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Tin&Lint

Well-Known Member
Yet another future play…

2* San Francisco under 8.5 RSW -155

Look at their remaining schedule and tell me how on earth this team gets to 9 wins.
Really? I’d give them likely wins @Chi, @Jax, H-Min, @Sea/Geno, H-Atl, and @Hou.

That’s 8. Sure Shanny doesn’t spring an upset elsewhere?
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
Really? I’d give them likely wins @Chi, @Jax, H-Min, @Sea/Geno, H-Atl, and @Hou.

That’s 8. Sure Shanny doesn’t spring an upset elsewhere?
Russ is due back 11/14 so won't be Geno and one of @Chi/@Jax will be no gimmie but agree on the others for sure
 

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Really? I’d give them likely wins @Chi, @Jax, H-Min, @Sea/Geno, H-Atl, and @Hou.

That’s 8. Sure Shanny doesn’t spring an upset elsewhere?
Quite possible but of that list I would say Chi, Min & ATL are toss-ups.

Maybe I’m too down on them but I just don’t think Garoppolo is a good QB. He’s serviceable at best and I think he’s getting worse and Lance clearly isn’t ready yet.
 

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#3DownNation
Results after Week 8...

Sides 24-19 +4.83*
Totals 8-9-2 -1.325*
Live / 2H 3-5 -1.70*
Tease/Parlay 9-2 +5.60*
Player Props 7-1 +2.92*


Overall 51-36-2 +10.325*

6-2 on the week.
 

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Complete Week 9 card...still looking at props

1* NY Jets +10.5 -113
0.5* Mike White under 256.5 pass yds -110

1.5* NO / ATL under 44 -110
1* LA Chargers -1.5 -110
.5*/.5* San Francisco +1.5 / ML -107 / +108
1* Teaser NY Giants +7.5 / Baltimore -1 -110
1* Teaser Kansas City -1.5 / LA Rams -1.5 -120
 

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0.5* Prop Dalvin Cook Rush/Rec yds over 92.5 -110
0.5* Prop Justin Jefferson over 75.5 rec yds -110
 

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#3DownNation
Results after Week 9...

Sides 25-21 +3.665*
Totals 8-10-2 -2.975*
Live / 2H 4-7 -2.93*
Tease/Parlay 10-3 +5.40*
Player Props 9-2 +3.37*


Overall 56-43-2 +6.53*

5-7 on the week. Not good.
 

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#3DownNation
Week 10 plays...

1*/.5* New Orleans +3 / ML -115 / +131
1* MIN / LAC over 52.5 -110
1* LA Chargers -2.5 -120
1* Carolina +10.5 -110

1* Teaser Baltimore -1.5 / Cleveland +8 -120

1* Prop Adrian Peterson under 38.5 rush yds -110
 

Metallica

Well-Known Member
Week 10 plays...

1*/.5* New Orleans +3 / ML -115 / +131
1* MIN / LAC over 52.5 -110
1* LA Chargers -2.5 -120
1* Carolina +10.5 -110

1* Teaser Baltimore -1.5 / Cleveland +8 -120

1* Prop Adrian Peterson under 38.5 rush yds -110
Good luck this week Buddy.
 

Tin&Lint

Well-Known Member
Can you talk about your read on the Lac-Min game? That one is fascinating to me.

Bolts take away passing game and explosive plays, but allow some rushing success. Most teams grow impatient on offense. Normally I’d say that’s perfect given Vikings explosive weapons (Jefferson, Thielen, Conklin, Cousins, Cook). But Min coaching is too stupid to take advantage of that, and play conservative every week. I’m worried Vikes may be lucking their way into a perfect matchup here.

Even last week, after their coaching was laughingstock of the league losing to Cooper Rush, they still went conservative with runs and short passes after an opening TD.
 

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I took the chargers early in the week mostly because at that point, I had a strong feeling this would move across the 3 and possibly even to -3.5 by kickoff. I never hesitate to grab those because I can always buy off with a possible middle later if I don't like the play. Additionally, Pinny was moving strongly in that direction and when they are on your side, you are usually on the right side.

First of all, I think the Chargers are just a flat out better team right now than the Viks. Beyond that, Minnesota is pretty banged up on defense and when I made the bet had a lot of looming covid issues that could cause even more players to miss the game. That's why I had some confidence the line would move.

You're right that the Chargers do take away the big plays and the passing game and play light in the front, daring teams to run against them. They can be better against the run if they want to as run-stopping is largely a choice in your alignment. But with Minny's defensive injuries I think the Chargers will move the ball and score with relative ease, forcing the Viks to try and keep up and I don't think they can win a track meet. I see this as a relatively high scoring matchup where the points will matter less.
 

Tin&Lint

Well-Known Member
I took the chargers early in the week mostly because at that point, I had a strong feeling this would move across the 3 and possibly even to -3.5 by kickoff. I never hesitate to grab those because I can always buy off with a possible middle later if I don't like the play. Additionally, Pinny was moving strongly in that direction and when they are on your side, you are usually on the right side.

First of all, I think the Chargers are just a flat out better team right now than the Viks. Beyond that, Minnesota is pretty banged up on defense and when I made the bet had a lot of looming covid issues that could cause even more players to miss the game. That's why I had some confidence the line would move.

You're right that the Chargers do take away the big plays and the passing game and play light in the front, daring teams to run against them. They can be better against the run if they want to as run-stopping is largely a choice in your alignment. But with Minny's defensive injuries I think the Chargers will move the ball and score with relative ease, forcing the Viks to try and keep up and I don't think they can win a track meet. I see this as a relatively high scoring matchup where the points will matter less.
Great thoughts. Thanks. I actually think a track meet is good for Vikes, as it forces them to open up the offense. They’ve had success when they do. Not saying that makes them a winner, but they may have success coming back if they get down two scores early.

All that to say my feeling is Vikes games usually close because they either sit on a lead, or forced to open up offense and catch up (and have weapons to make that successful).

You’ve got me convinced over is the play here, as I’d rather not lay the 2.5.
 

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1* Detroit +8.5 -110 - Lord help me

0.5* Atlanta 1Q +3.5 -115 - heard some discussion of this on a podcast and I love the reasoning.
 

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#3DownNation
Results after Week 10...

Sides 27-24-1 +3.39*
Totals 8-11-2 -4.075*
Live / 2H 4-7 -2.93*
Tease/Parlay 10-5 +2.90*
Player Props 10-2 +4.37*


Overall 59-49-3 +3.655*

3-6-1 on the week. Ice cold right now.
 

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Man, I kinda like Russ today, I was thinking over 1.5 tds instead of yards tho. Suppose we could both hit. Gl today

Maybe I get fooled by Pete Carroll constantly talking about running more but I also think its a matchup thing for the seahawks here. I see a low scoring game in the high 30s
 

guaranteeed

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Nice. I was thinking of Dallas as a good teaser leg but the more I looked the more I think they are a matchup problem for the Chiefs and have a good chance of winning outright.
I think before last weekend Dallas is favored here and the line was an overreaction, I dont think 1 week of the chiefs playing well means they are back, dallas is much closer to what green bay showed them on d than vegas, and even without amari can go back and forth in a shootout if necessary. So I'll pay to see if they are back and can prove it's not true
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Maybe I get fooled by Pete Carroll constantly talking about running more but I also think its a matchup thing for the seahawks here. I see a low scoring game in the high 30s

yea i agree it prob be low scoring. my thing is im not quite ready to write the seahags off and think the only way their season stays alive is for them to win this one, to me that means Russ has to shake the rust and play like a MVP, i dont think that avg run game missing some pieces is gonna be able to beat cardinals. I just played his ov1.5 td prop so there certainly room we both can cash on that one,, gl today..
 

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yea i agree it prob be low scoring. my thing is im not quite ready to write the seahags off and think the only way their season stays alive is for them to win this one, to me that means Russ has to shake the rust and play like a MVP, i dont think that avg run game missing some pieces is gonna be able to beat cardinals. I just played his ov1.5 td prop so there certainly room we both can cash on that one,, gl today..
You too my man. Lets both cash
 

KJ

KJ is my name, naps are my game.
BOL today, won't mind you hitting the Russ prop

Probably be on whoever QBs the Cards today over passing yards
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Good call w seattle/Russ bro, it freaking amazing to me before the last drive of 1st half Russ had 9 pass attempts while colt McCoy had more than 20!! How mismanaged can a team be? You got a HOF qb and a couple great wrs and you rather run the ball with a 3rd or 4th string running back? Then put your passing game into obvious pass situations before you throw? Jfc it bad up there! Why did they switch OC’s when they apparently bought in another who clueless? Or just does what Pete says, not sure which? Maybe both! Anyways you were spot on, they incompetent, I really didn’t think w season on the line they would take it out of wilson hands, he needs to get the fuck out of there before Pete ruins the back half of his career!!
 

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#3DownNation
Good call w seattle/Russ bro, it freaking amazing to me before the last drive of 1st half Russ had 9 pass attempts while colt McCoy had more than 20!! How mismanaged can a team be? You got a HOF qb and a couple great wrs and you rather run the ball with a 3rd or 4th string running back? Then put your passing game into obvious pass situations before you throw? Jfc it bad up there! Why did they switch OC’s when they apparently bought in another who clueless? Or just does what Pete says, not sure which? Maybe both! Anyways you were spot on, they incompetent, I really didn’t think w season on the line they would take it out of wilson hands, he needs to get the fuck out of there before Pete ruins the back half of his career!!
Yup, makes me wonder if maybe he is not 100% still
 

2daBank

Dan The Prop Assassin Man
Yup, makes me wonder if maybe he is not 100% still

I think it just the coaching staff incompetence honestly. They been doing this for better part of last 3 years well before he got hurt,, we had the one 8 week stretch where they “let Russ cook” then the minute they lost a few games Pete clearly stepped in and decided it was back to this garbage style to try and protect his shit defense.
 

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#3DownNation
Results after Week 11...

Sides 29-25-1 +4.08*
Totals 9-12-2 -4.175*
Live / 2H 4-8 -4.005*
Tease/Parlay 10-5 +2.90*
Player Props 11-2 +5.37*


Overall 63-52-3 +4.17*

4-3 for about half a unit. Not great but at least its the right direction.

Plays down for week 12 thus far...
1.5* / .5* Minnesota +3.5 / ML -120 / +153
1* Buffalo -4 -110
 

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