LAST - [1-0 +4.27u]
OCT - [48-51 -28.85u]
2021 - [85-85 -26.64u]
Subpar October, but started new month right last night, hoping to keep it going tonight.
5/4.81 GEORGIA STATE +12½ -104
Georgia St at LOUISIANA - LA is 5-0 SU vs GSU, but GSU 3-0-2 ATS in series. ULL
is back at home for a 2nd straight weekk after blowing out Texas St 45-0 last week while GSU took down rival Gs Southern 21-14. ULL has ran for 265 ypg (6.2) L4 games but here face a Panther run D that is allowing 150 ypg (3.8) in their L6 games. On the other hand GSU’s offense has gotten going thanks to their run game avg 260 ypg (5.5) the L6 games but the Cajuns rush D has been solid this season, allowing only 158 ypg (3.9). Against 3 common SBC foes LA is +118 ypg/+27 ppg while GSU is -37 ypg/-3 ppg but overall GSU has played the tougher schedule (#76 vs #116). Both of LA’s big wins were home weekday games so there is a chance of that, but Georgia State has covered 5 of L6. Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Georgia State is also 4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, ULL is 4-1 ATS in L5 home games and 5-2 ATS in L7 Thursday games. The Cajuns are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine after an ATS win as well. Gimme the points on this mid week delicacy.
4/3.81 Virginia Tech / Boston College UNDER 47½ -105
Hokies 2-7 ATS L9 away and 1-5 ATS
L6 games overall. BC is 6-2 ATS L8 @home but 2-6 ATS L8 on Friday. Under is 8-2 in Hokies L10 overall and 4-0 in Eagles L4 overall. Hokies 1-4 ATS in L5 meetings @BC and 3-7 ATS L10 meetings overall. VT has been hit or miss this season, and they’re not particularly great at anything, but they are physical in the trenches, and they usually win the games they’re supposed to. The Eagles have been horrible offensively during this losing stretch, scoring no more than 14 points in their last four games. Tech isn’t the sort of team you can expect a slumping offense to turn things around against. However you must consider that BC QB Dennis Grosel was thrust into starting job Week 2 when Phil Jurkovec was lost for the season to injury, and Grosel has struggled. Early on, he had issues with accuracy and holding the ball too long in the pocket, but his play has improved, and head coach Jeff Hafley is still convinced he’s “the guy” going forward. Hafley will be looking to make amends to the home faithful after getting smacked around by NC State in BC’s last home appearance, and the fact that Tech is an overall negative stat team (-31 net YPG) while BC is a positive squad (+12 net YPG) could go a ways here. Ugly game, but with the Hokies recent 3-7 ATS slide in this series plus BC's 9-3-1 ATS run as a home dog, I'll have to back the home team plus a little bit on the under as well.
Utah 6-1 ATS L7 vs teams with a losing record and 20-8 ATS L28 conference games while over 4-0 L4 overall. Stanford 1-5 ATS L6 @home and 1-4 ATS L5 overall with the under cashing 4 of last 5 conference games. Home dogs are mostly always worth a look, but it’s hard to make a case for Stanford considering the way the Cardinal is struggling. As much as you may not want to lay wood on the road, Utah is the better team here and are really making a push for the Pac-12 title game. Hate that the line has moved from 6' to 9 and may even hit 10 with 85% of tickets and ~ 80% of the money backing the Utes. Maybe I'll wait and see where this number finishes...
5/4.76  Wake Forest / North Carolina OVER 77 -105
5/4.76  Tulsa +22½ -105
5/4.76  Liberty +8 -105
5/4.39  NAVY +21 -114
5/4.76  NC CHARLOTTE (UNCC) -6½ -105
5/4.72  WESTERN KENTUCKY -17½ -106
5/4.76  FRESNO STATE -5- 105
5/4.76  NEW MEXICO -1½ -105
5/4.76  Florida International +3 -105
5/4.76  Alabama -28½ -105
5/4.85  SAN JOSE STATE +11 -103
For the 3rd straight year ,counting the American championship game last year, Tulsa plays at Cincy. Last year Tulsa was playing for the AAC Championship for the first time in school history! It rained all game and TUL QB Smith struggled(13-30). Cincy had not played in a month. Tulsa never led but went 80 yards for TD with 3:41 left to tie 24-24.
Cincy then kicked FG with :00 left for the win @home 27-24 (-14). Fickell is 12-10-1 ATS as a HF while Montgomery is 19-8 ATS as an AD plus Tulsa is 9-0 ATS L9 vs ranked teams and this year went into Ohio St and only trailed by 7 with 5:00 to go. Tulsa also almost upset Okie St on the road only losing by 5. They went 3-1 after that to get to 3-4 and last week the first 9 drives had 8 punts and Tulsa fumble @Navy and still only lost by 3. Cincy is a perfect 8-0 and needs style points to make the playoff. They played the same Navy team 2 weeks ago and only won 27-20. Last week they were in need of big wins for the playoff and Tulane was without top 2 QBs. Cincy only led 14-12 at half with Tulane having a 186-173 yd edge. It was 21 -12 with 7:25 left when Tulane fumbled and Cincy got a FG then added TD with only :43 left in a closer than the final 31-12 Cincy win. Tulsa has had the tougher schedule (#63 vs #92). The model only favors Cincy by 16 and Montgomery is a dangerous road dog especially vs ranked teams. Cincy is also playing unbeaten pressure so I’m favoring Tulsa to keep it’s ATS streak vs ranked teams alive and secure their 3rd cover of Cincy in that stretch.
This was an automatic selection for many year when Navy traveled to South Bend, as they do again today. The Mids at one point covered ten straight times @ND thru 2009, and look to be up to their old tricks again in 2021 having covered in 5 of L6, all as a dog, reprising what for years was a great role for Navy under Ken Niumatalolo, who were 33-16-1 ATS as dogs from 2009-2018, and now they're starting another doggie run this season. Plus the Irish are just 3-7 ATS laying DD since last season.
The Commander-in-Chief's Trophy battles mostly always trend under and for good reason, as the dueling option attacks can be expected to move the chains and the clock. Especially the games involving Army, with West Point and Navy always an under since 2005 and this matchup vs. Air Force has now cashed under 7 in a row. I'm expecting more of the same today, this time in Arlington at AT&T Stadium. Of note: the Falcons are also working on unders in 3 straight and 6 of 8 this season while Army has stayed under 3 of L4.
Also strongly considering the Boilers +3 vs Sparty as it seems the book is begging for MSU bets!
Heels 2-6 ATS in L8 away and 1-5 ATS L6 games as dog. Panthers 10-4 ATS L14 Nov games and 5-1 ATS L6 games overall. The over is 6-2 in UNC L8 overall while over has also cashed 7 of L8 PIT home games. Tar Heels 5-2 ATS in L7 meetings.
Pitt clearly the more consistent team this season, and they have an edge both offensively and defensively as well. 5.2). Pitt has the edge on D, holding foes 22 ypg below their avg and they’ve got 25 sacks (9.4%) vs a NC O-line that has allowed 31 sacks (12.6%). NC is only holding foes 7 ypg below their avg which doesn’t bode well against a Pitt offense that avg 541 ypg. NC has had the tougher sked (#31 vs #93). However, it hard to pass getting a free TD with such an explosive offense in UNC, who just beat a top-10 team in Wake Forest, took Notre Dame down to the wire the week before, and is 9th in total offense and 12th in scoring offense. Shapes up as a back and forth contest. I'll take the 7 and back an explosive offense getting points. They's posted a tall total but in this prime time showcase I can see both teams lighting up the scoreboard and quite possibly both end up in the 40's...so over 73 is live as well
WYO 1-5 ATS L6 games overall and 0-4-1 ATS L5 away while over is 4-0 in L4 on turf. Boise 1-7 ATS L8 after a win while under 4-0 in their L4 games overall. I can see why you’d back Boise State as a fav at home since the Broncos just feel like a different team on the blue turf. However, WYO has an ugly 0-3-1 ATS record on the road, but they’ve gone 2-2 in those games and in conference play, they’ve only had one loss by more than 11 points. BSU had a massive win against Fresno St last week and they could be in for a bit of a letdown here as they haven’t been able to follow up big wins all season long. I'll take Wyoming and the 14 here in this conference tilt. WYO snapped 4-game SU and 5-game spread losing streaks in winning first MWC game behind an offensive “explosion” (for the Cowboys, at least) 31 -17 against Col St. Cowboy QB Levi Williams tossed 2 TDs and ran for 116 yds and a score to lead the win in his 2nd start as Sean Chambers stays on the bench. The Cowboy offense still only ranks 110th and 102nd in scoring at 23 ppg. Boise climbed back in the MW Mountain Division race with huge 40-14 win behind QB Bachmeier's 283 yards passing, RB George Holani's 117 YR and a 5 sack / 3 forced TO game by the Bronco D. WYO has proven a poor play on the road cashing only 1 of last 11, but BSU is 14-1 SU vs WYO but only 5-6 ATS L11 which definitely trends for the Pokes. I'm adding under along with WYO.
MIA is on a 4-0 series run including a 52-10 whooping last year. The home team is 3-12 ATS in this series. Canes were left for dead after starting 2-3 but they’ve won 3 straight and 2 of their losses were by a combined 5 pts. A week ago UM jumped out to a 14-0 lead on GT. UM missed a FG and allowed a fumble ret td in the 1H then was SOD twice in the 2H and only won 33-30. MIA still has a shot at the ACC Coastal Title while FSU’s bowl hopes are all but shot after a 28-14 (+2’) loss vs NCS. The Noles have been held under 300 yds in B2B games and are -10 ypg against a #57 schedule while UM is +49 ypg vs #28 schedule. QB Van Dyke has topped 300 pass yds in 3 straight and RB Knighton had 162 last week. The Canes are off a misleading final and shape up as my Play of the Week!
I’m liking Arizona State, even though their win last weekend wasn’t pretty. The Sun Devils posted 427 yards of offense against USC, with a whopping 282 of those coming on the ground. Arizona State managed 6.9 ypp and 5-of-10 mark on 3rd-4th-down, but had three turnovers. As for Washington, it’s tough to gauge them vs a great Oregon team, as the Huskies put up just 166 yards of offense and seven first downs. Defensively Washington held on as long as they could but there was no stopping the Ducks with 329 rush yards. The Huskies should look better here but I'll still back ASU. The Sun Devils do struggle in cold weather (only 1-5 in Oct-Dec when traveling to CO, OR, UT & WA) plus they've went 3-7 ATS run as an AF, so this is a tough call, but the huge home win vs USC will carry over and Sun Devils will be sky high.
Utah is 21-8 ATS in L29 conference games and 4-1 ATS L5 games overall. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in L7 as a dog and 1-4 ATS vs teams with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in Utes L5 games overall but the under is 4-1 in Wildcats L5 overall. The Utes are 4-0 ATS L4 meetings. Utah is head and shoulders the better team here, but they have had issues on the road this season and this is a look ahead game with Oregon on deck next week. The Wildcats finally got in the win column last week, so the team may be more confident here, and they’ve been a lot more competitive these last few weeks overall. This is big number, but Utah needs to step up and make a statement. Plus UT IS 18-7 ATS in L25 matchups with ASU who is on a 3-9 ATS run @home.
Louisville 42 DUKE 13 ...The David Cutcliffe era is coming to an end. I doubt that even the possibility that Arch Manning might prefers to play for the same coach who tutored his uncles can be enough to save David Cutcliffe at Duke, which is in danger of being left no better than the mess that Cutcliffe inherited from Ted Roof after the 2007 season. The chance that Cutcliffe can name his departure date (which the school had once hoped might be when his contract expires following the 2023 campaign) a la Mike Krzyzewski, but AD Kevin White is almost to the point where he has to have a difficult discussion with Cutcliffe as the Blue Devils have collapsed for the 3rd straight season, barely competitive in the current 6-game skid in which the Duke non-D has allowed nearly 50 ppg the past four losses. The oddsmakers are making us pay a steep price to back the ‘Ville, but Duke offers an irresistible combo for defeat with its aforementioned battle-scarred defense and an offense that’s been held to single digits in three of the past six games. This could get ugly, with Malik Cunningham now throwing TD passes (4 of ‘em in last week’s 41-3 bombardment of the ‘Cuse) for the Cards on top of his ‘Ville-best 709 YR and 16 rush TDs. Scott Satterfield also trying to ensure that his AD Vince Tyra isn’t going to want to have the same discussion that White might be having soon with Cutcliffe. This spread would need to climb to well beyond 3 TDs to cause any hesitation with another go-against-the-Blue Devils recommendation.
Memphis ...Believe it or not, Houston is No. 29 in ypp margin while Memphis is No. 30. The Cougars have won 9 straight and just made their first appearance in the CFB Playoff poll on Tuesday night. Memphis is off a tough loss to ECU in OT. I originally leaned with Houston here but those ypp stats with Memphis playing the tougher schedule raised some eyebrows.
Arizona ...The Wildcats have been super competitive as of late with 4 straight covers. None of their last 3 losses have come by double-digits. Wazzu saw their 6-game ATS win streak come up a half point short vs Oregon last week, but depending on what day and time the bet was placed, some Coug backers may have got off with a push thanks to a late State score in Eugene. WSU is only No. 82 in ypp margin and although they most likely win SU, I'll back Arizona +15 tonight.
Blowout of Purdue helped solidify Ohio State’s position in the championship pecking order, even with their D again leaving something to be desired. OSU got WR Wilson back (10 rec, 126 yds, 3 TDs and a 51 yard TD run) and super frosh T Henderson (98 yds rec, 2 TDs vs Boilers) and supplemented well with frosh M Williams who resurfaced big last week(14 carries 125 yds). The Buckeye D was reemed by Aidan O'Connel for 390 yards passing and 4 TD's a week ago and I'm not sure Sparty's Payton Thorne can't at least some of the same as the Buckeye secondary ranks 108th in pass yards allowed. One issue is the matchup of the OSU offense (46ppg, 550 ypg tops in nation) vs Spartan pass defense that has given up more pass yards than any other major team(130th at 329 ypg) and ranks 111th in total defense...as they may be is big trouble vs Stroud and his array of weapons(top 3 WRs combined for 25 TDs and 163 catches). Michigan St does control their own destiny in conference having beat UM and probably a spot in playoffs if they win out. However, the same could also be said for the Buckeyes who have beat Spartans 5 straight cashing the number in last 4. It may sound like a lot, but with this offense vs this defense I think it's really a no brainer, OHIO STATE -19 for the cabbage.
MISSISSIPPI ST - Ole Miss has won the L/2 Egg Bowls including LY 31-24 (-9’) where Rogers & Corral combined for an Egg Bowl record with 825 pass yards. MSU only had 47 players available in that game yet had chance to tie it late. Ole Miss has gotten healthier and was clearly looking ahead LW, only beating Vandy 31-17 (-36) while MSU only had FCS Tenn St LW. RB Ealy has been the catalyst lately, including 152 vs A&M. After rushing for 450 in the F/6, Corral has just 102 in his L/5. MSU has a huge edge on D, holding foes 73 ypg below their avg and they allow just 96 (3.36) rush but the Bulldogs are just #69 in pass D rankings. Ole Miss allows 18 ypg more than their foes allow on avg but are #35 in pass D rankings. MSU is only 3-7 ATS at home under Leach.
SAN JOSE ST - Both teams are off a bye. FSU is 2-1 SU in the L/3 games but are 0-2-1 ATS & in their last meeting (‘19) SJSt (+2’) pulled the upset. FSU still has a shot to reach the MW title game (needs a SDSt loss) while SJSt needs this win for a bowl. Over the L/4 games Fresno’s offense is putting up 425 ypg but SJSt’s D is holding MW foes to 367 ypg, but Fresno does have a strong pass attack (328 ypg, 66%) while SJSt’s pass D ranks #68. SJSt’s offense is only putting up 331 ypg/20 ppg in MW play but Fresno’s D is allowing 54 ypg above opp avg the L/4 games. Against 5 common MW foes FSU is +37 ypg/+7 ppg while SJSt is +38 ypg/+2 ppg & this looks like it will be a close, competitive game. Take the points
TEXAS -3 ...Early this season Texas led Oklahoma in the 2H and everything seemed so positive for the 'horns, before the impending disaster that was the 2021 season. The eventual 55-48 loss to the Sooners was the start of a 6-game losing streak and there will be no bowl game this year for the once might Longhorns. This is their longest losing streak since 1956, so you can imagine Sarkisian wants badly to stop it here and take some sort of positive feeling into a long offseason. Sarkisian has frequently switched quarterbacks, but the results from Casey Thompson and Hudson Card have been erratic. Star running back Bijan Robinson, who had 1,127 rushing yards, is out for the season with a dislocated elbow.
Then there's the porous defense that surrendered 459 yards to WV last week with even bigger problems than the offense. Kansas State, 2-2 ATS in the underdog role this season, had a four-game winning streak stopped last week in a 20-10 loss to Baylor. The Wildcats drew sharp betting action in that game to close -2. Texas is a slim 2-point fav this week. Let's remember that K-State senior QB Skylar Thompson, was carted off last week with a left leg injury. If Thompson can't go, Texas should easily find their season ending W. Latest reports say Thompson unlikely to suit up today.
BOISE -3 ...Andy Avalos has seen plenty of adversity as first year as Boise St coach, but he should be encouraged as the Broncos dropped 3 home games, something that hasn't happened in 20+ years of dominance on the blue turf, and had a losing record in late October...but rebounded and now bring a 4-game winning streak into this regular-season finale at SDS. The game is on the Aztecs’ temp home field in suburban LA. The 9AM local kickoff was set for CBS because the Mountain West is desperate for national TV exposure, but the strange situation means thousands of empty seats and no real home-field advantage. The Broncos have a huge edge at QB with Hank Bachmeier, who has 18 TD passes. The Aztecs’ QB production has been dismal all season, and their 10-1 record feels a result of smoke-and-mirrors. San Diego State defeated UNLV 28-20 last week even while being outgained 394-290. A good passer like Bachmeier should be able to exploit the Aztecs’ defense. It’s a must-win game for Boise, which is tied for the lead in its division, plus these teams may well run it back in the conference championship game. The Broncos feel like the right side as small chalk.
NEBRASKA -1 ...Scott Frost must feel fortunate that Nebraska AD Trev Alberts is giving him one more chance to turn things around next season. But in a nod to the times, Frost has already had to sacrifice some assistants. This season has been frustrating with all 8 losses by 9 points or less, but it may suggest a turnaround may be closer than people think, likely allowing Frost another season. That said it's still hard to see a struggling 3-8 NEB team favored vs the 9-2 (17th ranked) Hawkeyes. Iowa isn't storming down the stretch, failing to cover 4 of L5, and Kirk Ferentz even made a switch at QB last week, with game manager Spencer Petras benched in favor of the enhanced playmaking ability of Alex Padilla. That move played to mixed reviews in the latest win-and-no-cover against Illinois, but the Hawkeyes’ recipe of defense and field position seems the best course of action for Ferentz' offensively limited squad. The Hawkeyes need help from Minnesota against Wisconsin to get to the Big Ten title game next week, but as unimpressive as Iowa has looked since mid-October, I'm thinking the Hawkeyes will be eliminated from the West race before the Badgers / Gophers even kick off.
In three weeks, the Gators have lost their defensive coordinator, offensive line and run game coordinator, and head coach, who also happens to have been the play-caller. Mullen has long been known as one of the best play-callers in the business. If all of this sudden change in coaching input seems too drastic for a floundering team to you, then you are not alone. I'm also skeptical of the late season coaching changes having any real chance to effect a spark. They lost a ton of talent to the NFL last season, and Mullen’s ability to reload was called into question. The doubt was punctuated by the most recent results(Samford, Mizzou, So Car) and his dismissal before season’s end, prior to the annual rivalry game, for gawds sake. Perhaps I'm wrong, but it sure seems like the Florida admin is willing to sacrifice or write off the FSU game for the sake of getting a head start on finding its new head coach. There’s nobody left for the kids to play for! As far as the match-up is concerned, it’s strong rushing offense (FSU) vs. weakening run defense (Florida), plus Florida’s offense has tossed 15 INTs, third-most in the nation. The 'holes may win this one going away...
Wisconcin & Minnesota not only both rank in top 5 of teams who rush the ball more(only trailing service academies), WIS sports the #1 run defense and MIN #11. Both teams rank 117th & 118th respectively in pass offense of 130 top schools. This total is low, but probably not low enough. I like Wisky 17-9 so even if a weird defensive TD plays in, the under can and most likely will still cash.
Jim Harbaugh brings a 0-5 record vs the Buckeyes as MI’s coach despite the Wolverines leading the series 58-51-6. Ohio State jumped Alabama and Cincinnati to No. 2 in the AP poll after shellacking No. 7 Michigan State 56-7. C.J. Stroud (32 of 35, 432 yards) tied a school record with six touchdown passes, all in the first half. The Buckeyes piled up 655 yards and held the Spartans to 224. Ohio State scored TDs on all seven first-half possessions and eclipsed 50 points for the sixth time this season. Meanwhile, No. 6 MI suffered no letdown in a lookahead spot as the Wolverines traveled to Maryland and won 59-18. Michigan rolled up over 500 yards of total offense but also scored a touchdown on defense with a 42-yard pick-6 and special teams with an 81-yard kickoff return. The Wolverines’ offense has improved to 23rd in the FBS at 447.9 ypg but does not approach Ohio State’s numbers. The Buckeyes rank No. 1 in total offense at 559.9 ypg and No. 1 in scoring offense at 47.2 ppg. Michigan ranks in the Top 10 in scoring defense, total defense and passing yards allowed. Most books opened Ohio State -7 on Sunday before slight movement up to -8 before settling back around 7 to 7.5 . OSU has won 15 of the last 16 meetings, which includes the longest Buckeyes winning streak in series history at eight games from 2012 to the present. Harbaugh has perhaps his best team ever at Michigan, but has Michigan closed the gap enough? I'm not sure and will likely be on the sidelines wager-wise and just enjoy a fun matchup. Slight lean to MI +7 but Buckeyes win SU 34-30