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MLB Wednesday 10/27

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
YTD +7995
2-0 last

Going to Montreal Thursday to visit wife's parents and do some work on the apartments. I should be able to post MLB Friday and Saturday but Sunday's post will be late as we leave at 6 am to come back. I will probably post around 5 or 6 for Sunday night's game.

Atlanta +2 1/2 -280 x50 - Fried is more trustworthy than Urquidy. Whoa.... deja vu. Fried has only allowed more than 3 runs twice in his last 16 starts. Urquidy has allowed 15 runs (5 of those homeruns) in his last 20 innings of work (4 starts). That's 1 homerun every 4 innings. Not good. Atlanta can relax and play loose as they took the home field advantage away from Houston no matter what happens tonight with their win last night. If the Braves win outright tonight, and they can, the Astros are really hurting. All they will have left to start is a very hittable Garcia or a very questionable Greinke. McCullers is out and Dusty threw Odorizzi last night. True, Atlanta lost Morton for the series but they still have a very capable Anderson to start at home and even Chavez who they almost used last night but wisely didn't.

Atlanta/Houston over 7 -220 x50 - I really don't like this bet but I am making it for 5 reasons. 1) Tom Hallion behind the plate. He has a 10+ runs scored average when he calls balls and strikes. 2) Tom Hallion behind the plate. He also has a 19-6 record for the home team winning when he is behind the plate. That is a serious lean in favor of the home team and this over could protect the Atlanta side + runs bet if Fried gets seriously frustrated and starts throwing at Hallion instead of the strike zone. 3) 3-3 is not hard to get with these two offenses and Atlanta could do the heavy lifting against Urquidy. 4) As solid as Fried is it's not beyond the realm of possibility Houston breaks out. (especially if Hallion helps them) 5) If the Braves score 3 runs, and they should, I can't do worse than a 1-1 split and I will take that despite the juice.

Don't bet a lot on Atlanta tonight without runs. 76% of the time the home team wins with Hallion back there. That's incredible. GL
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Wire, if they play this series like every other postseason series, the HP ump tonight will be someone that wasn't on the field last night. The rotation which usually sends the 1B ump behind the plate in the next game during the season gets tweaked in the postseason (or it has for a few years now). The 1B ump gets the next game off then goes behind the plate the following game. In this case Hallion will be there in game 3. We may not now who is there tonight until close to game time but I'll be watching Twitter periodically to see if someone finds out early.

Good news for over is there really isn't a massive over guy of the 6 we already know, so odds are tonight could get one. Posted the stuff yesterday in the discussion thread but will pop in here if anything shows up early about the game tonight.

Well done last night!
 

Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
Thanks Inzane. Always appreciated. GL

Really great Info KJ. I had no idea that was the case. I even saw Hallion listed where I get my game stats and then checked to make sure he was the first base ump last night. Glad you taught this old dog there are new MLB tricks out there. Doesn't really change my bet regardless of ump but I can safely remove the warning about people being careful about betting Atlanta big tonight because of him. Funny thing is they can bet the shit out of Atlanta Saturday since game 3 with Hallion will be played in Atlanta. I find that very funny for some reason. Thanks GL :)
 
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Wiretowire

Well-Known Member
Thanks KJ. Kulpa is 8+ runs per game which between that, Urquidy, and adding Houston offense should be good enough for 8 runs to get over the 7 I bet. GL
 

wiseplayer

Well-Known Member
Hey Wire, if Atlanta scores 3 and Houston scores 3, your Over 7 bet can't lose. It might have taken me most of today to do the math but I know I got this 1 right! Lol. GL my friend
 

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