KENTUCKY DERBY pick 4 + more degenerate rambling


Well-Known Member
My favorite Saturday of the year, (until college football starts) ...

Best of health , happiness, blessings, love , luck , and wealth to all ...

Very happy to see the mega chalk Forte scratched thus morning

$820 to spend today on the Derby and the under card ...Absolutely love betting the pick 4 and a few Trifecta's along the way .

The plan is to go 8 deep in the derby (final leg of the pick 4) .. Chalks Angel of Empire and Tapit Trice need to be included but there are at least 6 more my numbers say have a chance to wear the roses ..

PICK 4 starts in race 9 ...

I'll give my ratings ( often useless lol ) for every horse in all 4 legs below ( other than the ones I toss completely)


Let's get to GAMBLING
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Pick 4 / trifecta Grading System

A+/A/A-. Worth a single /must be used on top in exotics

B+ Must be used , likely the chalk , my odds have them 4-1/7-2 or less

B/B - Need to be used in pick 4 , But probably not on top of a Trifecta

C+ Could win , would be a kick in the balls if they won and were left off the pick 4 ticket

C/C- Borderline to be used on deeper pick 4 tickets ...Use underneath in Trifecta

D+ Only 3rd and or 4th in Tri/supers

D/D- Likely just burning money if included..

F. Toss and don't give a second look unless you're daddy war bucks ..
Race 9

Was hoping for more scratches, so I don't have to go so deep ..Race looks wide open ...Going to use 6 horses on main ticket and there is a chance that's still not enough

1. B
8. B-
4. B-
5. B-
11. C+
2. C+
3. C
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Race 10

Here is the single (#7 Cody's Wish ) ...I think he goes off at 3/5 or less ...Likely using the 10 on either a backup ticket or to kick off a pick 3 hedge ...

7. A+
10. C+
6. C-
5. D
4. D-
8. D-
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Race 11

Tempted to go just 2 deep on the main ticket as my numbers have the 7 and 5 much better than the field...That being said beating them could lead to a much bigger payoff if one of the 3 chalks wins the derby ...

7. A-
5. A-
8. B-
3. C
9. C
10. C -
6. D+
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Race 12. Kentucky Derby

Boom the rumors are true , Forte is scratched....YESSSSSSSSS

Ohhhh man this is the most horses my ratings have suggested to use in the Derby since I started this rating system in 1994 ....

5. B+ should be closing late , love the added distance....Both the 5 and 14 should be the chalks

14. B+. Should be right there late...likely going off as the chalk with the Forte scratch ...Prat is my favorite North American jockey

8. B - My live long shot ..Lightly raced , has improved speed in every race ( only 3 starts) ...Got off the horrible start in the Florida Derby and still almost won ( Caught by Forte late )..

17 & 22. C+ Strongly recommend using both Japanese horses...JAPANESE horses have been winning some big races around the globe the last 2 years and these look like the best to ever come to Kentucky IMO ..

7. C Currently at 12-1 down from the 50-1 ML ...Former Crooked Baffert horse who enters under Yakteen ...Should be the speed, several of my scenarios have him leading down the stretch..Can he hold the lead ????

6. C- Wanted to toss this horse but can't..Lightly raced 3 for 3 thus far ...Should be near the lead coming down the stretch .

3. C- Might be over bet , but I'll use him ..

Probably don't need to use these horses unless your betting Supers ...Who knows though anything can happen inthe toughest race to handicap .

2. D
4. D
18. D-
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Pick 4

Ticket A
50 cent

Race 9. 1,2,,3,4,5,8,11
Race 10. 7
Race 11. 3,5,7,8,9,10
Race 12. 3,5,6,7,8,14,17,22
Cost $168

Way deeper than I wanted to go in legs 1 and 3 but it still might not be deep enough ....Obviously if the chalks win in those legs this could be a waste of money unless a bomber wins the Derby.
Pick 3 ticket ( Hedge )
50 cent

Probably a waste of dough but I have no problem spending $48 here because if the mega chalk #7 Cody's Wish chokes this could at least get my pick 4 money back ...

Race 10. 6,10. The only 2 with a pulse according to my grades ...

Race 11. 3,5,7,8,9,10

Race 12. 3,5,6,7,8,14,17,22
Cost $48
Pick 4 ticket B

I have to tail my red hot buddy who talked me into the Oaks winner Pretty mischievous yesterday....He's going against the grain in the derby and using the 2,4,11,18 ( as well as the 5,7,8,14,17,22 that I've already included )

25 cent pick 4 ( buying some of this $2 pick 4 )

Cost $21

Race 9. 1,2,3,4,5,8,11
Race 10. 7
Race 11. 5,7,8
Race 12. 2,4 11,18
Race 6

Total cost $21

$8 win #9

$1 ex. 3,6,11,12 over 9

50 cent Tri
1st. 3,6,12
2nd. 2,3,5,6,8,11,12
3rd. 9
Cost $9
Race 7.

Total cost $29

$14 win #11

$1 ex. 2,3,4,6,9,10,12 over 11

$1 ex. 4,10 over 11

50 cent tri
Cost $6
Blinkers on worked for the Oaks winner yesterday. Maybe it can do the same for Rocket Can

He's interesting, my buddy who has been on fire at Churchill this week is on Rocket Can as well ...

Might be worth a small bet and on the bottom of the exotics IMO ...
appreciate you posting this , pushes me to throw a little on him ..