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MLB Tuesday 10/18


Well-Known Member
YTD +7845
1-0 last - Settling in pretty good now. Oops, I shouldn't have said that. :rofl:

Thanks Tim. GL

All x50 each

Atlanta +2 1/2 -220 - Morton has been very solid allowing only 19 runs in his last 54 innings. He will walk a batter or two but nothing out of control. One interesting thing about Buehler that I saw is that he hasn't pitched well at home recently. In his last 4 home starts, in 18 innings of work, he has allowed 24 hits, 17 runs, and 5 home runs at least 1 in each home start. It happens more often than you think that a pitcher has more success on the road than at home and I have seen a ton of reasons for that but I won't speculate why here. Suffice it to say if there is one or two tough home starts that's probably a fluke but 4 in a row is enough to be considered a trend. Wouldn't surprise me if Atlanta wins outright but the plus runs will make this safer. I can tell you that the books have made this LA ML -180 purely on the LA name, Buehler's name, and LA being home. But I don't see it. By capping these two teams LA should not be more than -130. Morton should keep the Braves close enough to cash this.

As for a total, I am going to pass because Morton has been very solid for a long time now. The Dodger bats should produce more runs but I think the heavy lifting would come from Atlanta. Or should I say most fans will probably be surprised at how well Atlanta scores tonight. If you must bet a total buy a half run off and go over 7. I could be completely full of shit and LA scores 8 runs or more but it doesn't cap that way. A 6-2 final wins the over as does a 4-4.

Houston +2 1/2 -220 - Greinke hasn't been great but he is a helluva lot better than Pivetta. I know Boston just abused Houston last night but even the books know Greinke is better, or should I say can be better than Pivetta as evidenced by Boston being favored by only -120. -130 is what is given to every home team just for being at home. Now some of Greinke is his name because he has struggled this year but I know Pivetta and he is a gas can more often than someone who shuts down the opposition. I don't really like Houston without the runs but they could jump out early and never look back. ML +110 is a decent play but again take the runs to be safe.

Houston/Boston over 8 -260 - Buying off a full run and a half. This is really a hedge play against the side because three things could happen. Houston could jump on Pivetta as I think they will and I win both bets. Greinke could have another off night and the total kinda saves the side. Boston could hit yet another fucking grand slam and then I will be glad I hold an over ticket. We also have to keep in mind both bullpens have been used a lot in this series so late scoring could save an over.

And again for those of you that faint at the sight of big odds losing a -260 and winning a -220 results in just a loss of -80 on a $50 bet. So damn the odds, go have some fun.


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