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ML Dog Week 12 Edition

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
If I counted right, there were 16 upsets Saturday. Eight dogged between 1 to 4.5 points. Five dogged from 5 to 9.5. Two from 10-17.5 and just one 18-up which obviously was an awesome one with Kansas.

I was disappointed with my picks and the approach last week, won two, but every other one didn't cover ATS which always bothers me a lot.

There are only TWO regular seasons weeks left! TWO! Let's put in some work.

Edit, I forgot the weeknight games last week. There were two more upsets then, Ohio as a 5 to 9.5 pt dog and and NIU as a 1-4.5 pt dog.
 
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JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
So a couple weeks ago like 2 or 3 +1000 plus dogs hit...last week of course there was KU. Which one(s) hit this week?

Sparty?
Texas State?
Razorbacks?
UConn? (<=nope!)
Temple?
KU again?
South Alabama?
New Mexico?

:popcorn:
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
As for tonight, Eastern Michigan at home would appear good candidate and are a decent +175/180

They were upset themselves last week vs Ohio. Prior to that EM beat Miami Oh and Toledo as dogs. Western Michigan has been upset as a favorite 3x in MAC play and nearly got beat by Akron last week.

WM is an underachieving favorite:

-7 at Buffalo = push
-12.5 vs Ball St = lost by 25
-1.5 at Toledo = lost by 19
-9 vs CMich = lost by 12
-25 vs Akron = won by 5

The only game WM looked really good was their 33 pt win over Kent.

Eastern Michigan is just 3-3 straight up vs MAC, but all 3 of their losses were one score games (7, 7, 8).

Eastern has actually beat them straight up as underdogs the last two years! The two prior losses in 2018 and 2017 were both by 3 points each, one in OT.

Favoring Western Mich on the road really makes no sense. It is lining them on who they should be, not who they actually are.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Other than Eastern Michigan it is going to be hard to feel great about Ohio or Bowling Green after watching the Toledo-BG game last week.

Is BG good enough for a bounce back, was Toledo just a bad matchup (power run very good MAC D)? Even with last week's result BG is still 7-3 ATS this year proving they can play better than expectations. Not like I would bet on this pattern alone, however, looking at the ATS log, BG has alternated ATS loss with ATS win with ATS loss for 5 weeks now. Perhaps that does show they do bounce back? Does that back and forth loss-win-loss-win-loss-? imply they are resilient and up for a game here? Lost to Akron, came back following week and covered vs NIU. Lost bad vs Eastern Michigan, came back the following week and beat Buffalo straight up. Lost bad last week to Toledo, this week?

Miami Ohio does have the Kent game on deck which will decide the East Division winner.

Ohio has covered 5 of their last 6 with 2 straight upset wins! Their only spread loss could've been a win as they kicked a FG from the 1 or 2 when a TD would've meant the cover. Ohio has figured it out and turned around their season. Toledo on the other hand really flexed their muscles last week crushing Bowling Green. Ohio is so enticing to back based on their MAC play, yet we know what Toledo is capable of when they bring A game. Problem for them is they are wildly inconsistent and actually have been upset 4x this season, 3x in MAC play.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Wednesday has two short dogs, CMich at Ball and Buffalo hosting NIU.

I don't know about anyone else, I never play ML on these kinds of lines. The 1 or 1.5 points to me is WAY more valuable than whatever the couple cents are on the ML. If that team loses by 1 but would've covered with a +1.5 line or pushed with a +1 and I lost because I took them on the ML I'd be beyond pissed. One of my friends says on games like these "might as well just play the ML there". Not me.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Duke has lost 11 consecutive ACC games. They have lost 14 of their last 15 ACC games and gone just 4-20 vs ACC the last 3 years! Can't think of many (any) reasons to ML Duke.

Reasons to fade Louisville? Maybe. Off their most dominating FBS game of the season 41-3 vs Syracuse and rivalry game vs UK on deck.

Is that enough? Duke QB situation uncertain. Duke struggles to score points. Duke D gives up big plays like it's their job.
 
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s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Friday options?

It does not look like Southern Miss is one of them though. As bad as their O is, and it is very very very bad, their D is better than the final scores. Pretty admirable effort last week limiting UTSA to 27 points, held them to 17 pts into the 4th Q and then a barrage of turnovers allowed UTSA to win by 10. Before that 38 points vs North Texas looks bad, right. Well, NT scored 2 fumble return TDs!! They allowed 35 to MTSU looks bad right? MTSU scored 3 non-offensive TDs (blk'd punt, fumble return and INT return)!! UAB scored 34, they had a blk'd punt ret TD! Allowed 26 to UTEP...you guessed it! UTEP got a fumble ret TD and a safety!! Rice is the only CUSA team that didn't score on D or ST vs them. So the PPG allowed is misleading, but that just speaks to how bad their O is, the turnovers, the futility, the injured QBs. And now Frank Gore is injured who they started at wildcat QB last week. The "QB" actually WR who came in at QB after Gore got hurt turned the ball over on 3 consecutive drives. If there is a case of Southern Miss to win, let's hear what you got!

Memphis? Decent candidate. They do some things well. Henigan has had a really good first season. They convert 3rd downs really well The running game isn't as good as it has been recent years. They even have a pretty decent run D, 3.68 allowed, just about a tenth of a yard per carry behind Cincinnati for reference. This team just beat SMU 2 weeks ago. They also pulled upset vs Miss State (the game had some oddities) and nearly pulled upset at Tulsa (game was misleading the other way). So they can be a competitive bunch. Memphis led by 3 TDs in the 2nd H last year vs Houston as 5 pt home dog, won by 3. Memphis has actually won 5 straight in the series and the two UH won before that were 1 and 4 point games! Houston is one of those kind of squirrelly teams. Exhibit A, 1st H vs Temple last week. Exhibit B, 2nd H vs ECU. They haven't been upset as favorites this year, but did only beat Navy by 8 and ECU by 7 in OT. Houston DL is good with pressure and penetration, but note the Houston OL on the other side is kinda bad. Temple of all teams had 12 TFLs on them last week (double the avg Temple usually gets). SMU had 8 (they average 6 per game), ECU had 13 TFLs vs UH (again double the per game avg ECU D has vs all other opponents). This is probably the most vulnerable area on the UH team. Houston is sacked almost 3 times a game, which ranks in the 90s nationally

Arizona might look appealing. They have covered 4 straight, led 13-0 Washington at HT, outscored USC 20-6 in the 2nd H, beat a covid depleted Cal team in a close one on the scoreboard, but they did dominate on the stat sheet (turnovers hurt them), then they played a steam rolling Utah team better and closer than anyone could've expected, probably even coaches on the Arizona staff! They can struggle on O, but their D is a full 10 ppg better this year over last year (Don Brown). Washington State has been one of the better teams since late September on, they covered 6 straight until last week's loss or push at Oregon. Not the high flying explosive pass Os of the past, they are fairly balanced O now and the D, they give up yards, but typcially clamp down in the RZ. So Zona might be able to move it on them. At the end of the day, it will probably be tough to count on them to win as Wazzou isn't bad. Arizona would need to protect the ball - something they have struggled with (-14) and something Wazzou D has been good at (+5 ratio, 22 gained) and Arizona would need to be really good scoring TDs in the RZ (they are worst RZ O in PAC 12) and Wazzou D is about the league's best RZ D. With those two critical variables known, it's hard to count on them to win this game.

Air Force is only +2 or so. AF D looks pretty good, but they have played a lot of conventional, average and run-based Os. Nevada is different and I don't know how AF would matchup there. AF failed pretty badly vs Utah State, but USU poses a run threat that Nevada doesn't so AF can likely have a different gameplan. I don't know, it's only +2 I am not money lining that anyway.

UNLV - hey the Rebels have won two straight! Would figure they make some mistakes and turnovers vs San Diego State D and that should determine the game. Vs an average type D or bad D, UNLV can have some success, but tall order vs SD St D. SD St's normally sub-par O should like going against UNLV D. Aztecs haven't covered in 3 weeks and only covered 1 of last 4 so they are failing expectations. UNLV has some fight which is good to see ,but that D vs this O, I'm not normally a fan of SD St O, but UNLV gave up over 5ypc vs NMex and over 6 ypc vs San Jose. They will probably be in trouble here.

So that takes us through Friday. I don't know if I can run down the entire Saturday schedule or not.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Not a dog but what you just mentioned is why I'll be on SDSU's team total, they are certainly in a buy low situation.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Moral of the story, to me, Memphis looks like the best candidate on the week night games.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
One thing that might matter, you'd hope not, but Memphis is having some FG kicking problems. Think the HC said something about that played a role in their decision to go for 2 last week in OT. Memphis has only made 1 of it's last 6 FGs dating back to the Tulsa game! They've also missed 2 xpts in that span. So have to acknowledge the good with the bad, that could end up mattering.
 

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
One thing that might matter, you'd hope not, but Memphis is having some FG kicking problems. Think the HC said something about that played a role in their decision to go for 2 last week in OT. Memphis has only made 1 of it's last 6 FGs dating back to the Tulsa game! They've also missed 2 xpts in that span. So have to acknowledge the good with the bad, that could end up mattering.
Yeah, I was wondering if that was why they went for two... makes sense now...I guess...

To be honest, as a live dog...I kinda like that the team will be more aggressive (i.e. going for more 4th downs than kicking FG's)

That is just me though.

Obviously late in a close game, you'd rather have a kicker ready to go.
 
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KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Yeah, I was wondering if that was why they went for two... makes sense now...I guess...

To be honest, as a live dog...I kinda like that the team will be more aggressive (i.e. going for more 4th downs than kicking FG's)

That is just me though.

Obviously late in a close game, you'd rather have a kicker ready to go.
Oh it's not just you. Love on 3rd n 5 when they know they've got two plays to pick it up
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Here's the Saturday home dogs, in order they printed from rotation:

Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii

Akron is a rivalry game with Kent who are only 15 minutes apart. Akron has been quite competitive the last 2 games. Fumbled going in for what would've been the go-ahead TD in the final minute as a 20pt home dog vs Ball State losing by 6 and then had the lead at Western Mich with 2min left in the game as 25 pt road dog losing by 5. They are doing it behind 638y passing 68.9% and a 4-0 ratio from Gibson the last two. They ran for over 200 a few weeks back vs Buffalo so they can be capable there too. What Akron is not capable of, defense. But Kent is awful on defense too. MAC games only: Kent scoring D, last (41.7), Akron 3rd to last (34.8). Kent total D, last (523 ypg), Akron 3rd to last (456 ypg). Kent run D, 9th (199ypg), Akron is last (256ypg). Kent pass D in yards, last (324ypg), Akron is best! (teams just run on them)(200ypg). Opponent FDs, Kent is last (allows 29.7), Akron is second worst (24.2). 3rd Down conversions, Akron is last (52.7%), but Kent is 3rd to last (46.2%). So the numbers say it and watching the games says it too. Kent allowed 54 to CMich and 64 to WMich and 47 to NIU. I don't think Akron would do any worse. The difference is the Kent O is more consistent and sometimes easier to trust. I say sometimes, because they jumped out to a 14-0 lead at CMich then only scored 16 the rest of the game. There were some other examples of Kent O having WTF moments (just 27 total pts on BGSU - scored 31 1st H vs Buff, then just 17 2nd H and actually allowed Buff to come back and take lead)(WM outscored Kent 41-14 2nd H) . Kent has not been upset in MAC play, but is just 3-3 ATS. Akron did pull an upset vs BG as 14pt dog and is actually 4-2 ATS vs MAC. If playing Akron ML you'll need to know that Kent has won the last two 26-3 and 69-35. Last year they were tied 28-28 in the final minute of the 1st H. Kent did score to lead 35-28 HT and then obviously the 2nd H was all flashes. If Akron can maintain recent momentum offensively and if Kent D is as bad as it has been on a near weekly basis, this upset wouldn't be all that surprising.

I'll go down the other ones in upcoming posts.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii

Maryland finds ways to lose games, when they are even close enough to find a way to lose (like vs Penn St), other times they just get beat from the gun. Terps on 0-6 ATS slide and lost by 19 to MSU, lost by 18 to Minny, blown the F out vs OSU 49pts and Iowa 37pts. Last year they did pull two upsets as 20+ dogs (Minn and PennSt), but looking at a more normal year 2019 they were uncompetitive every big line game except 1 (MSU ssn finale). Michigan has beat them 8 straight and they are usually ugly. There is just no evidence that this Maryland team is capable. And this Michigan team isn't especially vulnerable either. Big sandwich spot with OSU on deck and all. Harbaugh Michigan teams have never lost the week before OSU as a favorite. Something very unexpected would have to happen for Maryland to do this.

Missouri has won two of their last 3 games. Not sure what to make of that as it was only vs Vandy and vs S Carolina off the big FL win. They held SC to just 250 TY. Gamecocks came into that game avg 342ypg, but then Vandy got 380 on them and Vandy avg just 288 in their other 9 games. Bazelak came back last week but he has been pretty up and down. The big story with Mizzou is RB Tyler Badie. He sits atop the SEC rushing leader list with 123.9ypg, leads the league with 20att per game, is #2 with 12 TDs and also 50 catches, 5 per game is top 10 in the league. Mizzou has only been dogged 3x this season, were pretty competitive vs UK in September, but their other two underdog roles vs aTm and UGA have been blowout losses. Florida on the other hand has been upset 3x in the SEC. Favored in 4 SEC games and lost 3 of them outright! Even in their one cover vs Vandy, that game was "just" 21-0 at HT and Vandy missed two FGs in the H and had a 73y drive end on a replay overturn of a TD catch. FL didn't cover that 1st H vs Vandy. Florida is just a bad football team. No other way to say it. I do think that last week might have been absolute rock bottom, meaning they can't be that bad again, can they? The O wasn't bad last week, not at all (717 yards). FL O was pretty embarrassing two weeks ago at SCar however and they weren't good vs UK either. So that is what it will come down to. Can Florida move the ball and score on O, or is there a repeat of the South Carolina game in the cards? Does the Mizzou D of most of 2021 show up here, or does last week give them a little momentum? Florida is very vulnerable. Can Missouri take advantage? A 4-7 FL team lost in 2017 at 7-6 Mizzou and a 10-3 FL team lost at home to a 8-5 Mizzou in 2018. FL has won the last two by 17 and 24 points. Kickoff temps in Columia 3:00 local look to be 56 degrees.
 
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s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii

No matter how you look at it, this Northwestern O is bad. But they've been very bad on the road and regular bad at home. This game is not a home dog - neutral site at Wrigley Field. I shouldn't have put it on this list, but I did so I'm just going to state that and keep going. So can't play the home dog angle and can't make a case for better O at home. NW did get 363 TY on Iowa 2 weeks ago, they also had 402 vs Rutgers. So maybe they know how to do some things, they just don't always do it? QB Marty has a 1-6 TD-INT ratio the last two games...Hilinski has a 0-1 ratio. I prefer Marty for his running, but man, you got to be better than that! I don't know...it's hard to have to count on this NW team to beat this Purdue team. One thing though, Purdue just got done upsetting Iowa, playing Wisconsin, upsetting Nebraska, upsetting Michigan State and then losing 31-59 at Ohio State. I couldn't blame them if they are running a little low on fuel right now. That is about what it is going to have to be for Northwestern to do this. NW D is bad, held Iowa in check, but who doesn't? NW D bad and that not a good recipe vs Purude. Like I said, about the only angle is all the big games Purdue has played and NW will have to care more and want this more. Purdue will have to lose it if you know what I'm saying.

Indiana, pretty much the worst team in the Big Ten. Last week vs Rutgers was rock bottom I'd figure. Looked like they might have some new life vs Maryland and then Michigan just stifled them, then the turnovers killed them last week (only outgained by 58 yards, lost by 35). Home finale for a lot of those super seniors. I don't know, I kind of feel like Indiana has a shot if they can somehow rekindle some of the old IU...maybe it's too far gone now? The Indiana that found an O with McCully at Maryland. The Indiana that played well enough to beat Michigan State minus some turnovers. The Indiana that led Cincinnati at HT. Water over the dam now right? But Minnesota is an occasional poor favorite. Lost vs Illinois as 14.5pt fav. Inexplicably lost vs BGSU as 31pt fav. When Minnesota is right however ,they do things like dominate bad teams in Mary and NW by combined 75-30 score. So what will it be? Another disappointing trophy game loss for Gophers and Axe game is on deck. Old Oaken Bucket on deck for IU, but can't think any game is more important that this one. Is there anything left of this team?
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii

Colorado had put 8+ good quarters of football together. No, not two full games, but from the 2nd Q of the Oregon game through the Oregon State game into the 1st H of the UCLA game, hey the Buffs are back! Then they weren't...UCLA outscored them 34-0 2nd H and it's back to same old CU. Is it? Washington definitely fits the definition of bad favorite. Team is a mess, coaching staff is a mess, can't sustain any execution in games (blew leads last two weeks were lucky to beat Stanford and Arizona shut them out in the 1st H), can't run (held under 100y rushing 4 of last 5 games and 5 of last 6), can't stop the run (allowed over 200y rushing 5 of last 6 (avg 230 allowed in that span). I really don't know who is the worst team here. At their worst, CU is worse. But at their bests that we've seen this year, I'd say CU is atleast on par if not actually better than UW at their respective bests. Need Nate Landman to play, said it last week and he was out again. He's still their leading tackler and has missed the last 3 games. If Landman plays, I'll get on board. This UW O is garbage to lay points on the road, in Boulder.

Stanford. Playing like the worst team in the PAC 12. Not sure Tanner McKee's status? His availability is of critical importance if Stanford has any shot at all. Withouth him other Standord QBs are just 25-45-179-1-3...that is under 4y per att and 55%! With Tanner McKee, it's quite a bit different 160-247-1916-14-5, that is almost 8y per att and 65%. Tree can't run no mater who is QB, but without him, they have ZERO offense. If he is out again I would not even consider Stanford in any way. Huge rivalry game, true. Cal will have everyone who had to miss the Arizona game back and it sounds like they are chomping at the bit to play a game. Before the Arizona loss and covid cluskerfuck, Cal played probably it's two most complete games of the year. As long as they didn't lose the mojo they were gaining and especially if McKee is out again, it is very hard to want to risk any money on Stanford. If McKee plays, in a rivalry game here...the O is going to have some life and maybe. But still, not sure it is all that appealing. Even with McKee, Stanford had lost 3 in a row straight up and 4-of-5. They have pulled two upsets this season, at USC and vs Oregon, so they can surprise when not expected to do so. Cal has been upset twice not counting the Arizona game, but those were all in the first part of the season, they had covered 3 straight prior to Arizona. Stanford won last year by blocking an xpt on Cal's would-be game tying TD to win by 1.

Oregon State secured bowl eligibility last week and I don't know if they will play better now (Smith thought they were playing tight while trying to win 6th game - hadn't been bowl eligible since 2013.) Oregon State lost back-to-back games before breaking through for win #6 last week vs Stanford. Oregon State is good at home. 4-0 SU and ATS at home this year. Upset Utah there. Won 2 of 3 straight up as dogs home last season, the one they didn't vs Arizona State. Sun Devils coming back to Corvallis for third straight year! ASU has only won 2 of last 8 in Corvallis. ASU has righted the ship some, but has done so vs other ships lost at sea in USC and UW. Only led USC 17-16 entering 4th Q and trailed UW 7-17 HT, scored 21 straight 4th Q points. They've been upset twice, most recently vs Wash St and earlier at BYU. Oregon State has pulled 2 upsets in just 3 underdog roles. ASU can be a tough matchup, a couple things that have hurt them this year continue to be problems. 1) penalties 8.7pg for 87 yards and 2) turnovers -3 ratio, -20 lost is tied with Arizona for worst PAC12. Beavers can hold their own Offensively 34ppg 3rd best PAC12, rush O (#8 ncaa 5.47ypc), a pass game that can make big plays (8.3y per att #2 PAC12), 3rd down O 53.9% (#3 ncaa), 73% RZ TDs (#10 ncaa). Pretty solid team. It is concerning they lost to Wazzou, Cal and Colorado. Although it still feels like ASU isn't completely settled either. Would be nice to get a little more return on investment betting Beavs to win straight up.

USC had unexpected week off. USC has been dogged twice this year and lost both at ND and ASU by identical 31-16 scores. Both those finals were somewhat misleading, they moved the ball well on ND, but stalled around the ND 25 and only trailed ASU by 1 entering the 4th Q. USC has failed to cover 4 straight and 5 of last 6. With All-everything WR Drake London out, the USC O has struggled. 312y at ASU was terrible by USC standards, that was about 100y lower than any other low yardage total they put up this year. They came in averaging 485! They were also without London in the 2nd H vs Arizona, they only had 160y and two FGs in the 2nd H. I think Drake London to USC was as critical to their offense as any player in the country, how heavily they relied on him and he delivered, double covered, breaking tackles, body control, sideline catches, you name it he did it. I can't bet USC without Drake London and I can't expect them to win without him. UCLA is a bad favorite being upset 3x by Fresno, Arizona St and Oregon. All 3 of those teams are better than USC however. UCLA turned into a total machine in the 2nd H last week vs Colorado, going on a 34 point unanswered run. It was only CU, so it isn't going to be that easy this week, but that showed me something, they responded to being out-played and out-physicalled. UCLA blew 28-10 lead in last year's crosstown rivalry game and this bunch has lost 2 straight to the Trojans. I think USC lacks weapons on O, has underachieved pretty much every game (0-3 ATS in Coliseum and lost 2 straight up), sure they could care here for this game, but Bruins will care too and this year are the better team. So clearly I am not MLing USC.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
That is about all I can do tonight. Of those, for me I would consider Akron, Missouri, Colorado and Oregon State.

Northwestern feels lilke the right side at least getting 11 from Purdue team that has run a gauntlet. And I really want to think Indiana has one shot left in them, but it's hard. Both those NW and IU are hard to like much.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
So a couple weeks ago like 2 or 3 +1000 plus dogs hit...last week of course there was KU. Which one(s) hit this week?

Sparty?
Texas State?
Razorbacks?
UConn? (<=nope!)
Temple?
KU again?
South Alabama?
New Mexico?

:popcorn:

I have a feeling about Temple this week. That feeling must be an AED machine because that team needs brought back to life. But I think Temple is my long shot this week.

South Alabama...is Tennesee better than App State? Final score not withstanding, South Bama should've been in that game. Tennessee likely a little flat this week.

Arkansas? I'm going to make a new rule, I am not MLing against Alabama or Georgia again. I did it twice, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Actually, maybe 3x, I think I had FL against Georgia too. Jesus. Then Alabama goes out and loses the week after I risk money on OM to beat them, Bama loses at aTm and I was so pissed off that Ole Miss was a noncompete I didn't even bet aTm ATS let alone ML and that pissed me off even more. I couldn't even hardly bring myself to turn that game one because I couldn't enjoy the upset because I wasn't on it and I was so mad at a game I should've been enjoying, I was pissed I had missed out on it. I know one thing, and it has always been true, I suck, absolutely suck, trying to bet against teams like Alabama and Georgia, so I am just going to quit.
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
I have a feeling about Temple this week. That feeling must be an AED machine because that team needs brought back to life. But I think Temple is my long shot this week.

South Alabama...is Tennesee better than App State? Final score not withstanding, South Bama should've been in that game. Tennessee likely a little flat this week.

Arkansas? I'm going to make a new rule, I am not MLing against Alabama or Georgia again. I did it twice, Ole Miss and Tennessee. Actually, maybe 3x, I think I had FL against Georgia too. Jesus. Then Alabama goes out and loses the week after I risk money on OM to beat them, Bama loses at aTm and I was so pissed off that Ole Miss was a noncompete I didn't even bet aTm ATS let alone ML and that pissed me off even more. I couldn't even hardly bring myself to turn that game one because I couldn't enjoy the upset because I wasn't on it and I was so mad at a game I should've been enjoying, I was pissed I had missed out on it. I know one thing, and it has always been true, I suck, absolutely suck, trying to bet against teams like Alabama and Georgia, so I am just going to quit.
I think Sparty could possibly stay in their game and have a shot. Bama usually shuts down one-dimensional offenses. How one-dimensional are the Razors? I agree with Temple. I have a feeling about them every week but they stay dead. What about New Mexico? I think they need to play a team who has offensive problems to win like they did @ Wyoming....how well is the Boise O currently playing?
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I have a feeling about them every week but they stay dead. What about New Mexico? I think they need to play a team who has offensive problems to win like they did @ Wyoming....how well is the Boise O currently playing?

Boise looks to be playing their best ball right now. Boise has been running the ball the best they have all year in recent weeks and their passing game if fairly steady in an atleast in an average way, they don't go through moments of total ineptitude like Wyoming can. Wyoming's problems are if they can't run they are usually done as they aren't good passing.

Wyoming just played Boise and while the final score says Boise won by 10, there was actually a moment in the 4th Q I thought Wyoming was driving to take what would've been 14-13. But they threw an INT and Boise got a long runback out of it and score and that was the end of that potential upset.

Can New Mexico do that? On New Mexico's best day, they've scored 17 points (vs UNLV). On their worst day they are scoring single digitis.

Wyoming was atleast off a confidence boosting win over CSU the week before they played Boise. Their anemic offense had gained traction in games vs San Jose and CSU leading up to Boise.

Comparing New Mexico's chances this week to Wyoming's last week don't seem the same. I don't see any signs of life out of the New Mexico offense. On the right day, maybe Long and Gonzales can cook up a defensive gameplan, that has what has led me to bet New Mexico a few times this year, but without the offensive support, I can't get behind them.

How does it happen, give me the visual?

I think I will find equally unappealing aspects on Temple later when I post about them.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii

Navy has pulled upets vs Tulsa and UCF as DD dogs. Mids have also had close losses vs Houston, SMU and Cincinnati - a who's who of the AAC. 5-1 ATS with 2 upsets vs conference foes. Their O is still a grinder, not many big plays per game. The D is pretty respectable, it's the best part of their team. In Navy's singular ATS failure at Memphis where they lost by 18, Memphis was hitting all cylinders, lots of big plays (Memphis led end 1st Q 14-7 with just 3 minutes TOP!). Navy couldn't keep up, they had a pick-six called back by penalty where they had to kick a FG and Memphis scored again and it became 21-10. That really is the only game vs AAC that the Navy D was bad. Notre Dame brought them down to earth last time out. East Carolina is pretty close to turning the corner on 6-0 ATS run, 7 straight vs FBS! ECU covered their last two as favorites vs Temple winning by 42 laying 15.5 and beating USF by 15 giving 10. ECU's pulled 3 outright upsets this season too! Really good year for them. They still have some old ECU in them. The bad ECU teams have had chronic problems with turnovers, and so it is this year as well. ECU has lost total of 13 turnovers their last 5 games. Their overall ratio is only-1 thanks in large part to gaining 8 TOs in games vs Tulane and USF, but ECU O is turning it over on par with all the ECU teams that did as well. The improved D is a big reason for their 6-4 record, while they allowing 4.37 ypc vs run, bottom 1/3 of the conference, that is improvement over the avg 5+ypc they've allowed the last 2 seasons. This year in their four worst rush D games vs AppSt, Mar, UCF and USF they did allow over 6ypc. These teams don't play every year, but ECU has not been favored in the series since 2012 when an 8-5 ECU team was -3.5 home vs an 8-5 Navy team and the Mids left with a 56-28 win. Navy's O hasn't shown the ability to score like that, but they haven't been dogged in the series since and haven't lost either.

2015 - Navy-5.5 45-21
2016 - Navy-8.5 66-31
2019 - Navy-7 42-10
2020 - Navy-3 27-23

The games are getting closer, but still have a hard time with ECU in the road chalk role vs a hard fighting Navy team rested off a bye in their final home game.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii

Last game in Columbia South Carolina was one of the best upsets of the year! That is however SC's only upset win in five chances, SC only covered one of the other four ATS (UGA-W, UK-L, UT-L, AM-L). Hard to know if the poor game at Mizzou was the FL win hangover or if it is just kind of who SC really is, not that great of a team that generally struggles on O - only avg 17.28ppg vs FBS prior to the UF game. They almost lost to Vandy, so that says something. Auburn is likely a difficult team for most of us to get a handle on. Come in here after blowing 28pt lead in home loss vs Miss St. Also held to just 3 points at aTm the week after beating Ole Miss and beating Arkansas. What will the O look like with Finley at QB, does that make them worse? Nix was having a pretty decent year right? I don't have any kind of feel on this one. Auburn has Alabama on deck. South Carolina has Clemson on deck.


Troy disappointed me last week in home dog role vs ULL, now face another Sun Belt heavyweight. Troy lost by 14, but outgained ULL -3 TO ratio all t the end of the game and a RZ FG kept the potential upset at bay and the cover unreachable. Troy remains one of the best Ds in the Sun Belt, but the O lags behind. They have pulled no upsets in 4 dog roles and are actually just 1-3 ATS as a dog (Coastal only cover). App St comes in off very misleading final score vs South Alabama - USA was in RZ 3x and ZERO pts and even threw an INT that was returned 100y for the dreaded 14-point swing. App St has been pretty good in all but one game this year really, the road game at ULL. AppSt covered 4 straight since losing to ULL. The Troy D should again give them a chance, like it did vs ULL and Coastal, I just don't know if we can trust the Troy O to do enough to deliver the win.

Charlotte is 4-1 SU at home, of course the one game they lost I needed vs FAU. Only beat MTSU by 3 and needed OT to beat Rice. Charlotte has pretty bad D, bottom 1/4 in all CUSA key defensive categories. Marshall has a big defensive edge, but offensively these teams are about the same, inconsistent and kind of average. Charlotte has pulled no upsets since week 1 vs Duke. I ML'd them last week at LaTech and the Charlotte D was a big liability there, the Charlotte O got yards, moved the ball and got into position to score, but failed to score too many times to end up losing by 10. Marshall has been upset 3x this year and were nearly upset by ODU (needed improbable 2nd H comeback to beat ODU in OT). Marshall needs this win and a win next week vs WKU to win CUSA East. Not sure how they respond though to losing their first "75 Game" since that game and ceremonies were instituted. Kind of feel like Charlotte has a shot here, but I'm always gun shy to go back on a team ML the week after they failed to win ML and ATS. If we get good Charlotte O and inconsistent Marshall O and the Marshall team that has lost 3x as fav and nearly a 4th as a fav this year then this one could happen. I think it is too much to expect Charlotte D to play well, so Marshall will have to beat themselves or have their head's elsewhere.

Texas Tech has pulled two upsets this year, last week vs ISU and earlier at WVU. I really don't know what to say about this one. Oklahoma State is off their most dominating win of the season and have Bedlam on deck. So that cracks the door open perhaps. Otherwise this appears like a highly unlikely upset. TT pretty much dominated ISU in the 1st H then held on and needed a 62y game winning FG. Fans stormed the field. OKSt had just 285 TY at WVU then exploded for 682 last week. OKSt held to 24 or fewer points in 3 Big Xll games this year, but scoring bunches of points isn't usually their game, shutting teams down in thing. I don't know. There are a lot of aspects about this game that I don't like and don't have anything to contribute. I mean I suppose if the OkSt O that sometimes isn't all that impressive shows up, maybe they would be vulnerable, but how can one figure this OkSt is not going to do what they normally do?
 
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s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii

Georgia Southern,
I have had zero connection to any of their games, pretty sure I have not been on or against them once and I don't think I have much to say here. They just pulled upset as short road dog at Texas State. Otherwise had come close calls, +6 vs GSU, lost by 7. +5.5 at Troy, lost by 3. +14.5 vs ULL, lost by 7. Unfortunately I have little knowledge to try and draw from with them. BYU has played a really good schedule and come out of it 8-2. I would have to say I'd be very surprised if they somehow lost this game and I'll leave it there.

FIU is awful, bad, one of the worst teams in the country. I must admit, yes I have bet them a couple times, FAU, MTSU and Marshall and just got obliterated each and every time. The one thing that brought me to them fully knowing how bad they are is that I must think I like their skill players enough to feel on the right day all their other shortcomings will somehow not matter. That hasn't been true. Their WRs and RB must not even be as good as I think they are because they aren't scoring points especially lately and their D gives em up like it's cool. North Texas on the other hand has turned a page and is playing some pretty good ball for them, winners of 4 straight ATS and 3 outright wins twice as 1-2 pt dogs. Now they go on the road and are DD favs! Wow. Before this year NT was a bad road team in general. This year they are 4-1 ATS with 2 straight up wins (Rice and USM). Before this year, they were actually 0-6 ATS as an away fav under Littrell and they lost 5 of the 6 straight up! Those are prior year teams over a range of years, but it is hard to instill confidence for this kind of team, not used to being a road fav and not typically having success when they are. If I had not been burned so many times on FIU MLs this year I could probably convince myself it would be worth a shot. There are no tangible or creative ways to try and make a case for FIU winning. Only the fact that seeing NT as a road fav makes one suspicious if they can actually do what they are supposed to.

Hawaii is our last home dog and one of my personal favorites every year. I'm going to bet the last game on Saturday night and I'm more often than not going to take Hawaii at home. First off, what the hell is a Colorado State team that has lost 4 in a row straight up and ATS doing as a road favorite at Hawaii!?! CSU has been upset 4x this year! CSU has been a clusterfuck almost all year. Lost to FCS South Dakota State, who is good, but then lost to Vandy! Beat Toledo to start an upswing of 4 competitive games with 3 wins in a row, but now this, the bottom appears to have fallen out. If they get a lead, they can't hold it (Boise). If they fall behind, they can't catch up (Air Force). If they are in a close game, they can't close it (Utah St). If they are in a game they should really care about, like a rivalry, they play bad (Wyoming). Should be able to run the ball well, can't (91st nationally 3.78ypc). Centio remains a threat to run, but his passing has really tappered off the last couple games (under 60%, 2-4 TD-INT ratio, 6-5 ratio vs all MW this year). CSU has one of the worst RZ TD scoring % in the country, 44%, that is 126th! Lots of FGs for them in the RZ. The CSU D is just reeling, after holding Utah State to just 344y 4.41ypp, the next week vs Boise they allowed 430TY 5.31ypp, the next week vs Wyoming they allowed 477TY 6.3ypp and last week vs AF they allowed 511TY 6.39. They are just falling off a cliff! What's to like about Hawaii....well...not much really. Since beating Fresno benefitting from I think 4 turnovers, Hawaii has lost 4 of their last 5 straight up with the only win among that stretch being vs New Mexico State! Hawaii did play San Diego State really tough and vs all comers at home this season, UH is 3-1 SU. Last year at home UH was 3-2 SU. It's hard to be fair and compare the performance of prior UH teams who were actually good. I can't try to be overly complimentary of this Hawaii team, it isn't good. They aren't doing anything well right now, the passing game has gone cold and they haven't been able to score many points. Even with what Utah State did to them, the D has probably been better than the O for Hawaii, a strange situation, even then, I don't think anybody wants to hang their hat on the Hawaii D to win this game. In summary, CSU is really a lost team. I don't know what they have to play for, they haven't looked like they know what they want to do or much competency in doing it almost all year. Why or how they suddenly rebound would be beyond me to expect. Hawaii hasn't been good, but I would say in their final home game of this rocky season, they have played well in spots at home this year and are more likely to play better again here than I'd assume CSU would be.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
So those are all the home dogs, plus Northwestern which I included here.

I think that Akron, Missouri, Colorado and Oregon State and Hawaii are the best ones.

I think that Northwestern and Charlotte look ugly but feel kind of right. South Carolina, eh, I don't know.

That would be 7 of the Saturday 17 home dogs including NW at Wrigley.

I'm going to step aside and give plenty of time for discussion, affirmations, negative comments, corrections, yes, nos, maybes on any of those or others.
 
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2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
you on top of it bro!! im just really getting started, will try and post some thoughts as i go thru card.. i havnt looked close at mem/hou yet but ill say one thing about memphis that drives me freaking crazy is they are fucking awful getting off the field on 3rd down, couldnt tell ya how many times last week they had ecu in a favorable 3rd and fairly long and ecu just picked up one after another! Just looked and see mem is 120th in the country allowing teams to convert over 46% of the time on 3rd down, that aint good. lol. I dont think they real great in pass protection either and houston can get after the qb. Another thing that aint great, memphis is also 120th in red zone efficiency, something else that bit them in the ass last week.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
you on top of it bro!! im just really getting started, will try and post some thoughts as i go thru card.. i havnt looked close at mem/hou yet but ill say one thing about memphis that drives me freaking crazy is they are fucking awful getting off the field on 3rd down, couldnt tell ya how many times last week they had ecu in a favorable 3rd and fairly long and ecu just picked up one after another! Just looked and see mem is 120th in the country allowing teams to convert over 46% of the time on 3rd down, that aint good. lol. I dont think they real great in pass protection either and houston can get after the qb. Another thing that aint great, memphis is also 120th in red zone efficiency, something else that bit them in the ass last week.

just saw they have only made 30% their fg attempts! jfc, lol. i cant believe i have backed this team and actually won once or twice this year! (last week not being one of them, lol). i really have no use for memphis away from home and now i see why, lot these things they struggle with are things you need to have success away from home.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
i think gators will prob rush for 300 yards on mizzou, outside last week that defense has been terrible and even holding scary to so few yards scary still managed to go over their team total if only by a half point. When you allow scary to score 28 when your d was about the best it been i worry you probably getting gashed here. Sure doesnt look like gators have much interest in playing defense anymore, i dont think mizzou has quit i just dont think they very capable. Feels like a game it gonna take 40+ to win but i have no idea how it gonna go? Mizzou could still become bowl eligible which i would think is far more important to coach drink in his rebuild than it is mullens who might be headed out the door. i dont love the idea of playing mizzou but that only side i would even consider just cause i think they still playing hard while it appears gators have all but packed it in for the year.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
i think gators will prob rush for 300 yards on mizzou, outside last week that defense has been terrible and even holding scary to so few yards scary still managed to go over their team total if only by a half point. When you allow scary to score 28 when your d was about the best it been i worry you probably getting gashed here. Sure doesnt look like gators have much interest in playing defense anymore, i dont think mizzou has quit i just dont think they very capable. Feels like a game it gonna take 40+ to win but i have no idea how it gonna go? Mizzou could still become bowl eligible which i would think is far more important to coach drink in his rebuild than it is mullens who might be headed out the door. i dont love the idea of playing mizzou but that only side i would even consider just cause i think they still playing hard while it appears gators have all but packed it in for the year.
Putting any more thought into anything but over means books are getting to you. I couldn't waste my time on a paragraph why. If it loses, it loses. But one disinterested defense and one that wishes they were good enough to be interested...might see 90 point is this one.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
Putting any more thought into anything but over means books are getting to you. I couldn't waste my time on a paragraph why. If it loses, it loses. But one disinterested defense and one that wishes they were good enough to be interested...might see 90 point is this one.

i agree
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
Akron, Maryland, Missouri, Northwestern, Indiana, Colorado, Stanford, Oregon St, USC, Navy, South Carolina, Troy, Charlotte, Texas Tech, Georgia Southern, FIU, Hawaii

Navy has pulled upets vs Tulsa and UCF as DD dogs. Mids have also had close losses vs Houston, SMU and Cincinnati - a who's who of the AAC. 5-1 ATS with 2 upsets vs conference foes. Their O is still a grinder, not many big plays per game. The D is pretty respectable, it's the best part of their team. In Navy's singular ATS failure at Memphis where they lost by 18, Memphis was hitting all cylinders, lots of big plays (Memphis led end 1st Q 14-7 with just 3 minutes TOP!). Navy couldn't keep up, they had a pick-six called back by penalty where they had to kick a FG and Memphis scored again and it became 21-10. That really is the only game vs AAC that the Navy D was bad. Notre Dame brought them down to earth last time out. East Carolina is pretty close to turning the corner on 6-0 ATS run, 7 straight vs FBS! ECU covered their last two as favorites vs Temple winning by 42 laying 15.5 and beating USF by 15 giving 10. ECU's pulled 3 outright upsets this season too! Really good year for them. They still have some old ECU in them. The bad ECU teams have had chronic problems with turnovers, and so it is this year as well. ECU has lost total of 13 turnovers their last 5 games. Their overall ratio is only-1 thanks in large part to gaining 8 TOs in games vs Tulane and USF, but ECU O is turning it over on par with all the ECU teams that did as well. The improved D is a big reason for their 6-4 record, while they allowing 4.37 ypc vs run, bottom 1/3 of the conference, that is improvement over the avg 5+ypc they've allowed the last 2 seasons. This year in their four worst rush D games vs AppSt, Mar, UCF and USF they did allow over 6ypc. These teams don't play every year, but ECU has not been favored in the series since 2012 when an 8-5 ECU team was -3.5 home vs an 8-5 Navy team and the Mids left with a 56-28 win. Navy's O hasn't shown the ability to score like that, but they haven't been dogged in the series since and haven't lost either.

2015 - Navy-5.5 45-21
2016 - Navy-8.5 66-31
2019 - Navy-7 42-10
2020 - Navy-3 27-23

The games are getting closer, but still have a hard time with ECU in the road chalk role vs a hard fighting Navy team rested off a bye in their final home game.

i heard outside last year with no fans Navy very tough to beat at home on senior day, forget the record but it was really good. ecu also became bowl eligible last week for 1st time in 5 or so years and have read that game was like their SB, and they have a shot at cincy on deck. ive seen/heard several ppl i respect on Navy this week and it def makes sense to me, im always a fan of ecu as dogs, not so much as a fav, navy has played a really tough schedule for a non power 5 team. Sure doesnt seem like a great spot for ecu to wanna go deal with one these option teams biting at their legs all game!
 
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KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
i figured this be a spot you be looking to fade them.
It dropped from 4 to 3.5 in the first couple hours of trading and got hit right back up. In fact as I see 4 as a key number, time to let er fly
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
i still dunno how Aub got that huge lead or how they managed to blow it last week, lol. NO idea what they gonna look like without Nix, id say yes he was having a pretty good year and had been much better on the road than in the past. Not sure scary can score on them tho? you would think the defense be motivated to be better after getting embarrassed in the 2nd half last week.
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
It dropped from 4 to 3.5 in the first couple hours of trading and got hit right back up. In fact as I see 4 as a key number, time to let er fly

the bet the board podcast guys said they expected it to stay around 4 or maybe even tick up a bit, they seem pretty locked into knowing what these numbers gonna do, think they played at 4.
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
the bet the board podcast guys said they expected it to stay around 4 or maybe even tick up a bit, they seem pretty locked into knowing what these numbers gonna do, think they played at 4.
Rather the risk/reward at 4 than if it moves a half point either direction
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
I have a feeling about Temple this week. That feeling must be an AED machine because that team needs brought back to life. But I think Temple is my long shot this week.
I agree with Temple. I have a feeling about them every week but they stay dead.

I am retracting my feelings about Temple.

So these long shots have to start with something. It isn't all a hunch thing. There has to be a trace of something you like that you follow, or don't like about the favorite.

I had thought perhaps that Temple's showing in the 1st H last week was some sign of them getting off the mat. Some teams stay down and out some teams keep at it trying to break through.

Temple is not breaking through.

Houston outgained them 190-68 in the 1st H. UH didn;t have so many yards because of their great starting field position. Starting drives at the H44, T47, H44, H20, H27. Houston drove the ball into scoring range 4 of their 5 1st H possessions, but came away with just 10 points. Tune wasn't completing passes at a good rate 1st Q. They went 3-and-out punt, TD, SOD T28 on 4th-9, FG from T22 after a sack, missed FG from T17 (after back-to-back incompletions) = 10-0 HT. Temple ran 6 plays in UH territory 1st H. Then they lost by 29. USF beat them by 20, ECU beat them by 42! Tulsa is no great favorite to be laying 20+, but talking about Temple winning? I'm not doing it. There has to be something, somewhere, some little shred of hope. Can't find any hope on this Temple team.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
New long shot, Arkansas State.

Arkansas State is just 2-7 SU / 5-4 ATS. Since their bye week they are 2-2 ATS, just won at ULM with a 538-372 yardage edge. Rough loss vs App State 48-14 but game was "just" 24-14 HT and App scored twice in D in that game. USA started fast, but Ark St had some scoring opportunities (SOD at SB01, FG from SB14, FG from SB25) and lost 31-13. South Bama was off their road loss to ULM, so the home game was a fully dialed in effort vs Ark St I'd figure. Then going back one more game, on a Thursday night they only lost to ULL by 1 in a game in which Ark St had leads of 7-0, 10-7, 17-14, 24-21, 27-21 before losing 27-28.

Playing good enough to win last week, played a decent 1st H vs App, played a decent 2nd H vs USA and played good enough to get and maintain a lead throughout the game vs ULL before falling by 1.

So the thinking here is that this team has a bit of a pulse, much more so than the first 1/2 of the season when they were road kill on a weekly basis (lost to Memphis by 5, next closest margin of loss was 17 with their worst losses coming by 49, 32 and 26). Avg margin of defeat in first 5 losses was 25.8. Compare that to now...worst loss is by 34 (two defensive TDs allowed), but their average margin of defeat their last 3 is down to 17.6.

Ok, but we need them to win. Enter the vulnerable favorite, Georgia State.

Now, Georgia State just knocked off their first ranked opponent ever at Coastal Carolina. But check Coastal's 442-373 TY edge with their backup QB. GSU capitalized off of some turnovers, putting their O on the field at the C01 and C08 for two very easy TDs. All that and Coastal was a 2pt conversion away from tying.

Sure Georgia State has been a solid team this year and they were trending towards a win of that nature. GSU lost a close one at ULL. But earlier, vs the weaker teams in the Sun Belt, they only beat Georgia Southern 21-14, game was tied in the 4th Q and Ga So outgained them 486-378. Georgia Southern 3-7 is also a bad team like Arkansas State. Go back one more week. They only beat Texas State 28-16, it was 21-16 entering the 4th Q. GSU did outgain Texas State this time, by 100y, but notice that Tx State kicked 3 FGs from the GS25 yardline and in (ok we can give credit to GSU D for stopping them), but also TxSt's final two possessions ended with a INT at the G03 thrown from the G34 and a fumble at the G12. As we know, Texas State is also a bad team at 3-7.

Is Georgia State a team that plays up to the bigger teams in the league and allows the bottom teams to stay in games with them?

Stopping the run is going to be the biggest challenge. If you don't know, Arkansas State does not excel in this area and it is what Georgia State does best. So there's the rub. Want a feel-good angle now? Georgia State gives up a 3rd down conversion nearly half the time, 46.3% and actually in their last 3 games, they on average gave up a 3rd down conversion over half the time (3 straight games allowing over 54% conversions).

Georgia State is pretty hot right now in general, and Arkansas State being a bad team, they can do all the things that bad teams do, like allow non-offensive scores, like turn the ball over in opponent territory instead of scoring, and so on. However, if somebody was to look for a big 3-score type underdog, actually try to state a case for backing them, looks to me that Arkansas State is the best of the bunch.
 

Rusty Trombone

Well-Known Member
ULM +1500? Already upset Liberty and Troy as huge dogs. LSU off Ole Miss, Bama and Arkansas where they managed 17,14, & 13 points....with Tex A&M on deck....Orgeron has already checked out. Cant see LSU getting up for this game at all....and even if they do, I dont think they are 4 tds better.....will be on ULM +29 for sure
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
Wouldn't be the first Sun Belt team to beat Coach O in Baton Rouge. Troy 2017 +20.5 won 24-21
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
I am retracting my feelings about Temple.

So these long shots have to start with something. It isn't all a hunch thing. There has to be a trace of something you like that you follow, or don't like about the favorite.

I had thought perhaps that Temple's showing in the 1st H last week was some sign of them getting off the mat. Some teams stay down and out some teams keep at it trying to break through.

Temple is not breaking through.

Houston outgained them 190-68 in the 1st H. UH didn;t have so many yards because of their great starting field position. Starting drives at the H44, T47, H44, H20, H27. Houston drove the ball into scoring range 4 of their 5 1st H possessions, but came away with just 10 points. Tune wasn't completing passes at a good rate 1st Q. They went 3-and-out punt, TD, SOD T28 on 4th-9, FG from T22 after a sack, missed FG from T17 (after back-to-back incompletions) = 10-0 HT. Temple ran 6 plays in UH territory 1st H. Then they lost by 29. USF beat them by 20, ECU beat them by 42! Tulsa is no great favorite to be laying 20+, but talking about Temple winning? I'm not doing it. There has to be something, somewhere, some little shred of hope. Can't find any hope on this Temple team.

houston mauled temple w run game which i dont think bodes real well now having to face a Tulsa team that has a pretty dynamic run game that gets a lot of guys involved, owls are 121st in the country allowing 232 rush yards per game, think this could be real ugly..
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
speaking of houston, as if i didnt give enough reasons why i cant trust memphis here another pretty damning one. Last week ecu ran 102 freaking plays to memphis 50!! ecu had more rushing attempts than memphis had total plays, and now they on a short week? it never easy for me to lay more than a td with any team but man Houston feels like the right side to me. no chance i could play memphis that for sure. Tune over 241.5 passing yards has a pretty nice ring to it. Houston is incredibly balanced but the best way to attack memphis is thru the air, they are 112th in completion percentage allowed (hou 11th in the country completing 68.5% their passes), 107th in the country allowing 266 air yards a game, and houston avg 269. This be the second time this season playing a Tune over yards prop, the 1st one cashed easy and think they came light with the number once again.
 

s--k

CTG Underdog Guru
So here is what MLs I'm considering for tomorrow:

Akron
Mizzou
South Bama
Northwestern
Rutgers
Nebraska
Colorado
Troy
ULM
Charlotte
Arkansas State
Rice

Any final thoughts?
 

2daBank

Loves Exclamation Points
you look at uab/utsa? that should be hell of a game, i think i can make a real good case for value on UAB at plus money but dont think i want to get in front the road runners as they seem to be on a mission.
 

JROCK1966

Well-Known Member
So here is what MLs I'm considering for tomorrow:

Akron
Mizzou
South Bama
Northwestern
Rutgers
Nebraska
Colorado
Troy
ULM
Charlotte
Arkansas State
Rice

Any final thoughts?
Gonna play USA as well. The only reason I can add is the "Post-Georgia Effect." All I know is my Cats have played like shit the game following our Georgia game Every. Single.Year. for the past several years. This game beats the shit out of our players.....pure and simple. If Tennessee is beat-up the way my Cats are normally beat up then there may be a chance here for USA's offense to score a lot. A reach I know, but we all need to find a "reach" when backing 1000+ dogs....LFG!!
 

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