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Georgia vs. Alabama Parlay Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Junior Moderator
CFP National Championship Game Parlay Plays: Bets to Win Big on Georgia vs. Alabama

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Monday, January 10, 2022 at 8 p.m. ET (ESPN) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, Indiana

Missing Metchie


Alabama will miss wide receiver John Metchie who tore his ACL in his team's SEC Championship Game.

Metchie was Bama's co-leading receiver alongside Jameson Williams.

While Williams leads the team in yards -- he has 1,507 to Metchie's 1,142 -- Metchie leads it in receptions, of which he has 96 to Williams' 75.

It is misleading to simply cast Williams as the big-play guy and Metchie as the possession receiver.

Metchie was a reliable source of chunk plays as a result of his expertise at finding holes in coverage.

His physical skillset also separated him from his teammates. His route-running abilities were strengthened by the rapidity with which he could start and stop and change directions.

Given these physical advantages, he has over three times as many yards as any teammate besides Williams and almost three times as many catches.

In the SEC Championship Game, Metchie accumulated six receptions, 97 yards, and a touchdown. His presence also created more opportunities for Williams.

Without Metchie, Georgia defenders will have one less threat to worry about and will be able to devote more attention to Williams.

This game will be lower-scoring because Metchie won't be in it.

Game Plan

After the SEC Championship Game defeat, Bulldog team leaders openly articulated the need for a different game-plan.

Obviously, allowing 41 points is not acceptable, especially not to a Bulldog squad whose defense had received veneration, week after week, and with much justification, for Georgia owns the nation's best scoring defense.

The Bulldogs are, by far, the only team to allow fewer than 10 points per game.

Against Alabama, Georgia did not blitz much.

This year, the Bulldogs have been blitzing at a significantly lower rate than is usual for Kirby Smart.

They haven't needed to blitz because of the pressure they've been able to generate without a blitz.

But they definitely have the personnel to blitz effectively. One candidate to blitz well is Butkus Award winner Nakobe Dean.

Dean epitomizes the ideal Georgia linebacker. A human rocket, he is quick, explosive, and powerful. He has created a highlight reel for himself blitzing.

While Bama's Bryce Young is more difficult to chase around than Michigan's Cade McNamara, Dean has the polished athletic ability to reliably get to Young.

Georgia will certainly adjust its coverage plan as well -- and the improved health of safety Chris Smith, improved relative to his fitness in the SEC Championship Game, will assist the Bulldogs in this endeavor as well. But certainly, increased Bulldog blitzing will limit Alabama's scoring.

Georgia's Defensive Problems

But Alabama won the first meeting by 17 points. It can certainly afford to score less and still cover the spread and win.

While Bama misses a key wide receiver, Georgia's secondary is thin.

The Bulldog secondary, like Alabama's receiving crew, has suffered backbreaking injuries.

Cornerback Jalen Kimber, for example, could have helped Georgia. But he is out for the season as is former First-Team All-American Tykee Smith.

Transfers and departures for the NFL have created further attrition in the Bulldog secondary.

This attrition isn't receiving as much attention as Metchie's absence because it's been the norm for Georgia while Metchie's injury is still fresh in people's minds.

The Bulldogs' weakness in the back end is an unrelenting feature of its pass defense as several big pass plays produced by McNamara and by other quarterbacks during the season indicate.

Jameson Williams, with his elite speed, is a top-level deep threat, just the guy to exploit Georgia's vulnerability in the back.

While Georgia will be more focused on him and while Williams cannot entirely make up for Metchie's absence, Williams can still adopt an expanded role.

Metchie had specialized in the shorter passing game and this specialization helped facilitate and maximize Williams' success on deep balls. Now, Williams can do both.

Williams can create more plays closer to the line of scrimmage in order to compel Bulldog defenders to pay more attention to the short and intermediate passing game. Then he can connect with Young on a deep ball.

Alabama's Offensive Line

While Georgia pressure will increase in the rematch, one can't simply ignore that Bryce Young did not take a single sack when these teams first met.

Alabama's pass protection, like the team as a whole, reliably steps up in bigger games and in situations where it is more focused or playing angry.

Legitimate number one pick candidate Evan Neal will anchor the offensive line at left tackle.

Emil Ekiyor is another key figure who started on last year's unit which won the Joe Moore Award for having the best offensive line.

While the right guard left the first quarter of his team's first round game with a shoulder injury, J.C. Latham stepped up superbly in his place.

Latham, a former five-star recruit, contributed to the massive numbers that the Bama offense accumulated passing and running.

Ekiyor and starting right tackle Chris Owens, who left late in the game against Cincinnati, could be ready for the title game. Both anyhow have reliable backups.

They will allow Young to have sufficient time in the pocket and workhorse running back Brian Robinson Jr. to add meaningful balance to the offense.

Stetson Bennett

Albeit by a slighter margin than in the first meeting, Alabama will force Georgia's quarterback to play from behind, which is exactly opposite of what the preferably run-heavy Bulldogs want to do.

Bennett relies especially on tight end Brock Bowers. Bowers, though, was hampered by a shoulder injury that limited his productivity against Michigan.

While Bowers should be well enough for the title game, his numbers in his first meeting against the Tide create a misleading impression because much of the damage that he created came later in the game when his team was down multiple touchdowns.

In a closer game, Alabama's defense will keep a tighter lock on Bowers, which will further impede Georgia's serviceable backup-turned-starting quarterback from remotely approaching the yardage total (340) that he did in the first meeting.

The Verdict

Increased pressure, Metchie's absence, and less productivity from Bennett and Bowers will keep this game low-scoring.

Still, the Crimson Tide's edge against the Bulldog secondary and its highly capable offensive line will ensure that they outscore Georgia.

Best Bet: Parlay Crimson Tide +3 at -115 & Under 52.5 at -110 at +257 odds with BetOnline
 

inZane

Well-Known Member
Appreciate you taking the time to post these VC.

Just curious, do you keep track of the record of your picks?
 

Frank Costanza

Well-Known Member
This is my last college football article for the season. Thanks to all who stopped by to read and/or contribute. My article threads are made a lot better by the folks who add their own thoughts. But it's anyhow nice to have an audience. Thank you.
Thanks for taking time out to do these. Obviously lots of work involved and greatly appreciated.
 

MikeU

Well-Known Member
This is my last college football article for the season. Thanks to all who stopped by to read and/or contribute. My article threads are made a lot better by the folks who add their own thoughts. But it's anyhow nice to have an audience. Thank you.
Def appreciate all of these and look forward to them each week!
 

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