Damn near tempted to take another nibble on Burns. Can still get him in the mid-upper 30's after an elite ball striking day. He typically backs that type of thing up and if the putts start to fall.....
PaintCrew 2022 Golf
- Thread starter PaintCrew
- Start date
Inspekdah
My man, Novak Djokovic!
Boom!!!
Thanks all much love. This one was pretty sweet to get today right before the Vegas trip!
I might have to start putting disclaimers about being a Cam Smith homer to avoid children just like I’ll always do now in the hoops forums with Purdue
2 winners with Cam this year…I can safely say I’ve never hit the same dude winning twice in a season. Me and the Aussie Mullet are now brothers forever
Players: +15.5
YTD: +45.33
I might have to start putting disclaimers about being a Cam Smith homer to avoid children just like I’ll always do now in the hoops forums with Purdue
2 winners with Cam this year…I can safely say I’ve never hit the same dude winning twice in a season. Me and the Aussie Mullet are now brothers forever
Players: +15.5
YTD: +45.33
Best part is I love him the most at Augusta….very possible he brings that one home too IMO but I’m getting a little greedy
Yessir. He was already on my list for Augusta. Scott Leishman & Cam always play well at National.
Nice hit this weekend
DaddyMcIlhon
Well-Known Member
Nice hit on Cam. I honestly overlooked him and I’m not sure why. I’m gonna treat lightly this week but I did place a bet on Tommy. I know he never wins, but 50-1 seems like a good number for a guy who played pretty damn well last week. GL this week.
Valspar - Burns of course gets it done. Was tempted to just go 1 and done with him but hard to at that price. Fitzy at least got within striking distance on the back 9
-1.50
YTD: +43.83
WGC Match Play
0.5 X 28-1
0.5 Lowry 33-1
0.25 Harman 50-1
0.25 Kiz 50-1
Love this event. I might have some matchups as well
-1.50
YTD: +43.83
WGC Match Play
0.5 X 28-1
0.5 Lowry 33-1
0.25 Harman 50-1
0.25 Kiz 50-1
Love this event. I might have some matchups as well
Also while i feel terrible for Riley i'm quietly happy he didn't get it done. I've declared to the world I"ll be on him the first time he wins (he will win quite a few longterm IMO ) and I would've been crushed If I wasn't riding with him for that first W (i've cashed with him twice in Korn Ferry - Credit to Josh Perry a few years back for the tip and have followed his career pretty close after that)
Worth a stab as a dog with a grinder anyway IMO
Carolina Guy
Well-Known Member
I have Gooch in my one and done league this week for the reason stated above. This is always a tough tournament to predict, but a fun one to get involved in! Love the format and this golf course. Never move it!!
Ryno14
Well-Known Member
Glad to see you on Kis and Harman. Was leaning those myself
Push…these guys were both awful today
R2 Match Play
All 0.5*
Poulter +134
Si Woo +109
Mitchell -110
Gooch -170 (I still can't believe how awful Bland was yesterday. Don't love the juice but hard to see a major recovery)
Kiz -142 (Dude is just an autobet in this setup until proven otherwise and List didn't show all that much yesterday....more so that JT lost it)
All 0.5*
Poulter +134
Si Woo +109
Mitchell -110
Gooch -170 (I still can't believe how awful Bland was yesterday. Don't love the juice but hard to see a major recovery)
Kiz -142 (Dude is just an autobet in this setup until proven otherwise and List didn't show all that much yesterday....more so that JT lost it)
Just gonna tail these blind and continue Masters prep.
CPA-hole
Assesses Shot Selection for Tom Izzo
He putted pretty well at the match play. Valero seems Iike a bomb and gauge course for him. I like it.
RBTrojan
Well-Known Member
He just doesn’t look right to me physically. Perhaps it’s just a situation where he needs reps to get back into golf shape? I’m wondering if swinging so hard is actually starting to create long term damage. I’m not going to fade him this week, but if he looks similar this week as he did last week, I’ll definitely be looking to fade him at Augusta.
Sorry @Ryno14 for delay. I took brief looks but am just going to save the darts for next week
Yeah no doubt I already feel a little dumb doing it and it's going to come down to the same 2 things per normal for Beefcake (distance control on irons & putting). Obviously he's never putted well at Augusta and I've seen enough with his swings the past few rounds that he'll be able to give it a go and I've created my own narrative in my head that a little fresh start could do him really nicely at Augusta coming in without really any form at all.
I'd have to go back through but the time's he's popped and won he's typically been off the radar a bit. I'm also a stubborn SOB and while the "Augusta is in his head" narrative could well be true I'm not sure 2 events in a 6 month span (played in wildly different conditions) is enough to prove that out. I'm going back to the well simply for the upside at a price in the 20's that will either look really silly one way or another. Honestly not sure Bryson even out of form should be near 30-1 in any event even as a headcase and off an injury.
Alright here's where I'm at on the masters....couple face palms at this point
Full disclaimer while the world advertises this is the easiest tourney to cap I've hit exactly 1 masters outright (but it was a one shot one kill with Tiger in 2019 and I'll never forget it). I think most of that is due to variance and the rest is me being stubborn as hell and in a couple cases a fanboy. Don't care either way as it's just golf heaven and i'll love it all regardless
Futures played before this week
Masters
1* Beefcake +2500 - What in god's name was i doing. Can't believe I couldn't read the room that this number was going to sky rocket this week. That being said I'm a stubborn SOB and I'm adding more
0.5* Smith +3600 - Hey I did something right?!
0.5* Day +6600 - Hard to win if you aren't qualified....yuck. Took a swing with his early form this year to be holding a magical 66-1 ticket when he would've been like 24-1 but missed
0.25* Molinari +12500 - Frankie and me don't get along very well but I love losing $ on him
Adds earlier this week
0.125* Woods +5000 - This is stupid and I don't care. If there is a remote hope that this man is in contention on the weekend. I simply can't handle not having a piece.
0.125* Kiz +15000 - More fanboy....obviously too short for this beautiful course and the rain Thursday sure won't help but I've always believed he will contend once here and this is close to the last shot at it IMO. Putts will have to be rolling in from everywhere but if he gets it going why not?
More to come
Full disclaimer while the world advertises this is the easiest tourney to cap I've hit exactly 1 masters outright (but it was a one shot one kill with Tiger in 2019 and I'll never forget it). I think most of that is due to variance and the rest is me being stubborn as hell and in a couple cases a fanboy. Don't care either way as it's just golf heaven and i'll love it all regardless
Futures played before this week
Masters
1* Beefcake +2500 - What in god's name was i doing. Can't believe I couldn't read the room that this number was going to sky rocket this week. That being said I'm a stubborn SOB and I'm adding more
0.5* Smith +3600 - Hey I did something right?!
0.5* Day +6600 - Hard to win if you aren't qualified....yuck. Took a swing with his early form this year to be holding a magical 66-1 ticket when he would've been like 24-1 but missed
0.25* Molinari +12500 - Frankie and me don't get along very well but I love losing $ on him
Adds earlier this week
0.125* Woods +5000 - This is stupid and I don't care. If there is a remote hope that this man is in contention on the weekend. I simply can't handle not having a piece.
0.125* Kiz +15000 - More fanboy....obviously too short for this beautiful course and the rain Thursday sure won't help but I've always believed he will contend once here and this is close to the last shot at it IMO. Putts will have to be rolling in from everywhere but if he gets it going why not?
More to come
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2* Woods to make cut -110 - Could see this as the most popular bet of the week but not something I'll ever care about. I can accept that this could turn out to be a 50/50 proposition but can't fathom how it would be worse than that? Tiger's driver swing honestly looks so much more under control than pre-injury which would've been my biggest concern other than fatigue. His irons will be fine and I trust him obviously around the greens even with the rust. Feels reasonable he'll be accurate enough off the tee to stay out of enough major trouble to stay without striking distance through Friday. Obviously gets a bit different when you get into Day 3/4 of competing at this track but taking that out of the equation here.
Agreed.
KJ
Mayor of Nap
Simple as this for me:
He isn't playing to prove he can make the cut, no one outside of us wagering thinks that he will even cares. He's in win mode, not some nostalgic participation trophy. One good round and one mediocre round gets this in I believe.
Pointsbet has a small boost to +125 on this so I added what else they allowed
0.25 Woods to make cut +125
Alright full card as I know it:
1* Beefcake +2500
0.5* Beefcake +5000
0.75* Brooks +2000
0.5* Smith +3600
0.125* Woods +5000
0.5* Day +6600 - Not qualified.....dead bet
0.25* Molinari +12500
0.125* Kiz +15000
2* Woods -110 and 0.25 +125 to make cut
0.25* Sergo FRL 60-1
Matchups Full Tourney
2* Rahm -127 over JT
1* Smith +135 over JT
1* Smith EV over Sheff
1* Brooks +115 over DJ
1* Brooks +130 over Rory
1* Hov -1.5 +108 over Spieth
1* Beefcake +127 over Deki
1* Frankie +110 over Willett
0.5 Woods +170 over Fatty Patty
Ended up slightly over my 3 units outright outlay that I do for majors due to the dead bet on Day and my complete mis read on the original Beefcake investment last week. No way in hell i wasn't adding extra at 50-1 even if Bryson has one hand and a hockey stick as a putter.....
My 2 fav's to wear the jacket are Rahm and Smith
Mid range that I wanted but based on my absurd card just couldn't use: Lowry, Oostie, Burns, Neimann, Hatton (probably closest on Hatton to playing)
Top guys I'm likely against in head to heads: JT & maybe Rory, Deki
Let's get it going
1* Beefcake +2500
0.5* Beefcake +5000
0.75* Brooks +2000
0.5* Smith +3600
0.125* Woods +5000
0.5* Day +6600 - Not qualified.....dead bet
0.25* Molinari +12500
0.125* Kiz +15000
2* Woods -110 and 0.25 +125 to make cut
0.25* Sergo FRL 60-1
Matchups Full Tourney
2* Rahm -127 over JT
1* Smith +135 over JT
1* Smith EV over Sheff
1* Brooks +115 over DJ
1* Brooks +130 over Rory
1* Hov -1.5 +108 over Spieth
1* Beefcake +127 over Deki
1* Frankie +110 over Willett
0.5 Woods +170 over Fatty Patty
Ended up slightly over my 3 units outright outlay that I do for majors due to the dead bet on Day and my complete mis read on the original Beefcake investment last week. No way in hell i wasn't adding extra at 50-1 even if Bryson has one hand and a hockey stick as a putter.....
My 2 fav's to wear the jacket are Rahm and Smith
Mid range that I wanted but based on my absurd card just couldn't use: Lowry, Oostie, Burns, Neimann, Hatton (probably closest on Hatton to playing)
Top guys I'm likely against in head to heads: JT & maybe Rory, Deki
Let's get it going
Fun tourney......some awful calls but at least Cam was right there. He puts that 2nd shot on the green on number 2 within 20 ft on 3 and I think a very healthy possibility you've got a different winner. Golf is an amazing thing. Once Scottie got the 'Mo back he was incredible....what a showing and congrats Scottie backers
Outrights -4.00 - (This is what i get for being stubborn.....Smith did have a very real shot at still salvaging a nice masters though)
Full Tourney H2H's -5.61 (Wow did I miss on Brooks in particular and JT bouncing back from Fri-Sun cost me a nice sum)
Single round H2H's +0.9
Masters (ouch): -8.71
YTD: +32.53
Outrights -4.00 - (This is what i get for being stubborn.....Smith did have a very real shot at still salvaging a nice masters though)
Full Tourney H2H's -5.61 (Wow did I miss on Brooks in particular and JT bouncing back from Fri-Sun cost me a nice sum)
Single round H2H's +0.9
Masters (ouch): -8.71
YTD: +32.53
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RBC aka Masters Hangover
0.75* Fitz 22-1
0.50* Kiz 45-1
0.50* Na 45-1
0.25* Hoge 66-1
0.15* Riley 175-1
0.10* Dahman 125-1
0.10* CT Pan 125-1
I'll probably dabble in some matchups as well. Wouldn't be surprised yet to see a couple withdrawals (maybe Cantlay) by those committed to the New Orleans team event next week
0.75* Fitz 22-1
0.50* Kiz 45-1
0.50* Na 45-1
0.25* Hoge 66-1
0.15* Riley 175-1
0.10* Dahman 125-1
0.10* CT Pan 125-1
I'll probably dabble in some matchups as well. Wouldn't be surprised yet to see a couple withdrawals (maybe Cantlay) by those committed to the New Orleans team event next week
I was close to leaving Kiz off the card as I'm a bit worried he'll have a masters hangover (he really left it all out there last weekend but putter and driver let him down) but he's damn near auto play at a course like this and in really good form for him.