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UFC 269 Picks


Well-Known Member
2021 record
55-41-1 +2.88 un

Given back several units the last few cards, hopefully try to rebound a bit today.

Plays I'm considering: Costa, Muniz, Munhoz, Paiva, and Neal.

General thoughts about each fight:

Robertson line is too wide for a fighter who mostly has one path which is a takedown and sub. Cachoeira did miss weight.

Costa has a striking, power, and reach adv. Has to avoid gassing here late. The line seems well set, I might take a small stab though as I think Costa gets the KO.

We know what Hall is at this point, he's gonna use those funky take downs and try to sub you. Topuria showed how to beat hall in his last fight but I'm not sure Minner can stick to a similar gameplan. Minner has been subbed out way too many times to feel comfortable going with him, yet laying 2-1 with Hall when he's likely on his back for portions of this fight doesn't feel safe if this did happen to go the distance. Doubt it does, questionable gas tanks for both guys. Think Hall does get it done. Maybe if this line drops i take a small stab.

Blanchfield still a little raw. She will be looking to get this to the ground. Maverick has the adv on the feet, stronger fighter. Can she get up if she's taken down though? Staying away from this one.

There's some recency bias in this Muniz-Anders line after we saw Muniz get an impressive sub over Souza. Anders hasn't ever been submitted (though neither had Souza). The issue here is Muniz gas tank if he doesn't get the early sub. I'm admittedly gunshy on these guys with questionable gas tanks after what happened last week in the guida fight. You see how guys just lose all their edge when they get tired, tho there's a difference between emptying a tank to try and get a finish vs just tiring out over the course of 3 rounds. I think Muniz does find a way to sub out Anders, I'm debating this line though.

Bruno Silva prob gets a KO but I wouldn't lay 3.5-1 here at all. Silva doesn't have a ground game if Wright decides to go that way. Wright could potentially steal this if he avoids the KO as Silva could gas.

We all hope to see Tuivasa drink from the shoe again, I don't typically like to get involved in coinflip heavyweight fights. Sakai more well rounded, better tank. Durability questions though. Tuivasa prob has better power though he's more likely to fade late. Seems like a good one to avoid.

Munhoz-Cruz is giving me the most trouble as to whether to pull the trigger. Cruz will seek to use footwork and move around the larger octagon and pick his spots. Munhoz will try to use some legkicks. Munhoz is the smaller fighter, he may have trouble finding his range. Cruz can wrestle a bit here too. I dont think Cruz offers much in the way of power, his path is a volume based decision. Munhoz more likely to win by finish, esp with Cruz having questionable durability. I probably end up staying away, lean Munhoz.

This Emmett-Ige fight hinges on how Emmett has recovered from his knee injury. Emmett should otherwise be a bigger favorite as he is the better fighter. The knee is a legit worry given Emmets age (36). This should be a war, potential FOTN. Ige should bring volume, Emmett has solid power. Emmett is probably worth a bet at these odds if the knee and age doesn't bother you.
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Well-Known Member
Typing out your thoughts can really give you better perspective as to how confident you are. i'm kinda talking myself out of a lot of plays lol. Think this may end up being a better card to watch than bet. Small bets if anything.

Main Card

The Omalley hype train keeps going and the betting line reflects that. Would expect Omalley to come out strong though Paiva is quite durable and we saw Omalley have trouble finishing in his last fight. Paiva should mix in some leg kicks here, I think Paiva is live if he can survive the first round. Great odds IMO for taking a shot on Paiva.

My initial lean was Kara-France at the dog odds as he will probably seek to get some takedowns and Garbrandt does have chin issues. Though does Kara-france have the ability to get the finish on the feet? i worry about the size/strength difference here, Kara-France seems undersized and Garbrandt as we know moved down to this division from bantamweight. I'm ultimately going to stay away.

Pkem fight between Neal and Ponzinibbio. Neal has the recent DUI arrest going on if thats something you factor into your plays. Ponzinibbio has durability issues, Neal has length which might lead to a striking adv both with kicks and punches. Ponzi has an adv on the mat if it goes there. Leaning neal here, I may jump on this one.

Really not much to discuss with Nunes-Pena. I'll never lay massive odds like this. Someday Nunes will get old and get beaten but I doubt thats today. Likely Nunes gets the 1st round finish.

Oliveira at plus odds is interesting. He will have an edge on the ground and with the wrestling esp early. Poirier has an edge in striking. If this somehow goes the distance I think Poirier wins based on that striking if he doesnt end up finishing late. This is a tough call, you can talk yourself into either side of this one. The plus odds are probably what swings me to Oliveira though if I had to make a play. Should be fascinating to watch this one play out.

GL to everyone with their plays. I'll post mine here in a bit, whatever I end up doing lol.

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