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NBA Opening Night 10/31

Lunchbox

out to lunch
Whats up guys!! See a lot of names I know from covers. Decided to finally join today so I might as well post my plays


2 likely plays tonight...havent locked them in yet. Hoping for 5 on both.

MIAMI -5/5.5 (vs Bulls)

Have you ever seen the defending champs getting their rings at home opening night on national TV be such an unpopular play?? Actually yes, the Steelers on opening night against the sexy trendy bandwagon Dolphins. And just like the Steelers I am nervous about playing on the team I bet against in the previous postseason (and both losses were aided by poor officiating...see the similarities??). With the addition of Ben Wallace the Bulls are everyones favorite sleeper pick. They played Miami tough last year and at 2-2 had some thinking they could pull the upset. I like the Bulls this year and think they can live up to the expectations better than the Phins have, but early on it might be a struggle with all the new faces. Its not easy to have everyone come together right away. My memory of Wallace from the playoffs last year was the fact that Detroit was essentially playing 4 on 5 when on offense, enabling Shaq to basically be an extra defender to play centerfield/safety. How are the Baby Bulls going to adapt with him at the O end?? I think its going to slow them down and you could see the Bulls having a flat game scoring wise. Too many new faces for the Bulls and too many buyers. People who know my style of handicapping know I look for unpopular home teams and particularly unpopular faves. Hard to fully believe the defending champs aren't the popular play, but I had a hard time believing that with PIT week 1 as well. Generally speaking, I am looking to find spots to fade Miami and play on the Bulls...but not tonight. Wade being banged up and tired has been overhyped, and questions about Miami being hungry is just another plus for Bulls backers playing the revenge card (which I think is easier to serve at home). But I think tonight is the one night where the Heat will give the big effort, come out of the gates on a high note. Shaq is notorious for taking nights off and crusing at times during the reg season, but opening night on nat tv getting rings against a team you eliminated is hardly the night for the Heat to be 'pacing' themselves. I think the Heat send a statement to the league that last year was no fluke (which will set up some nice fades in the near future)

LAKERS +4.5/5 (vs Suns)

Unpopular home dog and with PHX being hyped as this years favorite to win it all why wouldnt most like PHX here. They prevailed against the Lakers last year and Kobe is banged up and might not even play (yeah right)...I'd be shocked if Kobe doesnt play against the team that knocked him out of the playoffs last year...especially with there being some bad blood during the series (raja bell) Marion is more of an injury concern from what I read and hear than Kobe is. Not to mention that PHX has a somewhat new look with Amare back and some other new faces like Jumaine Jones and no Tim Thomas. Between no Thomas, and working amare and kurt thomas back in, this phx team is more of a new look from last years playoffs than most realize. Maybe long term and for the playoffs they will be better...but for opening night on the road against Kobe and a Laker team looking for home revenge?? I wouldnt be surprised if PHX started slow this year...same with the Bulls.

Bottom line, I like taking both unpopular home teams on opening night....Im getting Phil Jackson and Pat Riley, who each have the best player on the floor, at home on opening night. Coaching may be a factor here as nerves can creep in opening night. ONe thing I know for sure, Pat and Phil will have their teams fired up to set the tone for the season..especially at home. They know how much confidence plays a role. The Heat will have their stretches of looking like they dont care, but Pat will make sure they care tonight...getting that first win at home is very important. Same with Phil and Kobe...beating phx opening night at home would be a huge boost and give a young team tons of confidence...while phx losing at lakers opening night wouldnt make everyone picking them to win it all change their minds...its opening night on the road and theres revenge and marion was banged up and its was amare's first game back..no bigge. I can see the talk already.

:drinking:
 
Welcome to the site Lunchbox, it's great that you signed up. I disagree with both of your plays, but from how you're attacking the games in your write-ups, I can't fault you for liking them. You make solid points and I have a hard time arguing them.

The main thing I think that will hurt Miami tonight is guard depth and at power forward, and there isn't much there at the 3, 4, 5 for LAL. Should be fun to watch.
 
for some reason im really liking the heat...(only followed nba post season last year so that may be my bias...but thats a lot of points)
 
Well, that was an awful pick on the Heat...and combined with having +5 on the lakers its not such a great start. This is probably not wise but I added more to the Lakers at 8...3 plays tonight

LAKERS +8 (-105)
 
Lunch, even thou my handle has been "on", I havent been present, so this is the first time I've seen you since you joined up.

Welcome aboard:cheers:
 
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