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NBA Elimination Game Totals: 2022 Playoffs

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Playoff basketball brings the the table sudden-death basketball, which is a scenario perfect for the manifestation of Under results - tight players executing deliberate plays isn't the ground upon which liberal scoring is made.

*An elimination game is when at least 1 team faces an end to their post season should they lose the game concerned straight-up.

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Since keeping records (based on opening lines) starting with the 03-04 post season, the stats I've accumulated for all Elimination games total results are as follows
(please note: due to the fact that 2020's playoff games all took place at a single venue which thereby eliminated home court advantage and thus the effect such would otherwise normally exert on the totals outcome of any given elimination game, I have excluded those results from the data base that follows below)...


Overall

All Elimination Games: U/O 185-154-5

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O _77-85-2
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 108-69-3


1st Round of playoffs


All Elimination Games: U/O 104-81-2

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 54-47-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 50-34-1


2nd Round & onwards of playoffs


All Elimination Games: U/O 81-73-3

Elimination Games being game 4 or 5 of a Series: U/O 23-38-1
Elimination Games being game 6 or 7 of a Series: U/O 58-35-2

Clearly the prime spots to take Unders are in a game 6 or 7 taking place during the 2nd round or beyond (a losing rate of only 36.84%), a time when both teams already have a series win under their belts and have both won at least 2 games in the current series.

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The results below will only be integrated with the results noted above at the end of the current post season.

21-22 Elimination game results


Round 1


BOS@BRK - Game 4: Over
TOR@PHI - Game 5: Under
ATL@MIA - Game 5: Under
CHC@MIL - Game 5: Under
DEN@GDS - Game 5: Under
PHI@TOR - Game 6: Over
PHX@NOR - Game 6: Over
DAL@UTH - Game 6: Under
MEM@MIN - Game 6: Under


Round 2


GDS@MEM - Game 5: Over
MIA@PHI - Game 6: Under
PHX@DAL - Game 6: Under
BOS@MIL - Game 6: Under
MEM@GDS - Game 6: Under
MIL@BOS - Game 7: Under
DAL@PHX - Game 7: Over


Round 3


GDS@DAL - Game 4:
MIA@BOS - Game 6:


Round 4
 
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KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Worth noting that all the play-in games went under too. They are elimination games as well...at least the second ones were.
Yeah in those it would be 4-0 this year, not sure about the last couple years
 

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
Just my .02 as a neutral observer

Mem-Min - simple observation going into game 6:

MEM has won 3 games SU = all Under
MIN has won 2 games SU = both Over

In the 3 games MIN has scored at least 100 pts, MEM hasn't scored less than 111 pts.

So the key Q I'd ask myself if I was betting this total (which I'm not) would be: do I see MIN get 110+? if the is answer yes then to me there's 218-220 pts right there, close enough to the line that there goes any thought of betting Under from my pov. This whole series has been, if MIN get theirs then it goes Over, if they don't it goes Under. Nothing stops MEM getting theirs, because MIN's D isn't good enough.

The only way I'd see this game going Under with MIN scoring north of 110 would be, after 3 straight wins plus a "winning effort" that wasn't rewarded (their 1 pt G4 loss), that MEM (sans Adams) after spending all that energy to produce those results has a "game off" (a 'fuel tank recharge' game) in preparation for having the energy to bring the kitchen sink @home in a game 7. I've seen that kind of scenario play out happen often enough to not be able to rule it out here (MIN win a blowout, something like 118-99). But if MEM shows serious intent to end the series here (should be obvious by midway through the 2Q re live betting issues), then where MIN's scoring goes so the total goes. Has whole series, same will apply here.
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Just my .02 as a neutral observer

Mem-Min - simple observation going into game 6:

MEM has won 3 games SU = all Under
MIN has won 2 games SU = both Over

In the 3 games MIN has scored at least 100 pts, MEM hasn't scored less than 111 pts.

So the key Q I'd ask myself if I was betting this total (which I'm not) would be: do I see MIN get 110+? if the is answer yes then to me there's 218-220 pts right there, close enough to the line that there goes any thought of betting Under from my pov. This whole series has been, if MIN get theirs then it goes Over, if they don't it goes Under. Nothing stops MEM getting theirs, because MIN's D isn't good enough.

The only way I'd see this game going Under with MIN scoring north of 110 would be, after 3 straight wins plus a "winning effort" that wasn't rewarded (their 1 pt G4 loss), that MEM (sans Adams) after spending all that energy to produce those results has a "game off" (a 'fuel tank recharge' game) in preparation for having the energy to bring the kitchen sink @home in a game 7. I've seen that kind of scenario play out happen often enough to not be able to rule it out here (MIN win a blowout, something like 118-99). But if MEM shows serious intent to end the series here (should be obvious by midway through the 2Q re live betting issues), then where MIN's scoring goes so the total goes. Has whole series, same will apply here.

i dont have the guts to play under in this matchup anyways, you make some really good points. live kinda feels like way to go in this game on side or total, unless ya like wolves i guess, im sure at some point there be a chance to get some points or plus money with grizz as they making a habit of falling behind.
 

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
IMO at least one G7 will go Over. I don't like the fact that the strongest teams both have HCA and are both off SU losses for these coming games.

Bos/Mil
- road team has scored 101, 86, 101, 116, 110 & 108 in this series. Only sub-100 pt total was off a SU win (road team here off a SU loss).
Some series just have themes/habits/rhythms that two teams get into (for whatever reason) and the theme for this series has been that the road team has consistently gotten theirs on the scoreboard. Unders have thus come when the home team hasn't gotten theirs, and Overs have come when the home team has. Which leads to the fact that, besides G1 when Boston started the series cold and managed only 89 pts, in their 2 home games since they've managed 107 & 109 pt totals. With a line currently at 208.5, there's little room to win if both teams break the 100 pt barrier (as the aforementioned themes suggest they will). If Under is delivered here, for me it'll be because Boston delivers a blowout a la G2 (which went Under) Also note, Boston's prior home total lines have been 218.5, 215.5 & 211.5. This line is now a full 10 pts short of G1's line. What's gone before has developed a premium on it happening again.

Phx/Mavs
I look at these two team sans any stats, and I just see the ability for any particular quarter's scoring to be of such a nature that almost alone it could destroy an Under bet, a reality exacerbated by the venue. The total is 8 pts less than the last time they played in PHX, just 2 games ago. Suns have scored 121, 129 & 110 pts at home this series. They can match their worst home effort from previously in this series and the Mavs won't even need to top 100 for Over to cash. Only Overs to pay out in this series? Came in 2 Suns home games.

My .02 after the trends have paid out 5-0 since the start of the 2nd Round? tread carefully. I'd personally stick with live betting with my expectations. I'd be surprised if at least 1 Fave didn't cover ATS. Typically in the situations present here (esp. the Suns one, where the best team is off a huge road loss and now faces sudden-death elimination @home) is at least one home team wins by 8-12 pts (enough to cover ATS in either game).
 
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M.W.

Parties like it's 1979
IMO at least one G7 will go Over. I don't like the fact that the strongest teams both have HCA and are both off SU losses for these coming games.

Bos/Mil
- road team has scored 101, 86, 101, 116, 110 & 108 in this series. Only sub-100 pt total was off a SU win (road team here off a SU loss).
Some series just have themes/habits/rhythms that two teams get into (for whatever reason) and the theme for this series has been that the road team has consistently gotten theirs on the scoreboard. Unders have thus come when the home team hasn't gotten theirs, and Overs have come when the home team has. Which leads to the fact that, besides G1 when Boston started the series cold and managed only 89 pts, in their 2 home games since they've managed 107 & 109 pt totals. With a line currently at 208.5, there's little room to win if both teams break the 100 pt barrier (as the aforementioned themes suggest they will). If Under is delivered here, for me it'll be because Boston delivers a blowout a la G2 (which went Under) Also note, Boston's prior home total lines have been 218.5, 215.5 & 211.5. This line is now a full 10 pts short of G1's line.
And it's dropped further to 207.
 

M.W.

Parties like it's 1979
IMO at least one G7 will go Over. I don't like the fact that the strongest teams both have HCA and are both off SU losses for these coming games.

Bos/Mil
- road team has scored 101, 86, 101, 116, 110 & 108 in this series. Only sub-100 pt total was off a SU win (road team here off a SU loss).
Some series just have themes/habits/rhythms that two teams get into (for whatever reason) and the theme for this series has been that the road team has consistently gotten theirs on the scoreboard. Unders have thus come when the home team hasn't gotten theirs, and Overs have come when the home team has. Which leads to the fact that, besides G1 when Boston started the series cold and managed only 89 pts, in their 2 home games since they've managed 107 & 109 pt totals. With a line currently at 208.5, there's little room to win if both teams break the 100 pt barrier (as the aforementioned themes suggest they will). If Under is delivered here, for me it'll be because Boston delivers a blowout a la G2 (which went Under) Also note, Boston's prior home total lines have been 218.5, 215.5 & 211.5. This line is now a full 10 pts short of G1's line. What's gone before has developed a premium on it happening again.

Phx/Mavs
I look at these two team sans any stats, and I just see the ability for any particular quarter's scoring to be of such a nature that almost alone it could destroy an Under bet, a reality exacerbated by the venue. The total is 8 pts less than the last time they played in PHX, just 2 games ago. Suns have scored 121, 129 & 110 pts at home this series. They can match their worst home effort from previously in this series and the Mavs won't even need to top 100 for Over to cash. Only Overs to pay out in this series? Came in 2 Suns home games.

My .02 after the trends have paid out 5-0 since the start of the 2nd Round? tread carefully. I'd personally stick with live betting iwith my expectations. I'd be surprised if at least 1 Fave didn't cover ATS. Typically in the situations present here (esp. the Suns one, where the best team is off a huge road loss and now faces sudden-death elimination @home) is at least one home team wins by 8-12 pts (enough to cover ATS in either game).
I played Suns -10.5 +198
 

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