YES only race 2 off today and no rain in the forecastLefty do you know for certain r10 will be on the turf? Never really sure if they state it before racing starts or if it's more wait and see. Concern is if there's any question it seems like the final race is the quickest to go.
Sorry to correct you but the first bet is race 2.‘Toga Day 13:
best bets: 12-6-1-1
best bet winning prices:
1-America’s Guest $60W
$20 exacta: 1/4,6,7,8
$10 exacta: 4,6,7,8/1
$10 exacta box: 1-7-8
$3 triple: 1,8/1,4,6,7,8/1,4,5,6,7,8,10
5-Blissful $200W **best bet**
$40 exacta: 5/3,6
$20 exacta: 5/1
$20 exacta: 3,6/5
$10 triple: 5/3,6/1,2,3,6,9
$5 triple: 3,6/5/1,2,3,6,9
$4 triple: 1,5/1,5/2,3,6,9
$20 exacta: 5/1,10,12
$10 exacta: 1,10,12/5
$4 triple: 1,5/1,5,10,12/1,3,5,7,10,12
let’s have ourselves a day…
really great analysis from youLefty, in Race 6, what goes into your evaluation of first time starters? When I use Brisnet I look at a few things:
1) Sire, Dam Sire and Trainer 1st time win percentages: when those 3 numbers total over 40 I'm very interested, between 30-40 I'm somewhat interested
2) On turf, a similar calc with Turf %s for the sire & dam sire plus the trainer's debut turf percentage. Again over 40 is strong, 30-40 is OK.
3) A bullet work listed: 4 furlongs is good, 5 furlongs is great
4) For sprints I look for the most recent gate drill: sub 12 seconds per furlong is strong, 12-12.25 seconds per furlongs is OK
This being a route race on turf, the workout speeds are probably not all that important.
Naturally in a maiden race like the 6th, I need to look at how the horses that have run previously performed. Usually they need to have an effort within a few points of the race par to have me interested, unless they have a noteworthy trainer and an excuse in the last race.
So based on my criteria I can see why the 1 & 4 are out of your top 2, and I agree the 3,5,6 & 7 are all reasonable contenders. But what puts the #6 on top? Is it the higher morning line price?