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Week 12 ~ 2021

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
NFL

LAST - [3-0 +12.17u]
WEEK - [13-8 +20.98]
2021 - [108-93 +17.35u]

THURSDAY:
  • 5/4.35 Lions +3 -115
  • 5/4.76 Raiders / Cowboys UNDER 51½ -105
  • 5/4.76 SAINTS+6½ -105
  • 5/4.81 SAINTS / BILLS OVER 45 -104
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randoms...
  • “Take the Lions on Thanksgiving Day” is so old, it may be new again. Their prior meeting with Chicago was Week 4, the NFL debut of Bears’ QB Justin Fields. Chicago scored TDs on their first two possessions. The second followed an 11-play, 63-yard, 6:05 Lions offensive drive that ended in a lost fumble. Detroit’s second offensive drive went 70 yards in 10 plays in 5:10, ending on a failed 4th-and-goal pass from the Bear 5. The next Detroit offensive drive went 10 plays, in 5:01, ended in a lost fumble on the CHI 5. Doh! They were obviously gobbling up yardage against a better version of the Chicago defense, which is now missing star LB Khalil Mack, and probably DT Akiem Hicks. The Bears concluded their loss to Baltimore on Sunday with Andy Dalton playing QB in place of the injured Fields, in a game where WR Allen Robinson was already out inj. Since their bye, the Lions have played two very competitive road games vs reasonably talented and well-coached AFC North stalwarts, the Steelers and Browns. They come home and face 3-7 Matt Nagy preparing “his offense” off a short week, shortly after their head coach Dan Campbell issued this quote: “We’re trying to win games 14-13 or 16-13.” DETROIT, 24-13 as I see Goff finally having a good game without turning the ball over.
  • The 'boys are 2-10 ATS in L12 turkey day games. But for this, they draw the Raiders who, following a brief, little 2-0 SU and ATS bump-up in the post-Gruden games, have let go of the rope in home losses by 19 and 27 points which followed a 7-point road loss as fav at the lousy Giants. Strangely, these three stinkers came after a bye, at which point they were 5-2. They lost WR Henry Ruggs during Giants Week, and things promptly went sideways. Coincidence, or cause-and-effect? Their 5-5 record doesn’t eliminate them from being in the Wild Card chase with seven play, but something needs to change. OAK hits Dallas off a short week, but perhaps catch the the boys at the best possible time as both C.D. Lamb and Amari Cooper are injured. There are quarterbacks who miss a couple of leading receivers and their teams respond well, like Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Then you have Dak Prescott and the Cowboys, for whom a little adversity can go a long way… for the other side. DAL likely hangs on in a close one...24-20. May still take LV but for now I'm just backing the under.

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C-MAN

Well-Known Member
Great write ups. Yeah, those turnovers were brutal for Det in the first meeting. I’m looking at the over there despite Campbell’s quote. I think that’s a good mentality when you’re playing on the road as a big underdog, but at home in a close match up I think they get a little more aggressive. Early fireworks on Thanksgiving. GL today.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
NFL

LAST - [1-3 -10.65u]
2021 - [109-96 +6.7u]

SUNDAY:
  • 3/2.86 Patriots -7 -105
  • 3/1.02 Patriots -295
  • 4/3.81 Titans / Patriots UNDER 43½ -105
  • 4.60/4 Titans Team Total UNDER 17 -115
  • 6/3.16 Eagles -190
  • 4/4.00 Colts +3 +100
  • 4/3.81 BUCCANEERS / COLTS OVER 53 -105
  • 4/3.85 JAGUARS +2 -104
  • 4/3.92 PANTHERS -2½ -102
  • 4/3.81 PANTHERS / DOLPHINS UNDER 42 -105
  • 5/4.81 STEELERS +3½ -104
  • 5/5.00 BRONCOS +2½ +100
  • 4.95/5 49ERS -3½ +101
  • 5/4.76 Rams -2 -105
  • 4/3.81 Rams / Packers UNDER 47 -105
  • 5/5.25 Ravens -3½ +105
  • 4/3.81 Browns / Ravens UNDER 47 -105
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randoms...

Jags +2 ...Wrong team favored here imo. JAX has a decent run game while ATL struggles vs run. Most everything else a wash. I do favor 1st year coach Arthur Smith over Urban, but I don't think Matty Ice's skill set fits well with Smith's play-calling style. I keep expecting Lawrence to have a breakout game and the potential is here, but more likely the Jags run for 200 yards, control the clock and manage a SU win like 23-17 or so. Atlanta in the last 2 games has been outscored 68-3 and has more turnovers than points 7-3.​
Colts +3 ...Indy one of the hotter teams right now winning 5 of L6 (4-2 ATS) and bringing in the best RB in the league with Henry on the shelf. Taylor may even be the most significant offensive weapon currently. He may have some trouble vs the stout TB front 7 but the run threat should allow solid game manager Wentz plenty opportunities to exploit less than stellar TB secondary. Wentz actually has best numbers in the league at protecting the ball and this bode well in not allowing Brady short field opportunities. Although very average overall, the Colt D has showed significant improvement the last couple weeks as they become healthier.​
Pats -7 ...This may seem like a tall number, but with TEN decimated by injuries and Belichick having a few extra days to game plan... I can see this Pat D shutting down the Titan offense, potentially to single digits! NE ranks 3rd in overall D and takeaways, while TEN offense is 27th in protecting the ball. NE is also #1 in scoring defense allowing only 16 ppg. Liking the under as well, since I really can't see the Titans doing their part of this projected total. This may be the most important game of the day if not the most exciting.​
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
adds
  • 3/2.75 1H PATRIOTS u21 -109
  • 3/2.70 1H JAGUARS PK -111
  • 3/2.44 1H STEELERS +3 -123
  • 3/2.65 1H PANTHERS -113
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
NFL

LAST - [9-15 -25.73u]
2021 - [118-111 -18.97u]

MONDAY:
  • 5/4.81 1H WASHINGTON / SEAHAWKS under 23 -104
  • 5/4.59 SEAHAWKS -1 -109
 

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