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ESPN Handicappers Picks--Week 4

Card is QB. Ewers dressed last week as well so guessing he plays next weekend but for sure vs. OU. Expecting a big game from Bijan tomorrow. Best thing for the Horns is that this is a day game. Weird things happen at night in Lubbock.

I saw bijan rush td -185, he always makes it into a prop parlay., kinda surprised they leave him at just 1 to cash, they put some the other stud backs at 1.5. Him and Michigan kid corum will be the main 2 then I’ll have a assortment of different players built off them.
 
I like what Colin been doing this year. Back to playing a lot more dogs, like he used to in his really good years, instead of taking a bunch of favs and saying he normally likes dogs like he did most of last year! (I actually know the feeling as I’ve been playing way more ncaa favs than I typically ever do the last 2 weeks, this what I get for mocking him with that phrase! Lol).
 
Great get with that gopher line @TahoeLegend , Mfers all way up to -3 now! That crazy cause I think sparty the popular side despite losing last week. I think gophers can really cause sparty defense problems with the rpo game, sparty linebackers seem suspect as hell! I do wish Autem-bell was playing for gophers, him being out hurts I think.
 
Great get with that gopher line @TahoeLegend , Mfers all way up to -3 now! That crazy cause I think sparty the popular side despite losing last week. I think gophers can really cause sparty defense problems with the rpo game, sparty linebackers seem suspect as hell! I do wish Autem-bell was playing for gophers, him being out hurts I think.
Agree. I didn't know he was out when I took Minn. I bet the Minn defense and running game, but having that guy as a threat would have helped the running game.
 
Maybe stanford/udub over is better than playing trees? I don’t think trees defense is gonna put up a lot of resistance to huskies passing game which on fire, def feel like trees path to covering is them scoring a lot of points, they probably need 28 for me to feel good with the +14!! Trees team total is 23.5, they have to clear that to have any shot imo.
 
Can tech stop Bijan? they havnt really faced a strong rushing team, houston had a kid avg 4.9 a carry, ncst didbt run it very well but that nothing new. I have no clue if tech capable of stopping Robinson or not? I’ll def have him to score a rushing td in a parlay or 2!
Tech has done well against the run--top 20 in rush defense--but they haven't played a running team yet ( Houston has a damn good RB, but he was hurt all the time last year and hasn't played at all this year). They look like they are respectable on D to me and I think the new coach is going to be successful in the long run

I just haven't seen any athletes for them who are on the Texas level and they have to pass the ball to beat Texas. I didn't see anything out of that second string QB against NC St that made me think he can throw with success against Texas

I'm still pondering, but if I take that game it will be Texas
 
Tech has done well against the run--top 20 in rush defense--but they haven't played a running team yet ( Houston has a damn good RB, but he was hurt all the time last year and hasn't played at all this year). They look like they are respectable on D to me and I think the new coach is going to be successful in the long run

I just haven't seen any athletes for them who are on the Texas level and they have to pass the ball to beat Texas. I didn't see anything out of that second string QB against NC St that made me think he can throw with success against Texas

I'm still pondering, but if I take that game it will be Texas

The tech qb has talent, he also a mistake waiting to happen. It hard for me to spin the ncst game as “if only they didn’t turn it over tech could have won, covered at least” when he threw 3 ints vs houston also!! He can sling it but he takes way too many chances. Houston a shell, I thought the rb was gone? He def not playing. They had a different kid go 16 for 78 but they were behind and had to throw.
 
The tech qb has talent, he also a mistake waiting to happen. It hard for me to spin the ncst game as “if only they didn’t turn it over tech could have won, covered at least” when he threw 3 ints vs houston also!! He can sling it but he takes way too many chances. Houston a shell, I thought the rb was gone? He def not playing. They had a different kid go 16 for 78 but they were behind and had to throw.
McCaskill is the kid who was so good. He was hurt in the spring and is out for the year. He's a spectacular talent and got almost 1,000 yards as a freshman, but was hurt over and over.

Bama had a hard time passing against Texas and I haven't see anything out of the Tech kid to make me think he can.
 
How about these games tonight? Anyone see anything worth betting? I don't see anything in any of the three dogs that inspires confidence and I can see why the spreads are so high in all three games

You're the ACC guru, 2daBank, Can Syracuse handle that kind of spread?

The one that looks most likely to me is Boise State.

Anyone betting any of the three games?
 
If you have followed Mizzou the last three years I don't understand how you could bet them to cover on the road to anyone. They beat two crap teams at home but gave up points to both and got crushed by Kstate on the road. They are just dreaming that Drinks team will play a great game on the road... LOL check the record.
 
How about these games tonight? Anyone see anything worth betting? I don't see anything in any of the three dogs that inspires confidence and I can see why the spreads are so high in all three games

You're the ACC guru, 2daBank, Can Syracuse handle that kind of spread?

The one that looks most likely to me is Boise State.

Anyone betting any of the three games?

That spread is tough man. Interesting how cuse brought in uva OC and he has turned Shrader into a more than respectable passer and Armstrong now looks like Shrader used to not even completing 50% his passes! I feel like you can pass on cuse, Purdue all but proved that carving cuse up that entire game, if we were talking uva offense of last year I’d be interested but they don’t look anything the same, maybe seeing their former oc tonight will inspire them? Kinda odd the line has went down under -10 w everyone on cuse! The i thing I feel pretty confident about is Cuse offense should get whatever they want, I’d think oc Anea will have a special desire to light up his former team and should know just how to dial it up against that d!! I like cuse team total over 31.5, feel more confident in that and not real sure what we get from uva offense? I lean to thinking Armstrong and co play better tonight and hang around but I have no desire to back them. I think game goes over 54 but I just trust cuse to do their part more so than worrying bout what uva brings.
 
Added the ML Dog Pickers. Rutgers, Arkansas, Duke, Washington State are all named by two or more of them

Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-3) (1-8) 2021 (17-23)
Arkansas
Rutgers
Wash State

Bill Trocci—(1-2) (1-8) 2021 (16-23)
Wash State
Arizona
Rutgers

Mike DeCourcy—(1-2) 3-6) 2021 (15-24)
Indiana
Rutgers
Duke

Bill Bender—(1-2) (4-5) 2021 (9-30)
Arkansas
Baylor
Duke
 
Added the ML Dog Pickers. Rutgers, Arkansas, Duke, Washington State are all named by two or more of them

Zac Al-Khateeb—(0-3) (1-8) 2021 (17-23)
Arkansas
Rutgers
Wash State

Bill Trocci—(1-2) (1-8) 2021 (16-23)
Wash State
Arizona
Rutgers

Mike DeCourcy—(1-2) 3-6) 2021 (15-24)
Indiana
Rutgers
Duke

Bill Bender—(1-2) (4-5) 2021 (9-30)
Arkansas
Baylor
Duke

Damn, I feel like the dogs less named do better than the ones folks like. Arkansas is painfully obvious, who doesn’t like them? I know I do but just the fact they sitting there as dogs doesn’t feel right to me.
 
That spread is tough man. Interesting how cuse brought in uva OC and he has turned Shrader into a more than respectable passer and Armstrong now looks like Shrader used to not even completing 50% his passes! I feel like you can pass on cuse, Purdue all but proved that carving cuse up that entire game, if we were talking uva offense of last year I’d be interested but they don’t look anything the same, maybe seeing their former oc tonight will inspire them? Kinda odd the line has went down under -10 w everyone on cuse! The i thing I feel pretty confident about is Cuse offense should get whatever they want, I’d think oc Anea will have a special desire to light up his former team and should know just how to dial it up against that d!! I like cuse team total over 31.5, feel more confident in that and not real sure what we get from uva offense? I lean to thinking Armstrong and co play better tonight and hang around but I have no desire to back them. I think game goes over 54 but I just trust cuse to do their part more so than worrying bout what uva brings.
It's amazing to me to see the drop in offense at Virginia from last year to this year. I figured it was because the new coach was real conservative. Hadn't thought about the change at OC, but whatever it is, Armstrong is a shell of his former self. I was looking at the game over, but you may be right that the Cuse TT over is the better bet.

Any thoughts on Boise St/UTEP?
 
It's amazing to me to see the drop in offense at Virginia from last year to this year. I figured it was because the new coach was real conservative. Hadn't thought about the change at OC, but whatever it is, Armstrong is a shell of his former self. I was looking at the game over, but you may be right that the Cuse TT over is the better bet.

Any thoughts on Boise St/UTEP?

I have no problem w game over either, I’m just more confident in what we get from cuse. I honestly have no clue what uva offense looks like and cuse d been so stingy in red zone just feel better w them, don’t think it going over without cuse hitting 34ish anyways. I just realized this week the cuse OC I been gushing about improving the passing game actually came from uva where he been last 5 years. Last year Shrader looked like Armstrong playing this year! Now Shrader playing great and Armstrong looks like Shrader did!! Coaching matters! Lol,

You know I’m a huge boise hater last few years, mostly cause I think Bachmeyer is awful but not like the team does him any favors, they generally give him no support w a run game and often have him under pressure (some his fault, some not). I just don’t have any faith in utep to take advantage, jeez that total is 44?? Lol, that pretty much says it all! There no way I could lay 16/17 points on a total that low! Can utep score a few times? I’m not sure, I have my doubts boise scores more than their 30.5 team total tho.
 
If you think utep can score 2tds my guess that enough to cover. Think 10 and it be awful close. Boise scoring 27 seems bout right to me.
 
If you think utep can score 2tds my guess that enough to cover. Think 10 and it be awful close. Boise scoring 27 seems bout right to me.
I don't have any real feel for the game and wouldn't even bother with it except it's one of the few Friday night games.

UTEP kept fighting a moved the ball a little against Oklahoma and against Fresno State in the bowl game and I think Boise can score around 30 so was thinking of the over. I will probably pass on it. It's never a good idea to try and force a bet just because it's a week night game, but it's hard for me to hold my discipline.
 
I don't have any real feel for the game and wouldn't even bother with it except it's one of the few Friday night games.

UTEP kept fighting a moved the ball a little against Oklahoma and against Fresno State in the bowl game and I think Boise can score around 30 so was thinking of the over. I will probably pass on it. It's never a good idea to try and force a bet just because it's a week night game, but it's hard for me to hold my discipline.

You prob win a lot more mid 40s overs than lose in ncaa. Just a guess but feels like lot those low totals find their way over. I honestly didn’t even look at it till you asked, def a easy pass for me. I do think if you like utep to score a few tds they not a bad bet, long as they don’t turn it over and give boise short fields I really don’t think they score more than 30.
 
I don't get all the love for Oregon State either. I understand the theory--this has been a good bet at times over the years because USC always has better players and never gets up for Oregon State. But this USC team is not a team to go against. They can come out flat like they did against Fresno State and still put 50 on the board. Williams is the best QB in the country and Mario Williams is the best receiver so far this season. But I'm in the minority on this and it's a very small minority

88% of the money so far is on Oregon State. Three times more money on Oregon State than on any other college team so far this season and more than 29 of the NFL teams. It is the ultimate sharp play of the year according to Daily Wager. I haven't seen +7 anywhere and all I see now is +5x.

I'd rather lay the 5x than go against USC if I had to play it, but I'll likely pass. Maybe play the USC team total
You know I was thinking about this too. I bet back on USC -5.5. Agree with your comments, in part and do not like the public dog angle one bit

I never saw a +7 either
 
Card is QB. Ewers dressed last week as well so guessing he plays next weekend but for sure vs. OU. Expecting a big game from Bijan tomorrow. Best thing for the Horns is that this is a day game. Weird things happen at night in Lubbock.
Correct sir
 
How about these games tonight? Anyone see anything worth betting? I don't see anything in any of the three dogs that inspires confidence and I can see why the spreads are so high in all three games

You're the ACC guru, 2daBank, Can Syracuse handle that kind of spread?

The one that looks most likely to me is Boise State.

Anyone betting any of the three games?
I am probably going to take Air Force 1H -14. Nevada is bad. AF did look bad vs Wyoming. Like betting on the Acadamies against bad teams
 
I started years ago, and this is bad reasoning I know, but I DO NOT BET AGST BAYLOR

I’d be better off never touching them either way cause I seem to always be wrong on them! Just one those teams for me, I’d sure as shit bet them here as dogs, isu been pretty awful in games w short lines (coin flip type games) and I think bears better so isu probably the play! Lol
 
Added Stanford Steve's Best Bet:

Kansas -7

Damn. Fuck him! Dunno how ya lay points w that defense? I like ku coach and what he doing there as well but playing them as dogs way easier than laying a td to another team w a new coach who off to a strong start!
 
How about these games tonight? Anyone see anything worth betting? I don't see anything in any of the three dogs that inspires confidence and I can see why the spreads are so high in all three games

You're the ACC guru, 2daBank, Can Syracuse handle that kind of spread?

The one that looks most likely to me is Boise State.

Anyone betting any of the three games?
Like Boise State
 
Passed on all the Fri night games. Good thing because I would have gone 1-2

Still strong lean to Arkansas and another unit or two on Oklahoma, lean Wash State, Houston/Rice over. Texas, Utah. I'm dying to bet something on the Tenn/Fla game, but can't see anything there that's better than random chance.

I'll add the Arkansas and Oklahoma units for sure if I can get even a little better than I see now.

Good luck everyone, I'll take another look tomorrow. Maybe I'll see something I don't see now
 
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Passed on all the Fri night games. Good thing because I would have gone 1-2

Still strong lean to Arkansas and another unit or two on Oklahoma, lean Wash State, Houston/Rice over. Texas, Utah. I'm dying to bet something on the Tenn/Fla game, but can't see anything there that's better than random chance.

I'll add the Arkansas and Oklahoma units for sure if I can get even a little better than I see now.

Good luck everyone, I'll take another

I shoulda played more instead the only loser! Freaking cuse offense looked awful. Boise was even worse than I give them credit for being!
 
Added Phil Steele Picks. I see a lot of respectable handicappers taking Indiana and Kansas/duke has split the good handicappers more than any game I can remember. Lots of good pickers on both sides of that one:

ULL -9
Utah State +3
Northern Iowa -13
Michigan -17
Indiana +17
Duke +7x
 
I shoulda played more instead the only loser! Freaking cuse offense looked awful. Boise was even worse than I give them credit for being!
That one surprised me. After watching UTEP I thought they could make a good showing, but I thought Boise would make a lot better one than they did. You may be right about that QB for Boise.

Virginia and Syracuse both looked like they were sub-par. I can't understand what happened to Dino Babers. In the MAC he ran the Baylor offense like it was a machine. His first few years at Syracuse, same thing. An unstoppable offense was his identity. Now he seems to have changed to a pedestrian offense that struggles all the time
 
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3 of the top 6 have an Oregon State pick. That is worrisome I think. 1 of the D league has a USC TT Ov

Man, it is going to be really hard for Oregon State. They can do it, but it's going to take a huge effort and some things we haven't seen often out of the USC O so far. Oregon St DBs are pretty decent, but the way the SC O has operated, I don't think it matters so much who is playing on D, USC is going to have to have to slow themselves as well = an off game. Line down to 5.5 now? Damn.
 
Don't like when I haven't been following along all week, a lot to get caught up on.

The back up playing for Texas Tech is Donovan Smith. While he was not the starter to begin this year and is playing now due to injury of Slough, Smith started for half the season last year. He is up and down - as in, he can be the reason why Texas Tech wins a game(s), or he can be the reason they lose them.
 
The Bear—4-3 (8-6) 2020-21 Total (61-65)
(Bank Picks 6-3)

Ohio State -18x
Texas Tech +6x
N Mexico St +4x
N Illinois +26x
UConn +38x
Iowa -7x
When it's time for scoring results, note that N Mexico St would've been -4x
 
Regarding TCU - SMU, you guys who list to the talkers, has there been much discussion about Dykes in this game? Everyone was pretty pissed not just that he left SMU, but the fact he went to hated rival SMU! I heard him say one time that he didn't know the backlash would be so hard when he made the choice to go to TCU. As in, he knew the rivalry, but he didn't know some of his close friends would turn their back on him over it. It's going to be pretty big game there in Dallas.
 
Regarding TCU - SMU, you guys who list to the talkers, has there been much discussion about Dykes in this game? Everyone was pretty pissed not just that he left SMU, but the fact he went to hated rival SMU! I heard him say one time that he didn't know the backlash would be so hard when he made the choice to go to TCU. As in, he knew the rivalry, but he didn't know some of his close friends would turn their back on him over it. It's going to be pretty big game there in Dallas.

I havnt heard much made about it which I found weird cause it def the biggest thing that worries me bout tcu.
 
I think if you back TCU you are just backing potential, right? Beat Colorado badly, which everyone does, then beat Tarteton State and bye week. Is TCU good? Don't know, haven't seen it. At least we saw SMU at Maryland and SMU was probably the better team there.
 
I think if you back TCU you are just backing potential, right? Beat Colorado badly, which everyone does, then beat Tarteton State and bye week. Is TCU good? Don't know, haven't seen it. At least we saw SMU at Maryland and SMU was probably the better team there.

How much do we really think of the Terps tho? Obviously tcu hasn’t played anyone to tell us much, they didn’t even look particularly great against Colorado till the 2nd half. They have a ton of talent tho and you would expect the offense to get better and better under Dykes. They got a week off for him to prepare his new team for a team his knows really well, that feels like a advantage to me. I like that smu has won the last couple, I’d think that balances out the intensity level.
 
Really tcu/smu comes down to me I have no doubt both offenses can score, the total screams that. I just think dykes inherited more talent on the defensive side than smu working with, they obviously learning a new system so there be growing pains but think the potential on that side of the ball much greater than it is for smu.
 
Dykes and defense, now that is something you don't often here.

I do think the fact that SMU has won the last two is a TCU angle. Not sure when the last time the ponies would've won 3 straight vs them.
 
Dykes and defense, now that is something you don't often here.

I do think the fact that SMU has won the last two is a TCU angle. Not sure when the last time the ponies would've won 3 straight vs them.

Fair, not like he has much of anything to do w that side the ball. That why I think he in a bit of a unique situation here cause he inheriting a team who last coach recruited defense! I think tcu has quite a bit of talent in their secondary, whether it helps them stop smu I dunno but it can’t hurt.

I havnt heard hardly anyone banging the drum for smu tho, that always makes me nervous.
 
Either way, very interesting game and one of the best matchups to watch out there today.
 
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