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Hollywood Casino 400 Picks Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Preview


Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Odds Analysis


Kyle Larson is favored at +240 to win Sunday’s race.

This isn’t surprising, by any means, because he’s basically been the fastest guy all season. This fact is what the betting odds account for by favoring him

I just don’t understand why anybody would invest in him – at this price no less – to win a second race in a row, which is hard to do, especially when he has less incentive to perform well after he already secured his spot in the next round.

Additionally, I find William Byron at +900 to win rather odd. He is favored more heavily than bigger names like Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski who are still in playoff contention. I am not seeing any value in Byron.


Hollywood Casino 400 Picks

Kevin Harvick (+1800)
Brad Keselowski (+1400)


Hollywood Casino 400 Predictions

Kevin Harvick (+1800)


You might have dismissed Kevin Harvick from your list of go-to guys to bet on earlier in the season when he clearly demonstrated regression in his quality relative to his superb regular season performance last year.

Harvick, however, has turned it up when it counts the most, later in the season.

Whereas he had repeatedly failed to finish top-10, since September, he has failed to finish top-10 only once. The one exception was the consequence of a wreck.

Stated differently, since September, Harvick has finished top-10 in six of seven races. During this same span, he’s produced three top-five finishes.

Evidence of Harvick’s strong form lies in his consistency. He consistently finishes strong despite suffering disadvantages like a negative starting position.

Last week, for example, he finished fifth in Texas despite starting in 24th place. Moving up 19 spots is generally a tough ask, and Harvick did that.

The race at Talladega, which is the race before the one in which Harvick crashed, was impressive in a different respect.

Very often, Harvick struggles at Talladega, which is why his average finishing position there is still only 15.57.

However, Harvick’s strong form persisted in his last race there. On October 4, Harvick finished in eighth place at Talladega.

Bad history is not something that Harvick has at Kansas. Kansas Speedway is already one of Harvick’s better tracks based on stats like recent average driver rating and average finishing position.

Moreover, in recent years, Harvick has been on-point at Kansas. In his last four tries at Kansas Speedway, Harvick has finished ninth, fourth, second, and second, respectively.

He accomplished his last second-place finish at this track back in May when he hadn’t yet entered his September form.

Now he is in peak form, so he is in a great spot to end his streak of second-place finishes by winning.

+1800 is a ridiculously high price for Harvick. I don’t get why Byron, for example, is only at +900.

While Harvick is no longer in playoff contention, he showed how little this fact matters to him by finishing fifth in his last race, which was the first race in the Round of 8 that he was eliminated from participating in. He clearly still cares about maintaining his strong form.


Brad Keselowski (+1400)

Brad Keselowski distinguishes himself positively from every other candidate to win the race.

Still with everything to compete for, Keselowski has all the incentive to perform well.

Unlike guys like Chase Elliott and Martin Truex Jr, for example, Keselowksi enjoys strong overall form.

Keselowski has finished top-seven in four of his last five races.

In contrast to the likes of Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano, Keselowski also enjoys a superb recent history at this track with three top-four finishes in his last three tries.
 

CPA-hole

Well-Known Member
FFS this should be the week they beat Kyle Larson and he's still +240.

I narrowed it down to Hamlin, Busch, and Kez. So for your guys sake I'll just play Busch +600 to win.
 
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