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Fight Night 195 or Vegas 40

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Weak card, but a couple interesting old vets in Miller and Arlovski adding to their huge resume's.

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...eeked out another small winning day again last week with shit finish after 7-1 start.

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
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Preliminary Card

  • Carnelossi Decision ...Coming off of a long suspension for PEDs, who knows what version of Nunes we get today? Based on previous performances, Nunes’ preference to keep the fight standing will play into Carnelossi’s hands. Showcasing her heart and recovery against Na Liang, Carnelossi is the fresher fighter and should be backed to walk down Nunes. 1634413709937.png
  • Batgerel and over ...Despite a slight frame for the weight class, Batgerel wades into the pocket and aims to out-trade opponents through physical superiority. Davis’ defensive movement is not slick enough to keep the fight on the outside, and as long as Batgerel keeps the American’s attention away from wrestling, I’m backing the Mongolian to extend his streak to three fights.
  • Godinez ...Sacrificing 8″ of reach and 4″ in height, Godinez’s frame will once again prove an issue as has been frequent throughout her career. The speedy return may benefit Godinez, coming off a submission win last weekend. Carolina, as the naturally stronger fighter and preference for straight shots both create a stylistic nightmare for Godinez. The Brazilian hasn’t yet shown the maturity to dictate the terms of a fight, however.
  • Emeev and over ...The great frustrator, Ramazan Emeev, is one of the names on the roster who draws almost zero fanfare. Although Emeev is starting to hit a ceiling as he ramps up the quality of his opposition, his grinding technical style should be enough to take away Roberts’ early sting. If Emeev cannot close the distance, Roberts will out-work the Russian with ease, but the Brit lacks the elite footwork to keep himself off the cage.
  • Silva KO ...The aggressive volume of Sanchez has been somewhat reeled in behind more calculated footwork and shot selection. With less strain on the gas tank, Sanchez represents a greater threat in the later rounds – least not on the mat with an underrated submission game. The same mental failings will continue, however, often losing confidence in his ability when closing out fights. Although Silva struggles to find a rhythm throughout fights, his power is the greatest equalizer.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[0-0 +0u]
  • 3/2.26 ARIANE CARNELOSSI -133
  • 2/3.00 ARIANE CARNELOSSI DEC/TECH DEC +150
  • 4/1.31 RAMAZAN EMEEV -305
  • 2/1.10 DANNY ROBERTS vs RAMAZAN EMEEV over 2½ -182

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Next and Emeev from earlier post

[2-2 -0.58u]
  • 2/0.96 LUPITA GODINEZ (W) -209
  • 4/1.31 RAMAZAN EMEEV -305
  • 2/1.10 DANNY ROBERTS vs RAMAZAN EMEEV over 2½ -182

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[3-4 -5.48u]
  • 3/2.04 BRUNO SILVA -147
  • 3/3.60 BRUNO SILVA INSIDE DISTANCE +120
Piss poor decision right there, fight was close but no way should it have been 30-27

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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
UFC Fight Night 195: Main Card
  • Klein ITD and under ...With Landwehr almost
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    certainly bull-rushing his way forward for the entirety of the fight, Klein’s early body kicks should pay huge dividends. Against an opponent who never moves off of the center-line, Klein can also fire his front kick through the middle and sleep, Landwehr. It would take Landwehr falling upon his wrestling chops on Saturday to find success, especially when considering his chin’s failures at the UFC level.
  • Fiorot Decision ...With both women preferring to bully opponents on the basis of their size, this could result in the ugliest fight of the night. Fiorot won’t be allowed the time or space to pick single head kicks or her awkward angled jab. Likewise, Silva won’t be able to brute force her opponent to the mat – having achieved zero takedowns throughout her UFC tenure. Silva’s chin should be able to hold up to Fiorot’s pressure, but it will be difficult for the Brazilian to showcase enough work on the feet to secure rounds.
  • Miller Sub early ...It is never re-assuring backing a fighter who essentially represents a one-round threat, but Miller’s experience and elite submission arsenal should gel with Gonzalez’s forward pressure. Humberto Bandenay, Rafa Garcia and Andres Quintana all out-wrestled Gonzalez. If Gonzalez attempts to fly out of the block and make a statement early, Miller will be more than willing to latch onto a limb and cash out early.
  • Arlovski ...I fail to see how this could be anything other than a boring Arlovski clinic. There is no denying that Arlovski is athletically shot, but his technical transformation and chin renaissance has seen the Belarussian emerge as the sternest gatekeeper a HW could meet. Educated counter-striking and strong TDD keeps Arlovksi dangerous into the twilight of his twilight. Felipe is utterly average, however, his focus on the body at least creates an interesting dynamic. Arlovksi often blocks most of the work targeted at his head, but his body rarely is defended with similar gusto. Body straights, liver shots and most importantly, single body jabs, will all frustrate Arlovski into opening up.
  • Dumont likely by decision and over ...Dumont’s success at range is based around decent distance control and slick defensive movement. Ladd’s willingness to throw volume and subsequent tendency to walk into hard shots will create regular opportunities for the Brazilian to land. Dumont’s overreliance on the jab to set up counters may find her losing early trades, however, as Ladd often forgoes the jab in favor of harder single shots. If Ladd approaches the fight with a clear game plan to get this to the mat, she has a solid chance of ending this before the final bell. Ladd’s flurries from the top position could force the ref to intervene, even when many shots are tagging the guard. Ladd’s lead hook may drop Dumont, or at least earn the Brazilian’s respect at some point.
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[5-4 +0.16u]
  • 3/2.07 LUDOVIT KLEIN INSIDE DISTANCE -145
  • 2/1.41 NATE LANDWEHR vs LUDOVIT KLEIN u2½ -142
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[6-5 -1.43u]
  • 2/1.74 FIOROT FIGHT DOES THE 3 RD DISTANCE -115
  • 1.21/2 MANON FIOROT BY 3 RD DECISION +165
  • 3/4.05 JIM MILLER KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +135
 

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[9-5 +6.36u]
  • 1/1.13 NORMA DUMONT (W) +113
  • 1/1.22 NORMA DUMONT (W) vs ASPEN LADD over 4½ +122
I like the PitBull a bit but I'm gonna lay off as I've backed Felipe several times for paydays
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mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Finally...a nice night. Figures it happens on one of the shittiest cards of the year, but wtf...it all pays the same! :claphands:

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