Friday Pitcher Props Preview Article


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Best MLB Player Props for May 26: Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta is Automatic at Home

  • Shane Bieber over 5.5 strikeouts at +108 with Caesars
  • Freddy Peralta under 1.5 earned runs at +120 with BetMGM
  • Reid Detmers over 1.5 earned runs at -182 with BetMGM

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 7:10 p.m. ET at Progressive Field in Cleveland

Cleveland's Shane Bieber

Shane Bieber starts for the Guardians tonight.

The over/under for his strikeout total today sits at 5.5.

In his starts this year, he has mostly been close to that total.

But he demonstrated in two games that he can also fly past it: against Detroit, he amassed nine strikeouts; also, against Oakland, he struck out seven batters.

So, even if he were to pitch poorly tonight, we can expect him to at least give the "over" a fighting chance.

However, his average strikeout total is going to rise in general over time.

In terms of accumulating strikeouts, he has suffered from facing teams that rank in the upper half in avoiding strikeouts, as measured by their strikeout percentage, or from facing teams that don't strike out much against both of his favorite whiff pitches.

When he struck out a lot of Tigers' and Athletics' batters, he did so by inducing them to swing at a higher percentage of his two-strike pitches out of the zone.

In order to exceed five strikeouts today, he'll have to get to face a team that is likely to swing-and-miss at the two pitches with which he most wants to earn strikeouts.

Bieber's Curveball and Slider

Primarily, Bieber accrues strikeouts with his curveball and slider.

Bieber is primed to strike out a lot of batters tonight because the Cardinals have the fourth-highest total of swinging strikes against the slider from righties. and likewise the fourth-highest swinging strike total against the curveball from righties.

He often throws either his curveball or slider with two strikes, so he'll generate a lot of strikeouts by emphasizing these two pitches today.

Best Bet: Shane Bieber over 5.5 strikeouts at +108 with Caesars

San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 8:10 p.m. ET at American Family Field in Milwaukee

Milwaukee's Freddy Peralta

Freddy Peralta starts for the Brewers today.

The over/under for Peralta's earned runs allowed is 1.5.

This total would only seem high if you focus on two things that you should not focus on.

One such thing is his most recent starts.

Peralta's most recent starts were poor because they were terrible situations or matchups for him.

Two starts ago, he ran into a Cardinals' team whose lineup was sizzling.

Most recently, he faced Tampa Bay's lineup, which ranks second in runs per game.

Neither of these factors applies to his opponent today: San Francisco's lineup is not particularly hot -- relevantly to this bet, it has been slow-starting in its most recent games.

Moreover, the Giants' lineup is not challenging. San Francisco ranks 20th in runs per game.

Home vs. Away

The second thing that you should not focus on is Peralta's ERA.

His ERA is as high as it is because a pitcher's ERA also accounts for his performances on the road.

But Peralta is a completely different pitcher in front of the Brewers' faithful.

Whereas his road ERA is 6.45, he yields a 2.43 ERA at home.

In three of his five starts, he has allowed one earned run or fewer at home.

When he allowed two earned runs at home to Detroit, he yielded a 1.11 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), which reflects how superbly he actually performed.

In his most recent home start, he allowed one run in six innings to a Dodgers' team that could hardly have matched up better against him on paper.

Especially at plus money, the "under" is extremely attractive and reasonable.

Best Bet: Freddy Peralta under 1.5 earned runs at +120 with BetMGM

Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, May 26, 2023 at 9:38 p.m. ET at Angel Stadium in Anaheim

Angels' Reid Detmers

Reid Detmers starts for Los Angeles tonight.

The over/under for his earned runs allowed is 1.5.

The "over" must be an automatic play because it is clear from his results this season that this total is too low.

In not a single start this season has he allowed fewer than two earned runs.

This fact is telling because he has had the chance to stay under two earned runs allowed against bad lineups and against teams that match up very poorly against him.

For example, he failed to stay under two earned runs against both the Guardians and the Royals, two teams that rank bottom-five in runs per game.

Detmers is a lefty, and the Guardians even rank last in slugging against lefties.

He simply lacks the quality in his arsenal to be a pitcher who can reliably allow as little as one or zero earned runs.

In particular, he struggles to locate his fastball, which is one of the pitches that he throws most often.

Heat maps show that he makes many mistakes with its location, with the consequence that opponents hit .298 and slug .447 against it.

The Matchup

A southpaw, Detmers throws primarily a fastball, slider, and curveball.

These three pitches account for about 96 percent of his pitches.

Miami's lineup will thrive tonight because it ranks sixth against Detmers' favorite pitches from lefties.

So, Detmers won't come close to allowing fewer two earned runs tonight.

This extra fact about the matchup makes the chalk worthwhile, although if the chalk bothers you, then you can simply reduce your wager size a bit.

Best Bet: Detmers over 1.5 earned runs at -182 with BetMGM
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I have grave doubts about Bieber strikeout total @2daBank

Bieber K rate down this year corresponding with his continual drop in slider velocity. Only exceeded four strikeouts in two games, although he had a game where he struck out 4 in 4.2 innings.

His slider is still effective, as is his curveball, so he can make good use of both pitches. But Cards can also hit his cutter really hard, so not too sure how many two-strike chances Bieber gets and if he doesn't throw his fastball with two strikes.
Peralta seems worth a smallish shot at +120. Detmers a smaller-sized wager just because -182 is awful. He should easily allow 3+
Should just find something else you like and parlay Detmers with 2-3 others, great parlay partner. Hard to lay -180 against the Fish coming down from the Coors high.