NFC Championship: 49ers vs. Eagles Discussion Thread

Capaholic said:
As I said Monday, I snagged Philly -1.5

Still on it but these two teams are separated by next to nothing.

Both top 6 in Offense and Defense DVOA. Both slightly in the top half of Special Teams

They played 31st and 32nd rated schedules respectively.

Went with the home team and better QB, and per DVOA the #1 ground game in the league.

Going back to the cave.
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You, you stay out the damn cave. We need your expertise on this site.
 
2daBank said:
This is such a tough game to pick, I was really hoping it would get to niners +3 and make it easy on me as I’d take either with a fg. Dunno if I wanna pay the juice to put it there tho? As you said both played easy schedules, for me the fact I’ve seen majority of this niners team in plenty of big games vs good teams the last several playoffs does have some meaning: last week I really just went back to last year niners/Dallas game to tell me Dallas would struggle to score against that d. Don’t have such a great reference point for eagles offense vs this d, I think it safe to say both units are the best either has faced. Obviously Purdy isn’t as battle tested as most the team and Philly d easily the best pass defense he has seen. I think Philly will have a chance to hit bigger plays but I lean to niners run game having more success. Im bout to just flip a coin, lol.
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That’s a big thing regarding 9ers vs good teams. They’ve outplayed every opponent in 6 playoff games the last 2 playoff runs. They had two double digit 4th quarter collapses and won the other 4. I think looking at the schedules for these teams this year and trying to read into it one way or another is a waste.
 
Inspekdah said:
That’s a big thing regarding 9ers vs good teams. They’ve outplayed every opponent in 6 playoff games the last 2 playoff runs. They had two double digit 4th quarter collapses and won the other 4. I think looking at the schedules for these teams this year and trying to read into it one way or another is a waste.
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Agree. SOS is a good tool, but I don’t think you can look at either team and think their schedule gives you much. What’s that whole, “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” thing? I think the game has the makings of a really great one. GL to your guys
 
Capaholic said:
Agree. SOS is a good tool, but I don’t think you can look at either team and think their schedule gives you much. What’s that whole, “unstoppable force vs. immovable object” thing? I think the game has the makings of a really great one. GL to your guys
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Thank you. You too with your guys. Would love to run 19 back. Even though I wouldn’t be too confident in beating your guys.
 
dfresh said:
The key numbers despite all those cowboy pressures is 0 fumbles, 0 picks, 2 sacks. No matter how he throws % wise against eagle pressure, if Purdy manages it similarly the 49ers win.
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My man plays with fire and if Kyle can get him clean reads we move on. Cowboys were ready for the initial gimmick stuff.
 
Inspekdah said:
That’s a big thing regarding 9ers vs good teams. They’ve outplayed every opponent in 6 playoff games the last 2 playoff runs. They had two double digit 4th quarter collapses and won the other 4. I think looking at the schedules for these teams this year and trying to read into it one way or another is a waste.
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Let’s not forget Shanahan as OC blowing a 28-3 lead. He’s looking more like Henry Winkler than Lombardi in the big games.
 
KC vs Philly SB Fitty Seven

Philly 1st half team total over 10.5 sure looks tasty. I’m thinking Philly is going to pass to open up the run immediately. Their advantage is in the passing game vs SF’s 20th ranked pass D. For me, more things point towards a Philly win than SF.
 
Pasting over.

Eagles.

Hitting on a few of the biggest pieces for me. QB matchup largely favors the Eagles. Hurts has proven himself and that his decision making is sound. Factoring in the Niners pass rush, mobility and a great OL helps offset which the Eagles both have. Purdy Purdy Purdy...how will he stack up against the best pass rush in the NFL? There is nothing that tells me to put faith in this and while there were a few drives he looked 'ok' versus the Cowboys, it wasn't like he put on a clinic and holding a Niners ticket that game I was super nervous. Sticking with that data here, Eagles have a big advantage in the QB and ability to get to QB. Beyond the QB on offense, each team does have a strong run game (factoring in Hurts) and realistically the receiving core is on par. I won't say Hurts is a significantly better passer than Purdy, but an edge.

On the defensive side of the ball the Niners have the edge in run defense by a fair margin but the Eagles signing of Joseph and Suh has improved what was once a weakness plus Jordan Davis got healthy. Then McCaffrey had the calf issue which can linger so I'm not sitting here thinking either team gonna run the ball but with Shanahan the logic for me is the Niners have a better chance to have success but not a slam dunk. Kittle should have success but the Niners just have too many options in a game plan to guess at this point.

HC, obvisously edge to Shanahan. As far as strength of schedule and competition. Both teams played trash.

So, why bullish on the Eagles for me? I do think the Niners can be exploited in the passing game. Eagles OL is easily top 3, Hurts can scramble and then you have Brown-Smith-Goedert. We saw a bit of this in the Seattle game with Metcalf but that team has a swiss cheese defense. Flip side, call it eyeball test in combination with data but Purdy worries me. Kid runs in circles, throws it up, and so far has been lucky. This Eagles pass rush and defensive backfield is no fucking joke. A turnover or 2 can turn this game upside down fast.
 
Up to +3 -120

Win or lose, thank you Eagles bettors, worst case is losing less vig than buying it to 3
 
Is Mitchell playing? He broke the Cowboys will in that second half. If he’s out that’s a big loss and CMC will need to have 30+ touches.
 
Inspekdah said:
Is Mitchell playing? He broke the Cowboys will in that second half. If he’s out that’s a big loss and CMC will need to have 30+ touches.
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It is expected that he will play. Gamesmanship from Kyle IMO. Even if he doesn’t Jordan Mason is a very talented back who can play that bruiser role.
 
2daBank said:
This is such a tough game to pick, I was really hoping it would get to niners +3 and make it easy on me as I’d take either with a fg. Dunno if I wanna pay the juice to put it there tho? As you said both played easy schedules, for me the fact I’ve seen majority of this niners team in plenty of big games vs good teams the last several playoffs does have some meaning: last week I really just went back to last year niners/Dallas game to tell me Dallas would struggle to score against that d. Don’t have such a great reference point for eagles offense vs this d, I think it safe to say both units are the best either has faced. Obviously Purdy isn’t as battle tested as most the team and Philly d easily the best pass defense he has seen. I think Philly will have a chance to hit bigger plays but I lean to niners run game having more success. Im bout to just flip a coin, lol.
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I See +3 -120 Out There This A.M @pressitup
 
dfresh said:
It is expected that he will play. Gamesmanship from Kyle IMO. Even if he doesn’t Jordan Mason is a very talented back who can play that bruiser role.
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Like what we saw from Mason this season but Mitchell is so fast and never ever fumbles.
 
25.5 -110 on FD.

Not a prop guy but Debo should get 7-8 rushes and maybe a behind the LOS screen or two.

31.5 -117 on MGM.
 
Deebo and CMC props should cook in the 1h

Then Kittle props in the 2h if you get to bet live

Iggs will likely try to take away the short spread game early which is fine but will likely open up the TE routes as the game goes on

First X and O analysis of the year
 
My hesitancy to further back the 9ers beyond the futures in place has me thinking the Eagles are the right side. It pains me to type this. Feels like a great game awaits but maybe my disdain for the Iggles is clouding my vision. Good luck today fellas.
 
wiseplayer said:
KC vs Philly SB Fitty Seven

Philly 1st half team total over 10.5 sure looks tasty. I’m thinking Philly is going to pass to open up the run immediately. Their advantage is in the passing game vs SF’s 20th ranked pass D. For me, more things point towards a Philly win than SF.
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As good as this forum is, we should know rookie QB’s in this spot is not good.
We can say injuries caused the blowout. No, getting punched in the mouth by being dominated at the LOS caused the blowout. Complete domination by being outphysicaled at the LOS won this game. Philly was the much better team period.
 
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How about it @KJ you thought it was ludicrous that I said Eagles D line was just as good? What happened to that top ranked D!? Good talk.
 
Gandolf said:
Is that official? Report I saw was they may try to do a repair of existing ligament instead of a full blown Tommy John reconstruction. Difference between back in six months and a lost season.
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yes he's looking at second opinions
 
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