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Magic/Pistons & Timberwolves/Pelicans Parlay Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
NBA Parlay for Wednesday's Slate at (+264) Features No-Defense Detroit & Mighty Minnesota

Best Bet: Parlay Magic/Pistons over 229.5 at -110 & Timberwolves +6.5 at -110 at +264 odds with BetOnline

Orlando Magic vs. Detroit Pistons
Wednesday, December 28, 2022 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit

No-Defense Detroit

The Pistons are 8-28 largely because, simply put, they don't play defense.

They rank second-to-last in allowing 119 points per game, and they suffer the second-worst defensive rating.

Their struggles on defense are most apparent in their most recent games.

They've allowed 122 or more points in seven of their last eight games.

In the one exception, they allowed 113 points against a 76er team that blew them out because, unlike Orlando, Philadelphia is an elite defensive squad, as apparent in its defensive rating and decorated personnel.

Many Things Are Wrong

There are many reasons why Detroit regularly allows so many points.

They are terrible at preventing opponents from achieving easy baskets and scoring in the paint.

Center Jalen Duren might have the prototypical size for a rim-protector, but the rookie is young, raw, and developing.

When opponents do miss a shot attempt, you can count on them to accrue second-chance scoring opportunities because Detroit is one of the worst teams at defensive rebounding.

Pistons' Ball-Screen Defense

One aspect of Detroit's defensive struggles that is more relevant to tonight's game is its poor ball-screen defense.

The Pistons are trying to adjust from leaving last year's more switch-heavy defensive philosophy and transitioning to a less switch-heavy defensive strategy that they are struggling to execute.

These struggles and this learning curve largely explains why Detroit allows the second-most PPP (points per possession) against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.

Orlando's Offensive Focus

Orlando is primed to score a lot against the Pistons because Orlando already loves to run the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.

The Magic run this play type with the seventh-highest frequency.

In particular, point guard Cole Anthony ably uses ball screens to score inside.

His quickness helps him drive effectively.

It is just fine that he is known so well known for his three-point shooting, because he is well-equipped to exploit the vulnerable Piston interior defense.

Detroit's Own Offensive Firepower

The Pistons won't have to do too much to ensure that the game goes "over" the posted total.

Unlike Philadelphia, Orlando ranks among the NBA's worst in defensive rating.

Among other things, the Magic do an awful job of paying attention to the perimeter, as evident in the uniquely high number of attempted threes that they concede per game.

Expect the Pistons to take advantage especially with Alec Burks, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Isaiah Stewart, all of whom are converting 40 percent or more of their three-point attempts in December.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Wednesday, December 28, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET at Smoothie King Center in New Orleans

New Orleans' Lack of Rim Protection

The Pelicans lack sufficient rim-protecting personnel.

Pelican bigs allow high field goal percentages within six feet of the basket.

But it's not all their fault.

When Pelican guards struggle to handle being screened, opponents are able more easily to accrue pressure against their basket.

Given these related problems -- of ball-screen defense and rim-protecting personnel quality -- New Orleans allows the second-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.

Minnesota's Offensive Focus

The Timberwolves are uniquely well-equipped to exploit New Orleans' rim-protecting weakness.

They feature Rudy Gobert at center who converts over 70 percent of his field goal attempts within five feet of the basket.

Moreover, rising star Anthony Edwards, who has created a highlight reel of above-the-rum scoring, is a characteristic slasher who poses a threat at the basket with his momentous athleticism.

He, too, is a high-volume scorer at the basket who can improve upon his 23.4 points per game average against this Pelican defense.

New Orleans' Offensive Outlook

The Pelicans are unique for wanting rather to score inside rather than shoot threes.

They attempt the third-most field goals within five feet of the basket.

But they must contend with one of the NBA's best rim protectors in perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate Gobert.

Minnesota has a clear edge in this game because it possesses the rim protection quality that New Orleans lacks.
 
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