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Paintcrew Season Long Plays & Occasional Analysis

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
how do you view the purdue/wisconsin game this week ?

gotta say I watched illini/purdue and beliema lined up jumbo and they ran the ball well on purdue. probably should of won game. Wisconsin always seems to dominate purdue on the run game. Now it's not a traditional wisky run game and purdue D looks better, but minnesota and illinois got 4 a carry.

I'm leaning wisconsin here; offensively for purdue I don't have much insight in the matchup, wisconsin d is better vs the run but think they should play good as well vs purdue.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
how do you view the purdue/wisconsin game this week ?

gotta say I watched illini/purdue and beliema lined up jumbo and they ran the ball well on purdue. probably should of won game. Wisconsin always seems to dominate purdue on the run game. Now it's not a traditional wisky run game and purdue D looks better, but minnesota and illinois got 4 a carry.

I'm leaning wisconsin here; offensively for purdue I don't have much insight in the matchup, wisconsin d is better vs the run but think they should play good as well vs purdue.

Man, you gotta have big balls or be a little crazy to lay points with wiscy. I’d think it a terrible spot for Purdue off the big upset but to me If I lean wiscy then it just a pass as long as Mertz is their qb. Kid is freaking awful!
 

EL CAPO

Well-Known Member
Man, you gotta have big balls or be a little crazy to lay points with wiscy. I’d think it a terrible spot for Purdue off the big upset but to me If I lean wiscy then it just a pass as long as Mertz is their qb. Kid is freaking awful!
oh for sure. at this point everyone has flaws, don't get me wrong I don't love it, but card doesn't look great as a whole. If you look at wisky and purdue last 5 years, wisky dominates. And purdue usually plays iowa well.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
how do you view the purdue/wisconsin game this week ?

gotta say I watched illini/purdue and beliema lined up jumbo and they ran the ball well on purdue. probably should of won game. Wisconsin always seems to dominate purdue on the run game. Now it's not a traditional wisky run game and purdue D looks better, but minnesota and illinois got 4 a carry.

I'm leaning wisconsin here; offensively for purdue I don't have much insight in the matchup, wisconsin d is better vs the run but think they should play good as well vs purdue.
look ahead summary:
  • Purdue hasn't beat Wisky since the stone age
  • Typically due to the LOS and the Wisky run game (and a joke of a Purdue d'line and more importantly joke of a def scheme)
  • I think there could be reasons to believe things could be different
  • I’m not touching it either way. If I didn’t know the history I’d be hammering Purdue but no way in hell I’m trusting Purdue to get over the Wisconsin hump until they finally do
I won’t persuade you other wise but keep in mind Branson Deen missed the entire second half against Illinois when the d line wore down a bit and played sparingly against Minny in the monsoon.

The D line in general should be in a much better place health wise than those 2 efforts .

That doesn’t mean Wisky won’t do Wisky type things to Purdue again but at a minimum Purdue has a wildly better shot to hold their own in the trenches and make Mertz beat them than any matchup in the last decade against the badgers
 
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s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I was thinking about this matchup today and wondered if Leonard would devise a better defense to take away Bell or try to limit his impact. Because Iowa just does what they do, I wouldn't expect them to give extra focus on one player and they didn't. Wisconsin I thought might and force other Purdue WRs to beat them. But looking back at say, the Wake Forest bowl game, except for all the INTs that Hartman threw, several right to Badger defenders, beyond that, the WF WRs went wild. 8-131-3TD, 6-122, 5-91 were the stat lines of the top 3 receivers. Bowl games are different. Wisconsin usually does well vs B1G offenses. They did let some Penn St receivers get behind coverage week 1 in the 2nd H. The Gopher WRs of the last couple years came to mind, but none of them have had much of an impact in the Axe game.

Bell caught 12-108-TD in 2019 vs Wisconsin, Hopkins caught 8-127-2TD. Moore DNP. In 2018 Moore caught 9-114-2TD Two other receivers in 2018 caught for 70+ and 90+ yards.

So I'm not so sure Wisconsin's style has shown they look to take away or give special treatment to the opponent's best receivers.

Purdue's O vs Wisconsin D probably comes down to if OConnell makes the right decisions and takes care of the ball. Can he do that in back-to-back games vs a top flight D? He has played Wisconsin in 2019 when he was the primary QB to end the season.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
I was thinking about this matchup today and wondered if Leonard would devise a better defense to take away Bell or try to limit his impact. Because Iowa just does what they do, I wouldn't expect them to give extra focus on one player and they didn't. Wisconsin I thought might and force other Purdue WRs to beat them. But looking back at say, the Wake Forest bowl game, except for all the INTs that Hartman threw, several right to Badger defenders, beyond that, the WF WRs went wild. 8-131-3TD, 6-122, 5-91 were the stat lines of the top 3 receivers. Bowl games are different. Wisconsin usually does well vs B1G offenses. They did let some Penn St receivers get behind coverage week 1 in the 2nd H. The Gopher WRs of the last couple years came to mind, but none of them have had much of an impact in the Axe game.

Bell caught 12-108-TD in 2019 vs Wisconsin, Hopkins caught 8-127-2TD. Moore DNP. In 2018 Moore caught 9-114-2TD Two other receivers in 2018 caught for 70+ and 90+ yards.

So I'm not so sure Wisconsin's style has shown they look to take away or give special treatment to the opponent's best receivers.

Purdue's O vs Wisconsin D probably comes down to if OConnell makes the right decisions and takes care of the ball. Can he do that in back-to-back games vs a top flight D? He has played Wisconsin in 2019 when he was the primary QB to end the season.
It's like you wrote it for me on the Purdue O vs Wisky D side of things. Spot on my thoughts in general.

Moral of the story for me is if Purdue's O'line can protect O'Connell at least comparable to last week (maybe a big if) then Purdue gets into the 20's IMO. Brohm's offenses haven't really been stifled by Wisky like the Purdue teams of the past and like @s--k said O'Connell has faced Wisky before and held his own pretty well with a make shift O'Line and less talent on the outside (same Bell obviously but he was just a freshman).

Just a thought but I think if I were you @EL CAPO and rolled with the historical truth that Wisky's O will wear down Purdue I'd look towards the TT over. I think Purdue can do enough here to get to 20 and if they don't it's likely due to INTs/turnovers causing short fields and easy points for Wisky so I'd think you get home in that case as well.

For myself the only thing I "might" do is look a bit closer at the full game over hovering around 40. Last 2 outcomes of these squads in 2018 and 2019 were 66 and 91 points respectively.
 
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s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Just that this time it's hard to trust Wisconsin O. Even look at the Illinois game...491 yards and just 24 points. Maybe they can't be that bad again?
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Just that this time it's hard to trust Wisconsin O. Even look at the Illinois game...491 yards and just 24 points. Maybe they can't be that bad again?
Yeah I guess when you go back and simply look at scores they've topped that 24 points just once against EMU.

Other totals 10, 13, 17, 20
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
I could be living in the past on this one admittedly. A nightmare past of watching RBs like Jonathan Taylor go 7 yards without getting touched about 20 times a game.

I bump up Purdue's power #'s each week based on the ever improving D but I'll still believe it when I see it against these guys.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
oh for sure. at this point everyone has flaws, don't get me wrong I don't love it, but card doesn't look great as a whole. If you look at wisky and purdue last 5 years, wisky dominates. And purdue usually plays iowa well.

PC would def have way more incite into the H2H between these 2 than me, personally i like it when a team has been dominated by the other in recent years and the tables potentially turned this season,, i been fading boise this season playing on the MW teams they have dominated the last decade plus, somewhat similar fading clemson quite a bit with acc teams they have been destroying for years,, when these teams who been owed for so long come into a season with the typically dominate team all a sudden being equal or lessor than i think it a great motivating factor to put even more effort than typical!!!!! that said i do think the spot sucks coming off the iowa upset, but again ill defer to paint crew on his thoughts bout where the team is mentally.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
YTD 29-24 +4.2

Week 8
UCLA -1
Texas A&M -19.5
Iowa St -7

That's what i got so far....probably a few others but don't love a lot this week

Obviously a big one for my boys in WL. Last win against Wisky Clinton was still getting blowjobs in the Oval Office....it's been a while.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
YTD 29-24 +4.2

Week 8
UCLA -1
Texas A&M -19.5
Iowa St -7

That's what i got so far....probably a few others but don't love a lot this week

Obviously a big one for my boys in WL. Last win against Wisky Clinton was still getting blowjobs in the Oval Office....it's been a while.

damn, poor guy probably needs a pill to get it up these days, probably always did when it came to fucking his wife!!
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Last adds more than likely
Northwestern +23.5
Pitt -3
Indiana +21

And add another unit on both now 2*
Iowa St -7
Tex A&M -19.5

Dumb small RR ML parlay on Purdue +145, GTech +200, and Oregon St +135
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Yuck . Happy I avoided Purdue at least but painful to watch version 15 of those assholes owning us. Credit those LBs hitting O’Connell early and I think really had him guessing with their mix of pressure along with dropping 8. Forced a ton of awful mis reads.

The Indiana play feels like the worst read of the year by yours truly. Out smarted myself there.

2-4 on the week -2.5

YTD 31-28 +1.7
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
YTD 32-28 +4.7

Wisky -13
Liberty +9
Memphis +5
Navy +21
Maryland +10
Washington +7


Dumb RR ML parlay nonsense
Purdue +130
Memphis +170
Washington +220
 
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PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
YTD 34-33 +1.4

Been pushing money back and forth all season I guess. 2-5 ATS last week and easily could've been 5-2. Them the breaks. Likely will have a few more but most of my attention has shifted over to hoops.

2* Purdue TT O20.5 - Been looking at this one obviously all week and settled on attacking it this way. I lean over for the game, OSU TT Over slightly less, and Purdue +21 as well but I think there's a lot more variance total wise for OSU IMO so I'm just taking it out of the picture.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
YTD 34-33 +1.4

Been pushing money back and forth all season I guess. 2-5 ATS last week and easily could've been 5-2. Them the breaks. Likely will have a few more but most of my attention has shifted over to hoops.

2* Purdue TT O20.5 - Been looking at this one obviously all week and settled on attacking it this way. I lean over for the game, OSU TT Over slightly less, and Purdue +21 as well but I think there's a lot more variance total wise for OSU IMO so I'm just taking it out of the picture.
Good luck, should be a fun game.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
One more
2* Oklahoma -4 - think their healthy defense makes this sooner team a good bit higher than power ratings suggest
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I don't think I will have anyone in the OU-Baylor game. But I will leave this here to bolster your OU play. QB Gary Bohanon has thrown just 5 INTs all year, but they have all come in the last 3 games. Baylor was able to win 2 of those 3 games (just a 4-5 TD-INT ratio in those 3). Concerning for Baylor that they come in here with their QB not playing his best ball right now. Will be interesting to see how Baylor gameplans for OU and how Williams does.
 

booksbestfriend

On Johnny's Shitlist
I don't think I will have anyone in the OU-Baylor game. But I will leave this here to bolster your OU play. QB Gary Bohanon has thrown just 5 INTs all year, but they have all come in the last 3 games. Baylor was able to win 2 of those 3 games (just a 4-5 TD-INT ratio in those 3). Concerning for Baylor that they come in here with their QB not playing his best ball right now. Will be interesting to see how Baylor gameplans for OU and how Williams does.
Makes you wonder if they are tipping their plays, much like a pitcher or poker player has tells.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
So much for a light day…feel good and I just can’t talk myself out of this one

1* Tenn +20

Enjoy the day y’all
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Makes you wonder if they are tipping their plays, much like a pitcher or poker player has tells.

Could be something and OU with the extra week could help them further pick up on things if there is something to it.

A lot of what I post I read or hear elsewhere. Was maybe a Baylor reporter guest on a Big Xll XM radio spot or something. But they were talking about some other throws he's missed that doesn't show up in the box score.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
OSU -19
Wisky -10
Michigan -15

Taking it easy today. Don’t like too much and have a focus on hoops action.

GL
 

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