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NFL 21

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 1
Texans +3,5 @-110 to win 1u
Chiefs -5,5 @-110 to win 1u
Washington -2 @-110 to win 1u

ML parlay Vikings / Panthers / Bills / Packers @419 to win 4.19u

SB winner: Packers @1300 to win 60u

I fade a rookie qb / head coach, that is favoured by more than a field goal on the road, even when they play at Houston.

The Chiefs are simply the better team and I expect them to roll. Mahomes 10-0 SU in September and Andy Reid off a bye.

Missed the better number for the WFT, where I fade a west coast team travelling across the country to play an early game with a qb, who is really good, but is playing on the road with/against fans for the first time.

Parlay for fun with teams, I think will win, but don't like the spread. Not confident enough to take the dogs in those games.
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Thx B.A.R Same to you.

1-3 -2,2u

You know it's the NFL, when a four-team-favourite-ml-parlay loses, because of three losses by the favs, who lost not even close....

MNF: Raiders +4 @-104 to win 1u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 1: 2-3 -1,2u
Dogs ATS 2-0 +2u
Favs ATS 0-2 -2,2u
Parlay 0-1 -1u (3 of 4 ML favs lost outright)

Something tells me, I should focus on dog plays.

Week 2
Jets +6 @-110 to win 1u
Eagles +3 @-110 to win 1u
Bears -1,5 @-110 to win 1u
Panthers +3,5 @-110 to win 1u
ML parlay Browns / Packers / Bucs / Steelers / Broncos @190 to win 1,9u

Late games: Like the Titans, if I can get 7 and try to talk me into a play on the Cardinals.
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 2: 2-5 -3,45u
Dogs ATS 1-2 -1,2u
Favs ATS 1-1 -0,1u
Parlay 0-1 -1u (1 of 5 ML favs lost outright)
Totals 0-1 -1,15u

Total 4-8 -4,65u
Dogs ATS 3-2 +0,8u
Favs ATS 1-3 -2,3u
Parlay 0-2 -2u
Totals 0-1 -1,15u

TNF
Leans: Panthers 1H and/or under. Still thinking.
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Titans line back to -4,5 because of Wentz playing? I'll let it go. Think he won't be as mobile as if he was completely healthy.

Bills TT over 26,5 @-118 to win 1,5u

Giants scored 29 points against WFT and the Chargers only 20, but could have easily scored a td more. So I think the Bills offense also should be able to score 27+ points.
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Total 6-8 -1,15u
Dogs ATS 3-2 +0,8u
Favs ATS 2-3 -0,3u
Parlay 0-2 -2u
Totals 1-1 0,35u

Dolphins -2 @-110 to win 1u
Vikings +2 @-110 to win 1u

ML parlay still pending
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Update
Total 9-12 -0,44u (Week 5 Rams TNT included)

Dogs ATS 3-3 -0,3u
Favs ATS 4-4 +2,6u
Parlays 1-3 -2u
Totals 1-2 -0,74u

Sunday:
Panthers -3 -110 to win 2u
ML parlay Titans / Vikings -116 to win 1.5u

Eagles gave up 83 points against the Cowboys and the Chiefs, which are both good offenses. Panthers probably won't score 40+ but I think 24+ should be possible, even without CMC, who I expect to play. Carolinas defense 4th in DVOA and will hold Eagles under 20, so -3 should win.

Titans and Vikings both the better teams in these matchups and don't like the spreads, but expect both to win.
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Add two parlays for 0.5u free bets

Panthers -3,5 / Titans -3,5 / Vikings -9,5 / Steelers +1,5 / Saints -2,5 / 49ers +6,5 / Ravens -6,5 @7585to win 37,43u
Jets +3,5 / Panthers -2,5 / Packers -2,5 / Steelers +3,5 / Chargers -1,5 / Bears +6,5 / Giants +7,5 @4719 to win 23,10u
 
Last edited:

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 5: 5-1 +5,3u with real money (plus 0-2 parlays with free money)

Total 13-13 +2,86u

Dogs ATS 4-3 +1,2u
Favs ATS 4-5 +0,4u
Parlays 2-3 -0,5u (2-5 -0,5u with two free bets)
Totals 3-2 +1,76u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 6
Rams -7 @-118 to win 1u
Ravens - Chargers over 51 @-112 to win 2u
ML parlay Chiefs / Packers @100 to win 2u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 6: 5-2 +2,68u

Total 18-15 +5,54u

Dogs ATS 4-4 +0,1u
Favs ATS 7-5 +3,4u
Parlays 3-3 +1,5u (3-5 -0,5u with two free bets)
Totals 4-3 +0,54u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
10-3 +7.98u last two weeks.

Don't want to be too greedy, but like the kind of a letdown spot for the Bills after the statement win at KC. If Henry keeps up his stats of the last games Titans can keep it close.

Titans +6 @-110 to win 1u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 6: 6-2 +3,68u

Total 19-15 +6,54u

Dogs ATS 5-4 +1,1u
Favs ATS 7-5 +3,4u
Parlays 3-3 +1,5u (3-5 -0,5u with two free bets)
Totals 4-3 +0,54u

11-3 +8.98u last two weeks.

Week 7
ML parlay: Packers / Pats / Bucs @-102 to win 1.5u

Can't see any of them lose. Packers will take of business, but don't like the spread because of the look-ahead game against the Cardinals. Pats and Bellichek at home against a rookie qb, who lost at home 6-25 in week 2 against the Pats. And the Bucs are by far the superior team with extra rest.
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Giants +3 @-110 to win 1u
Titans +4,5 @-110 to win 1u
Titans - Chiefs over 57,5 @-110 to win 1u
Bengals +6 @-110 to win 1u
Seahawks +4 @-110 to win 1u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Stafford over 288.5 passing yards
Stafford over 2.5 TD
each @-115 to win 0.5u

Raiders - Eagles over 48 @-110 to win 1u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 7: 8-1 +6,4u

Total 27-16 +12,94u

Dogs ATS 9-4 +5,1u
Favs ATS 7-5 +3,4u
Parlays 4-3 +3u (3-5 -0,5u with two free bets)
Totals 7-4 +1,44

19-4 +15,38u last three weeks. Can't remember such a run. Will come to an end, maybe soon so fade

Week 8:
Packers +6 @-105 to win 1u

Play Rodgers in primetime with +6 points on principle. Even without Adams there are enough weapons to keep it close. Jones, Dillon, Lazard, Cobb, Tonyan can run, catch and score too.
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Steelers +4.5 @-110 to win 1u
Bills -14 @-110 to win 1u

Like way too many games and have to select, because I don't want to bet 10 games. Other leans

Lions +3.5
Titans ML
Falcons -3
Chargers if I can get -4
Seahawks if I can get -3
Saints +4.5
Broncos-WFT over 44
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Add a fun system bet 5 of 6 for 0.5u stakes:
Titans +7,5 / Lions +7,5 / WFT +7,5 / Falcons ML / Seahawks ML / Bengals -6,5 to win 3,63u max (if all 6 come through) or to win between 0,13u an 0,23u (if one them loses)
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 8
Packers +6 @-105 to win 1u
Td scorer Aaron Rodgers @700 to win 1.75u
Steelers +4.5 @-110 to win 1u
Bills -14 @-110 to win 1u

Add a fun system bet 5 of 6 for 0.5u stakes:
Titans +7,5 / Lions +7,5 / WFT +7,5 / Falcons ML / Seahawks ML / Bengals -6,5 to win 3,63u max (if all 6 come through) or to win between 0,13u an 0,23u (if one them loses)
Falcons -3 @-102 to win 1u
Chargers -4
Bucs -4
Broncos-WFT over 44

each @-110 to win 1u

3-6 -2,07u

After eight weeks: Total 30-22 +10,87u

Dogs ATS 11-4 +7,1u
Favs ATS 8-8 +1,18u
Parlays 4-4 +2,5u (3-5 -0,5u with two free bets)
Totals 7-5 +0,34
Props: 0-1 -0,25u

Week 9
ML parlay Colts / Ravens / Saints / Cowboys @188 to win 3. 76u still pending!
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Tough card today, don't like it. Will stay with the ML parlay for the afternoon games and add:

Bills -14 @-118 to win 1u (bought the hook)
Giants +3,5 @-115 to win 1u

Can't imagine the Raiders come to west coast for an early start after this week being fully focused on playing a football game.

Like Chargers, 49ers and Packers for the later games, but missed the good numbers, so wait for the outcome of the early games.

Godd luck all!
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 9: 2-2 -0,18u

After nine weeks: Total 32-24 +10,69u

Dogs ATS 12-4 +8,1u
Favs ATS 8-9 +0u
Favs ML 1-0 +2,0u
Parlays 4-5 +0,5u
Totals 7-5 +0,34
Props: 0-1 -0,25u

Week 10
Bills -12,5 @-111 to win 2u
Jags +10 @-110 to win 1u
Falcons +8,5 @-117 to win 1u
ML parlay Chargers / Packers @156 to win 1.56u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 10 so far: 3-3 +0,63u

MNF
Rams -3,5 @-110 to win 1u
49ers-Rams under 50,5 @-110 to win 1u

Expect a bounce back game by the Rams in a must-win play after Packers and Cowboys won. Tough divisional-game but even without Woods the Rams are the far better team and the 49ers couldn't beat the Murray-DeHopkins-less Cardinals, so I can't imagine them beating the Rams.
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Week 10: 4-4 +0,63u

After ten weeks: Total 36-28 +11,32u

Dogs ATS 13-5 +7,93u
Favs ATS 10-11+0,8u
Favs ML 1-0 +2,0u
Parlays 4-6 -0,5u
Totals 8-5 +1,34
Props: 0-1 -0,25u
 

caboto13

Well-Known Member
Dolphins -3,5 @-110 to win 1u
Bills -7 @-105 to win 2u
Lions +12 @-110 to win 1u
Saints +2,5 @100 to win 1u
 

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