UFC Vegas 69

[mrpickem]

Weak card but still money to be made potentially. I typically do better on the weaker cards FWIW



Hasn't been a good starts with 2 crap week in a row, no where to go but up!

 

[mrpickem]

Prelims

• 5/1.63 CLAYTON CARPENTER -306
• 3/2.10 CARPENTER vs RONDEROS u2½ -143
• 1.67/5 AJ Fletcher by Submission +300
• 2.11/1 PHILIPE LINS -211
• 1.46/3 Khusein Askhabov Inside Distance +205
• 1.40/7 Khusein Askhabov in Round 1 +500
• 2.08/3 BUENO SILVA vs LANSBERG 2½ +144
• 1.82/2 MAYRA BUENO SILVA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +110

JUANCAMILO RONDEROS VS CLAYTON CARPENTER(6-0)

• Colombian Ronderos lost via an early submission against the vastly experienced David Dvorak. However that was 2 years ago, and on short notice, he will be an unknown entity after all this time away, plus he will be at a physical disadvantage with Carpenter. Clayton's well-rounded grappling likely sees him taking the fight to the ground early and keeping it there with ease. Carpenter

AJ FLETCHER(9-2) VS THEMBA GORIMBO(10-3)

• Fletcher is explosive but his short stature forces him to eat damage in order to close the distance. Gorimbo will enjoy a 9″ reach advantage over his late-notice opponent. The Zimbabwe native is surprisingly heavy-handed, but still unlikely to handle Fletcher’s heavy wrestling pressure. Fletcher sub

OVINCE ST. PREUX VS PHILIPE LINS

• 39-year-old OSP vs 37-year-old Lins with likely prove nothing special. Lins has fallen back to his wrestling base lately and that should prove enough vs a depleted OSP who does still have exceptional power early, but unlikely Lins falls into it. Lins Decision

JAMALL EMMERS VS KHUSEIN ASKHABOV(23-0)

• Askhabov debuts after fighting around the Eastern European regional scene, and gaining a ton of experience against a varying quality of opposition. A slick outside striker, Askhabov also appears well-versed on the mat if Emmers opts to panic wrestle. This one likely doesn't get out of the 1st. Askhabov KO

LINA LANSBERG VS MAYRA BUENO SILVA(9-2-1)

• Lansberg dropped a debatable major decision to Karol Rosa last time out, but the 40-year-old cannot maintain the same pace that drove her success in the 2010s. Silva once again got a sub vs Stephanie Eggar with a Rnd1 armbar. The physical edge should prove too great a hurdle for the gutsy Swede. Silva ITD

​

 

[mrpickem]

 

[mrpickem]

one more prelim...

[4-2 +6.87u]

• 3/1.27 NAZIM SADYKHOV -236
• Plus 2 other plays still pending on ladies fight next

 

[mrpickem]

UFC Vegas 69: Main Card​

[7-2 +13.14u]

• 3/1.45 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ -207
• 3/1.20 JAMAL POGUES -250
• 3/2.34 William Knight -128

JIM MILLER VS ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ

• Hernandez can be a lethal early-round dual-threat on the feet and mat but his weak gas tank and questionable fight IQ seem to have relegated him to a gatekeeper. He will be the fresher, deadlier early-round threat than this twilight version of Miller and both fighters will be running on fumes by the mid-point. Hernandez

WILLIAM KNIGHT(11-4) VS MARCIN PRACHNIO

• Knight is a ripped specimen, but his power often misses the mark due to his poor hand speed. Prachnio loves body kicks but lacks the defensive footwork required when dealing with heavy-handed pressure sluggers at 205 and above. Knight

JOSH PARISIAN VS JAMAL POGUES

• Terrible game-planning has plagued Parisian's career – still wondering why he took so long getting Baudot to the mat. Jamal Pogues gets his call-up off a 2nd DWCS decision win over Paulo Renato, and he is a solid wrestler...that will ultimately have a limited ceiling at HW. Pogues

​

 

[mrpickem]

Co-Main​

[7-4 +11.59u]

• 4/2.50 ZAC PAUGA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -160
• Also HW fight still pending

ZAC PAUGA(12-4) VS JORDAN WRIGHT

• The "Beverly Hills Ninja" WILL either finds the kill switch early or mentally break down. Wright looks slick when allowed to set pace off his front foot, but under meaningful pressure, he generally contorts into a defensive mess. Zac Pauga is undersized at HW but LHW isn’t a steep technical gap to climb and will keep him away from the heavier hitters. Pauga TKO

 

[mrpickem]

UFC Vegas 69​

Main Event​

[8-5 +8.79u]

• 3/3.15 ERIN BLANCHFIELD +105
• 2.22/2 BLANCHFIELD vs ANDRADE) o2½ -111

JESSICA ANDRADE VS ERIN BLANCHFIELD(10-1)

• Andrade rides a 3-0 streak after a dominant decision win over Lauren Murphy barely a month ago. She may lack polished defense but lately has avoided the more punishing incoming damage. Whether she handles the stellar wrestling of Blanchfield is the question. Erin appears the company's preferred future title holder after her destruction of the flawed yet popular Molly McCann. Andrade won't be the ideal match-up however as only Shevchenko has enjoyed great success on the mat w/Jessica in recent years. More importantly, will how Blanchfield copes with Andrade’s abnormal power in a traditionally light-hitting division. Tossup but Ima ride the dog!

​

 

[mrpickem]

Oh well, a little too fast, but still a good night in the books!

[9-6 +9.72u]​

The finish

 

[mrpickem]

Actually, I went 10-5 but the units were correct.

UFC Vegas 69
5/1.63 CLAYTON CARPENTER -306
3/2.10 CLAYTON CARPENTER vs JUANCAMILO RONDEROS u2½ -143
1.67/5 AJ Fletcher by Submission +300
2.11/1 PHILIPE LINS -211
1.46/3 Khusein Askhabov Inside Distance +205
1.40/7 Khusein Askhabov in Round 1 +500
2.08/3 MAYRA BUENO SILVA vs LINA LANSBERG 2½ +144
1.82/2 MAYRA BUENO SILVA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +110
3/1.27 NAZIM SADYKHOV -236
3/1.45 ALEXANDER HERNANDEZ -207
3/2.34 William Knight -128
3/1.20 JAMAL POGUES -250
4/2.50 ZAC PAUGA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -160
3/3.15 ERIN BLANCHFIELD +105
2.22/2 BLANCHFIELD vs ANDRADE) o2½ -111
[10-5 +9.72u]

Still a ways to go but that was a positive night.