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PaintCrew 2022 Golf

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Thanks all much love. This one was pretty sweet to get today right before the Vegas trip!

I might have to start putting disclaimers about being a Cam Smith homer to avoid children just like I’ll always do now in the hoops forums with Purdue

2 winners with Cam this year…I can safely say I’ve never hit the same dude winning twice in a season. Me and the Aussie Mullet are now brothers forever

Players: +15.5

YTD: +45.33
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Thanks all much love. This one was pretty sweet to get today right before the Vegas trip!

I might have to start putting disclaimers about being a Cam Smith homer to avoid children just like I’ll always do now in the hoops forums with Purdue

2 winners with Cam this year…I can safely say I’ve never hit the same dude winning twice in a season. Me and the Aussie Mullet are now brothers forever

Players: +15.5

YTD: +45.33
Best part is I love him the most at Augusta….very possible he brings that one home too IMO but I’m getting a little greedy
 

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Best part is I love him the most at Augusta….very possible he brings that one home too IMO but I’m getting a little greedy
Yessir. He was already on my list for Augusta. Scott Leishman & Cam always play well at National.

Nice hit this weekend
 

DaddyMcIlhon

Well-Known Member
Nice hit on Cam. I honestly overlooked him and I’m not sure why. I’m gonna treat lightly this week but I did place a bet on Tommy. I know he never wins, but 50-1 seems like a good number for a guy who played pretty damn well last week. GL this week.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Valspar - Burns of course gets it done. Was tempted to just go 1 and done with him but hard to at that price. Fitzy at least got within striking distance on the back 9
-1.50

YTD: +43.83

WGC Match Play
0.5 X 28-1
0.5 Lowry 33-1
0.25 Harman 50-1
0.25 Kiz 50-1

Love this event. I might have some matchups as well
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Also while i feel terrible for Riley i'm quietly happy he didn't get it done. I've declared to the world I"ll be on him the first time he wins (he will win quite a few longterm IMO ) and I would've been crushed If I wasn't riding with him for that first W (i've cashed with him twice in Korn Ferry - Credit to Josh Perry a few years back for the tip and have followed his career pretty close after that)
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
I was wanting to play Gooch in the group but my place doesn't have group winners.

Can't go wrong with Kisner at this event. Good luck thus week, Paint. :cheers6:
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
R2 Match Play

All 0.5*
Poulter +134
Si Woo +109
Mitchell -110
Gooch -170 (I still can't believe how awful Bland was yesterday. Don't love the juice but hard to see a major recovery)
Kiz -142 (Dude is just an autobet in this setup until proven otherwise and List didn't show all that much yesterday....more so that JT lost it)
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
1 more i forgot

0.5 Power +134

Super close to going back to the well against Bryson but didn't like what I saw out of Westwood yesterday either
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Gooch hurt…just a slow start cost him

2-4 will do unit math at the end

2 for R3
1* Garcia vs BobbyMac -150
2* Gooch vs Bryson -134 - hate the juice but I love this. I think Bryson has achieved all he wanted by getting some competitive rounds in.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
If you have a live # somehow on Gooch have to think it's worth a nibble 2 down after 4.....

Bryson holes out from the native area on 3 and makes a 60 ft'er on 4....Gooch throwing darts
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Got Kiz all the way to the finals and then Scottie just didn't let him off the mat. A missed 4 ft'er and then a holed out bunker shot sealed it.

R1 2-1 +0.63
R2 2-4 -1.23
R3 1-1 +0.5

Outrights -1.5

WGC MatchPlay
-1.6

YTD: +42.23
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Valero

0.5* Finau 35-1 (missed way better numbers but just going with my dudes this week)
0.5* Si Woo 35-1 (same deal)
0.5* Riley 50-1 (i mean this came in lower than i wanted but still priced right IMO)

That'll be it and then on to Masters
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
I don’t recommend this but I added a savor type bet on Bryson as I’m an idiot and bet him next week

Valero
0.5 Bryson 28-1

Masters
1* Bryson 25-1
 

RBTrojan

Well-Known Member
He just doesn’t look right to me physically. Perhaps it’s just a situation where he needs reps to get back into golf shape? I’m wondering if swinging so hard is actually starting to create long term damage. I’m not going to fade him this week, but if he looks similar this week as he did last week, I’ll definitely be looking to fade him at Augusta.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
He just doesn’t look right to me physically. Perhaps it’s just a situation where he needs reps to get back into golf shape? I’m wondering if swinging so hard is actually starting to create long term damage. I’m not going to fade him this week, but if he looks similar this week as he did last week, I’ll definitely be looking to fade him at Augusta.
Yeah no doubt I already feel a little dumb doing it and it's going to come down to the same 2 things per normal for Beefcake (distance control on irons & putting). Obviously he's never putted well at Augusta and I've seen enough with his swings the past few rounds that he'll be able to give it a go and I've created my own narrative in my head that a little fresh start could do him really nicely at Augusta coming in without really any form at all.

I'd have to go back through but the time's he's popped and won he's typically been off the radar a bit. I'm also a stubborn SOB and while the "Augusta is in his head" narrative could well be true I'm not sure 2 events in a 6 month span (played in wildly different conditions) is enough to prove that out. I'm going back to the well simply for the upside at a price in the 20's that will either look really silly one way or another. Honestly not sure Bryson even out of form should be near 30-1 in any event even as a headcase and off an injury.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Alright here's where I'm at on the masters....couple face palms at this point

Full disclaimer while the world advertises this is the easiest tourney to cap I've hit exactly 1 masters outright (but it was a one shot one kill with Tiger in 2019 and I'll never forget it). I think most of that is due to variance and the rest is me being stubborn as hell and in a couple cases a fanboy. Don't care either way as it's just golf heaven and i'll love it all regardless

Futures played before this week

Masters
1* Beefcake +2500 - What in god's name was i doing. Can't believe I couldn't read the room that this number was going to sky rocket this week. That being said I'm a stubborn SOB and I'm adding more
0.5* Smith +3600 - Hey I did something right?!
0.5* Day +6600 - Hard to win if you aren't qualified....yuck. Took a swing with his early form this year to be holding a magical 66-1 ticket when he would've been like 24-1 but missed
0.25* Molinari +12500 - Frankie and me don't get along very well but I love losing $ on him

Adds earlier this week
0.125* Woods +5000 - This is stupid and I don't care. If there is a remote hope that this man is in contention on the weekend. I simply can't handle not having a piece.
0.125* Kiz +15000 - More fanboy....obviously too short for this beautiful course and the rain Thursday sure won't help but I've always believed he will contend once here and this is close to the last shot at it IMO. Putts will have to be rolling in from everywhere but if he gets it going why not?

More to come
 
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PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
2* Woods to make cut -110 - Could see this as the most popular bet of the week but not something I'll ever care about. I can accept that this could turn out to be a 50/50 proposition but can't fathom how it would be worse than that? Tiger's driver swing honestly looks so much more under control than pre-injury which would've been my biggest concern other than fatigue. His irons will be fine and I trust him obviously around the greens even with the rust. Feels reasonable he'll be accurate enough off the tee to stay out of enough major trouble to stay without striking distance through Friday. Obviously gets a bit different when you get into Day 3/4 of competing at this track but taking that out of the equation here.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
2* Woods to make cut -110 - Could see this as the most popular bet of the week but not something I'll ever care about. I can accept that this could turn out to be a 50/50 proposition but can't fathom how it would be worse than that? Tiger's driver swing honestly looks so much more under control than pre-injury which would've been my biggest concern other than fatigue. His irons will be fine and I trust him obviously around the greens even with the rust. Feels reasonable he'll be accurate enough off the tee to stay out of enough major trouble to stay without striking distance through Friday. Obviously gets a bit different when you get into Day 3/4 of competing at this track but taking that out of the equation here.
Agreed.
 

KJ

Mayor of Nap
2* Woods to make cut -110 - Could see this as the most popular bet of the week but not something I'll ever care about. I can accept that this could turn out to be a 50/50 proposition but can't fathom how it would be worse than that? Tiger's driver swing honestly looks so much more under control than pre-injury which would've been my biggest concern other than fatigue. His irons will be fine and I trust him obviously around the greens even with the rust. Feels reasonable he'll be accurate enough off the tee to stay out of enough major trouble to stay without striking distance through Friday. Obviously gets a bit different when you get into Day 3/4 of competing at this track but taking that out of the equation here.
Simple as this for me:

He isn't playing to prove he can make the cut, no one outside of us wagering thinks that he will even cares. He's in win mode, not some nostalgic participation trophy. One good round and one mediocre round gets this in I believe.
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
2* Woods to make cut -110 - Could see this as the most popular bet of the week but not something I'll ever care about. I can accept that this could turn out to be a 50/50 proposition but can't fathom how it would be worse than that? Tiger's driver swing honestly looks so much more under control than pre-injury which would've been my biggest concern other than fatigue. His irons will be fine and I trust him obviously around the greens even with the rust. Feels reasonable he'll be accurate enough off the tee to stay out of enough major trouble to stay without striking distance through Friday. Obviously gets a bit different when you get into Day 3/4 of competing at this track but taking that out of the equation here.
Pointsbet has a small boost to +125 on this so I added what else they allowed
0.25 Woods to make cut +125
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Alright full card as I know it:
1* Beefcake +2500
0.5* Beefcake +5000
0.75* Brooks +2000
0.5* Smith +3600
0.125* Woods +5000
0.5* Day +6600 - Not qualified.....dead bet
0.25* Molinari +12500
0.125* Kiz +15000

2* Woods -110 and 0.25 +125 to make cut

0.25* Sergo FRL 60-1

Matchups Full Tourney
2* Rahm -127 over JT
1* Smith +135 over JT
1* Smith EV over Sheff
1* Brooks +115 over DJ
1* Brooks +130 over Rory
1* Hov -1.5 +108 over Spieth
1* Beefcake +127 over Deki
1* Frankie +110 over Willett
0.5 Woods +170 over Fatty Patty


Ended up slightly over my 3 units outright outlay that I do for majors due to the dead bet on Day and my complete mis read on the original Beefcake investment last week. No way in hell i wasn't adding extra at 50-1 even if Bryson has one hand and a hockey stick as a putter.....

My 2 fav's to wear the jacket are Rahm and Smith

Mid range that I wanted but based on my absurd card just couldn't use: Lowry, Oostie, Burns, Neimann, Hatton (probably closest on Hatton to playing)

Top guys I'm likely against in head to heads: JT & maybe Rory, Deki

Let's get it going
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
R4 1* Charl -110 over Willet

I think Cam has a better shot than the current odds to chase down Scottie but I’m already exposed twelve different ways on Cam so will just enjoy hopefully a nice sweat
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
Fun tourney......some awful calls but at least Cam was right there. He puts that 2nd shot on the green on number 2 within 20 ft on 3 and I think a very healthy possibility you've got a different winner. Golf is an amazing thing. Once Scottie got the 'Mo back he was incredible....what a showing and congrats Scottie backers

Outrights -4.00 - (This is what i get for being stubborn.....Smith did have a very real shot at still salvaging a nice masters though)
Full Tourney H2H's -5.61 (Wow did I miss on Brooks in particular and JT bouncing back from Fri-Sun cost me a nice sum)
Single round H2H's +0.9

Masters (ouch): -8.71

YTD: +32.53
 
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PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
RBC aka Masters Hangover

0.75* Fitz 22-1
0.50* Kiz 45-1
0.50* Na 45-1
0.25* Hoge 66-1
0.15* Riley 175-1
0.10* Dahman 125-1
0.10* CT Pan 125-1

I'll probably dabble in some matchups as well. Wouldn't be surprised yet to see a couple withdrawals (maybe Cantlay) by those committed to the New Orleans team event next week
 

PaintCrew

Well-Known Member
I was close to leaving Kiz off the card as I'm a bit worried he'll have a masters hangover (he really left it all out there last weekend but putter and driver let him down) but he's damn near auto play at a course like this and in really good form for him.
 
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