to CMC. So a fade can, and maybe should, be considered. I think brady could be used here, especially with some of the cheaper value plays on other games. He's shown to be able to support 2+ big performances from his catching units. So I don't have the idea of Brady - Godwin/Evans + Pittman (something like that).... but I don't want as much exposure, and if I do do it, I'll try to be unique else where. Fournette has a tough matchup, but its a big o/u, he can get it on the ground or in the air, and has a positive ALY push, it could be a good pivot to the pass catching/brady area, and gives you exposure ot the team with the highest team total... so I understand that more.

4pms hopefully later... and tomorrow we can get some more thoughts in on snaps/news/etc.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
i agree to fade the rbs in indy but i want the qbs and pass catchers, i dont think this game anything like dal/kc, i think these offenses will be able to throw on these defenses. pretty sure the over move in this game was sharp, i think im playing wentz over 1.5 tds, brady ov 2.5 tds, and gonna play some pass catchers to score at plus money.
 

ScopeY

Well-Known Member
LAC/DEN

LAC DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
DEN DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is t-6th. O/U t-3rd.
Teddy has the 6th worst ASR matchup, 4th of main slate. Herbert has t-9th best, t-8th of main slate
Ekeler T-3rd best, Gordon? T-5th best.

MIN/SFO

MIN DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, bad vs RB D.
SFO DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 8th. O/U 2nd.
Garop 7th worst ASR matchup, 5th of main slate. Cousins T-5th best.
Mitchell 7th best. Cook T-3rd worst.

LAR/GBP

LAR DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D. Meh vs P D.
GBP DVOA Matchup is meh vs P D, bad vs RB D.
Pace of play is T-6th. O/U T-4th
Stafford has 7th best ASR matchup.
Henderson has T-1st best ALY matchup, Jones? has T-9th worst, T-7th worst in main slate.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
no yardage props for me as of yet:

td scorers:

robinson -105
harris -110
henderson +110
Gordon +130
Evans +105
godwin+105
gronk +170

Wentz ov 1,5 passing tds -105
Brady ov 2.5 +125


figure i can get 2 of 3 the Bucs pass catchers to score! lol,,Taylor too expensive but think he could get a receiving td this week, def think wentz gonna have to throw in this game for colts to score. I like the matchup for both passing games in this one, the way colts play defense i expect brady to pick them apart especially when they down 2 safeties. Bills just sat back with 7 man boxes and let Taylor gash them, i cant see bucs doing something so foolish, Wentz prob make a terrible mistake but i also think he gonna throw at least 2 tds, maybe 3.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
I like

Hurts over 51.5 rush ydg.
Fournette over 49.5 rush ydg
Javonte Williams over 51.5 rush ydg
J. Chase over 68.5 rec ydg

i hate donks split up gordon and williams so evenly, i pretty much take opposing rb yards over against chargers every week, im sure one of these guys will go over, hell they both might, browns had chubb and hunt both go over vs them!!
 

Timh

CTG Psychiatrist - Dr. Tim
i hate donks split up gordon and williams so evenly, i pretty much take opposing rb yards over against chargers every week, im sure one of these guys will go over, hell they both might, browns had chubb and hunt both go over vs them!!
Yes, I agree w you on the split between gordon and Williams not being ideal but in favor is the extreme run funnel defense of the LAC. Williams should be breaking out for a larger share.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
Yes, I agree w you on the split between gordon and Williams not being ideal but in favor is the extreme run funnel defense of the LAC. Williams should be breaking out for a larger share.

i could see him and Gordon both going over their totals, just hope gordon scores :)
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
i ended up using mostly Brady in dfs, few with Wentz and few with Tyrod.. i did several bucs stacks with brady and a mix of evans, godwin, gronk. did a few houston/jets stacks with tyrod, cooks, and either burkhead or jets ty johnson who i really like at the 4200 price. also houston defense.
 

Bet at Betanysports.eu


Top